at JJG still seems a lot like sideways to me.
106k in dec 2024
115k in sept 2025
Are folks ready 10 more months of sideways?
....
I am going to proclaim that you are biased in your wannabe assertion, and failing/refusing to sufficiently zoom out to recognize and appreciate that grinding up still has an appearance of flat even though it is grinding up (until it isn't).
My view is that IF the stock market was to have a correction of 30%, at least initially btc/crypto in such a panic would go down 70%.
This is my view that if 70% of the economy is consumer spending...in a recession everyone suddenly gets their finances in a row..like the cc is maxed out..or
Bitcoin is not correlated to the stock market, so it may or may not end up going down equal to or more than the stock market, and it is possible that it does not go down as much and/or that it still goes up... depending on the situation.
It is problematic to presume bitcoin is either correlated or a mature asset class.
the house has equity maxed out..or you are rich and should not have gotten that 2nd lake cabin....indeed...everyone is suddenly cash poor at the same time
Well we know that various fiat systems are in a bad place, but that does not automatically mean that bitcoin performs badly in a variety of melt-down scenarios, even if there could well be situations in which bitcoin seems like it is experiencing greater volatility in the short-term.
takes a couple years for folks to get their ducks in a row corporate or otherwise....
thus btc/crypto will be the first to be spent in a panic 24/7 access...your edward jones type traditional consultants...it takes a few days to talk to them on what to do
You are correct that in a short term liquidity situation, like we experiences on and around March 12, bitcoin corrected more at various points in time since bitcoin was one of the ONLY places that liquidity could be drawn quickly and without any questions, yet at the same time, bitcoin recovered way greater than those other assets, so each of us might ONLY look at the short-term negativity, but those who sold their bitcoin and stayed out of their bitcoin during those times (mindrust et al) got really fucked, especially several years down the road when bitcoin largely 30x-ed from it's $3,800 bottom, and how have other assets (including the stock market or commodities, etc?) done?
Don't get distracted by short-term nonsense. Bitcoin is a BIGGER play, and I recall your various negatively in prior years, yet at least the advantage is that you have not acted upon such negativity and you largely have hung onto your coins through the years.
btc 3 min panic sell to pay cc bill on job layoff...as cc is maxed out have to eat
so at least initially it will be a blood bath though i think btc/crypto would bounce back more than stock market or at least equiv and better then bonds along the way
Who cares about crypto or shitcoins? The one that matters is bitcoin... and yeah, bitcoin will likely bounce back quicker and more, and if we zoom out, we will likely figure out that we need not get overly distracted by short-term liquidity events that might contribute to short-term stupidity. We are best in a position to be able to buy bitcoin during those kinds of times, if they end up happening.
but hey, house is borrowed against, cc is maxed out...most people work more then one job in a 2 job family...can't put the kids to work (except AK)....so
that kinda sorta point of layoffs and $50k of btc/crypto that dropped 70% on a panic that you can cash out in 3 min is very tempting
Bitcoin is not crashing to $50k. Maybe you might get $80k if such a crash were to occur in the next 3-12 months, but later down the road the crash might not go any lower than $100k.. The crashing down point depends on the starting point, so if we are at $333k, then a 70% crash is merely going to bring us to $99k.
also even if you have $$$ ie a CEO you are over extended.....everyone 'says' they want to buy gold/stocks/btc and crypto when a recession hits...but few
have the liquidity to do so...me? I sure can't sell btc/crypto at the high and buy at the low..I have NO talent for that
such is recessions....especially if your biz or job has cutbacks in revenue....
Sure each person is going to deal with these matters differently in terms of how much cash any of us might keep on-hand for those kinds of events, if they were to happen.
this is my view on btc price...i tell people now (newbs) who want to buy btc 'do you really think it won't long term do better then bonds at what 4%?....and to just
get btc dust on paypal or coinbase as you can and don't sell till 2035 when 99% of all btc has been mined as a lofty goal
Nothing wrong with that, yet people are still going to have differing timelines, and yeah, having 10 years or more in mind seems reasonable for young people to invest into bitcoin.
so no clue on price and always get blindsided on the above mentioned....my 4th recession...so IMHO..if above happens HODL and buy
but price no clue....blindsided by btc dumps and recessions...always...almost a universal law in my life
None of us really know when craziness will come, and surely we already likely recognize and appreciate that we are already living in craziness.. .which is part of the justification for continuing to hold bitcoin and for others (who don't have bitcoin) to get into bitcoin.
