Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

Having physical PMs (less that 5-10% of your investment portfolio) in one's possession should not be considered speculative plays at all, nor even expect to keep up with inflation (because the PM market is rigged by the Central Banks).

Physical PMs are simply a hedge or insurance against the entire global financial system melting down for good. It may never happen. But if it did, then yes in the short term, there will be chaos. There will be riots, looting, and violence. There will be shortages of food, supplies, other goods, medicines, etc. In the short term there will be FAR more to care or worry about than having gold or silver. Land would of course be useful in such a scenario.

However, during such an event, the Fed and the governments of the world will try to move quickly to re-establish a new financial system, and any new fiat system they create will be reset against Gold and Silver once again. Meaning that the fiat price of Gold and Silver will be reset overnight to 20X-30X or more of where it is today, possibly even higher. So it would be wise to have some anyway. If the financial collapse never happens in your lifetime, then pass it along to your offspring so that it might one day protect them.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

About buying land, location matters, though. Nice land close to the beach in South Florida is worth millions, until it's under water and worth nothing. Apparently it's becoming difficult to insure beach properties.

[cAPSLOCK]

Having physical PMs (less that 5-10%) in one's possession should not be considered speculative plays at all, nor even expect to keep up with inflation (because the PM market is rigged by the Central Banks).

Physical PMs are simply a hedge against the entire global financial system melting down for good. It may never happen. But if it did, then yes in the short term, there will be chaos. There will be riots. There will be shortages of food, supplies, other goods, etc. In the short term there will be FAR more to care or worry about than having gold or silver. Land would of course be useful in such a scenario.

However, during such an event, the Fed and the governments of the world will try to move quickly to re-establish a new financial system, and any new fiat system they create will be reset against Gold and Silver once again. Meaning that the fiat price of Gold and Silver will be reset to 20X-30X or more of where it is today, possibly even higher. So it would be wise to have some anyway. If the financial collapse never happens in your lifetime, then pass it along to your offspring.

Exactly.  It is, and has been for a LONG TIME a hedge, not an "investment".

I think for sure we are ripe to see some sort of financial collapse.  There is a lot of nuance as to what the "Elites" are currently trying to do.  They are orchestrating this take down, while they give us our bread and circuses in Ukraine and dividing us to keep us going in circles.

And every now and then they tip their hand...

“We need to frame bitcoin globally because, you know… if there’s a loophole, that loophole will be used. Global cooperation is absolutely necessary. It could be initialized first at the G7, then at the G20. “

Loophole to/from what?  She was not talking about darknet markets, or taxes.

She was talking about a way out of the cattle call they have been planning for decades and are executing NOW.

In the end it really is a curse to be able to see what is happening but have no way to stop it, or even wake up a SINGLE ONE of the sleepers around us.  Ah well...  I have a decent chair to sit in for the watching.

[Torque]

About buying land, location matters, though. Nice land close to the beach in South Florida is worth millions, until it's under water and worth nothing. Apparently it's becoming difficult to insure beach properties.

You also can't grow food or raise livestock in the sand.

[ivomm]

Saying: "The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets."

Torque's translation: The best time to buy is when market participants have majorly deleveraged. Because at the low deleverage point, the market price is showing it's closer to fair value. Don't wait to buy when the market participants decide to leverage up 100X or 500X again during another bull run. The price will be much higher, but you won't know what the fair market value is.

Since the introduction of the derivates in BTCitcoin world a lot has changed. Before that it was enough to buy certain amount and the price increased and stayed for weeks and months. In the last 4-5 years may be thousands jumps were followed by an immediate drop to the previous level and in most cases below. This is the effect of the leverage >10x. Not only that, but leverage above 50x attracted the worst type of gamblers who lose all their fiat savings each month. It doesn't matter whether we are in a bull or bear market and what is the price - at the end of each month these gamblers build billions of high leverage longs on Binance and other exchanges. The real non leverage buying can't support the profit of them all, so a domino like effect liquidates all these longs. Of course, when the next big bull run starts they will not bring ithe price back for a long time and some of them will finally realize one successful trade. But it will be 0.00001% of their initial fiat savings. Whereas, the hodlers who DCA disregarding the price will enjoy another 10x increase of their last cycle average buying price in just few years.

