Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly.

My understanding is that the "bubble" metaphor refers to the price "inflating" by an extraordinary amount, pushed by nothing but air, and then suddenly collapsing.  I've always seen it used (outside the trading community) in pejorative sense, and never noticed any implication about the price after the bubble being higher or lower than before.

[aminorex]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.

We call it a bubble because it lacks bones, internal structure, to support the surface structure (the observed price).  If liquidity disappears when volatility arises, that is incremental evidence of a bubble, "frothiness".  

To some degree the notion of a bubble is inapplicable to pair trades, such as BTCUSD, in contrast to the way that it applies to a yielding security, since there is no question of future income streams being generated, or of the value mechanism  lacking the internal structure to generate an income stream implied by market valuation.  But it is fair to also characterize a bubble extensionally, as being demonstrated in historical retrospect by a trading price series having certain well-known characteristics.  The characteristics of a bubble or mania in equities or fixed-income products may be taken as paradigmatic of a larger bubble phenomenon, which is identified by pattern matching a time-series.  In the case of economic fundamentals, we can describe historical misallocations as bubbles similarly.

In my view, the exponential baseline of BTCUSD is a fundamentally derived signal, while the intermittent spikes and crashes are a superimposed sequence of manias and depressions.  The latter can be fairly described as bubbles, both because of their pattern, and because the prices represent an excess, a mania, which exceeds the fundamental factors which precipitate it, both to the upside, and to the downside.

[JayJuanGee]

Were balancing around 600 for days now. I feel safe to post this.

Lol excellent. Funny pictures and tongue in cheek TA are the only reasons I come to this thread. I like to see this stuff, the pages and pages of pyramids made by mmitech and jayonejee gets pretty boring

I'll say WTVR, to the extent that there is a ref to me....        

[wachtwoord]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.

I coined "growth spurt" quite a while ago. I appreciate it if people start using that.

[adamstgBit]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.

I coined "growth spurt" quite a while ago. I appreciate it if people start using that.

Bubble just sounds cooler.

[JayJuanGee]

I feel like Cartman in that episode where he freezes himself in order to not have to wait for a new games console to come out.

Freeze me! And thaw me when we're at 2k+! Watching this farting about at 600 is boooooooring.

I'd rather go back 4-5 years in time...  Although some cryo wouldn't be bad either

Both ideas are MAJOR fantasies.


Let's SNAP OUT OF IT!!!!!!!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wachtwoord]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.

I coined "growth spurt" quite a while ago. I appreciate it if people start using that.

Bubble just sounds cooler.

Bubble sounds like it is a scam. When people that actually like Bitcoin use a term which indicated a ponzi scheme can you blame people for not understanding?

[nrd525]

Got my Coinbase coins.  Arbitraging Bitfinex for $20/BTC worked.  Funny how that BFX premium (over Bitstamp) didn't last long.  It's pretty much at zero now.

[ThomasCrowne]

The SR coins will sell above market causing all sellers to raise there asks.  Prices will climb fast.  Just my theory anyway.

i disagree with this.  i suspect coins will be sold either at or slightly below current market price (whatever that is at the time)

[Nightowlace]

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$





 

Multi Billionaire who's only son died from Silk Road overdose buy all the bitcoins and dumps them all on the exchange in an effort to destroy bitcoin once and for all Bitcoin price is $2.49 and massive suicides take place globally.


PS I'm kidding.

[tarmi]

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$





 

Multi Billionaire who's only son died from Silk Road overdose buy all the bitcoins and dumps them all on the exchange in an effort to destroy bitcoin once and for all Bitcoin price is $2.49 and massive suicides take place globally.


PS I'm kidding.

I would like to watch that in a theater.

"Silk road merchant"

[adamstgBit]

I can smell a bubble from a mile away, its happening.

Yes the indicators of a bubble building are here. The US government auction could even be the trigger.

Can you explain how the auction could be the trigger. I think if it is, it could get media attention and the big company that buys it uses the coins to start an exchange.

is this your thought process or did you have something else in mind?

everyone sold coins or wired money to exchanges expecting the price to drop

price is : 605

we get close to the day of, lots of press, good press! poeple wire more monies...

price is : 705

the coins are sold and surprize surprize the price doesn't drop!

price is : 805

3 days later we are in full on bubble mode and there's 10million on the side lines wondering why theres no cheap coins to be had

price is : 1600

next week, looks like will Argentina will default on their debts!

Paso's flood the BTC market, its unbelievable how many Pesos there are and no one wants them!

price is : 3200

the cheap coins lovers realize what's happening and panic buy.

price is : 5200

Obama says "bitcoin will save business more money and create new jobs"

the WORLD PANIC BUYS ALL THE BITCOINS!!!!!!!!!!!

price is : 52,000$

Millions of people are seriously pissed off at wall street for acting so slowly

the people want there bitcoins! NOW!

wall street acts swiftly to respond to the overwhelming demand

its not enough!
its not enough!
its not enough!

the poeple demand MORE MORE MORE!

Price is now : 520,000$





 

Multi Billionaire who's only son died from Silk Road overdose buy all the bitcoins and dumps them all on the exchange in an effort to destroy bitcoin once and for all Bitcoin price is $2.49 and massive suicides take place globally.


PS I'm kidding.

I would like to watch that in a theater.

the worlds a stage.
you're living it!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[empowering]

How soon until $640 I wonder?  maybe not very long.

[thezerg]

Why is everything called a "bubble"? A bubble by definition is something that is unnatural, unjustified, and rare; not something something that occurs regularly. The only bubble that has ever occured in Bitcoin was when it went to $32 in 2011. The $15-$32 portion of that might be called a bubble, and wasn't seen again for 2 years.

I agree its hard to call something a bubble that settles 5 to 10 times higher than it started making it the years best investment.  So I spent the first year saying "bubble" in quotes or using terms like run-up but now I've just given up.  We are redefining the term bubble I guess.  Its a new phenomenon -- social networks have allows financial communication within large sub-cultures to happen faster then an exponential adoption curve, yielding super-exponential "bubbles" on top of a baseline exponential.  Someday some loser will write a book about it and get the Nobel prize in Economics...before Satoshi  .

[BTCfan1]

How soon until $640 I wonder?  maybe not very long.

I feel like on the weekend there is always a rise in price so hopefully by Sunday

[empowering]

How soon until $640 I wonder?  maybe not very long.

I feel like on the weekend there is always a rise in price so hopefully by Sunday

Maybe... looks to me like it wants to breakout a little.

[wachtwoord]

How soon until $640 I wonder?  maybe not very long.

I feel like on the weekend there is always a rise in price so hopefully by Sunday

I remember when it was the other way around and everyone was waiting for fiat deposits on Monday.

[keewee]

How soon until $640 I wonder?  maybe not very long.

I feel like on the weekend there is always a rise in price so hopefully by Sunday

I remember when it was the other way around and everyone was waiting for fiat deposits on Monday.

+1 The "weekend dip theory" came out of that and it even got its own thread