$BTC and $ETH outperformed major stock indexes on a risk-adjusted basis in 2022
TwitterWhat's eth?
Well, why didn't I get reckt? Yet? Consider that.
I submit getting reckt is subjective.
Am I reckt? my mining income is no longer 32k/4 per month it is more like 4k/4 per month.
Fair enough.
You have a habit of doing a lot of dumb shit, but then rationalizing that it is the right thing to do.
So 8000 a month is now 1000 a month Is that reckt?
I am not sure. There are somethings that are part of a dynamic that you set up, and it can take years to figure out whether there might have been better ways (for uie-pooie) to deploy your capital, so in some sense, when you had made a choice to get involved in bitcoin mining 11-12 years ago, there are some trade-offs with that and if you keep building in that direction, for sure it can take a while to see return on investments.
For sure, you have built some of your speciality too, and you are going to be inclined to build in the direction of your speciality, so there likely can be some personal satisfaction to spend time mining and building mining and even having some geographical tie down that allows for mining activities that might be less suitable for someone who does not want to get either geographically tied down, tied to a business and might want to stay more liquid. Yes, some quasi-intangible angles that are individualistic and subjective like you mentioned.
For some that would be reckt for me it is not why is that? $0 debt.
There are a variety of ways of reading whether you might be in a good set up or not, and for sure, the use of debt is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you know how to do it. There have been a lot of folks - including in the mining industry, that got reckt as fuck in the last year or less because of the ways that they had employed debt.. so surely, your way of doing it may have ended up being better.. I cannot exactly answer for you, and surely when you are investing a lot in equipment, those investments can take a decently long time to pay off.. so it may well not be a good time to be counting chickens, even if you might be feeling kind of smug and even kind of like you put yourself in a good place for future payoffs, and that cannot be completely my way of judging your relative state of recktness or not.
Yeah it was nice making 8k a month for some months in 2021 and for some months in 2022. It is not so nice making 1k per month.
Actually having a positive cashflow (even if reduced) is way better than some folks/businesses (miners) who are not in a positive cashflow from their equipment.
But $0 debt and a good power deal means I am ready for uppity.
Not going to begrudge you about those kinds of possibilities.
A rebound for BTC means my mining rebounds.
Possibly. I doubt it is a good idea to count your chickens too soon, even if you may well have put yourself into a good set up (or bouncing off) location in terms of your own way of setting things up and perhaps including feeling that you are having results that are as good as expected or even better than expected in the context of the overall market (bitcoin and macro and even your own particulars in terms of finances and psychology) in which we find ourselves, currently.
flatline for BTC means I can expand my btc gear and my btc holdings.
Yes. A lot of folks are not in such a position, so you are correct in the sense that reckt folks would not be ready, willing or able to expand during times like this because some of them are sweating it through and others are sweating through the process of either regrouping or going out of business. In that sense, there can be quite a bit of good feelings when you are in a place in which the BTC price (or whatever market conditions) are coming to you, rather than you having to adjust way more than you had been wanting to because you had not prepared yourself financially and/or mentally for where we are at and/or where we might be going from here.
So this year 2023 at 14-18k means I dca I buy some dips. I grow my mine.
or this year at 28-38k means I dca I keep mine size stable.
We all have plans one way or the other.
I am set in the 14-18k range
I am set in the 28-38k range
I am set in the 56-100k range
I am set in the 101-200k range
I am selling and stopping all mining or dca in the 200k+ range.
on the downside I am good till around 6k at 6k I am not sure what mining will be for me as my power may not be cheap enough at that price.
It's good to have a plan for a wide variety of scenarios, and surely in previous posts I had heard you asserting that you are prepared to mine bitcoin until you were either 70 years old or close to 70, so if you are in the ballpark of 66 years old, then it may well be the case that we might be able to arrive at $200ks prior to your turning 70.. and yeah, there are no guarantees because we have best case scenarios and we have worse case scenarios, so sometimes there still might be a time component and not just a price component when our timeline is potentially getting lower.. so I personally do not have those kinds of dynamics that I am considering.. but of course, each of us have our various considerations.. and even though I am engaging in some BTC accumulation in the past 6-9 months that has gone beyond expectations, I am not really wedded to having to engage in BTC accumulations, and I could transition into either maintenance mode or even transition into liquidation mode as a back-up plan and really without really sacrificing in terms of current lifestyle, even though it would then likely take away possible abilities to live many years down the road or to legacy matters, to the extent that legacy does matter....
. but yeah the initial bouncing off topic was about getting reckt, and surely there can be a lot of ways to describe how much any of us may have gotten reckt in terms of our reliance on models or our putting a lot of eggs in one model or another, so there may well be some rich folks who got reckt as fuck by how much they were gambling on various entities that went bankrupt this year, but if we are talking about merely expecting the BTC price to go up rather than down in light of the stock to flow model or even expecting BTC not to go below the
200-week moving average (which is now at $24,415), then surely some of those folks got reckt because not ONLY were they not prepared in case the BTC price went below the 200-week moving average (which was at around $22k when we first went below it in June 2022), some of them were leveraging or otherwise had various bets and non preparations for the BTC price to both go below the 200-week moving average, but to largely stay quite a bit below the 200-week moving average for going on 7 months now. Holy fuck... painful for a lot of folks, but some folks got more reckt than others... and some folks lived (and are still living) to fight another day.. and it seems that both you (Philip) and I are both in the "live to fight another day" camp, even if aspects of our philosophy and risk management and even ways of measuring probabilities differ. We need not all be the same in order to not get reckt and/or to "live to fight another day" in markets like this.
As you mentioned, there is subjectivity.. but there is also relativeness, and there are some folks who got more reckt than others, even if some of those seemingly objectively reckt folks might not label where they are at currently as "reckt," and I am not even suggesting that you are amongst the reckt crowd Philip, even if I may have lectured you in a variety of other ways, and I am likely to continue to lecture you in a variety of other ways regarding some of your from time to time dumbass ideas.. especially related to how much you seem to be "in love" with Ibonds.. you dumb ass.. hahahahahaha no homo.
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