Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wachtwoord]

I'm always puzzled by the way that Huobi trades. It's always two large orders suddenly appear on both sides of the book and get 1 yuan away from each other to create this tiny tiny spread and then they trade with eachother somehow.

Someone told me (Maybe Aminorex?) that this happens frequently in the USD market. It looks strange though. You would think that sellers would attempt to get buyers to pay more and move their wall up. It seems to me like sellers are trying to keep the prices down (which of course is not in their interest).

in general the market wants to find THE value and stay there, problem is bitcoin is always growing... so every once in a while we have a "bubble" and then bitcoins looking for its value again, we always overshoot on the up side and the down side, and bitcoin keeps growing...

this is why all the volatility.

I see bitcoin calming down and staying steady onces its completely taken over all monetary transactions, because i think in 100 years or so that what will happen bitcoin 4.2.9 will be running and my transactions from 2011- 2150 will be forever recorded on the blockhchain

100 years? The protocol will surely be broken by then unless there are major code changes to update the wallet encryption algorithm, etc. I would be suprised if it even lasts 20 years.

The things you state under unless are almost guaranteed to happen.

[edwardspitz]

I'm always puzzled by the way that Huobi trades. It's always two large orders suddenly appear on both sides of the book and get 1 yuan away from each other to create this tiny tiny spread and then they trade with eachother somehow.

Someone told me (Maybe Aminorex?) that this happens frequently in the USD market. It looks strange though. You would think that sellers would attempt to get buyers to pay more and move their wall up. It seems to me like sellers are trying to keep the prices down (which of course is not in their interest).

in general the market wants to find THE value and stay there, problem is bitcoin is always growing... so every once in a while we have a "bubble" and then bitcoins looking for its value again, we always overshoot on the up side and the down side, and bitcoin keeps growing...

this is why all the volatility.

I see bitcoin calming down and staying steady onces its completely taken over all monetary transactions, because i think in 100 years or so that what will happen bitcoin 4.2.9 will be running and my transactions from 2011- 2150 will be forever recorded on the blockhchain i'll be dead taking at lest 1BTC with me to the grave because afterlife!  

It would be nice with a breather after these past months   BTW it was derpinheimer who mentioned similar behavior in USD markets... It was back on page 5645  

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know which will happen. All I know is that the next 1-2 years is not going to be productive for traders.

I'm bull trapped at $600 (ALL IN, what I can afford to lose). I'll not sell lower and I will buy more only under $100/BTC. ... so I'll not trade range 101-599.

Your description of your position does NOT make too much financial sense (unless you are leaving out some details) b/c the price is NOT likely to go below $300.  If your cost per BTC is $600, then you would likely be considerably advantaged to buy more when the prices are lower, buying more anywhere between $300 and $450 will significantly bring down your average price per BTC.

Currently my average price per BTC is about $600 too; however, I am disinclined at this time in my thinking to buy anymore BTC between $450 and $600 b/c I have already bought several times in this price range.. so I am getting a little tired of buying in this price range, and I would rather get more bang for my buck.  ON the other hand, if I can rest assured that BTC prices are gong to go up, I will buy some moar in this price range. 

I just hate to buy now, and then run out of fiat in the event that prices were to go down into the $300s.

[wachtwoord]

While you guys are arguing on here, there is some very important discussions going on at our sister site: The BTC-e trollbox  

Okay, and given the 4% gay rate, does this imply Bitcoin goes up, down or sideways?

[TERA]

If EC is broken before we get around to doing a difficult planned and controlled upgrade to a different algorithm, then everyone's wealth will be permanently lost and redistributed. Bitcoin could re-emerge with new code but it will be a reset with different players. It will be a race to buy back in to the new bitcoin. Your investing decisions today would be irrelevant.

[JayJuanGee]

i think all off you are wrong, nobody can predict price of BTC. And i can bet on this. it can go to 5$ in a day and back to 400$, it can also go to 1000$ in a day and back to 400$, you will never know unless you are big fish in the pond and you have some real deal piece of information or some big ammount of money.

I agree with you to some extent that no one can predict the prices, except possibly the biggest of whales.  Yet, even the biggest of whales are only willing to lose so much money in the event that they attempt to manipulate beyond what the market is willing to follow.  Surely a big player with multiple millions of dollars that s/he is willing to lose could play this manipulation game a little more seriously, but likely would have trouble creating anymore than 10-20% daily volatility.

[adamstgBit]

If EC is broken before we get around to doing a difficult planned and controlled upgrade to a different algorithm, then everyone's wealth will be permanently lost and redistributed. Bitcoin could re-emerge with new code but it will be a reset with different players. It will be a race to buy back in to the new bitcoin. Your investing decisions today would be irrelevant.

no way

if we ever "reset" it will reset back to a checkpoint

you have no idea how permanent the blockchain will be dude it will last as long as we need it too

[TERA]

If EC is broken before we get around to doing a difficult planned and controlled upgrade to a different algorithm, then everyone's wealth will be permanently lost and redistributed. Bitcoin could re-emerge with new code but it will be a reset with different players. It will be a race to buy back in to the new bitcoin. Your investing decisions today would be irrelevant.

no way

if we ever "reset" it will be back to a checkpoint

you have no idea how permanent the blockchain will be dude it will last as long as we need it too

Resetting back to a checkpoint does not solve the fundamental problem of now everyone knows everyone else's private keys and there is no way to distinguish between the owners

[adamstgBit]

If EC is broken before we get around to doing a difficult planned and controlled upgrade to a different algorithm, then everyone's wealth will be permanently lost and redistributed. Bitcoin could re-emerge with new code but it will be a reset with different players. It will be a race to buy back in to the new bitcoin. Your investing decisions today would be irrelevant.

no way

if we ever "reset" it will be back to a checkpoint

you have no idea how permanent the blockchain will be dude it will last as long as we need it too

Resetting back to a checkpoint does not solve the fundamental problem of now everyone knows everyone else's private keys and there is no way to distinguish between the owners

...

now your just trolling me

[adamstgBit]

 

[edwardspitz]

Quite amazing how Tera nows exactly what will happen in the next 2 years.

