Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

I would really love to see some cascading, blood-red waterfalls right now.

It's probably my strongest personal indicator that it is not going to happen.

[JorgeStolfi]

FWIW, there is a note on OKCoin's site, posted May/12 17:12 local time, that reports some bug that hit their site on May/11.  I understood (perhaps) that it was related to leveraged trading, and led them to stop leveraged trading. 

https://www.okcoin.com/t-1008713.html

【紧急通知】OKCoin平台防诈骗指南 1#发表于:2014-05-12 17:12:16  - IP:114.249.*.*
 关于OKCoin 5.11融资融币高利率事件及后续经过处理方案
事件经过：根据平台自律声明，OKCoin在5月10日已暂停融资融币。
OKCoin在关闭融资融币时，对未产生借贷关系的用户隐藏了“融资融币”的入口链接，而借款未到期用户，系统会在到期时自动续借来归还上一笔借款，由于没有新的放款来补充放款深度，导致放款利率不断升高，最终有部分用户由于借款逾期未还，系统以高利率自动续借。
我们的错误：[ ... ]

OKCoin emergency notification platform Fraud Guide # 1 Posted :2014-05-12 17:12:16 - IP:. 114.249 * *.
 About OKCoin 5.11 financing currency financial events and subsequent high interest rates after treatment options

Incident: Depending on the platform self- declaration , OKCoin on May 10 has been suspended finance financial currency.

OKCoin melt when you close the financing currency , lending relationship is not generated for the user to hide the " finance financial money" entry link , and the borrower unexpired user, the system will automatically renew to return on a loan when due , as no new loans to supplement lending depth, resulting in lending rates continue to rise, eventually some users because the borrower overdue , the system automatically renew at high interest rates .

Our mistakes : [... ]

[TERA]

One of the market's biggest traits is changing one you've learned its behavior.

[xalex]

I can't be the only one who had this idea  

http://btc.pizzacat.net/threerabbitswithhatssittingonsantaslapdancingrockettothemoon/threadVSstamp.png

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

It's Thursday, is this just the Bitcoin Investment Trust on its weekly shopping spree?

Yeah, this time they bought ~341 BTC.

Actually, I am not sure if it is bullish - they keep buying but the price stays the same. Think what would happen if they would stop buying - or start selling.

I wouldn't think too much about it... hehehe.

Why? They sort of have a "ticking bomb" design - you are only allowed to sell after holding for 6 months. So they may have many investor who bought high and want out, but they have to wait some time, until this 6 months will pass.

You have been reading too many of Jorge's posts.       

What I mean is that the potential negative scenario that you are describing is NOT as highly likely as you are making it out to be.   

In this regard, if an investment fund is attempting to appeal to institutional investors or larger investors with a longer time horizon, the larger investors know the drill and they understand the terms of the agreement in that the investment is longer term (and NOT trading), and the investor understands the need to stick with the minimum time-period whether good or bad, and hopefully institutional investors and investment funds are sufficiently diversified in order to have varying performance of different assets that are contained within their portfolio.

I am of the belief that there are trade offs, and different kinds of investments appeal to different kinds of investors.  Even though  some kinds of investments may NOT be suitable for a day trader, institutional investors are usually long term... or at least longer term in their choices, and 6 months is NOT a burdensome commitment for an institutional investor.

I agree that institutional investors act very differently than most individual investors or people around here. But Second Market is not for institutional investors, it is for individual folks, just a bit more wealthy than average. The "first 6 month selling ban" is not a guideline, it is simply prohibited. Meaning that Second Market believed their investor would be prone to panic selling, just as the regular folks. So far, their have pretty bad record of buying high, that is why I believe they would be also prone to selling low. Not Barry fault at all, he has on influence on these decision other than this 6 months selling ban.

Btw, you sound a bit if you believe I am trying to sell some agenda. I am just expressing my views, like anybody else on this forum. I am neither long or short in bit coin, and actually decided not to buy it, so I would not gain whatever happens with the price.

[Chalkbot]

I can't be the only one who had this idea 

Nice!

edit: I bet forum activity and price volatility will have high correlation.

[adamstgBit]

we had some good news past few days, the consumer infrastructure is really building, adding usefulness to an already useful thing. wonderfull!

