Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Leahized]

@sminston_with

I wanted to understand Bitcoin's price multiple relative to each historical cycle top, for the 12 months leading up to those tops. Can this give us some insight as to WHEN and WHAT the top is likely to be (and not to be) this time around?  Example: "Within the next 2 months, how likely is the price to double, giving us that $200k top?"

In 2011, the year prior to the cycle top saw the price multiply hundreds of times (~500x from just 8 months before the price peak).

For each subsequent cycle, as you might have imagined,  the price went through fewer multiples to reach the price peak. Although, the average difference (on a log scale) is less each new cycle.

For the 2011, 2013 and 2016 peak lead-ups, there was a gradual descending of multiples (from the ~100xs to 10xs and lower), with a very sharp downward shift in the final 1-2 months to finally hit 1x (this defines the price peak). BUT - for 2021, this behavior was not observed, and it was more of a trajectory shift around 5-6 months out, followed by a gentler, more gradual approach to the ultimate peak for the final 3 month lead-up.

So what am I doing here? I am (rather qualitatively) examining the CURRENT CYCLE PRICE ACTION (black line), and plotting it as a simulated approach to a hypothetical price peak with assumed timeframes (dates) and prices (in USD). We can then compare these scenarios to the past 12-month lead-ups to historical price peaks.

I did this, and (again, rather qualitatively) binned these into RED, YELLOW or GREEN boxes, based on how likely the scenario seems.


RED: 'Probably Ain't Gonna Happen'

The three scenarios I've deemed 'highly improbable' are boxed in red here; they are:

Nov 8th, $150,000: For starters, the much earlier months (8-12 out) are at an average level that is too low from what I would expect based on the 2011-2013-2017 trend, so seems very conservative in this regard. Second, the black line is touching the historical multiple value NOW where the price should be doing about a 1.5x to reach the cycle top; historically there needs to be some room in the last 3-6 months for the current line to squeeze *under* the previous cycle line; no room here!

Nov 8th, $200,000: Here the black line is already past the 2021 cycle line; there simply isn't enough time  for BTC's price to rise fast enough to drive that black line under the previous line. While may be remotely possible, diminishing returns are real and there seems to have been a structural change between the older cycles and the 2021 cycles. This ain't gonna happen in 2 months like it did in 2017 and prior, sorry.

Nov 8th, $250,000: Same reasoning as the scenario above, basically: while I don't discount the 200-250k range for this cycle, 2 months isn't enough time based on the historical trend.

YELLOW: 'Eh... well... maybe!?'

The three scenarios I've deemed 'moderately likely' are boxed in yellow here; they are:

Jan 8th, $150,000: Here I lend a fair nod to a $150k peak, although I think it is conservative (key word here) - first reason being that, again, the multiples levels for 5-12 months out are shifted quite a bit lower than the previous 3 peaks, where the trend should make the drop smaller (I'd expect at LEAST the 2x level). Second, we still have lots of runway until hitting month 0, leaving room for a more gradual landing or funky changes in structure.

Mar 8th, $150,000: Same reasoning, but this is ULTRA conservative; especially looking at the power law trend of BTC's price. To me this is possible but would indicated almost no bubble at all.



Full Information

[Lucius]

R.I.P. actor Robert Redford.

Unfortunately, great legends leave one after the other, but luckily their roles in some of the best films will remain forever. No matter how good a movie that comes out today is, it can't compare to those that were made in the golden age of Hollywood.

[Leahized]

@Hueristic  - So, only in 'Wall Observer BTC/USD' is this message in a Quote Box with a link underneath it  necessary - but it's not necessary in 'Buy the DIP, and HODL!' with both threads in 'Speculation'!!! Strange  

Do you understand the meaning of wall observer? @Hueristic says it for your good. You should be grateful to him. Showing your mistake.

Stay calm, respect everyone.

[Johnlomape]

There has been news about the rate cut and some people are still skeptical. 
Anticipating on the price of Bitcoin to create more bull candles.

[vapourminer]

And comparing WO with other threads?

there are other threads?

[philipma1957]

paypal is an easy way to kyc coin.  of course you do not fully control it.

