Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

...I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. ...

I have to "lol" at this.

[Newfeeling]

I have a doubt , please only respond if you know what youre talking about . I beleive that bitcoin to usd price is stucked cause of all the alts coins that are pulling it down , if bitcoin rises an 20% againts usd , all the coins rise as equals. If bitcoin falls all the coins falls againts usd.

The vast majority of alt-coins have their value determined by BTC value. With the exception of LTC and a handful of other alt-coins, there's no direct means of converting fiat into these without having purchased BTC or LTC first and then exchanging them for the alt-coins. In other words, if someone wants to buy an altcoin, they more likely than not will have to buy and sell through BTC to get there.

As with any other market, speculators will throw down money in related commodities/companies/goods whenever there's a rise in the value of the primary item. It's possible that alt-coins are somehow impairing BTC, but I don't think this is a valid reason.

[dreamspark]

I have a doubt , please only respond if you know what youre talking about . I beleive that bitcoin to usd price is stucked cause of all the alts coins that are pulling it down , if bitcoin rises an 20% againts usd , all the coins rise as equals. If bitcoin falls all the coins falls againts usd.

The vast majority of alt-coins have their value determined by BTC value. With the exception of LTC and a handful of other alt-coins, there's no direct means of converting fiat into these without having purchased BTC or LTC first and then exchanging them for the alt-coins. In other words, if someone wants to buy an altcoin, they more likely than not will have to buy and sell through BTC to get there.

As with any other market, speculators will thrown down money in related commodities/companies/goods whenever there's a rise in the value of the primary item. It's possible that alt-coins are somehow impairing BTC, but I don't think this is a valid reason.

While its true that its traded on the pair you have to consider this. People are making profits off alt coins, people who buy or mine early some are making 1000's% profit. These people will want to realise some of these profits and thus sell some of the BTC they gain so what pepo is saying is certainly a factor. I mean look at black coin I made double figures BTC over two days, as did many others.

The problem with all these coins coming and dying is that people generally end up holding worthless alts and the big players and early adopters are already off with the BTC and likely selling some.

The bit in bold is not strictly true either, if you mine an alt early you can mine a lot with not a lot of hardware, yes I know that someone has to buy the BTC in the first place but the vast majority I would wager are investors BTC that they had previously, at least the people who are making money trading alts are probably general investors, I doubt too many people buy BTC to specifically buy an alt and if they do its probably to a large sum.

[Post-Cosmic]

 Is there any evidence to the belief that expansions in the bitcoin ecosystem, services & economy actually increase the price..??
...
 So why in the WORLD is there this MYTH continuing about merchant adoption, growing ecosystem = higher price? Wtf? What am I missing..?

Welcome to the forum! Hope you've had the good first 6 days. Btw. the question is off-topic for this thread but let's not be picky.

Your question is discussed for example here.

 Thanks, although as had been mentioned before, I've been lurking on here getting to know everyone quite well (just in a 1-way fashion, until last week xD) all the way since Jan 11th this year.. & first discovered crypto's months before that.

 Appreciate the link ; The detailed, well-theorized information contained at that thread, along w/ Aminorex's intriguingly sound concept of 'a cryptocurrency merely has to be in the air in between transactions/uses for its market supply to be decreased as a result', compels me to give you guys the benefit of the doubt regarding the perennial question of whether it's a myth, that transactions, adoption, end users, increase the EXCHANGE PRICE of a currency (of course they increase the value, the utility, the infrastructure, make an economy more robust & varied - no question about that - but the market price is something else).

 If you can answer me one last question however, Reptilian, irregardless of its relevance to this thread's main topic or not, I would have to begin paying regular visits to your temple ; If a market exchange (speculative) price increases because an ASK order gets moved up, taken down, or bought into, it stands to reason that in order for an underlying economy's userbase & transactions expansion to indeed raise this price, each added user/transaction has to help get sellers to MOVE or take down their sell (ask) orders, and/or increase demand pressure for buyers to eat into these ask walls?? Now if the vast majority of users, due to obvious demographic factors, already had any BTC they needed to participate in the economy, they won't be pushing any demand on these ask orders, so how will that cause sellers to raise their price..? Especially when -merchants- will then dump proceeds on the market thus increasing supply & definitely not getting these ask/bids higher..?  

[JayJuanGee]

Are we at "Told you so?"  

This is when we are supposed to be buying then right?  

IMO we're definitely at Step 15, or maybe between 14 and 15.

Hate to say it but it could be we are at 9, and 8 was on April 11

I am thinking that we are at 13 or possibly between 13 and 14 ... Alternatively, we could be at 11-ish. 

Maybe we will know better about where we were in 6 months? but I doubt it. 