...but not more crazy compared to people who (constantly) claim that we are only a few days away from going to the moon I think TERA is basing her prediction based on at the past where there has been long periods with less activity (in between bubbles).

There are no women on the Internet, let alone in bitcoin.

Ups, sorry if I offended anyone. The Swedes have recently invented a new word to replace he/she. That would sometimes be useful to have in English 

[adamstgBit]

i dont have all the anwers but if bitcoin proves anything its that their IS an answer to all problems

[Post-Cosmic]

[..] ..except possibly the biggest of whales. [..]

[uhoh]

May the 4th be with you all!

[JayJuanGee]

I'm always puzzled by the way that Huobi trades. It's always two large orders suddenly appear on both sides of the book and get 1 yuan away from each other to create this tiny tiny spread and then they trade with eachother somehow.

Someone told me (Maybe Aminorex?) that this happens frequently in the USD market. It looks strange though. You would think that sellers would attempt to get buyers to pay more and move their wall up. It seems to me like sellers are trying to keep the prices down (which of course is not in their interest).

in general the market wants to find THE value and stay there, problem is bitcoin is always growing... so every once in a while we have a "bubble" and then bitcoins looking for its value again, we always overshoot on the up side and the down side, and bitcoin keeps growing...

this is why all the volatility.

I see bitcoin calming down and staying steady onces its completely taken over all monetary transactions, because i think in 100 years or so that what will happen bitcoin 4.2.9 will be running and my transactions from 2011- 2150 will be forever recorded on the blockhchain i'll be dead taking at lest 1BTC with me to the grave because afterlife!   

You are quite hilarious, and to be somewhat serious, one of the problems with bitcoin seems to be that through time there are going to many bitcoin HODLers taking bitcoins with them to the afterlife, until we get some better security vehicles.  I think that if I croaked today, at least half of my bitcoin stash would become unclaimed.  Even if I suffered from some memory loss regarding my bitcoin would cause significant recovery problems.

I am definitely looking forward to better bitcoin wallets.

[JayJuanGee]

Quite amazing how Tera nows exactly what will happen in the next 2 years.

...but not more crazy compared to people who (constantly) claim that we are only a few days away from going to the moon I think TERA is basing her prediction based on at the past where there has been long periods with less activity (in between bubbles).

I see something similar, coin distribution is what is happening and this process is hindered by coagulation, there are players in the space who will become distortedly wealthy if the market cap increase, hence they have too big a stake, we will need to see this experiment look like it's going to fail before those hoarders help distribute coins so distribution ends up resembling a normal distribution curve. I'm not predicting anything just think there is a roughly 30% chance something like this happens.

It's the true believes who survive.

You may be able to shake coins from people who bought recently, but it is NOT going to be easy to shake coins from those who have already experienced 10x or 100x appreciation.  Those HODLers would NOT have any major incentive to get rid of significant portions of their portfolio, unless you say that we are going into the double digits, which would be difficult for any manipulator to accomplish without losing significant capital.in the process of attempting to get prices there.

[edwardspitz]

I'm always puzzled by the way that Huobi trades. It's always two large orders suddenly appear on both sides of the book and get 1 yuan away from each other to create this tiny tiny spread and then they trade with eachother somehow.

Someone told me (Maybe Aminorex?) that this happens frequently in the USD market. It looks strange though. You would think that sellers would attempt to get buyers to pay more and move their wall up. It seems to me like sellers are trying to keep the prices down (which of course is not in their interest).

in general the market wants to find THE value and stay there, problem is bitcoin is always growing... so every once in a while we have a "bubble" and then bitcoins looking for its value again, we always overshoot on the up side and the down side, and bitcoin keeps growing...

this is why all the volatility.

I see bitcoin calming down and staying steady onces its completely taken over all monetary transactions, because i think in 100 years or so that what will happen bitcoin 4.2.9 will be running and my transactions from 2011- 2150 will be forever recorded on the blockhchain i'll be dead taking at lest 1BTC with me to the grave because afterlife!   

You are quite hilarious, and to be somewhat serious, one of the problems with bitcoin seems to be that through time there are going to many bitcoin HODLers taking bitcoins with them to the afterlife, until we get some better security vehicles.  I think that if I croaked today, at least half of my bitcoin stash would become unclaimed.  Even if I suffered from some memory loss regarding my bitcoin would cause significant recovery problems.

I am definitely looking forward to better bitcoin wallets.

(...) there are going to many bitcoin HODLers taking bitcoins with them to the afterlife

That's what true hodlers do But yes I have been thinking the same thing. So many coins must get lost one way or the other.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

off topic.. but still, happy star wars day! i know there must be fans in here




may the force be with us and, most of all, with Bitcoin! ^^

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation