Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinsrus]

Fucking China and all that BS.

When in the fucking fuck fuck can we just move on. All this bullshit with news and dumps. Idiots first class, first class morons. I'd expect this kind of behaviour with alt-coins, not BTC.

I am about to stop checking out bitstamp or BTC forums for the whole month... and return to see what has changed, cause this shit just makes me blood boil.

Relax man, there is a good side to every bs event.  Remember, China got us to 1000.  If it werent for it reaching that high, I do not think that btc would have gotten so much publicity (as it did).  Think of it as an opportunity to buy.  Just be patient (I was once the same way, "I just want progression now.")

[chromosoma]

i dont now why , but it is so pleasant to see red bars growing...so satisfying:)

[ChrisML]

Fucking China and all that BS.

When in the fucking fuck fuck can we just move on. All this bullshit with news and dumps. Idiots first class, first class morons. I'd expect this kind of behaviour with alt-coins, not BTC.

I am about to stop checking out bitstamp or BTC forums for the whole month... and return to see what has changed, cause this shit just makes me blood boil.

Relax man, there is a good side to every bs event.  Remember, China got us to 1000.  If it werent for it reaching that high, I do not think it would have gotten so much publicity.  Think of it as an opportunity to buy.  Just be patient (I was once the same way, "I just want progression now."

I have been buying shitloads. I bought at $430 two months ago. I bought at $700 three months ago. It's not much, but having 25 BTC's while watching these price movements and hearing all the China BS does make me a bit mad. China did not bring us to 1000,-. MTGox did. They also brought us back to these low levels.

We need to break free from China. Since they are starting to look like the new MTgox.

[spooderman]

i bought something with bitcoin yesterday

fulfilling the self-fulfilling prophecy?

why the F not!

 

You did WHAT?!?

utilized the bitcoin network to efficiently convert a small amount of CAD into BTC to pay for a toy.

girl u cray, bitcorn is for getting rich quock, not for actually buying things.

[magicmexican]

Probably some boring exchange announcement incoming

[JayJuanGee]

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

[dreamspark]

ah Chinas buying again, quick everyone buy back. lol

[Adrian-x]

Though the great thing about linear regression is that as long as the price starts out at 0, the slope can't ever be negative, so all is well, and all will forever be well so long as there is a non-zero trading price. Infinite profits ahead, guaranteed.

Eg.with Auroracoin the slope is already negative. Linear regression could not prevent it.

Hm, that points out a problem with using linear regression on all the monthly points.

Suppose two items A, B that start out both at the same price 1$. Item A then grows steadily to 1000$ over 2 years.  Item B shoots up to 2000$ on the first month and then decays steadily to 1000$ in the next 23 months.

Linear regression will give a positive slope for item A and a negative slope for item B, even though both increased by a factor of 1000 over that time span.

On the other hand, consider item C that starts out at 1000$, drops to 1$ on the first month and recovers steadily to 1000$ over the next 23 months.  Linear regression would give positive slope.

These examples do not prove that linear regression is "wrong", but should make one aware that its meaning is not what one may think.

"Your results are not right. They are not even wrong." --some famous scientist reviewing the work of some colleague

Negative linear regression forecasts like this are critical in projecting the beta arbitrage opportunities with alts. Once market movers improve here it becomes a mining race again. And looking at the mining profitability data Slippery Slope follows this reversal happened on the 15th of this month as alt mining is now out of high risk and now motivated by profit. Alts are not so much a buy and hold opportunity for miners but a sell above the trend line opportunity.

[KFR]

Spot on, Adrian. 

[keithers]

Good time to add a little more to your holdings. Especially LTC in the single digits

[igorr]

Just holding   

[KFR]

BTW Adam where's the poll option for pure crypto bug?

[prophetx]

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

[Ultros]

Just holding   

Where is that blue/red chart you spammed like 443 times already? Are you sick?

[Adrian-x]

I suppose that, in the early days, sites like exchanges and online casinos would have a single bitcoin address for bitcoin deposits, and all clients would transfer bitcoins to it (using the decimal satoshi amount to identify their deposits); whereas now such sites commonly generate a new unique address for each client and/or each deposit.  Is this correct?

Somewhat I still use services who give me a lifetime bitcoin address and fiat services who require I identify my deposit with a unique amount.  I don't like it and presume it is moving the way you predict.

[JorgeStolfi]

Do you happen to like it in the academia when somebody who has no experience on the subject that you have been researching for months, uses childish non-real world examples to prove that in some cases the model you have been researching and using with incredible precision, would give strange results?

Sorry, we teachers develop a bad habit of simplifying 40 years of experience with a tool into childish examples.

What would your incredibly precise model say about this real-world (in more than one sense!) example:



What difference do you see between Apr/1997 and Jan/2000 in this example?

[JayJuanGee]

I cant imagine the butthurt from the people who bought all along the way down and are still holding  

If you bought every week from 1000$ to 450$ today, your average cost per bitcoin should be around 640$ so you are down 30% and you need a 40% increase in price to be even

Your average cost is going down right now

If you bought at the dips, but lets think of the bulls (the ones who cry CCMF, with every bull-trap) who buy when there is somewhat of a price increase, your average cost per bitcoin would be around 800$

I fit the buying all the way down scenario fairly well.  I began buying at about $1,200 b/c I got my first 1.24 BTC through Localbitcoins.com in the end of November 2013.

Mostly, ever since, I have been buying on the way down - even though i missed a few buying opportunities here and there to buy more when the price was lower and to refrain from buying when the price was higher.

Today my average buy-in price (including fees) is a little less than $605.  I am on the edge of buying a little bit more - yet I am thinking we may get down to $420, the way this seems to be going.... not sure when to pull the trigger on the next buy, exactly.

If I panic sold today, I would be about 28% down (including fees).

not a good idea...

What's NOT a good idea?  What are you doing and have you done regarding your BTC investment long term and/or short term?

[spooderman]

Did anyone make that bet with risto? Now is teh time!

[Adrian-x]

Until a better system than fiat actually takes hold I'm putting my faith in the logic that any better system will prevail (it was an act of faith when I first started mining Bitcoin). Until then I the exponential price trend to continue, it can only be stalled  by responsible fiat creation, and that is unlikely even if TPTB succeed in unification of all central banks.

Personally, I think there's a preponderance likelihood that BTC will become something like the IMF SDR within 5-10 years.  It will become fiat.  I consider that a disastrous outcome, so I'm planning to diversify -- into MRO for now, and increasingly as it starts to get some traction and start-up risk declines.  On the other hand, it will be a beneficial outcome in terms of BTC investment value, and monetary utility, so I don't plan to convert entirely.  I just think BTC will have too much confiscation risk in future, for lack of anonymity.

If BTC has adequate evolutionary fitness to defend its moat, the SDR scenario seems almost inevitable, from my game-theoretically naive scenario analysis.  The exponential growth will continue until it reaches roughly the half-saturation point, if that is the case.  I'm thinking that's about twice as high as slipperyslope's model, from dead reckoning and Fisher's quantity theory.
 

I'm less concerned with fractional reserve banking using Bitcoin as the IMF's SDR. I know how fiat works and the downside risk I'll avoid that. We now have alts.  I'm happy to pay the confiscation tax you predict the trade off is there will be checks and balances that governments have to work with as a result and that is a win.

[JayJuanGee]

Did anyone make that bet with risto? Now is teh time!

He did NOT really make a bet.  He spouted out some words that appeared to the average person to have been a proposal for a bet, but when push came to shove, Rpietila was NOT willing to back up his words with any dinero - only back up his words with more words that amounted to   some lame excuses and mumbo jumbo.