@jjg..I discussed a potential future strategy, albeit if you back-test it to what happened before, you would see how successful it would have been. Duh!
I only had small sells here and there, that is true, but it does not not mean that I won't sell a larger % in the future (2023-2025).
Yeah.. but you criticized DCA for being brainless - and suggesting that you have it all figured out how you could beat (and it turns out could have beat - because you are not applying your strategy in reality).
I have no problem with the employment of more advance strategies - but poo-pooing DCA seems quite problematic since in reality there are not very many folks who are able to beat a pure DCA strategy, and furthermore even if they do end up beating a pure DCA strategy, another question would be whether such beating is repeatable and furthermore even another question would be whether it was worth all the efforts to fuck around 10 hours a week trying to figure out these kinds of matters when the results might ONLY be small percentages higher than a strict DCA strategy - if they end up beating DCA rather than losing along the way.
Personally, I never followed a completely strict DCA strategy, so I am not even opposed to the ideas of supplementing DCA by attempting to buy on the dip, too, but I really find it problematic to employ selling strategies as means to acquire more BTC.. because those really tend to be losing strategies... but on the other hand, if you have been in bitcoin for a long enough time, your BTC portfolio is likely to be in profits, so losing strategies might just be a matter of forgoing profit opportunities rather than actual literally losing since selling at any BTC price happens to be profitable if your overall BTC holdings are in profits.. so anyone can look like a genius in those circumstances - especially if their strategies are not looked at more deeply in terms of their having had ended up selling too much BTC too soon while the BTC price was going up.
Honestly, i was expecting bitcoin to moderate in this cycle and it did so on the upside (only 3.2X vs prior cycle's 17X between two ATHs)
I don't disagree with your overall conclusion that the upside was not as great as previous cycles, but I do not agree with any measurement of the previous ATH as being reflective regarding how much upside that we actually got in this cycle.
I am pretty sure that it would be reasonable to count anywhere between $4,200 and $8k-ish as our jumping off base for this last cycle, since between February 2018 and August 2020, the BTC price spent so much time within that $4,200 and $8k-ish price range.
Yeah, the top was not as high as previous cycles.
yeah, the top did not go as high as many of us expected.
But still... measuring from the 2017 top is hardly using a fair jumping off base in order that meaningful assessments can be made in the direction of either assessment of BTC fundamentals or attempting to employ more sophisticated BTC portfolio management strategies.
I doubt that you personally were acquiring too many BTC in the $12k to $20k price arena between late 2017 and late 2018... to the extent that you were acquiring any BTC since mid-2017 - and sure, even though I describe you as whimpy in your BTC acquisition, I do still expect that you are a buying on the dip kind of guy and you have bought some BTC since 2015...rather than just talking about such buying on the dip opportunities that we have even witnessed, especially since early 2018 but even more so since late 2018.... or even after the early-to-mid 2019
(subsequently characterized) fake out that took us to $13,880.
, but NOT the downside (a smallish difference of -77.5% vs prior 84%). I know what was the reason: leverage, bad macro, etc., but still...
I agree with you. The downside has been quite brutish and beyond expectations... and including higher than expected levels of fraud too.. but what are we going to do when any of us might NOT have realized how extensively some of the players were playing these systems.. including that even reputable bitcoin holders, such as GBTC are having their coins questioned, too...
and don't forget the froth of ethereum has not yet imploded... .and whether they can play their bullshit for another 4-year cycle or whatever without actually imploding might be surprising, too.. not that I like to talk about shitcoins or even suggest that shitcoins and shitty behaviors are driving king daddy.
We shall see how the next cycle transpires...everybody seem to be confused with diametrically opposite opinions: anything from a deep freeze and flat btc to some exorbitant numbers.
Honestly, I am VERY surprised that the economy is able to perform quite well so far with rates being so high (and going higher).
There has always been negative bullshit in bitcoin an even negative bullshit related to bitcoin. Remember how doom and gloom assessments were in regards to bitcoin's survivability were during 2017 - even as 2017 ended up being a pretty good year for bitcoin, so as bitcoin gets BIGGER the character and nature of the threats to it have to get stronger in order to keep this bad boy down.
I don't claim that there are any guarantees that bitcoin is even going to be able to go up.. and even though bitcoin is also more able to perform better when the fiat systems (the USD is the main one of course) is not imploding.. .but get real.. how much implosion can the USD systems expect to continue to impose on systems in order to attempt to accomplish their stated preference of a "soft-landing".. yeah.. lot's of people (mostly normies) are going to get fucked in this whole attempt at a "soft-landing" but do you really speculate that they have the power to really keep bitcoin in check as much as they are trying to create impressions that they are able to control bitcoin.
They can't control it, and that is part of the reasons why they seem so scared and that they have to sometimes fight so strongly with their various communications of draconian measures and naysaying on bitcoin and purposefully making convoluted proclamations that conflate bitcoin and shitcoins (with vague terms like crypto and blockchain and maybe some other nonsense to even say that bitcoin facilitated FTX to steal the money of rich peeps and normies too).
You are free to assign whatever weight that you like to the capacities of various status quo systems to be able to hang onto their positions and to keep king daddy down... and yeah, even if bitcoin merely just performs at similar levels to various other investments, that would still end up being too much winning for them to tolerate - even while it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to continue to outperform various other status quo assets...even if selectively any of us might be able to spin these matters and to whine about bitcoin supposedly being below the 2017 top as if those kinds of numbers were really reflective of where bitcoin has been, where we are at and/or where we are going.
I am sticking with my recommendation for any newbies to get between 1% and 25% into bitcoin, and how they get to those levels can take a long time to figure out, and there is also a lot of range within my recommendation in order that the whimpy ones may well end up erroring on the lower end of the range, and surely sometimes the more aggressive beginners will bet BIG, and for sure the more sophisticated that we are, and the more time that we spend studying the bitcoin space, we are going to be able to tailorize our own more sophisticated strategies, even though the beginner strategies are likely going to be best to be employed in basic and lazy and nonthinking ways.. and as many folks become more and more used to bitcoin, and realize that bitcoin is likely going to remain the best (or amongst the best) of places to hold wealth, then Gresham principles are likely going to continue to motivate folks in terms of spending their shitcoins first, spending their fiat first, cashing out on their traditional investments first, and making sure that they are actually holding and accumulating a sufficient and adequate (rather than a whimpy) allocation to bitcoin...while at the same time hopefully accounting for all of their financial and psychological particulars rather than just guessing...but people are people and some of them are going to be better at harmonizing their individually tailored allocations into bitcoin than others.
Poll
