Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[KeyserSoze]

I am pretty sure that there is only a little chance that we will ever again see $400.
As we know, nothing is impossible - but imo - $400 is really close to impossible.

[adamstgBit]

i got a really good feeling we will melt up and over 500 in the next 12 hours.

[JorgeStolfi]

Is there more chinese deadlines in the air or is all the planned/rumored stuff behind us yet..?

For deposits, not really; although if the government did not like the bank-transfer channels, they may  not like also any workaround that the exchanges may use to get the same effect (such as Huobi's recharge cards).  But there are no news at present.

For withdrawals, the Caixin article that first leaked the PBoC circular (discounting the earlier leak, denied on the same day by the PBoC) gave April 15 at the deadline to close all ties, after a period when only deposits would be blocked.   Obviously the implementation of the circular has been happening more slowly than claimed in that article; but, apart from that, the article has been confirmed so far.  Thus there is still room for more bad news.

In early may, australian banks are supposed to shut off some bitcoin-related businesses' accounts.

The news I saw were about ONE Australian bank (a government-owned one perhaps?) that decided on its own to close an exchange's account as of May 1.  Are there other similar decisions?
 

[minerpumpkin]

Wow, that's the most lackluster train on stamp

It's leaving the station, guys!

[BitChick]

I am pretty sure that there is only a little chance that we will ever again see $400.
As we know, nothing is impossible - but imo - $400 is really close to impossible.

Hey,  BitchicksHusband told me when the price was around $190 that we really should buy more coins. I didn't think there was any urgency.  I figured we might go back down to $120 again but I figured we might as well buy a few more. (I think what I was really thinking was why didn't you say we should buy more when the price was $100) This was the week before we hit $200 and then the price skyrocketed up.  We have never seen the $100's since then (Gox doesn't count BTW)  So I think it could happen.  In fact, I would even say there is a good chance that once we hit a major bull run we will never see $500 or even $600 again.  

But what can I say.  I have been told I need to change my user name to "BullChick!"  

[Hpotsirc]

1-Hour RSI-Trendline on BFX broken, getting excited here  

[JayJuanGee]

i got a really good feeling about breaking through 490 in the next few hours.

here we go!!

i'm so excited.

and i just can't hide it

i'm about to lose control and i think i like it!

And what if we never see the 400's again!  

Indeed.
I am pretty sure that there is only a little chance that we will ever again see $400.
As we know, nothing is impossible - but imo - $400 is really close to impossible.

Cheers

For about a week, I have been holding onto a certain quantity of fiat anticipating that the market could go below $450.. ... but it seems less and less likely that prices are going to cross down there.  If I could rest assured that we would NOT cross into the $400s again, I would put that fiat into BTC.  However, at the moment, I am NOT that confident, so I am going to hold my little bit of fiat in reserve, just in case.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[elg]

me like so bull

[KeyserSoze]

In fact, I would even say there is a good chance that once we hit a major bull run we will never see $500 or even $600 again.  

I hear ya. I try to keep BTC and cash so either way the price goes I feel ahead of the game. I'm almost out of cash so I'd be delighted to see the moon.

[adamstgBit]

HEY HEY HEY

who's putting the breaks on the meltup?

 

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

HEY HEY HEY

who's putting the breaks on the meltup?

 

The thousands of miners, who have been holding and are getting more and more anxious to sell, if the price seems to rise a little?

[podyx]

If we are creeping above 500 tomorrow I might actually enter with my last fiat

Was expecting a leg down by now

[Pruden]

Did you brake test the train before departing?

[roslinpl]

HEY HEY HEY

who's putting the breaks on the meltup?

 

The thousands of miners, who have been holding and are getting more and more anxious to sell, if the price seems to rise a little?

no worries, we must gain some speed one day
Anyway I am sure we are heading in the right direction

[adamstgBit]

Did you brake test the train before departing?

its not like we need breaks, this is the BITCOIN TRAIN!

[Carra23]

I am pretty sure that there is only a little chance that we will ever again see $400.
As we know, nothing is impossible - but imo - $400 is really close to impossible.

I was somewhat confident of 400, but Adam saying the same has pretty much snuffed out any hope

[windjc]

This board is so bullish its amazing. A testimony to bitcoin indeed.

I don't know to make of it. On one hand, all this bullish sentiment should mean that we haven't capitulated yet.

But I know that's not a complete picture.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Thursday April 24

Prediction valid for: Thursday 2014-04-24, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3059 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 487 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was rather good, (S = 0.0039 W = 0.742), and not too much below the previous trend line (by 54 CNY).  It seems still valid to use a straight-line trend, fitted by weighted least squares to the last five points, Apr/19--23.  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/19, A = 3151.11 and B = -18.42.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.28 CNY/USD. It was 6.28, 6.34, 6.27, 6.25, 6.26 at the last four Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-04-22, 22:35 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Wednesday 2014-04-23, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3112 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3058 CNY
Error: 54 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 494 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 487 USD
Error: 7 USD
 
NOTE: "Why should someone who knows something conceal it?"
  -- Sumerian "proverb", from an Assyrian school exercise collection

[lynn_402]

This board is so bullish its amazing. A testimony to bitcoin indeed.

I don't know to make of it. On one hand, all this bullish sentiment should mean that we haven't capitulated yet.

But I know that's not a complete picture.

I'm quite sure that even if Bitcoin was to fall to 10$, there'd be as much bullish sentiments all along the way down.
It is too unique and filled with potential, for people to simply view it as if it was a stock and react accordingly.