Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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#LNMETA

During all the mempool nonsense just recently, I just watched a node manually drain out all my liquidity through their side, paid some handsome fees, and closed the channel on me.

Curious watching the overall game theory play out.

Is the person on the other side of the channel trying to cheat you?

I have a lot of interest in how LN pool is working as a second/third layer for BTC


Bob what are your thoughts on this?

any idea on your BTC outlays vs your BTC intakes. You have been running one a while.

It is basically impossible for someone to cheat someone out of value this way.

I have been running lightning nodes since the very beginning (One of the first 200 nodes was mine) , and have had catastrophic hard drive failures, and made big mistakes.

So with Bob's channel... if I understand Bob opened the channel, the value was on his side.  This other node pulled all that liquidity to their side, and then closed the channel.  The only way for this to have happened is for Bob's other channels to have gained that same liquidity.  And when the other node closed the channel they deserved every single sat they got, and Bob has all of those same number of sats PLUS fees on other channels.

There are many ways one can lose money on the lightning network.  But this is absolutely not one of them.  The way that channel operators are MOST vulnerable to would be the opposite scenario.  The other node opens the channel to Bob.  Bob pulls ALL that liquidity to HIS side of the channel (and loses an equal amount on other channels) and THEN the channel partner waits for Bob to go OFFLINE and force closes the channel with a fraudulent balance (I still have all the sats on MY side!!! ).  IF there are no watchtowers watching, then they might get away with this.  We have seen VERY little of this sort of thing yet.

I have done the math on my own nodes.  I have never lost a sat due to anything like this.  In fact, even after my hard drive failure I have not lost a single sat. (Amazingly... I was prepared to lose over a BTC heh)

Interestingly, I do have ONE zombie channel open with a node.  That node opened the channel for 5000000 sats.  There was never any transactions, and they disappeared before my node went down.  For them to get their value back they have to force close this channel but they have been offline for months.  Eventually, if I want to, I can craft and execute a close for this channel for the entire balance, and since they are not online I will get it.  I have nothing to lose, since even if a watchtower saw me try to lie there is not penalty I can even pay.  All those sats are really his.

I will never do this.  If that other node comes back they will always be able to reclaim those bitcoin.

https://www.amboss.space/edge/727763x1580x1

[JayJuanGee]

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

Isn't the low interest the cause of all this? It's been too low for too long, there's too much fiat money now, and the interest has to be raised a lot more before markets can make sense again.

Never quite saw it that way but there is some sense to this.

One issue is dollar pegged coins suck compared to US I bonds which now pay 9.62% for at least six months from day of purchase.

All US citizens should buy these first until they reach the yearly limit of $10,000.


I have to think that is pulling a lot of money out of crypto. btc or what ever the fuck you want to call coins.

Why have an unsafely pegged 'stable' coin when you can have a perfectly pegged i bond paying 9.62% for six months.

you can cash it  at that time so it is ridiculously better then many other investments (cap of 10k is small)

You do not seem to be off topic too much, especially since this is a dollar BTC thread, and I suppose that there could be some value in holding dollars in interest bearing accounts rather than accounts without interest, but it sounds that you have to lock up your fiat for 6 months in order to use those kinds of funds.

I am not completely hostile to the idea of using various kinds of savings bonds when getting started in investments, and I recall close to 40 years ago, in the mid-to-late 80s, I had started to establish a system of buying US Govt bond that could be rolled over in 5-8 years, so I figured that if I kept buying them every two weeks or monthly, then when I built up to 5-8 years, then I could just roll them over, so in that sense I would allow it to self-perpetuate, but we did not have bitcoin back then either.. and frequently investment vehicles were restricted for layman normies. 

In recent years, I have not been that hot on locking up cash for very long periods of time, even though your description of locking up cash for 6 months is not as long of a lock up as the bonds that I used to buy in the 80s and 90s, and at the same time, in a thread like this, it seems that we should be attempting to figure out how to strategize our bitcoin position first - and sure our cash position can be used to attempt to balance out our expenses and our having an emergency fund, but it does not seem to be a great area of focus - and even perceptions of potentially serving as a great longer term store of value.. even though some people might be wanting to maintain higher levels of liquid funds.. especially when getting older.. so if you are getting 9.62% APY, then at least you are kind of keeping up with inflation - versus not getting any interest on higher level of value kept in cash.