This weekend make sure to tell all your friends how you're going to be rich because you're HODLING a bag of digital virtual magic money for the future.  

[PoolMinor]

I can't be the only one who had this idea  

The idea has been presented before, you are not the only one.

I swear I just saw ChartBuddy post two times in a row.

This thread is slower than the choo choo you guys speak of lol.

Lets pick it up guys, I'm bored.

Sometime I think I will chart thread activity vs Bitcoin price or maybe volume. See which leads which.

[adamstgBit]

I can't be the only one who had this idea  

Nice!

 

[edwardspitz]

I can't be the only one who had this idea  

Nice!

+1   Yes I remember it has been discussed before (maybe several times - I joined some time in March), but up until now no one has done anything about it.

[keewee]

I can't be the only one who had this idea  

Original thread on this topic: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155012.0

[PoolMinor]

Here you go! Now you can make your own chart/graph. Edited code for this thread. (topic=178336) You may have to add/change years.

[snip]


R code:

Code:

require(RCurl)

last.page<-15640
num<-"00"
allposts=NULL
while(as.numeric(num)<=last.page){
  
  forum<-getURL(
    paste("https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.",num, sep=""),
    ssl.verifypeer = FALSE, useragent = "R"
  )
  
  
  forum<-readLines(tc <- textConnection(forum)); close(tc)
  dates1<-grep('<div class="smalltext">',forum)
  dates2<-dates1[seq(2,length(dates1),by=2)]
  forum2<-forum[dates2]
  if(length(grep("edit",forum2))>0){
    forum3<-forum2[-grep("edit",forum2)]
  }else{
    forum3<-forum2
  }
  
  dates=NULL
  for(i in 1:length(forum3)){
    temp<-unlist(strsplit(forum3[i],">"))
    date<-strsplit(temp[2],"</")[[1]][1]
    
    dates<-rbind(dates,date)
  }
  
  allposts<-rbind(allposts,dates)
  
  num<-20 + as.numeric(num)
  print(num)
}

rownames(allposts)<-1:length(allposts)

allposts<-allposts[-which(allposts=="<b")]

alldates=NULL
for(i in 1:length(allposts)){
  temp<-unlist(
    strsplit(
      unlist(strsplit(allposts[i],", ")),
      " "
    )
  )
  
  temp2<-cbind(temp[1],temp[2],temp[3])
  
  alldates<-rbind(alldates,temp2)
}
alldates<-as.data.frame(alldates)
alldates[,1]<-as.character(alldates[,1])
alldates[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,2]))
alldates[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,3]))



mnth<-month.name[1]
yr<-2012
counts=NULL

for(yr in c(2012,2013)){
  for(m in 1:length(month.name)){
    mnth<-month.name[m]
    temp<-alldates[which(alldates[,1]==mnth & alldates[,3]==yr),]
    if(nrow(temp)>0){
      
      
      for(i in 1:max(temp[,2])){
        cnt<-length(which(temp[,2]==i))
        
        counts.temp<-cbind(unique(temp[,1]),i,unique(temp[,3]),cnt)
        counts<-rbind(counts,counts.temp)
      }
      
    }
    
  }
  
}

counts<-as.data.frame(counts)
counts[,1]<-as.character(counts[,1])
counts[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,2]))
counts[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,3]))
counts[,4]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,4]))



x.vals<-round(seq(1,nrow(counts), length=10),0)
x.labs<-paste(counts[x.vals,1],counts[x.vals,2], counts[x.vals,3])

plot(counts[,4], type="l", lwd=2, col="Red",
     ylab="Number of Posts",xaxt="n", xlab="",
     main="Posts per Day in Wall Observer Thread"
)
axis(side=1, at=x.vals, labels=x.labs)

[y3804]

Why the dump on Huobi? Can't find anything about it. Help me

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Why the dump on Huobi? Can't find anything about it. Help me

Why not? I mean, nobody is asking "why the pump?", why do we need a special reason for the dump? Just basic laws of demand and supply - apparently not enough buyers atm at Huobi to support the current price. Knowing Huobi, 15 mins from now it can change dramatically again 

[KFR]

Here you go! Now you can make your own chart/graph. Edited code for this thread. (topic=178336) You may have to add/change years.