But I see no issue in having 10% or less of your corn in PayPal's hands.

I have  btc there.

and off I go to the scrapper.

and back from the scrapper $683 for this load of wire.

maybe 10-12 to do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

and back from the scrapper $683 for this load of wire.

I have so many questions What do you do with the plastic peeled off those wires? That must add up to quite a lot! Why was the wire sold far under the scrap metal price? Did you get old wires or were they new when you bought them?

[Hottiek]

And comparing WO with other threads?

there are other threads?

I got robbed last time I went outside... I will just stay here!
K

[philipma1957]

and back from the scrapper $683 for this load of wire.

I have so many questions What do you do with the plastic peeled off those wires? That must add up to quite a lot! Why was the wire sold far under the scrap metal price? Did you get old wires or were they new when you bought them?

i do not strip the wires.

At the height of 2021 mining black box auctioned 3,000,000 brand new cables.

cat 5
cat 5e
cat 6

i won 2 lots about 33,000 wires weight  of 9300-9400 pounds.

i take them out of the retail bags

https://www.ebay.com/itm/167522755092?

and sell them as in the photo below.

[Findingnemo]

And comparing WO with other threads?

there are other threads?

LOL, That's a Good one.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ESG]

and back from the scrapper $683 for this load of wire.

I have so many questions What do you do with the plastic peeled off those wires? That must add up to quite a lot! Why was the wire sold far under the scrap metal price? Did you get old wires or were they new when you bought them?

i do not strip the wires.

At the height of 2021 mining black box auctioned 3,000,000 brand new cables.

cat 5
cat 5e
cat 6

i won 2 lots about 33,000 wires weight  of 9300-9400 pounds.

i take them out of the retail bags

https://www.ebay.com/itm/167522755092?

and sell them as in the photo below.

oh yes! That was a good investment. Even more investment, was you having kept them for all this time!!

[Hueristic]

An eight-year Bitcoin holder resumed selling after a two-week pause, depositing 1,176 BTC worth $136.2 million to the Hyperliquid trading platform as Bitcoin tested $116,000 resistance levels.

The whale previously executed one of the largest Bitcoin-to-Ethereum rotations in crypto history, trading 35,991 BTC valued at $4.04 billion for 886,371 ETH worth $4.07 billion.

The renewed selling activity comes as BTC Inc CEO David Bailey claimed earlier this month that two massive whales prevented the cryptocurrency from reaching $150,000, with one whale eliminated and another halfway through liquidations.

Multiple dormant Bitcoin addresses from 2011-2012 have awakened recently, creating selling pressure that contributed to Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum above previous highs.

Previous whale activity has shown sophisticated market timing, with one holder selling 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion in coordinated transactions that drove Bitcoin from $115,000 to $111,000 within hours.

The sudden liquidation occurred during weekend trading, when thinner volumes amplify the price impacts of large transactions.

Another early adopter rotated 400 BTC in August, worth approximately $45.5 million, into leveraged Ethereum positions using 3x and 10x leverage across four wallets.

The whale opened combined long positions totaling 68,130 ETH worth $295 million, bridging funds back to the Ethereum mainnet after executing spot market swaps.

Dormant wallet activations accelerated throughout September, with addresses inactive since 2011-2013 transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, including Kraken.

One wallet holding 445 BTC made its first transaction in nearly 13 years, while another containing 480 BTC moved funds for the first time since 2012.

► https://cryptonews.com/news/8-year-bitcoin-holder-offloads-another-136m-following-massive-4b-eth-trade-whales-dumping-again/

Put all of this that is not your words in a Quote!

Why Bitcoin is Surging Today ( 15/09/2025)? Technical Analysis and BTC Price Predictions Point to $160K Target

MACD golden cross signals $160K target on the Bitcoin chart as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations drive institutional demand.

Bitcoin price analysis shows consolidation at $115K resistance with technical patterns supporting Bitcoin price predictions of $150K-$200K.

Bitcoin technical analysis reveals whale accumulation above $114K support, positioning for rally toward historical highs by year-end 2025.