I am still going to suggest for guys (and gal) to focus getting their shit together in regards to their bitcoin matters first prior to getting too distracted by locking up cash value in instruments that might be more designed for having liquidation abilities within 6-12 months, because even if when looking at your bitcoin versus cash holdings, there are some desires to maintain some cash reserves, there are likely going to be some fluctuations in how much cash that anyone is able to keep versus the amount of BTC, and for sure our cash might need to be used for emergencies too, even if it might serve in a dual capacity of funding BTC buys...

Sometimes it is not easy to show these matters with mere percentages, if we take someone who might be trying to maintain something in the category of 90/10** for their BTC holdings versus cash holdings, those numbers are likely to fluctuate if the BTC price goes up then maybe the cash would become higher - even if it might reach 80/20.. and then if the BTC price is low, then maybe there can be some running out of cash in the neighborhood of 98/2.  So my point remains that even if there is some desire to have both bitcoin and cash available, there might not be many desires to keep any of those funds locked up.. and even the maintenance of an emergency fund can have funds locked up, but that somewhat of a side issue as compared to what we discuss in this thread - which is getting your shit together in regards to what are doing with BTC.. which at the same time, getting your shit together regarding your own personal finances remains a prerequisite of investing into anything.. In other words, you cannot even have an investment portfolio if you don't have some kinds of decent ideas about whether you even have a surplus in your monthly cashflow because otherwise you are engaging in gambling rather than investing because if you actually need the money that you are investing into bitcoin to cover your regular monthly expenses and/or even to cover some emergency expenses, then you have fucked up by overly investing into bitcoin and failing/refusing to adequately assure that money that you are investing is not something that you actually need for living (monthly expenses and emergencies).

** don't get me wrong.. I am not suggesting that people invest into bitcoin at 90/10, I am merely talking about within the investment portfolio that is dedicated to bitcoin, there may well be a bitcoin/dollar holding and maybe the dedicated BTC portion would start out anywhere between 1% and 25% of your overall investments portfolio. .whimpy is on the lower end of the 1% to 25% range and then more aggressive is on the upper end, and then if the BTC portion grows after taking the initial stake, there would not necessarily be any reason to reallocate in any kind of major way (discretionary of course, and letting your winners ride can be a reasonable investment approach, too).

Call me a bit naive, but I cannot for the life of me understand why money is not moving into bitcoin in a gigantic swirl....yet.
It is obvious that inflation is high, eating everyone's purchasing power.
Stonks are still at the top of the range vs P/E and interest rates.
Real estate went up crazily during Covid and is posed to plunge. All factors point to it.
Gold is not "working" really since 2011.
So...how the populace think that they could keep their funds at least at par vs inflation?

In the USA it is easy to get I bonds at 9.62%

Limited to 10K/year...it's nothing even for an average size IRA (it is about 150-200K, if I remember correctly).
Maybe i should buy up to the limit, though, thanks for mentioning it.
Upon reading up on these bonds, there are more restrictions: you can cash it out after 12 mo (so it's more like a 12 mo CD with a higher yield), but if you cash out before 5 years, then you lose 3mo of interest.

Wonder if I should re-write my whole responsive post, in which phillip had mentioned a minimum of 6 months, and really it seems like locked up for 5 years, which is largely similar to what I had been buying in the 80s.. and I got turned off by so much damned lock up time..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Phil_S]

[philipma1957]

@ Jg

so 9.62% which will adjust every 6 months.

on the most stable possible stable coin so to speak

do 6 months you get 3 months interest if you cash
do 9 months you get 6 months interest if you cash
do 12 get 9
do 24 get 21
do 36 get 33
do 48 get 45
do 60 get 60

the only lock up is first six months.

and simply make 10x  1000 buys right now all are liquid in six months all get 9.62%

if you need some back just cash 1 or 2 .

these bonds have effectively killed all stable coins to a very large degree

Now I know stable coins are not btc but many of us have accounts with stable coins and btc and will trade back and forth.

