2. An alternative possibility: In 2014, Mt Gox went out on Feb 24 when btc was at $546. Initially, btc was not affected much, paradoxically, but eventually went down to $175 within about 10 mo.
Therefore, if FTX=MtGox (which is probably not the case), then the bottom would be 10 mo away (by Sept-Oct 2023) at a horrific number that i don't want to post, but you can do the math.
I currently give 10-20% chance to this scenario.
For me it seems irrelevant to compare with the 2014 situation, especially regarding the timing. We had the ATH in december 2013, it seems logical that we didn't get the final bottom 2-3 months after (in february or march 2014).
When Mt Gox went out in 2014, we were approximately at "only" 50% down from the ATH. A the same time BTC did x100 up on 2013... Mt Gox or not, regarding the different cycles, BTC will have continued to fall during (the whole?) 2013.
With your example, it mean we would get a Bottom almost 2 years after the previous ATH, or even 2,5years after if we consider that the bullish cycle ended in may 2021 (as we did a double top).
Poll
