I think it’s maybe a good idea to set yourself a fiat value in sales and then try to hit that, rather than a certain amount of bitcoin you sell. How much fiat do you need to satisfy your needs for the next four years (from end of 2025) until we get ready to do it all again.
So, you are following a different path from JJG, which is primarily focused on the BTC part of the stash.
Of course, the selling is activated by triggering some fiat-denominated values. But I guess it is a consequence, rather than the trigger.
I tend to believe in the case of USD debasement you could sell too early.
As always, the Wall Observer will be a fun place to see the wild emotions of fellow bitcoin bros.
As always. We are here for this, after all.
I think the 4-year cycles will be more and more subdued as time goes on. Going from 3.125 to 1.5625 isn't like going from 25 to 12.5. Proportional effect isn't applicable IMO: the ratio of "new" to "old" bitcoin does matter, and I believe the effects of halvings will get negligible (close to zero) long before that ratio goes to zero.
I've said this before, long before (and therefore independently from) the ETFs. But the introduction of spot ETFs will, in my scenario, act as an additional stabilizer, leveling out the big halving waves even more than they would have on their own.
So you are saying that BTC is becoming increasingly "stable?"
I doubt that as a general proposition you are incorrect; however, you do seem to be giving way too much weight to the ongoing and persistent UPpity potential of dee cornz and also a likelihood that similar kinds of battles, misinformation, FOMO, momentum following (and manipulation) is going to continue to occur in bitcoinlandia, merely with LARGER players, including that bitcoin likely still has less than 1% of world-wide adoption, and even likely pretty low percentages of financial insiders, even though some of them are in a more intense battle to fron-run the cornz in ways that many of us longer term coiners have already front run them... ..
In udder wurds, I doubt that there is as much "stability" and market "maturity" as you are striving to prognosticate
(and I am not even yet going to proclaim your SOMA wannabe guru status as nutso.. I am going to keep this civil..
#nohomo) 
good luck with your stability theory. You are going to need it.[edited out]
Even if the price crashed all the way down to $10k, those 160 bitcoins would still be worth $1.6m at rock bottom while you continued to hodl, waiting for the inevitable next bull market.
Of course, when any of us get into our elderly years where we might be more fragile and/or subjected to needs of liquidity, we may well need to keep some of our extra value in cash.. but like you said, if you already have a decent amount in other assets, then you may well be able to run the risk of having most of the rest, even the cushion in bitcoin.
Another thing that we might determine as a curse or a blessing is that BTC prices are not likely to be falling below the 200WMA for extended periods of time, and the mere fact that we had a bit of an aberation between mid 2022 and October 2023 in which we spent a lot of that time below the 200-WMA, that does not indicate that we are likely to go back below the 200-WMA, and furthermore the 200-WMA continues to go up at about $33 per day ($100 every 3 days), and we are currently at $31,200.
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy It is not unrealistic to have some reliance on past bottoms, yet at the same time to keep some value in cash - even though you seem like you don't want to do that.. but whatever, that is your choice...
you could also plug whatever your numbers are into the sustainable withdrawal tool.. and if they were to happen to be 160 BTC, even at an annualized withdrawal rate of 6%, that gives you right around 0.8 BTC per month to withdraw, which currently is about $42k per month, so even if you are spending half of that amount, you are well within the range of sustainable withdraw in such a way that you should not have to worry about ever running out of BTC.. .. and if you were to worry about 6% annualized being too high (which I personally believe that it is not.. but the tool also reduces the amount of the BTC that you can withdraw if the BTC price goes below 25% above the 200-WMA) then you could reduce your withdrawal rate down to 4%... .
Having extra BTC gives all kinds of cushion.
When the price hits $100k each, as it surely will, your nest egg will be worth $16m and that's just a start. You could afford to take a 25% dividend of $4m and still have $12m in your stash. That $4m represents another even greater lifestyle improvement. Even if the price crashes all the way down to $30k your 120 remaining coins would still be worth $3.6 million rock bottom with nowhere to go but up.
Sure, anything can happen, but I doubt that we are going below $30k again.. and yeah, if the price goes up to $100k then the 200-WMA likely is going to be getting close to $40k.. .. but yeah, who knows.. I surely am not opposed to pulling out some BTC on the way up and using those kinds of raking tools too... some variation of the one that
I already described and fillippone linked
a Google spreadsheet so guys can plug in their own numbers.. whether they choose out to rake and not buy back or perhaps to anticipate some kind of a buy back strategy.
As you see, you can take regular dividends and still see your investment grow. If you're at that point of your life where lifestyle is more important than acquiring more wealth, go ahead and enjoy the dividends. If inter-generational wealth is more important, by all means re-invest your dividends by continuing to hodl.
I agree that Bitcoin gives a lot of options, especially once one has a cushion and especially if he is still attempting to withdraw with reason if the cushion is not as great, but there are a lot of ways that bitcoin has tended to grow way greater than traditional withdrawal frameworks would expect.. .. and yeah the past is not guaranteeing the future, even though bitcoin still does appear to be amongest the best of asymmetric upside bets (if not the best, even these days)..
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