Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hueristic]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bed-bath-beyond-cfo-leaps-death-tribeca-skyscraper
https://nypost.com/2022/09/04/bed-bath-beyond-exec-gustavo-arnal-idd-as-nyc-jenga-building-jumper-source/?utm_source=NYPTwitter&utm_medium=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=SocialFlow

So a high profile CFO making ~$3M per year in compensation, including a $775k yearly salary, trying to save a bankrupt company from implosion, decides to leap to his death?

Sheesh. These corp execs are really fucked in the head.

Just resign and move on, man.  You are not your career.

Fuck him, he is was part of the problem.

[LoyceV]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again.

[Hueristic]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again.

Occam's Razor, people are stupid and easily manipulated.

[Torque]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again.

True, but...

1. At even 4-5% interest rate, the U.S. cannot afford even afford to pay the interest on the national debt. They have to borrow every year just to pay the interest. Especially in an environment where tax receipts are falling.

2. Corporations will not be able to borrow at that rate and will go bankrupt. Thus mass layoffs will happen, which will cause even more of the govt tax base to fall due to mass unemployment.

Low interest rates were low for so long for a reason, an inconvenient truth that no one wants to acknowledge.

At some point the Fed will have no choice but to pivot to rate cuts again in order to avoid a global financial meltdown.

[LoyceV]

2. Corporations will not be able to borrow at that rate and will go bankrupt. Thus mass layoffs will happen, which will cause even more of the govt tax base to fall due to mass unemployment.

Should corporations that can't survive at 5% interest even exist? Those zombie companies also compete against healthy companies.

Low interest rates were low for so long for a reason, an inconvenient truth that no one wants to acknowledge.

Fiat money is on life support.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

2. Corporations will not be able to borrow at that rate and will go bankrupt. Thus mass layoffs will happen, which will cause even more of the govt tax base to fall due to mass unemployment.

Should corporations that can't survive at 5% interest even exist? Those zombie companies also compete against healthy companies.

No they shouldn't. Not in a sustainable world economy.

But literally every major corporation out there, even the "healthy" ones with significant cash reserves like Amazon and Apple, count on borrowing massive amounts of cash every year at absurdly low interest rates. The whole world runs on cheap debt now. Make that debt expensive for an extended period of time, and the entire world collapses.

I would also postulate that most zombie companies around the world have been propped up by the system solely to give people jobs (so those employees can buy a house, buy cars, buy stuff and ultimately pay taxes). That's it. Otherwise those people would be on the streets permanently. They would not be able to find similar jobs elsewhere, because the companies remaining could not absorb the extra staff and overhead. It's a complete financial ponzi system.

[goldkingcoiner]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Because people are stupid. So progress takes a long time.

[Toxic2040]

the Sunday morning wall report

gm


Light trading has bitcoin hovering just under $20k as the weekly close approaches. Market sentiment remains weak after hawkish remarks from chair Powell. F*ck him.

These are the days when ones will shall be tested...do not succumb to the fear, uncertainty or doubt spread by the powers that be.

dyor


4h


D
-edit- corrected double image

stronghands


----------

#haikuSunday


Lost, hope departed
Yet we remain undaunted
Day in and day out

Standing the vanguard
Fighting for freedom for all
Yes, this is the way

Do not despair, hodl
For our time to shine brightly
Inevitable

[Gachapin]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

In the USA it is easy to get I bonds at 9.62%

Isn't it limited to 10k per year per person ? (maybe 15k)

[Gachapin]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

we are still early

[Gachapin]

https://news.bitcoin.com/south-korean-governments-youtube-channel-hacked-to-play-crypto-video-with-elon-musk/

Fucking woke-cancer-tube is censoring the shit out of anything recently... how come they let all these scams run... do they wanna support the association crypto Bitcoin = scam or what??  That'd be shocking....   

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[AlcoHoDL]

Only three haikus?
On a Sunday, FFS?
Vegeta no ded?

#haikuping

[philipma1957]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again.

Never quite saw it that way but there is some sense to this.

One issue is dollar pegged coins suck compared to US I bonds which now pay 9.62% for at least six months from day of purchase.

All US citizens should buy these first until they reach the yearly limit of $10,000.


I have to think that is pulling a lot of money out of crypto. btc or what ever the fuck you want to call coins.

Why have an unsafely pegged 'stable' coin when you can have a perfectly pegged i bond paying 9.62% for six months.

you can cash it  at that time so it is ridiculously better then many other investments (cap of 10k is small)

[Biodom]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

In the USA it is easy to get I bonds at 9.62%

Limited to 10K/year...it's nothing even for an average size IRA (it is about 150-200K, if I remember correctly).
Maybe i should buy up to the limit, though, thanks for mentioning it.
Upon reading up on these bonds, there are more restrictions: you can cash it out after 12 mo (so it's more like a 12 mo CD with a higher yield), but if you cash out before 5 years, then you lose 3mo of interest.

[OutOfMemory]

Only three haikus?
On a Sunday, FFS?
Vegeta no ded?

#haikuping

Vegeta is fine
Haiku Sunday will come back
Stronger than ever


Shhh: WO newcomers, you are welcome to join in  

[cygan]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

<snip>

#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

I have a lot of interest in how LN pool is working as a second/third layer for BTC


Bob what are your thoughts on this?

any idea on your BTC outlays vs your BTC intakes. You have been running one a while.

It is basically impossible for someone to cheat someone out of value this way.

I have been running lightning nodes since the very beginning (One of the first 200 nodes was mine) , and have had catastrophic hard drive failures, and made big mistakes.

So with Bob's channel... if I understand Bob opened the channel, the value was on his side.  This other node pulled all that liquidity to their side, and then closed the channel.  The only way for this to have happened is for Bob's other channels to have gained that same liquidity.  And when the other node closed the channel they deserved every single sat they got, and Bob has all of those same number of sats PLUS fees on other channels.

There are many ways one can lose money on the lightning network.  But this is absolutely not one of them.  The way that channel operators are MOST vulnerable to would be the opposite scenario.  The other node opens the channel to Bob.  Bob pulls ALL that liquidity to HIS side of the channel (and loses an equal amount on other channels) and THEN the channel partner waits for Bob to go OFFLINE and force closes the channel with a fraudulent balance (I still have all the sats on MY side!!! ).  IF there are no watchtowers watching, then they might get away with this.  We have seen VERY little of this sort of thing yet.

I have done the math on my own nodes.  I have never lost a sat due to anything like this.  In fact, even after my hard drive failure I have not lost a single sat. (Amazingly... I was prepared to lose over a BTC heh)

Interestingly, I do have ONE zombie channel open with a node.  That node opened the channel for 5000000 sats.  There was never any transactions, and they disappeared before my node went down.  For them to get their value back they have to force close this channel but they have been offline for months.  Eventually, if I want to, I can craft and execute a close for this channel for the entire balance, and since they are not online I will get it.  I have nothing to lose, since even if a watchtower saw me try to lie there is not penalty I can even pay.  All those sats are really his.

I will never do this.  If that other node comes back they will always be able to reclaim those bitcoin.

https://www.amboss.space/edge/727763x1580x1