So, there is no need to try to time the bottom of some local bear period. Here however lies some obvious obstacle to all these peeps who have bigger amount of fiat. Their reasoning is "if I enter now and the price falls, say 50%, I will be mad. Moreover, I'll have to wait several years to realize some profit. So it is better to wait to be certain that we are in a bull market and buy then. Or buy some "perspective" altcoins which are cheap now but will certainly go 10-100x up in few months." These peeps have very low IQ, because they don't see many obvious mistakes. First of all, for a gazillionth time, any altcoin is a shitcoin which can go to 0 and only the insiders profit from these pump and dump schemes. Second, is it so hard to divide the fiat savings in 2-3 or 4 parts and in case the price crashes after the first buying, make the next and so on? After all, BTCitcoin in all its bear cycles did on average 2-2.5 ~50% crashes in a row. This is so obvious and I will never cease to be amazed how mindrust who was 1:3 in favor of fiat savings panicked and sold at 4K. May be his belief in authorities and lack of self confidence/mind was the reason why he didn't plan for this and was caught by surprise. So, in case someone has a bigger amound of fiat and is hesitant what to do - he should disregard all beliefs and authorities and be prepared with fiat for at least 2  ~50% crashes in a row since the last ATH. Regarding the regular paycheck income - it is best to buy immediately as if he receives his salary in BTC.

[JayJuanGee]

All this drama and garbage surrounding LUNA and TerraUST, meanwhile exactly zero people can explain to me the purpose, utility or usefulness of either one. Especially when other solutions already exist.

Waiting for Do Kwon himself to come in here and debate me on his garbage coins.

Because he would lose that debate soundly.

The emperor has no clothes, and his size is not size.

Personally I had never even heard of them until the crash. And I have looked at stablecoins recently to use in trading instead of fiat to simplify tax declarations. I chose USDC, seemed better than USDT. Both are backed by fiat on bank accounts (supposedly...).

An "algorithmic" stablecoin makes no sense, and one that is part of an "environment" with another coin that gives interest makes even less sense.

USDT = Tether

UST - Terracoin

Not sure if you were overlapping this matter?

No I'm clear on that. Except when the crash happened, at first I thought it was about USDT indeed, since I didn't know UST existed.

I chose USDC because I believed some of the FUD about USDT, I guess.

Fair enough.

We should realize that USDT has been the leader in the "stable coin" space since about 2014 because when it first started no other similar project existed, but it has been under various kinds of informational and even direct attack of one of the institutions stealing its money (perhaps even the USGovt involved), regulatory attack (that resulted in a pretty BIG settlement), and it seems to me that USDT has remained pretty damned resilient through all of these matters, yet surely it is not likely to be as much of a rebellious project as it had been in the beginning so they have been forced into a certain amount of compliance and maybe even compromise that allowed them to come to a settlement with the NY state prosecution.. likely the Feds have some involvement too... but who knows? 

I would imagine that USDC and some of the other later copy cat stable coins started out with various kinds of US Govt blessings -including reporting requirements.. so don't be expecting hardly any privacy with that kind of a coin.. or even expectation that it might not get frozen... and surely, there can be questions regarding whether one project or another is solvent or not.. and you would think that the USDC has higher levels of solvency safeguards than something like the USDT that has a bit more of a renegade history.

I do understand that sometimes we might end up devolving into off-topicness when talking about some of these various stable coins, and they likely are not even necessarily long term holds for members but just ways to balance BTC versus USD exposures when trading for figuring out how much to allocate into BTC.. and whether some of the allocations might go up or down during BTC price moves - perhaps even with some guys wanting to ongoingly ensure that their BTC balance is going up, but once you get to a certain level of wealth (that might be measured in the dollar equivalencies even if a decent portion is held in BTC), then there might not be a need to continue to feel that your BTC amount has to keep going up on an ongoing basis. 

Guys are at different points in this journey, but they also have differing philosophies as well.  So, for example, Michael Saylor seems to have a philosophy to continue to increase his BTC holdings on an ongoing basis, and there are other guys who would consider that at a certain point, he should feel that he has enough BTC... so part of the reason that I am o.k. with the idea of making initial allocations into BTC that could range anywhere between 1% and 25%, and maybe in the early stages of investing it might not be any kind of problem to stay within an allocation that you have chosen within that range - but then there are certain points in time in which BTC prices do a kind of step up... and then all of a sudden your allocation into BTC might have gone up somewhere between 3x to 10x (as started in September 2020 whether measuring from a $3k to $6k base or a more conservative $10k base ), or 25x (as might be considered the overall BTC price move starting in 2013 that went up from a base of $10 more than 100x.. but then settled back down in the mid-$200s).. or 8x-12x (as might be considered the overall BTC price move starting in 2016 that went up from a base of $500-ish - or lower - and went up more than 40x.. but then settled back down in the $4k to $6k price arena).