For the next year or two (and possibly longer), there will continue to be considerable dispute about where BTC has been and where BTC is going.

Some people may consider bitcoin a failure if the price hovers between $300 and $2000 for the next two years - Seems more plausible that we would hover between $1000 and $4000 at least from the later part of 2014 until mid-2016.  Though others are expecting much higher results than that. 

I hope that I am too bearish in my thoughts about what is likely, and the results end up being higher than my expectations.  $4,000 and above would be great, and I have some difficulties fathoming anything above $25k b/c that would certainly result in a quick and massive redistribution of wealth.... which is just difficult for me to grasp..... though it seem to be true that the world has already accepted some redistribution of wealth through bitcoin.

[KeyserSoze]

...I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. ...

I have to "lol" at this.

He also said his EW analysis was based on science. I thought the essence of science is repeatable experiments. He must have been referring to some other science.

[rpietila]

If you can answer me one last question however, Reptilian, irregardless of its relevance to this thread's main topic or not, I would have to begin paying regular visits to your temple ; If a market exchange (speculative) price increases because an ASK order gets moved up, taken down, or bought into, it stands to reason that in order for an underlying economy's userbase & transactions expansion to indeed raise this price, each added user/transaction has to help get sellers to MOVE or take down their sell (ask) orders, and/or increase demand pressure for buyers to eat into these ask walls?? Now if the vast majority of users, due to obvious demographic factors, already had any BTC they needed to participate in the economy, they won't be pushing any demand on these ask orders, so how will that cause sellers to raise their price..? Especially when -merchants- will then dump proceeds on the market thus increasing supply & definitely not getting these ask/bids higher..?  

Seeing the temple remains a dream for you, because I cannot answer the question.  

[windjc]

...I have been specific as the market will allow me. in 2-3 days you should remember that I am expecting for at least 580 to be touched. This is not a guess, this is analysis, and it is at stake. ...

I have to "lol" at this.

He also said his EW analysis was based on science. I thought the essence of science is repeatable experiments. He must have been referring to some other science.

Science? I didn't remember that quote. There are so many.

EW analysis is based on theory.  The science of trying to prove that theory is inconsistent. It works some of the time and some of the time it doesn't. That's the science of it that I am familiar with.

[Post-Cosmic]

 Is there more chinese deadlines in the air or is all the planned/rumored stuff behind us yet..? In early may, australian banks are supposed to shut off some bitcoin-related businesses' accounts. Other than that.. that's it for anything that isn't a nasty (unknown-yet) surprise right..?

 So, that means, 2 things are most likely to happen, quite like donkey stated :

This can be a repeat of not only March 3rd-18th 2014's low-mid-600's price range (which immediately followed the post-G0x-meltdown final euphoric $710 needle caused by a couple whales getting a mental volcano from the UK BTC-Taxation-Law Review announcement) ; but also replicating the slow lull period between April 4th-9th 2014, where prices hovered between $440-465, which had immediately followed the PBoC's Reign-of-Terror triple-bottom crash to $416 on late Apr. 2nd.

 We all know what happened after those latest low-volume plateau's - they represented a slow & steady erosion of demand & hope, stepping closer & closer to the precipice until finally slipping off the cliff for a vertiginous fall. In this case, that would indeed imply a sluggishly accelerating slide down to the 420's or 440's as the next bottom before a potential rise to 550-600's.

 [ -OR- ]

I am also noticing how uncannily similar this entire pattern is to the long-term chart from 2013. That, in combination w/ the fact that China's planned/announced enforcement deadlines are basically past us, makes it a legitimate possibility that 470-483 could be the lowest dips on the horizon for the short-term future and that we would continue slogging in this narrow range until the creeping rise post-mid-July is reproduced and Mission Control elatedly announces that the Ship is well on its way to the Oort Clouds*

<sup>Which of course is figurative given that if 'Da Moon' is colloquially estimated to mean several thousand & 'Mars' to refer to 10-20k, then literally reaching 'outer solar system' price points that therefore actually exceed Winklevoss Grandeur would not be conceivable in any shape or form until at least 5-8 years from now. The green-coloured scenario above is to be read as predicting $2650-3700 coins nearly a year from today, a figure which, like other price estimates in this post, has actually been calculated logically ~ by dividing previous ATH's w/ their respective preceding build-up periods' price level averages & then adjusting for diminishing returns on each new major ATH due to the linear economic realities of such significantly higher prices.