I think this current 9.62% I bond rate has attracted a ton of fiat away from all coin btc included.

now do I only hold I bonds nope
do I only hold btc nope

do I now hold any stable coins hell to the no I would have to be nuts to have any stable coins.

I mine and dump eth to cash and to btc
I hold in no special order:

I bonds
cash
Btc
Ltc
Doge
Etc
silver bars

the I bond rates and the stable coin crashes have me completely out of any stable coin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

[HI-TEC99]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

People merited him at the ATH, and other significant prices, like 50k. I think I might have merited him myself at 50k or 60k.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

People merited him at the ATH, and other significant prices, like 50k. I think I might have merited him myself the first time we hit 50k.

S/he/it also started out with a thousand merits for being a legendary at the time that the merit system was introduced (January 2018).

As far as post count, CB is coming to get you philip.  Aka.. your days are numbered.

[philipma1957]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

People merited him at the ATH, and other significant prices, like 50k. I think I might have merited him myself the first time we hit 50k.

S/he/it also started out with a thousand merits for being a legendary at the time that the merit system was introduced (January 2018).

As far as post count, CB is coming to get you philip.  Aka.. your days are numbered.

yeah he does 24 a day. I never kept that pace.

maybe I did 45k posts maybe 44k

over 3650 days. so at most 13 a day. so even if i post my 13 a day he will gain 11 x 365 = 4000 posts in a year.  he will pass me in around two or three years.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

buddy still gunning for my numbers

[JayJuanGee]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

People merited him at the ATH, and other significant prices, like 50k. I think I might have merited him myself the first time we hit 50k.

S/he/it also started out with a thousand merits for being a legendary at the time that the merit system was introduced (January 2018).

As far as post count, CB is coming to get you philip.  Aka.. your days are numbered.

yeah he does 24 a day. I never kept that pace.

maybe I did 45k posts maybe 44k

over 3650 days. so at most 13 a day. so even if i post my 13 a day he will gain 11 x 365 = 4000 posts in a year.  he will pass me in around two or three years.

I just calculated my posts per day as 8.3.. which is still pretty high relatively speaking...  I recall when I first got on the forum on purpose I was trying to limit my posts to only a couple times per day, but after the passage of some time (maybe a year or so), I decided to let the goose more loose.

buddy still gunning for my numbers

Maybe if you were just to do a smart-ass post each time that buddy posts, then you will keep up with that repetitive lazy-ass animated good for nearly nuttin bot...? or Maybe just do two posts for every one post that buddy does?  It's not like buddy has anything important to say (or report), in recent times, anyhow.

[philipma1957]

how did chart buddy get 1269 merits?

People merited him at the ATH, and other significant prices, like 50k. I think I might have merited him myself the first time we hit 50k.

S/he/it also started out with a thousand merits for being a legendary at the time that the merit system was introduced (January 2018).

As far as post count, CB is coming to get you philip.  Aka.. your days are numbered.

yeah he does 24 a day. I never kept that pace.

maybe I did 45k posts maybe 44k

over 3650 days. so at most 13 a day. so even if i post my 13 a day he will gain 11 x 365 = 4000 posts in a year.  he will pass me in around two or three years.

I just calculated my posts per day as 8.3.. which is still pretty high relatively speaking...  I recall when I first got on the forum on purpose I was trying to limit my posts to only a couple times per day, but after the passage of some time (maybe a year or so), I decided to let the goose more loose.

buddy still gunning for my numbers

Maybe if you were just to do a smart-ass post each time that buddy posts, then you will keep up with that repetitive lazy-ass animated good for nearly nuttin bot...? or Maybe just do two posts for every one post that buddy does?  It's not like buddy has anything important to say (or report), in recent times, anyhow.

Ah 25 posts a day just as a f u to buddy is a lot of fucking posts.

maybe for a week or two but for years on end it is simply too many to do.

buddy will pass me maybe just after the next ½ ing

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation