Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

Even if cycles look different, they still are likely to exist, even if they are harder to identify and don't lock into exact time frames (until we look back historically, we are likely going to continue to see cycles for a while - which surely the schedule for the issuance of the new supply of bitcoin likely continues to be a factor, even if coins likely are moving around from other places (an perhaps some paper bitcoin  are trying to fill in with some possible danger in regards to playing with fire.. and sure some secret bailouts could be promised if the manipulation does not end up working out... perhaps?

In any event, every time is a bit different until we can look back at it and see that it was not as different as we had hypothesized it to be while we were in the midst of it.

Yes. It only takes a quick glance at the zoomed-out 200-WMA chart, to see that 4-year cycles exist and they are not going anywhere any time soon. Halvings are far too big of a step change in Bitcoin supply to not induce an observable effect in spot and average price variation.

[cygan]

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[psycodad]

..that i miss the sound of 56k modems..

Hah, 56k, the sound of the future at lightspeed.
I miss my 300 baud acoustic coupler, strapping the the telephone handset in time for a successful connection to your coupler was a true challenge (manually dialing the long oversea number while using your corn-flakes whistle was too -  2600 anybody, SS9 maybe? *lol*).
I still have that thing and I very well remember the only point in time when I was faster than the transmission line with typing 

[OutOfMemory]

Nice!  A little hopium to go with my morning coffee routine.  Something to energize my spirit... my body needs a second cup though.

No need for hopium when you trust in Bitcoin.
I see that many are put off of the "endless sideways" of BTC, but if you zoom out, it's sideways in steps.
The next step is imminent, and cycles are changing, in an absolute and relative manner.
Everybody whose mindset is like "i will sell the top and buy the bottom, like every cycle" should be careful. Of course, it will likely work this way again, but it gravitates towards less efficiently each cycle. I recently read an opinion here which went like "i set this exact day to sell" (EDIT: Which would most likely be a horrible decision, when you are looking at what is going to happen, imo), but if one looks closely, repetitive analysis based on past cycles don't work as they used to. It's a slow change, but over time, the differences in time, price and deltas become bigger.
If there are absolute truths, then "this time it's different" is one of them, but only when used in the right context. As one can spot those differences only in retrospect, it should better be "last time it was different" (which is kind of the same, but still different).
Am i probably repeating myself?
But y'all get the point, somehow, right?

You are confusing, even though you make sense at the same time.          

Even if cycles look different, they still are likely to exist, even if they are harder to identify and don't lock into exact time frames (until we look back historically, we are likely going to continue to see cycles for a while - which surely the schedule for the issuance of the new supply of bitcoin likely continues to be a factor, even if coins likely are moving around from other places (an perhaps some paper bitcoin  are trying to fill in with some possible danger in regards to playing with fire.. and sure some secret bailouts could be promised if the manipulation does not end up working out... perhaps?

In any event, every time is a bit different until we can look back at it and see that it was not as different as we had hypothesized it to be while we were in the midst of it.

Man, i actually am confused. I was suffering from vertigo half of the day, now it's a bit better.
Seems like i am on the way to burn out again. I already stopped working compulsively against the clock two weeks ago, but stepped in for a co-worker (and friend) who dropped out because he has to support his (very old and beloved) mother.

No problem.

No problem?

No, problem!

His current customer is pretty stupid when it comes to planning project timelines, and i currently have two or three emergencies every day, when i have to drive an hour long to the manufacturing facility, to solve things in a hurry, drive back an hour long - and so on. The rooms/halls are lit so bright, i feel the urge to put on dark sunglasses, but then i'm working on tiny, tiny parts - and sunglasses don't help with that. I have earplugs (with voices coming through ok-ish, the rest ist filtered out), but they don't seem to help in the noisy environment, when nearby people are chatting in one of four different foreign languages and my brain constantly tries to translate.