► https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-bitcoin-is-surging-today-technical-analysis-and-btc-price-predictions-point-to-160k-target/

SAME.

chart buddy and honey badger setting up some discounts.

Weds is fed rate.  so

-0.25% holy shit we get fucked very very unlikely
0.00%  a lot of displeasure unlikely

+0.25% some happiness and corn rises most likely      I think this and I think 125k by Friday .

+0.50% more happiness and corn rise bigly less likely
+0.75% this would cause fear very unlikely .

I really want to open the Elijah Craig which mean we needs to pass 130


I also decided to buy a bit of corn today

Investors are betting on a rate cut this month, with CME's FedWatch tool suggesting a roughly 92% chance for a 25 basis point cut ‒ or 0.25 percentage point ‒ and 8% chance for a 0.5 percentage point cut as of last week.

September Cut:
The market strongly favors a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, with high probabilities reflected in the CME FedWatch data.

Future Cuts:
The number of subsequent cuts is less certain, but Fed funds futures are pricing in multiple cuts by the end of the year, with some sources expecting two or three total reductions in 2025.


For Fed Interest Rate Decision Sep 17, 2025:

Target Rate   Current Probability%      
3.75 - 4.00    2.1%   3.6%   
4.00 - 4.25    97.9%   96.4%   


► https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

THE SAME!!!


DO YOU NOT SEE that this can be construed as your reply and not you providing a referenced reply?

It's not that complicated for someone who is supposed to be educated.

@Hueristic  - So, only in 'Wall Observer BTC/USD' is this message in a Quote Box with a link underneath it  necessary - but it's not necessary in 'Buy the DIP, and HODL!' with both threads in 'Speculation'!!! I find that more than strange!  

You really do want to get yourself banned don't you?

Is it because then you can tell yourself that that place is full of assholes instead of admitting to yourself that your just a Dickhead?

[OgNasty]

and back from the scrapper $683 for this load of wire.

I have so many questions What do you do with the plastic peeled off those wires? That must add up to quite a lot! Why was the wire sold far under the scrap metal price? Did you get old wires or were they new when you bought them?

i do not strip the wires.

At the height of 2021 mining black box auctioned 3,000,000 brand new cables.

cat 5
cat 5e
cat 6

i won 2 lots about 33,000 wires weight  of 9300-9400 pounds.

i take them out of the retail bags

https://www.ebay.com/itm/167522755092?

and sell them as in the photo below.

oh yes! That was a good investment. Even more investment, was you having kept them for all this time!!

Pretty insane that you could profit from an investment like that really.  Good on phil for finding this.  I would have probably just given them away to the first person I could find who would take them.  Here I was thinking my pile of cat 5 cables was outrageous...  I only have a few dozen of them.  This is crazy...

I am sad to have my bubble bursted.  I had hoped that phil was peeling the plastic from these cables and then tossing them in his attic for added home insulation or something great like that.  The look on someone's face when they buy a house and then discover miles of cable insulation in their attic would be priceless.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

Today is the day that I've been saying would be the top for Bitcoin for quite some time.  I've actually been eyeballing today for basically the last 4 years.  Now that it is here I don't want to sell any Bitcoin, but I may sell a tiny bit just to stick to the plan...  There's a ton of bullish news out there and with December looking like it will be the MSTR inclusion period, I have mentally begun making excuses that my sell date should be moved to December 16th.  We will see how that plays out for me, but I've definitely started watching the exits.  

[BTCETFInvestor]

An eight-year Bitcoin holder resumed selling after a two-week pause, depositing 1,176 BTC worth $136.2 million to the Hyperliquid trading platform as Bitcoin tested $116,000 resistance levels.

The whale previously executed one of the largest Bitcoin-to-Ethereum rotations in crypto history, trading 35,991 BTC valued at $4.04 billion for 886,371 ETH worth $4.07 billion.

The renewed selling activity comes as BTC Inc CEO David Bailey claimed earlier this month that two massive whales prevented the cryptocurrency from reaching $150,000, with one whale eliminated and another halfway through liquidations.

Multiple dormant Bitcoin addresses from 2011-2012 have awakened recently, creating selling pressure that contributed to Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum above previous highs.