The cryptocurrency market saw roughly $1.7 billion in total liquidations in the past 24 hours, according to public data aggregated on Coinglass.
Coinglass data showed that of the $1.7 billion in liquidations, about $1.62 billion came from long positions. Within the past four hours alone, roughly $1.09 billion was liquidated, including about $1.06 billion in longs.
In the past 24 hours, over 404,000 traders were liquidated, with the total liquidations reaching $1.7 billion. The largest single liquidation order was a $12.74 million BTC-USDT swap on OKX, according to the data.
Liquidations occur when a trader’s positions in a particular market are forcibly closed due to significant losses or insufficient margin to meet the maintenance requirements. The liquidation figures are typically based on publicly available data, which may significantly understate the true extent of market liquidations. In many cases, API limits and incomplete reporting practices result in only a fraction of actual liquidation activity being captured by data aggregators. This incomplete data can lead to an underestimation of market risk and volatility, ultimately distorting the overall picture.
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https://www.theblock.co/post/371560/crypto-liquidations-surpass-1-billionWhat is crypto?
These dips are starting to get a little painful… Who could have seen this coming?!?
More seriously though, there are rumors going around that tomorrow will bring a surprise announcement to pump Bitcoin. Bitcoin finally being added to 401K plans (laws passed but not implemented yet) and a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement seem to be the popular whispers.
Yeah, I'm starting to get concerned. Bitcoin is incredibly weak this year, not what I expected at all. Many of us are lucky we got in early and have managed to retire, make a great life via Bitcoin.
The current performance is doing nothing to attract newbies to the space though. Stocks and Gold making all time highs every second or third day. You can even get dividends with stocks. Bitcoin pretty much flat all year, floating around sideways/downwards.
September is the worst month for Bitcoin historically and Q4 in a bull run year (are we even in one) is supposed to be where the real gains come. Let’s hope Q4 treats us well, let’s just survive September and see where the last months of the year take us. I am not impressed though to be honest.
You are depressing me with that post..
not based on my perceptions of the truth of your assertions though.
#justsayingBuy and HODL till 99% of all BTC has been mined in 2035 is my advice....as far as regular day to day $$$ traditional finance it is gonna get ugly again IMHO
You are talking about bitcoin as a trade rather than an investment, and bitcoin is better as an investment.
Yet, sure in 10 years any of us could reevaluate - and hopefully if we are new to bitcoin now, then by 2035 we might have had learned a bit about bitcoin to help us to realize that bitcoin is an investment, not a trade.
These dips are starting to get a little painful… Who could have seen this coming?!?
More seriously though, there are rumors going around that tomorrow will bring a surprise announcement to pump Bitcoin. Bitcoin finally being added to 401K plans (laws passed but not implemented yet) and a strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement seem to be the popular whispers.
The 'Joy' of Bitcoin (Bitcoin: You Merciless Bitch!) Is no one (especially) sees it coming...if I feel the 'urge' to sell..even if I don't it usually
means times are getting 'tight' money wise.....I may move with the herd...but HODL and don't jump off the cliff and sell..though when
people dump even I feel the urge to follow and then blow $$$ recklessly. However, I am old enough to know I'm boring with cash and/or
without cash. However, I am 'damn' interesting with a BTC Hoard since 2013. (Ego: if only in my own puny/disturbed mind)
You can shave off coins whenever you like whether the price is up or down, and you have enough coins, but yeah problems might exist if you locked them up too much, causing yourself to no longer have control over the coins, while you are still living.
What would it look like if there WERE paper bitcoin at this point...
Anyone up to date with what Caitlyn whasserface is saying?
this could be another possibility: "They" managed to destroy the big bull markets in BTC and now can manipulate the price as they do with gold and other commodities...
In that case we go up when "they" want us to go up. And that probably means we all get a visit from Mr. Max Payne ...
"They" frequently try to control the price and try to act like they are in control of the price, yet I doubt that bitcoin is as easy to manipulate as "they" would like us to believe that it is, and if "they" get caught on the wrong side of certain trades, "they" are still going to suffer greatly for such (even though surely BIGGER) players are going to be hedged to win no matter what, but they still have abilities to fuck up from time to time.
****I feel a bit like a wakko in my above response.
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