Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Dubai could have 400 fully operational Bitcoin ATMs in the next two weeks --> http://bitcoinexaminer.org/dubai-400-fully-operational-bitcoin-atm-two-weeks/?utm_source=twitter

SELL!! SELL!! Bitcoin is over!! We are going to $100!! Poor bears

In the past 5-6 months, I have found this news to be considerably amazing - like how could one city need or use so many bitcoin machines? 

If bitcoin were to become a central aspect of the Dubai economy, then 400 ATMs would make sense....

It just remains interesting to me about 400 ATMs going into place in one city when about 99% of the world's population likely does NOT even know what bitcoin is, or at least NOT even invested 1 satoshi into bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

I would NOT call any body stupid or their actions stupid b/c of religion

Joining cults isn't an issue of intelligence. It's more a reflection of emotional health vs injury.

Studies say otherwise. There has been a negative correlation between religion and IQ for the majority of test subjects.

Do I really have to bring up the distinction between correlation and causation?

You just did.   

[Arghhh]

Mini-rally because this:
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/477931080889012224

"1/Announcement: @BitcoinTrust and SecondMarket's bitcoin trading desk will be forming a syndicate to bid in US Marshals bitcoin auction..."

Reddit discussion:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/285qzk/bitcointrust_and_secondmarkets_bitcoin_trading/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Miz4r]

Mini-rally because this:
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/477931080889012224

"1/Announcement: @BitcoinTrust and SecondMarket's bitcoin trading desk will be forming a syndicate to bid in US Marshals bitcoin auction..."

Reddit discussion:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/285qzk/bitcointrust_and_secondmarkets_bitcoin_trading/

This is going to cause more than a mini-rally... I don't think many people have seen this yet.

[JorgeStolfi]

Does someone know why the Chinese exchanges are constantly higher than any others?

The USD equivalent displayed on some charts (eg bitcoinwisdom) is computed from the CNY price by some CNY:USD exchange rate, presumably the official one, not necessarily up to date.  I have noticed that arbitragers apparently use a different exchange rate; say when the official one was 6.22, the Bitstamp/Huobi ratio, at "quiescent" times seemed to be consistently closer to 6.10 -- that kind of difference.  This "arbitrager's ratio" was itself fairly consistent, for days or weeks on end.  I will try to post a graph later.

Moreover, the Bitstamp/Huobi ratio was often well off the usual value whenever the price was changing very fast -- presumably because the arbitragers were unable to keep up.

Also, at Huobi the arbitragers apparently went to bed at night, like other clients.  Usually that did not matter because Bitstamp would be rather quiet at those times too. But if there happened to be independent activity at Bitstamp during the night (like there was a hour ago), Huobi would not pick up the change until waking up.

EDIT: clarifications

[zimmah]

The more interesting thing is that is just became widely known just how little it costs it for a malicious miner to sabotage a mining pool via block withholding.

Is that like a worker at a diamond mine stealing a diamond that he dug out?

More like a worker at a diamond vapourizing the diamond instead of digging it out of the ground.

He still gets paid his wage (which is slightly diminished because the mine earned less) but the total harm caused to the mine is larger than the amount he gives up in income.

Why would anyone want to do that?

I mean, you don't really gain anything from it. And competing pools are actually a good thing, because the more pools there are the more secure the network is.

[p0peji]

Mini-rally because this:
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/477931080889012224

"1/Announcement: @BitcoinTrust and SecondMarket's bitcoin trading desk will be forming a syndicate to bid in US Marshals bitcoin auction..."

Reddit discussion:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/285qzk/bitcointrust_and_secondmarkets_bitcoin_trading/

And they are not going to be the only big parties bidding for the btc. Remember yahoo stating they added btc market info, because clients have shown interest. Go figure what will happen next.

[N12]

Mini-rally because this:
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/477931080889012224

"1/Announcement: @BitcoinTrust and SecondMarket's bitcoin trading desk will be forming a syndicate to bid in US Marshals bitcoin auction..."

Reddit discussion:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/285qzk/bitcointrust_and_secondmarkets_bitcoin_trading/

This is going to cause more than a mini-rally... I don't think many people have seen this yet.

Does this mean that they are acting as a vehicle for other people to bid on the blocks?

I just don't quite understand the sense in that. Perhaps to alleviate the 200k deposit hurdle?

[JorgeStolfi]

The more interesting thing is that is just became widely known just how little it costs it for a malicious miner to sabotage a mining pool via block withholding.

Is that like a worker at a diamond mine stealing a diamond that he dug out?

More like a worker at a diamond vapourizing the diamond instead of digging it out of the ground.

I presume that the destination address in the reward payoff transaction, at the start of the block, is specified by the pool, not chosen by the miner -- correct?

[justusranvier]

I presume that the destination address in the reward payoff transaction, at the start of the block, is specified by the pool, not chosen by the miner -- correct?

Yes, that's what makes pooled mining work at all.

Miners* can't alter the generation transaction and still have their shares accepted.



(*) whether or not it's accurate to call people who operate mining equipment and sell their hashing power to a pool instead of create their own blocks "miners" is a topic for another discussion.