[snip]


R code:

Code:

require(RCurl)

last.page<-15640
num<-"00"
allposts=NULL
while(as.numeric(num)<=last.page){
  
  forum<-getURL(
    paste("https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.",num, sep=""),
    ssl.verifypeer = FALSE, useragent = "R"
  )
  
  
  forum<-readLines(tc <- textConnection(forum)); close(tc)
  dates1<-grep('<div class="smalltext">',forum)
  dates2<-dates1[seq(2,length(dates1),by=2)]
  forum2<-forum[dates2]
  if(length(grep("edit",forum2))>0){
    forum3<-forum2[-grep("edit",forum2)]
  }else{
    forum3<-forum2
  }
  
  dates=NULL
  for(i in 1:length(forum3)){
    temp<-unlist(strsplit(forum3[i],">"))
    date<-strsplit(temp[2],"</")[[1]][1]
    
    dates<-rbind(dates,date)
  }
  
  allposts<-rbind(allposts,dates)
  
  num<-20 + as.numeric(num)
  print(num)
}

rownames(allposts)<-1:length(allposts)

allposts<-allposts[-which(allposts=="<b")]

alldates=NULL
for(i in 1:length(allposts)){
  temp<-unlist(
    strsplit(
      unlist(strsplit(allposts[i],", ")),
      " "
    )
  )
  
  temp2<-cbind(temp[1],temp[2],temp[3])
  
  alldates<-rbind(alldates,temp2)
}
alldates<-as.data.frame(alldates)
alldates[,1]<-as.character(alldates[,1])
alldates[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,2]))
alldates[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,3]))



mnth<-month.name[1]
yr<-2012
counts=NULL

for(yr in c(2012,2013)){
  for(m in 1:length(month.name)){
    mnth<-month.name[m]
    temp<-alldates[which(alldates[,1]==mnth & alldates[,3]==yr),]
    if(nrow(temp)>0){
      
      
      for(i in 1:max(temp[,2])){
        cnt<-length(which(temp[,2]==i))
        
        counts.temp<-cbind(unique(temp[,1]),i,unique(temp[,3]),cnt)
        counts<-rbind(counts,counts.temp)
      }
      
    }
    
  }
  
}

counts<-as.data.frame(counts)
counts[,1]<-as.character(counts[,1])
counts[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,2]))
counts[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,3]))
counts[,4]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,4]))



x.vals<-round(seq(1,nrow(counts), length=10),0)
x.labs<-paste(counts[x.vals,1],counts[x.vals,2], counts[x.vals,3])

plot(counts[,4], type="l", lwd=2, col="Red",
     ylab="Number of Posts",xaxt="n", xlab="",
     main="Posts per Day in Wall Observer Thread"
)
axis(side=1, at=x.vals, labels=x.labs)

Thanks for this.

[y3804]

Why the dump on Huobi? Can't find anything about it. Help me

Why not? I mean, nobody is asking "why the pump?", why do we need a special reason for the dump? Just basic laws of demand and supply - apparently not enough buyers atm at Huobi to support the current price. Knowing Huobi, 15 mins from now it can change dramatically again  

Maybe, but looking at the charts it was a significant dump. It's not common whale behavior and definitely not a smart move. Why would he exit with a market sell? There are some rumors about bad news in the upcoming weekend, but I honestly can't find anything else. Until I find more information I'll assume that he dumped... because he wanted to dump, right

[KFR]

Chinese miners still gotta sell.

[shmadz]

Chinese miners still gotta sell.

asicminer is in china, right?

I don't hear much about them anymore...

anyways, I gotta get some sleep, so at the risk of being spammy I'll drop this link one more time.

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h14m39s

good night now!

[adamstgBit]

Chinese miners still gotta sell.

asicminer is in china, right?

I don't hear much about them anymore...

anyways, I gotta get some sleep, so at the risk of being spammy I'll drop this link one more time.

http://youtu.be/XcGh1Dex4Yo?t=1h14m39s

good night now!

the price of bitcoin is highly correlated to the number of post in this thread, spam away