So, tomorrow i'll hit the brakes, take Friday off and decide over the weekend how and if i will continue.
My friends mother may pass soon, and then it will be 1 month of absence, i guess, so my boss (and friend) has to look for a skilled contract worker. Not that there are too many, but that's not my problem anymore.

Sorry for the OT, by the way.
I'll try to shed a little more detail on my cycles-opinion, soon.

..that i miss the sound of 56k modems..

Hah, 56k, the sound of the future at lightspeed.
I miss my 300 baud acoustic coupler, strapping the the telephone handset in time for a successful connection to your coupler was a true challenge (manually dialing the long oversea number while using your corn-flakes whistle was too -  2600 anybody, SS9 maybe? *lol*).
I still have that thing and I very well remember the only point in time when I was faster than the transmission line with typing 

At that time i was too young.
Did you also "knock" phone numbers in public phone booths for free national calls?
Reminds me a little bit of Morsing.
Actually my first "hack" when i was schoolboy below teen age.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

I'd be interested in researching this a bit more as we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market.  If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.

Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside?  

I would think so.  If a company holding a lot of coins on behalf of users turned out not to have them, it would set off an investigation as well as bankruptcy.  Assets that were being held by the company would be frozen and users would have themselves trapped in a long legal battle in hopes to recover anything.  The market would see this as a breakdown and a lot of people speculating on the price of Bitcoin would view this as a sign to exit the market.  It's best if everything is functioning as advertised.

again, IMHO if you have a recession companies who have gotten coins on the cheap will sell downward to keep their stock up imho...and lock in profits and of course their jobs

on those who play with stocks and btc/crypto for the company. Anything above 5% in a tanking start of a recession is golden. Great the Corporations are getting into

btc/crypto...but remember what goes into a corporation eventually gets sold to save the almighty stock ..as that is what determines right or wrong for direction today

perception is everything. So pretty sure with 24/7 selling ...btc will be the canary in the gold mine and get flushed first. Blackrock having a 'notion' about 1/2 a decade...now

HODL'ing is a fantasy indeed. Now btc/crypto WILL do much better then bonds in such a recession view..along with land and gold....but like land and btc/crypto it will

likely do much better then 4-5% bonds in the USA....and come back. But the 24/7 panic selling on above with 'Corp Think' will bite the price in the ass at any downturn.

Remember, I know squat and and am typing here on bitcointalk...but how it seems to me. Also a 'recession' is coming, I've seen the signs and gone thru 4 or more. So

prepare folks.

don't remind me that 3 of 4 years in BTC are mostly pain...

[Franklyn-wood]

Bitcoin has started to raise a leg as we speak.
See you at $117k before I anticipate on another level of dominance.
Let's watch how everything play out !

[d_eddie]

Interesting thoughts, but sometimes your terse and barely hinting style is a bit hard to follow.

Maybe something big is brewing when one of the main casino's spot arb starts to get seriously outta wack like way back?

ELI5: How is the spot arb getting out of whack? Is someone doing something? What are they doing?

Paperization runs the risk of price discovering there are no bailouts: a covering willybot with current market dimensions could produce spectactular results

Could you elaborate on that?

No spreads are outta wack and this is merely a hypothetical scenario regarding paper games. If Mikey, "treasuries", etc exercise claims bigly (and if someone turns out to be playing), the price will go up where pockets of paper live unless they double down to compensate.

You mean "corrective" shorting or similar foul play?

Also consider that if the gubmint/sec/cftc begin gynecologizing US-based exchanges, casino games they've been greenlit to run since and before "regulation through enforcement" would be in jeopardy, which would also have the effect of tamping down any back room naughtiness.

You mean regulation through enforcement could tamp down some of the trickery?

we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market.  If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.

Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside?   

I agree there's a slight chance it could turn out better this time, "cuz dis time it's different mmrghgh". However, as someone (searing for one) pointed out, it's unlikely. If the size of the fuckery is limited and the perpetrators can get out clean by buying some legit btc, things can get a boost. If it's too messed up to recover, or too widespread, we're in for a long lasting climate of mistrust. No Superman Saylor can talk the world out of that.