Previous whale activity has shown sophisticated market timing, with one holder selling 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion in coordinated transactions that drove Bitcoin from $115,000 to $111,000 within hours.

The sudden liquidation occurred during weekend trading, when thinner volumes amplify the price impacts of large transactions.

Another early adopter rotated 400 BTC in August, worth approximately $45.5 million, into leveraged Ethereum positions using 3x and 10x leverage across four wallets.

The whale opened combined long positions totaling 68,130 ETH worth $295 million, bridging funds back to the Ethereum mainnet after executing spot market swaps.

Dormant wallet activations accelerated throughout September, with addresses inactive since 2011-2013 transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, including Kraken.

One wallet holding 445 BTC made its first transaction in nearly 13 years, while another containing 480 BTC moved funds for the first time since 2012.

► https://cryptonews.com/news/8-year-bitcoin-holder-offloads-another-136m-following-massive-4b-eth-trade-whales-dumping-again/

Put all of this that is not your words in a Quote!

Why Bitcoin is Surging Today ( 15/09/2025)? Technical Analysis and BTC Price Predictions Point to $160K Target

MACD golden cross signals $160K target on the Bitcoin chart as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations drive institutional demand.

Bitcoin price analysis shows consolidation at $115K resistance with technical patterns supporting Bitcoin price predictions of $150K-$200K.

Bitcoin technical analysis reveals whale accumulation above $114K support, positioning for rally toward historical highs by year-end 2025.

► https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-bitcoin-is-surging-today-technical-analysis-and-btc-price-predictions-point-to-160k-target/

SAME.

chart buddy and honey badger setting up some discounts.

Weds is fed rate.  so

-0.25% holy shit we get fucked very very unlikely
0.00%  a lot of displeasure unlikely

+0.25% some happiness and corn rises most likely      I think this and I think 125k by Friday .

+0.50% more happiness and corn rise bigly less likely
+0.75% this would cause fear very unlikely .

I really want to open the Elijah Craig which mean we needs to pass 130


I also decided to buy a bit of corn today

Investors are betting on a rate cut this month, with CME's FedWatch tool suggesting a roughly 92% chance for a 25 basis point cut ‒ or 0.25 percentage point ‒ and 8% chance for a 0.5 percentage point cut as of last week.

September Cut:
The market strongly favors a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, with high probabilities reflected in the CME FedWatch data.

Future Cuts:
The number of subsequent cuts is less certain, but Fed funds futures are pricing in multiple cuts by the end of the year, with some sources expecting two or three total reductions in 2025.


For Fed Interest Rate Decision Sep 17, 2025:

Target Rate   Current Probability%      
3.75 - 4.00    2.1%   3.6%   
4.00 - 4.25    97.9%   96.4%   


► https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

THE SAME!!!


DO YOU NOT SEE that this can be construed as your reply and not you providing a referenced reply?

It's not that complicated for someone who is supposed to be educated.

@Hueristic  - So, only in 'Wall Observer BTC/USD' is this message in a Quote Box with a link underneath it  necessary - but it's not necessary in 'Buy the DIP, and HODL!' with both threads in 'Speculation'!!! I find that more than strange!  

You really do want to get yourself banned don't you?

Is it because then you can tell yourself that that place is full of assholes instead of admitting to yourself that your just a Dickhead?

Geniality on full display...  

[Hueristic]

An eight-year Bitcoin holder resumed selling after a two-week pause, depositing 1,176 BTC worth $136.2 million to the Hyperliquid trading platform as Bitcoin tested $116,000 resistance levels.

The whale previously executed one of the largest Bitcoin-to-Ethereum rotations in crypto history, trading 35,991 BTC valued at $4.04 billion for 886,371 ETH worth $4.07 billion.

The renewed selling activity comes as BTC Inc CEO David Bailey claimed earlier this month that two massive whales prevented the cryptocurrency from reaching $150,000, with one whale eliminated and another halfway through liquidations.

Multiple dormant Bitcoin addresses from 2011-2012 have awakened recently, creating selling pressure that contributed to Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain momentum above previous highs.