[kryptopojken]

Mini-rally because this:
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/477931080889012224

"1/Announcement: @BitcoinTrust and SecondMarket's bitcoin trading desk will be forming a syndicate to bid in US Marshals bitcoin auction..."

Reddit discussion:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/285qzk/bitcointrust_and_secondmarkets_bitcoin_trading/

This is going to cause more than a mini-rally... I don't think many people have seen this yet.

Does this mean that they are acting as a vehicle for other people to bid on the blocks?

I just don't quite understand the sense in that. Perhaps to alleviate the 200k deposit hurdle?

Less risk of dumping on the exchanges, I guess

[Gianluca95]

Heavy manipulation going on

Manipulation is normal in Bitcoin, but we need to control that.

No, Bitcoin, actually is Manipulation !

A simple investor, which have only 10.000 BTC can manipulate market with a great facility !

A year ago, about 100,000BTCs where needed for such an achievement.
By this time next year, only about 1,000BTCs will also do the same job.
By 2016...

By 2016 there will be many manipulator, because for the law of numbers, there will be suffice only 1 BTC 

many manipulators a manipulator don't make

Yes, you're right but a single manipulator which have many Bitcoin, more of 50.000, can manipulate market without problem.

[tarmi]

Does someone know why the Chinese exchanges are constantly higher than any others?

it is very difficult to deposits cash, so they have to pay the premium price.

get used to it.

[JorgeStolfi]

I presume that the destination address in the reward payoff transaction, at the start of the block, is specified by the pool, not chosen by the miner -- correct?

Yes, that's what makes pooled mining work at all.
Miners* can't alter the generation transaction and still have their shares accepted.

Thanks.  By the way, how does the pool make sure that each member is actually trying out all the nonces that he is supposed to try?  If the pool software runs on the miner's equipment, it could be compromised and lie to the pool, couldn't it?

(*) whether or not it's accurate to call people who operate mining equipment and sell their hashing power to a pool instead of create their own blocks "miners" is a topic for another discussion.

Right. "Mine workers" is not appropriate either because it is not them that do the work, it is their computers.  "Slave owners who rent their slaves to a mine" may be closer. 

It occurred to me that since the computers are now making money themselves, rather than being an instrument for humans to do valuable work, perhaps they should now be given full person status and citizen rights, while their human tenders should be relegated to the status currently enjoyed by pets and horses. 

[Richy_T]

If bitcoin were to become a central aspect of the Dubai economy, then 400 ATMs would make sense....

Somewhere between 40% and 60% of Dubai does not make sense so this would fit right in.

[justusranvier]

By the way, how does the pool make sure that each member is actually trying out all the nonces that he is supposed to try?

The member has to submit each one to the pool in order to get credit for it.

[JorgeStolfi]

By the way, how does the pool make sure that each member is actually trying out all the nonces that he is supposed to try?

The member has to submit each one to the pool in order to get credit for it.

But how can the pool check that the submitted (failed) hash is correct for that nonce, without redoing the work? 

[KFR]

Wrong thread prof.  You remember when I used to bitch at you about researching the Bitcoin technology rather than concentrating exclusively on the market price?

[smiley123]

For anyone that can understand Italian, here is a youtube of a bitcoin hearing by the Italian government.  I think the live part is over, but this just happened today.  If it still says "live" then you will need to rewind and skip the history part to get to the hearing.

Diretta canale satellitare della Camera dei deputati:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5h-KfwC4aI

Can you write a summary for the non italians?

I'll try.  It's like 3 hours long. I missed it live, so I'll report back when I'm done watching it.

It starts out with explaining what bitcoin, the blockchain, mining, wallets, altcoins, open source, supply and demand, decentralized, the usual gold analogy, the usual negatives (silk road, volatility, and such), and etc.

One of the speakers talked a lot about volatility in price, and it sound like he is setting up a website to discuss possible solutions for addressing it.

The next speaker did a pretty good job of comparing the beginnings of the internet to bitcoin.  He discusses email and message passing, along with cryptography and the inability to counterfeit bitcoins.  So, of course, the next speaker talks about mining, mining pools, double spend, and the 51% attack.

One of the speakers urged that in Italy the less they try to regulate the better it will be.  He suggested that there will probably be regulation from other sources like the EU in general, and that Italy should not need to add anything.  To counter this someone that is running an exchange said this is music to his ears, but he still would like some guidance on how to handle KYC/AML in Italy.

It looks like this is "just gathering evidence for consideration of the government concerning future legislation," like JayJuanGee had guessed.  Overall, it sounds very positive to me.  The conversations are more like "bitcoin is comming, lets embrace it and see how the EU in general decides to regulate it."  I have the same warm and fuzzy feeling I had at the end of the senate hearings in 2013.

(It looks like whoever created the stream forgot to stop it, so it's just streaming garbage from the station that it was broadcast from and you can't rewind it.  Hopefully, someone will post a proper edit of it.)


TL;DR: It's basically the same as the senate hearings in 2013, but in Italy.  To be honest, I'm not sure what function the "Camera dei Deputati" plays in the Italian government though.