The best situation IMO would be if some small name, caught with their hands in the cookie jar, ends up beaten bloody by having to repay the damage (or buy back) with their own funds, not yet vanished. That would be a hard lesson for the small fish, but a cheap lesson for the sharks.

I'm assuming I understood what you meant, but as I preventively stated, I'm not quite sure. A little more articulation on your side would make for a more pleasant conversation.

[d_eddie]

Bitcoin has started to raise a leg as we speak.

Let's hope it's not a dog.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[psycodad]

..that i miss the sound of 56k modems..

Hah, 56k, the sound of the future at lightspeed.
I miss my 300 baud acoustic coupler, strapping the the telephone handset in time for a successful connection to your coupler was a true challenge (manually dialing the long oversea number while using your corn-flakes whistle was too -  2600 anybody, SS9 maybe? *lol*).
I still have that thing and I very well remember the only point in time when I was faster than the transmission line with typing  

At that time i was too young.
Did you also "knock" phone numbers in public phone booths for free national calls?
Reminds me a little bit of Morsing.
Actually my first "hack" when i was schoolboy below teen age.

Yeah, I remember that we downloaded some C64 or Amiga program from a US BBS that allowed us to create valid credit card numbers out of thin air and we used that to call random numbers in far away countries from public phone booths with call by call (the lady on the other end would just ask for a credit card number and a number to dial). These times nobody could verify if your credit card is actually existing and can be invoiced, they just used some simple algo to check if the number is *looking* valid.
Oh, well - the eighties, great peaceful times   (You read that third millenium? Right, you sucked from day one TBH!)

[OutOfMemory]

Bitcoin has started to raise a leg as we speak.
See you at $117k before I anticipate on another level of dominance.
Let's watch how everything play out !

Closing CME gap on friday, profit taking over the weekend, green candles next week.
Do i repeat myself? 

[Franklyn-wood]

Bitcoin has started to raise a leg as we speak.
See you at $117k before I anticipate on another level of dominance.
Let's watch how everything play out !

Closing CME gap on friday, profit taking over the weekend, green candles next week.
Do i repeat myself? 

This is brilliant and a wonderful summary on how the market could play out.
Let's play the bull candles movement together...the bull is getting activated 💪

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Me realising Q4 begins next week.

🚀

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[champions]

This was the first ever Bitcoin tweet, posted on January 10th, 2009 ✨
Now, the world is running bitcoin.


source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1970914428192424276?t=19

This tweet reminded me of the early history of Bitcoin, after creating Bitcoin in 2009, the experimental project is now popular all over the world, it has become a very valuable time for ordinary people and small and big businessmen. January 10th, 2009, Bitcoin was just a code and a coin made by some people for fun, they never imagined where Bitcoin is today. I hope that Bitcoin will create a new history in the future world, which we cannot imagine.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Franklyn-wood]

This was the first ever Bitcoin tweet, posted on January 10th, 2009 ✨
Now, the world is running bitcoin.


source: https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1970914428192424276?t=19

This tweet reminded me of the early history of Bitcoin, after creating Bitcoin in 2009, the experimental project is now popular all over the world, it has become a very valuable time for ordinary people and small and big businessmen. January 10th, 2009, Bitcoin was just a code and a coin made by some people for fun, they never imagined where Bitcoin is today. I hope that Bitcoin will create a new history in the future world, which we cannot imagine.

Did I just see something like Bitcoin was made for fun? Haba! Don't put it in this way because it sounds like Bitcoin is like those shit coins in the market with no really value. Only pump and dump value.
I have so far changed my perception about Bitcoin as the best of the best and I don't like it when you use words that do not fit in to name or use along with Bitcoin. Maybe I am overreacting but I will try as much as possible to reduce my temperament and see it like it's a mistake.

Smiling with a cold beer

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com