Previous whale activity has shown sophisticated market timing, with one holder selling 24,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion in coordinated transactions that drove Bitcoin from $115,000 to $111,000 within hours.

The sudden liquidation occurred during weekend trading, when thinner volumes amplify the price impacts of large transactions.

Another early adopter rotated 400 BTC in August, worth approximately $45.5 million, into leveraged Ethereum positions using 3x and 10x leverage across four wallets.

The whale opened combined long positions totaling 68,130 ETH worth $295 million, bridging funds back to the Ethereum mainnet after executing spot market swaps.

Dormant wallet activations accelerated throughout September, with addresses inactive since 2011-2013 transferring Bitcoin to exchanges, including Kraken.

One wallet holding 445 BTC made its first transaction in nearly 13 years, while another containing 480 BTC moved funds for the first time since 2012.

► https://cryptonews.com/news/8-year-bitcoin-holder-offloads-another-136m-following-massive-4b-eth-trade-whales-dumping-again/

Put all of this that is not your words in a Quote!

Why Bitcoin is Surging Today ( 15/09/2025)? Technical Analysis and BTC Price Predictions Point to $160K Target

MACD golden cross signals $160K target on the Bitcoin chart as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations drive institutional demand.

Bitcoin price analysis shows consolidation at $115K resistance with technical patterns supporting Bitcoin price predictions of $150K-$200K.

Bitcoin technical analysis reveals whale accumulation above $114K support, positioning for rally toward historical highs by year-end 2025.

► https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-bitcoin-is-surging-today-technical-analysis-and-btc-price-predictions-point-to-160k-target/

SAME.

chart buddy and honey badger setting up some discounts.

Weds is fed rate.  so

-0.25% holy shit we get fucked very very unlikely
0.00%  a lot of displeasure unlikely

+0.25% some happiness and corn rises most likely      I think this and I think 125k by Friday .

+0.50% more happiness and corn rise bigly less likely
+0.75% this would cause fear very unlikely .

I really want to open the Elijah Craig which mean we needs to pass 130


I also decided to buy a bit of corn today

Investors are betting on a rate cut this month, with CME's FedWatch tool suggesting a roughly 92% chance for a 25 basis point cut ‒ or 0.25 percentage point ‒ and 8% chance for a 0.5 percentage point cut as of last week.

September Cut:
The market strongly favors a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, with high probabilities reflected in the CME FedWatch data.

Future Cuts:
The number of subsequent cuts is less certain, but Fed funds futures are pricing in multiple cuts by the end of the year, with some sources expecting two or three total reductions in 2025.


For Fed Interest Rate Decision Sep 17, 2025:

Target Rate   Current Probability%      
3.75 - 4.00    2.1%   3.6%   
4.00 - 4.25    97.9%   96.4%   


► https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor

THE SAME!!!


DO YOU NOT SEE that this can be construed as your reply and not you providing a referenced reply?

It's not that complicated for someone who is supposed to be educated.

@Hueristic  - So, only in 'Wall Observer BTC/USD' is this message in a Quote Box with a link underneath it  necessary - but it's not necessary in 'Buy the DIP, and HODL!' with both threads in 'Speculation'!!! I find that more than strange!  

You really do want to get yourself banned don't you?

Is it because then you can tell yourself that that place is full of assholes instead of admitting to yourself that your just a Dickhead?

Geniality on full display...  

Maybe check you short term memory?

I am the only one that stood up for you when you were losing your mind and getting dogpiled.

I recommend taking a good long look in the mirror.

[IceLincoln]

@Hueristic  - So, only in 'Wall Observer BTC/USD' is this message in a Quote Box with a link underneath it  necessary - but it's not necessary in 'Buy the DIP, and HODL!' with both threads in 'Speculation'!!! I find that more than strange!   

This guy is always acting like he knows too much or is better than everyone else, first you came in and started making bold your whole comments not even talking about bitcoin or good update. If you’re an old investor of bitcoin  but you’re new to forum and don’t fully understand how things work, you should stay calm and learn but you’re feeling too arrogant most times.
You don’t even know what the Wall observer thread is for, just go back to beginners and help thread and stay there till you know more. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=39.0