Part of my point is that from time to time, the BTC does a kind of step up in price, that ends up positively affecting the amount of allocation that any mostly BTC HODLer has in his/her investment portfolio, and then s/he is faced with questions of both whether to reallocate, and if so how much to reallocate - and part of those considerations are going to be accounting for dollar value - or maybe whether a guys  might have philosophies to just keep accumulating BTC... To me, it seems that it is more practical to balance concerns, and surely at a certain point there would not necessarily be needs to keep building BTC amounts.. but I concede that guys have differing ways to balance their motives and what makes them comfortable.

[Torque]

Saying: "The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets."

Torque's translation: The best time to buy is when market participants have majorly deleveraged. Because at the low deleverage point, the market price is showing it's closer to fair value. Don't wait to buy when the market participants decide to leverage up 100X or 500X again during another bull run. The price will be much higher, but you won't know what the fair market value is.

Since the introduction of the derivates in BTCitcoin world a lot has changed. Before that it was enough to buy certain amount and the price increased and stayed for weeks and months. In the last 4-5 years may be thousands jumps were followed by an immediate drop to the previous level and in most cases below. This is the effect of the leverage >10x. Not only that, but leverage above 50x attracted the worst type of gamblers who lose all their fiat savings each month. It doesn't matter whether we are in a bull or bear market and what is the price - at the end of each month these gamblers build billions of high leverage longs on Binance and other exchanges. The real non leverage buying can't support the profit of them all, so a domino like effect liquidates all these longs. Of course, when the next big bull run starts they will not bring ithe price back for a long time and some of them will finally realize one successful trade. But it will be 0.00001% of their initial fiat savings. Whereas, the hodlers who DCA disregarding the price will enjoy another 10x increase of their last cycle average buying price in just few years.

So, there is no need to try to time the bottom of some local bear period. Here however lies some obvious obstacle to all these peeps who have bigger amount of fiat. Their reasoning is "if I enter now and the price falls, say 50%, I will be mad. Moreover, I'll have to wait several years to realize some profit. So it is better to wait to be certain that we are in a bull market and buy then. Or buy some "perspective" altcoins which are cheap now but will certainly go 10-100x up in few months." These peeps have very low IQ, because they don't see many obvious mistakes. First of all, for a gazillionth time, any altcoin is a shitcoin which can go to 0 and only the insiders profit from these pump and dump schemes. Second, is it so hard to divide the fiat savings in 2-3 or 4 parts and in case the price crashes after the first buying, make the next and so on? After all, BTCitcoin in all its bear cycles did on average 2-2.5 ~50% crashes in a row. This is so obvious and I will never cease to be amazed how mindrust who was 1:3 in favor of fiat savings panicked and sold at 4K. May be his belief in authorities and lack of self confidence/mind was the reason why he didn't plan for this and was caught by surprise. So, in case someone has a bigger amound of fiat and is hesitant what to do - he should disregard all beliefs and authorities and be prepared with fiat for at least 2  ~50% crashes in a row since the last ATH. Regarding the regular paycheck income - it is best to buy immediately as if he receives his salary in BTC.

Another thing that has changed is that the Bitcoin market is now somewhat tied to the NASDAQ price action.

We can bemoan it, or debate the pros and cons of it all day, but it is what it is.

I have no doubt that the stonk market will continue to march upwards long term, so this would be good for Bitcoin as well.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRHzWrWIXog

[dragonvslinux]

Casual retail investors can't get over the fact one BTC is so much money and doesn't return anything. When they see other coins are cheap and give 10% or 20% in "interest", and can rise in price like crazy.

Of course it always ends in tears...

From what I read Luna had limits on what could be printed in a time period, but when things started going wrong they immediately changed the limits, and some hours later they were printing billions of coins a minute, then dozens of billions, it was totally absurd.

Then thousands of trillions.

[JayJuanGee]

The easy solution is to just divest the alts and put it in safe investments like gold, silver, land and...  BITCOIN.