For instance, even though an average price level of the 2012 latent period was ~$11.75, w/ the following ATH reaching 22x that amount (@ $259 on Apr. 8th), the next price explosion cycle would not produce such a vertiginous 20x+ result, indeed clocking in at 11.4x using a $1163 ATH divided by a ~$102 avg. Notice the multiplication factor to the next ATH falling nearly half, @ 51.8% of the last. We can then take that magnificent .518 & apply it to last year's cycle factor of 11.4 = ~5.9, and use that as the higher end (to be realistic) of the next ATH's projection's range, while presuming, for the lower end, that economic diminishing returns would actually accelerate w/ each cycle thus resulting in a lower coefficient than .518 to be applied to the last cycle's factor - e.g. 11.4 x say, .375? = 4.275. Hence, 4.275 x an average of $620 as the lower bracket, & 5.9 x an average of $620 as the higher bracket.</sup>

[adamstgBit]

As great as Bitcoin is, it will never be as useful to the world as the Hutzler 571 Banana Slicer.
http://www.amazon.com/Hutzler-571-Banana-Slicer/product-reviews/B0047E0EII

or the Fruit Parer Slicer and De-Corer

http://www.amazon.com/All-Ware-Stainless-Pineapple-De-Corer/dp/B000GA53CO/ref=pd_sim_k_bsb_4?ie=UTF8&refRID=0KT858VQ5B1C6ZEZDS6S

but for an insane BTC fee, a rock band can be jamming in your living room as you prepare the fruits

[KeyserSoze]

EW analysis is based on theory.  The science of trying to prove that theory is inconsistent. It works some of the time and some of the time it doesn't. That's the science of it that I am familiar with.

EW is a continually disproved hypothesis, as we just witnessed. When one understands/controls the conditions of a scientific experiment based on actual scientific Theory, it is repeatable by others.

[JayJuanGee]

I have a doubt , please only respond if you know what youre talking about . I beleive that bitcoin to usd price is stucked cause of all the alts coins that are pulling it down , if bitcoin rises an 20% againts usd , all the coins rise as equals. If bitcoin falls all the coins falls againts usd.

The vast majority of alt-coins have their value determined by BTC value. With the exception of LTC and a handful of other alt-coins, there's no direct means of converting fiat into these without having purchased BTC or LTC first and then exchanging them for the alt-coins. In other words, if someone wants to buy an altcoin, they more likely than not will have to buy and sell through BTC to get there.

As with any other market, speculators will thrown down money in related commodities/companies/goods whenever there's a rise in the value of the primary item. It's possible that alt-coins are somehow impairing BTC, but I don't think this is a valid reason.

While its true that its traded on the pair you have to consider this. People are making profits off alt coins, people who buy or mine early some are making 1000's% profit. These people will want to realise some of these profits and thus sell some of the BTC they gain so what pepo is saying is certainly a factor. I mean look at black coin I made double figures BTC over two days, as did many others.

The problem with all these coins coming and dying is that people generally end up holding worthless alts and the big players and early adopters are already off with the BTC and likely selling some.

The bit in bold is not strictly true either, if you mine an alt early you can mine a lot with not a lot of hardware, yes I know that someone has to buy the BTC in the first place but the vast majority I would wager are investors BTC that they had previously, at least the people who are making money trading alts are probably general investors, I doubt too many people buy BTC to specifically buy an alt and if they do its probably to a large sum.

The original post in this line of question from Pepo..  seems to be a form of FUD-making and/or based on superficial mainstream propaganda.

Cryptos can both distract from and contribute to the value of bitcoin.  Overall, the various alt cryptos have remained a fairly low percentage of the overall crypto market cap - less than 10%.

I get the sense that some of the developments with side chains will increase BTC's value - yet I understand that some of the competing cryptos continue to suggest that the side chains will NOT distract from the value of some of the alt cryptos.  For example, the Ethereum project remains in full-swing - although maybe behind the scenes, the Ethereum founders will make adjustments to their going forward strategy(ies).

[adamstgBit]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!

i'm so excited.

and i just can't hide it

i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[KeyserSoze]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!
i'm so excited.
and i just can't hide it
i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

the Pointer Sisters? Let the flood begin of video links to gals jazzercizing in spandex.

[BitChick]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!

i'm so excited.

and i just can't hide it

i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

And what if we never see the 400's again!  

[KeyserSozeMC]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!
i'm so excited.
and i just can't hide it
i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

the Pointer Sisters? Let the flood begin of video links to gals jazzercizing in spandex.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs


Head or letters?

[adamstgBit]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!

i'm so excited.

and i just can't hide it

i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

And what if we never see the 400's again!  

how i feel when BitChick quotes me



lmao

[KeyserSoze]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs

Obviously we decide based on the date we joined the forum. I'm allergic to swords.

[KeyserSozeMC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqcLjcSloXs

Obviously we decide based on the date we joined the forum. I'm allergic to swords.

I'm talking about coin flipping, not swords.

I blame media in this case. I should get informed earlier about this forum


Nice to meet you.