Bitcoin Forum
October 31, 2024, 11:22:45 PM *
News: Bitcoin Pumpkin Carving Contest
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

Pages: « 1 ... 6202 6203 6204 6205 6206 6207 6208 6209 6210 6211 6212 6213 6214 6215 6216 6217 6218 6219 6220 6221 6222 6223 6224 6225 6226 6227 6228 6229 6230 6231 6232 6233 6234 6235 6236 6237 6238 6239 6240 6241 6242 6243 6244 6245 6246 6247 6248 6249 6250 6251 [6252] 6253 6254 6255 6256 6257 6258 6259 6260 6261 6262 6263 6264 6265 6266 6267 6268 6269 6270 6271 6272 6273 6274 6275 6276 6277 6278 6279 6280 6281 6282 6283 6284 6285 6286 6287 6288 6289 6290 6291 6292 6293 6294 6295 6296 6297 6298 6299 6300 6301 6302 ... 33869 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26484109 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
dreamspark
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:27:22 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1003



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:30:14 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:31:01 PM

Until everyone cries gloom and doom, then this bearish market is over.

That already happened a couple of time as well though. But people always want cheaper coins.

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.
eiskalt
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:32:00 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley
p0peji
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 266
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:33:24 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.
All I am seeing is weird bid-walls popping up and goign away without actually buying coins. I mean if you really want to buy coins, why not remove the bid walls, let the price drop and buy on the way down?
dreamspark
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:34:25 PM

Huobi's order book is insane.  Must be kids playing traders while their parents are away.  Or the traders are all drunk.

Yep never seen it quite like this. Any ideas on the cause?
wachtwoord
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:37:29 PM

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.
mooncake
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:41:04 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?
ChrisML
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 308
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:41:11 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Keep it like that, for you're own sake.
ShroomsKit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 500



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:43:14 PM

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?
eiskalt
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 336
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:51:47 PM

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

Thank you very much. I will consider your kind support and maybe use the provided link, when we reach 200$/BTC.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

Did you loose too much since the last ATH?
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 12:52:01 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:

- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.

The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.

So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.

These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.
ChartBuddy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2352
Merit: 1802


1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:00:43 PM


Explanation
Cassius
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031


View Profile WWW
May 04, 2014, 01:03:15 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.
p0peji
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 266
Merit: 250



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:06:24 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

This is very likely, the big money was already in and is now trying to get out with as much profit/least losses as possible.
mooncake
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 434
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:06:35 PM

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming:

- If the price crashes really hard like to 100-200, there are millions of people willing to enter (of course at such a low price and fixed number of coins, not millions can enter..)
- If the price starts to rise, another type of people who look for stability, enter in.

The former leads to the latter. I belonged to the former group who shunned bitcoin in 2011 until it had become ridiculously cheap. Because me and a few (maybe a thousand, or even less, at that time) others bought, the price stabilized at $5 and the rest is history.

So either we somehow start to rise incrementally from here, resulting in an entrance of more and more newcomers, and a bubble, or we first go down, and then rise, resulting in a bubble.

These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low, are the second-last line in saving the price. I think their effect is already in play, and effectively hinders the price from going below 420 unless we are talking about a very high volume. If it is forced below, it will aim to rise back very quickly. This is also observed in the trendlines.

You are talking about the traders and investors group. I would think that many would have heard of btc already.

It will be interesting when the consumer group comes into the picture. Circle is working on this area, I believe. I'm looking forward to the day they roll out their services.
If you notice, it seems btc now benefits merchants more than consumers. Merchants save on credit card fees but consumers cannot benefit unless merchants pass down the savings. When consumers benefit, that will be when the consumer group will come in.
ShroomsKit
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672
Merit: 500



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:22:56 PM

Have you considered throwing dice for your predictions?

Could not find my dice, had to draw lines instead.  Cheesy

I love to help you optimize your analysis capabilities: http://www.random.org/dice/

Now you can stop drawing silly lines.

Thank you very much. I will consider your kind support and maybe use the provided link, when we reach 200$/BTC.

How many millions has your TA made you so far?

Zero millions - I am not trading.  Smiley

Why not? With your amazing TA skills you could be rich in no time. What's stopping you?

Did you loose too much since the last ATH?

I didn't "loose" anything.
So why are you not trading? You know in detail what Bitcoin will do in the future. What is stopping you?
droptable
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 363
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:24:29 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

the userbase is growing.
But the new ones have seen enough burned children to not risk their savings. They go in with small amounts.
boumalo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018


View Profile WWW
May 04, 2014, 01:44:05 PM

It will not change just by the current people passing the bag on. The new cohort of 3.2x more people is what will take it higher.

The current players' desire to have cheaper coins is no more significant then.

For the new cohort to come in, there must be a motivation factor. And what might that be?

I suspect, though I don't know for sure (no doubt others will comment on this):
Lots of new people (aka the "Fresh Fiat" we keep hearing about) are going into bitcoin. We know that the number of new accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain etc is rising significantly, and that must be bringing some new money in.
The problem is that speculative money is leaving bitcoin at the same time. Bitcoin was vastly overpriced and has corrected/is correcting (depending on how bearish you are).
Although it's a gross simplification, I wonder whether the newcomers are more 'normal' buyers, Joe Publics who have heard about Bitcoin and decided to buy a small amount, try it out etc, before perhaps investing more in the future. Whereas the speculative money is at least an order of magnitude greater per person, because these people were trying to make a lot of money at it.
It may be that a proportion of current newcomers become larger investors later on. I'd be interested to know how many day traders here started small before going in heavy enough to make/lost decent money, and how long that took.

TL;DR - growth in user base and fiat is already there, it's just slower and steadier than the speculators running for the door.
-> Relax. Once the speculators have bailed properly ("capitulation") we'll see the underlying growth that was there all along.

Discuss.

The new cohort will be motivate by owning an asset that can't be manipulated by their central government for political purposes and to own an asset that can be easily and cheaply traded around the word
JorgeStolfi
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 910
Merit: 1003



View Profile
May 04, 2014, 01:46:56 PM

The awareness of bitcoin is so much larger now than in the beginning of 2013 that anything can be a catalyst for the next cohort coming [ ... ]  These millions of people who are curious about Bitcoin and are not influenced by the FUD but just observe the price willing to buy low [... ]
How does China fit into this picture?  And the growing list of scams and failures of bitcoin-related ventures?
Pages: « 1 ... 6202 6203 6204 6205 6206 6207 6208 6209 6210 6211 6212 6213 6214 6215 6216 6217 6218 6219 6220 6221 6222 6223 6224 6225 6226 6227 6228 6229 6230 6231 6232 6233 6234 6235 6236 6237 6238 6239 6240 6241 6242 6243 6244 6245 6246 6247 6248 6249 6250 6251 [6252] 6253 6254 6255 6256 6257 6258 6259 6260 6261 6262 6263 6264 6265 6266 6267 6268 6269 6270 6271 6272 6273 6274 6275 6276 6277 6278 6279 6280 6281 6282 6283 6284 6285 6286 6287 6288 6289 6290 6291 6292 6293 6294 6295 6296 6297 6298 6299 6300 6301 6302 ... 33869 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!