Holy fucking shit cAPSLOCK.  Do you require a bat slappening to get you to snap out of your seeming delusion to depriortize bitcoin in your above list of supposed good investments.

Your thinking seems to be muddled.

Did you forget where you were, brandon? 

hahahahahahaha

......... run to the safety of hard assets like precious metals, real estate and BITCOIN. 

oh my... You did it again...

As usual you are not reading my context.

I read your whole fucking post.

Does not mean that I understood it, though.


hahahahahaha

My point is RETAIL (not the WO thread) is NOT interested in BTC right now. 

You're starting to sound like Torque with broad generalizations about this that or the other.

Not necessarily a bad thing... even though you are likely to get some push back, even if you might be correct.

By the way, my anger had to do with another angle of trying to mention those other lame investments of gold, silver and property as if they were equal in any kind of significant/meaningful way to bitcoin... why didn't you throw equities in there?  who knows?

I will concede that property can really be a decently BIG contender to bitcoin, especially for it's potential unique characteristics, including that it may well be located in a place that you need or want it to be... or it could have some only one house can be located at this place where the mountains meet the rivers meet the ocean meets the city view blah blah blah.. so long as you do not mind some of the potential attack vector and lack of mobility aspects that relate to property, too.... .

yet, we likely realize that way too much monetization of property has already occurred that causes it to currently have/retain way more monetary value/price than its actual utility - including the various ways that debt is rolled through property too in terms of large entities acquiring a lot property as well - so sure the bubble can keep going for a decent amount of time.. .yet property still likely ends up having way more actual value than gold and silver just in terms of some of the ways that it can end up being scarce and even have a bottom in terms of how low it will go even though it does have maintenance costs (some of which can surely be deferred during more trying times).

They have not been since they bought between 13k-20 in 2017, held and lost at least half their money when they got out, or shifted into garbage coins.

There could be some truth in what you are saying, but I would still question some of the broad-brush aspects of the way that you are framing the matter.

Institutional buyers have been filing in over the last 5 years, and some of the smarter one offs.  Billionaires, home offices and the like.

Sure.. seems to be happening somewhat like that... including increased financialization vehicles that allow them to more easily get in.. even though some of them might end up getting overly exposed to third parties when they might well be better off holding more of their own keys, even if they might choose to NOT hold all of their keys.

I would say the average WO denizen is somewhere between 20-80% in Bitcoin.  But the average monkey jppg buyer has less than 5%.

Sure.. could be.

The list I am making saves the best for last and puts it in all caps.  But land and precious metals are also going to be safe havens in the coming storm.  The riskiest of the three is land, with bitcoin coming in second.  Metals are not risky, they are boring and reliable... and may just hold their relative value at best.

Maybe I just don't like how it looks when you write it out like that?

I cannot help myself to get emotional about that presentation style.

I personally have a small cache of silver and gold,

You redundant fuck!!!!

and own my own home. 

Not going to blame anyone for that... .or even owning a few homes and even business, industrial, agricultural property that generates income, too.

I am not going to reverse mortgage my home to buy Bitcoin, and I do not need to.

No problem, either way.. guys can make choices about how to employ debt, even though it might not end up working out for them if they do it in a bad way, but the use of various kinds of debt is surely discretionary which means that hopefully, each of us is going to decide based on adequately considering our individual circumstances.

The rest of your post is good enough including the reference to various scenarios.  I should clarify my moderately bearish up/down/sideways numbers are meant to be interpreted as VERY short term.

Let's not get all lovey-dovey about this.


 

I think right now we are biased to choppy/down scenarios.  But I do not think we go very far down... we are right around the 200DMA currently.   And with a good non trivial chance at going up from here. 

I think that you are referring to the 200-week moving average (which is just below $22k currently).. The 200-day moving average is somewhere around $45k..

Yeah it would seem difficult to stay close to the 200-week moving average for a very long time.. but weird shit like that has happened before.. and surely we cannot always know how much some of varying macro factors or even the desires of battle participants (namely bears) can end up being capable of employing way more ammunition than they should be capable of employing..

We likely do not see these kinds of matters too much differently, even though surely guys can frame the matters in different ways and also attribute likely success of certain battles in different ways too.. including that sometimes actual technical indicators get broken on purpose.. but still might be questionable about the extent to which the break might be sustainable.. and we cannot always be sure if one side or the other might have more ammunition in reserve or if they might be running out of ammunition.

