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Question: When $60K? (EST time zone)
Feb. 21 - 7 (6.3%)
Feb. 22 - 19 (17.1%)
Feb. 23 - 13 (11.7%)
Feb. 24 - 9 (8.1%)
Feb. 25 - 8 (7.2%)
Feb. 26 - 9 (8.1%)
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After March - 11 (9.9%)
Never - 7 (6.3%)
Total Voters: 111

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25179773 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
boumalo
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May 04, 2014, 12:12:16 PM

this is the first time ever I see a 1,5k Wall on Huobi.

beginning to scare me.  Sad

there, I took my walls down just for you  Wink

thank you, what a relief.  Cheesy

*buy buy buy


YES!!!!    I have been wondering how low this bear trap is going to go b/c I would prefer to buy a lil MOAR at the lowest point in this series. I was thinking that if it gets down to $420-ish in the next 24 hours... that is about as low as we can expect... absent some kind of negative news.... which negative news (or FUD) is always possible to help to drive some additional downward price pressure(s). 

In sum, I am thinking maybe to buy a little bit at $420-ish... if we get there.  I welcome to hear any other theories about the extent of downard price movement, here.





If you think it is a bear trap and we will go up a lot soon you should buy now!

We have been in a downtrend for a while with a few bull traps
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chessnut
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May 04, 2014, 12:16:16 PM

I don't understand why people do this. They want to buy a few coins but only if it reaches 420. So they're gonna watch the price hoover around 430 for a day knowing it might very well go up again from there. So when the price does go up they either have no coins or panic buy at 440.
Is saving 10 dollars per coin really that important? Assuming the price goes up from that point you have profit either way. And if it doesn't reach 420 you messed up.

I tend to agree. It's not about a particular price, it's about high probability reversal signals. when you got the signal, just buy at a price you think you can get.

There are sometimes prices where one should expect reversals, but its usually best to wait for evidence of the reversal in that case none the less.
ShroomsKit
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May 04, 2014, 12:17:03 PM

200? Because at 200 it suddenly goes up again? Not 210? Or 180? Or 350?

200 is target. Could be 210, could be 180. could not be 350.

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

Target for what? What happens at 200?
mooncake
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May 04, 2014, 12:19:01 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.
eiskalt
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May 04, 2014, 12:24:39 PM

Target for what?

For bitcoin price.

What happens at 200?

Bitcoin price reaches support. You may consider buying then.
ShroomsKit
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May 04, 2014, 12:26:28 PM

Target for what?

For bitcoin price.

What happens at 200?

Bitcoin price reaches support. You may consider buying then.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?
dreamspark
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May 04, 2014, 12:27:22 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.
JorgeStolfi
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May 04, 2014, 12:30:14 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.
rpietila
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May 04, 2014, 12:31:01 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
eiskalt
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May 04, 2014, 12:32:00 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley
p0peji
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May 04, 2014, 12:33:24 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.
All I am seeing is weird bid-walls popping up and goign away without actually buying coins. I mean if you really want to buy coins, why not remove the bid walls, let the price drop and buy on the way down?
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May 04, 2014, 12:34:25 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?
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May 04, 2014, 12:37:29 PM

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.
mooncake
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May 04, 2014, 12:41:04 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?
ChrisML
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May 04, 2014, 12:41:11 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Keep it like that, for you're own sake.
ShroomsKit
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May 04, 2014, 12:43:14 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?
eiskalt
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May 04, 2014, 12:51:47 PM

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

Thank you very much. I will consider your kind support and maybe use the provided link, when we reach 200$/BTC.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

Did you loose too much since the last ATH?
rpietila
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May 04, 2014, 12:52:01 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:

- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.

The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.

So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.

These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.
ChartBuddy
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May 04, 2014, 01:00:43 PM


Explanation
Cassius
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May 04, 2014, 01:03:15 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.
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