The reason for this is the macro environment is horrifying. Ultimately this makes Bitcoin more valuable.  Bigly so. But maybe not during the next month.

I cannot disagree without making shit up, here.

I will also point out that while you call me dumb over and over, I was here at this forum years before you,

Oh gawd.. I hope you are not trying to pull the rank card.... and yeah.. probably this should just be read as a kind of longevity fact that may or may not be significant in the scheme of things... some people persist with bad ideas for a long time even if they have been studying a subject for a long time.. I am not even talking about you.

Another thing is there are various times that each of us has called the other one dumb, so sometimes those are just negotiation devises - and likely not even about the person, but more about the ideas.. even though sometimes the ideas repeat over and over.. so it is not likely easy to really determine whether they rise to the level of objectively dumb... and surely both you and I likely run more risks of saying dumb things because of lengthy posts and even this particular post of mine is being made quickly because I have an appointment that I need to go to, so I am kind of rushing certain aspects of this response... you dummy (#nohomo).

and I expect also "in bitcoin" then too...  Dumb luck I guess. (It really was... but so was yours )

Well, yeah I came to bitcoin out of a kind of luck too.. In late 2013, I was right in a position that I was researching into investments that I thought would potentially complement my then existing holdings and to attempt to somewhat diversify away (or hedge against) the dollar-related investments that I had, so in that regard, my mindset seemed to be in the right place and also my ability to deploy finances (reallocate or whatever it was that I was doing) was also in a decently good and fitting place for bitcoin.. and yeah, I did not go in whole hog.. so it probably took me a year or so to get somewhat comfortable, even though the learning journey is ongoing.

I expect that each of us are learning, and I have some memories of some of your earlier content as well.. no need to look back, unless I am feeling that I might be mixing you up with someone else (which also happens from time to time when there might be some similar personalities and then mentally I end up lumping them together in my mind, even though some of the details might have been different - to the extent that any of that is important anyhow.. except to make the point that some of our views are likely to change along the way.. and also the extent to which we acted upon some of our views may well have changed along the way.. including how aggressive (or convicted) we might have been in bitcoin.. and also if we invested aggressively or a common theme of getting distracted into various shitcoins which some guys have done more than others... and probably varying levels of success with those sometimes off topic deviations that could end up affecting how they view bitcoin or even how they went about investing into bitcoin (including various ways to attempt to manage risk that may or may not have ended up playing out well).

[fillippone]

the start of a new era🤩🤩

Someone is trying to sell that as an NFT 

https://nftcalendar.io/event/first-bitcoin-transaction-nft/

Ooops!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

The reason I say land is the riskiest is draconian governments can simply seize it.  And the dirtiest secret is they do not even have to.  They can also tax all your value out of it.

Land also potentially ties you to a location which could be bad in some circumstances. I do own my home because I like it that way but I'm prepared to abandon it should the need arise.

[shahzadafzal]

Best quote ever

https://twitter.com/thebtcmanual/status/1525717616270012416?s=21

[cAPSLOCK]

The reason I say land is the riskiest is draconian governments can simply seize it.  And the dirtiest secret is they do not even have to.  They can also tax all your value out of it.

Land also potentially ties you to a location which could be bad in some circumstances. I do own my home because I like it that way but I'm prepared to abandon it should the need arise.

How absolutely bonkers that statement would have sounded just a couple years ago.  Luckily it still seems unlikely, but it would not be shocking.  This is the scenario in which a little bucket of silver rounds may also come in handy.

Lord Jesus,  I have become some sort of cyber-prepper.  I have also stockpiled a little kCal dense food along with a great deal of ammo.  May my children joke about crazy old dad some decades into the future as they sort through all my shit.

[Hueristic]

About buying land, location matters, though. Nice land close to the beach in South Florida is worth millions, until it's under water and worth nothing. Apparently it's becoming difficult to insure beach properties.

You also can't grow food or raise livestock in the sand.

Found this interesting, and your post reminded me of it.

Scientists successfully grow plants in soil from the moon

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/14/1098753238/scientists-grow-plants-soil-moon-nasa-university-of-florida

[serveria.com]

Voted $40k+ in the poll (as a retarded hardcore permabull). 

Meanwhile, got some pics of the upcoming 100k party from a time traveler. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation