Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TheOnly1]

so what's the word? price goign up rather than down? -_^

Resistance trendline of symmetrical triangle has almost been hit as shown in this chart.

Been like that for the past 8 hours or so. Still another 2-3 bucks before the trendline is touched or another $5-$10 before the trendline is tested, but it seems that there aren't many takers willing to risk buying the last Bitcoins of the leg 4 triangle upswing. So to answer your question, the price is going down. Back down to $560s, which is where things will get interesting and we will see if we are to break down to new lows or make a break to upside.

My point of view: If price crosses the line, we got a huge problem...
Edit

[nrd525]

Do the winners have to pay?  If the price falls more than $67/BTC then forfeiting the deposit can make sense IF there is no legal obligation to pay.

Nightmare scenario involves winners with low bids triggering a major decline in the price which leads to the winners forfeiting their deposit and a second round of bids or someone getting the coins for very cheap.  Hmm, I guess the second round of bids won't happen unless there aren't enough bidders - so that's unlikely.

[Raystonn]

Timeline:

1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.  This would correspond to a lack of buying, as some here have seen in their analysis for the past few weeks.
4) Someone wins the auction, but most bidders do not get all of their bids filled.  The losers find out some time between end of auction 6/27 6PM EST and 6/30 5PM EST.
5) Losers begin slowly accumulating Bitcoin on exchanges again until reaching their planned level of exposure.

We are between #3 and #4.  The next step will be bullish.

[JimboToronto]

Timeline:

1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.  This would correspond to a lack of buying, as some here have seen in their analysis for the past few weeks.
4) Someone wins the auction, but most bidders do not get all of their bids filled.  The losers find out some time between end of auction 6/27 6PM EST and 6/30 5PM EST.
5) Losers begin slowly accumulating Bitcoin on exchanges again until reaching their planned level of exposure.

We are between #3 and #4.  The next step will be bullish.

There might be a step #4.5 - winners market buy a few thousand coins to trigger panic buying/rally and drive up the value of the coins they bought at auction.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

My point of view: If price crosses the line, we got a huge problem...

For some value of huge.  I mean, price may drop a bit lower for a little while, if that happens.  I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
 

[indiemax]

Timeline:

1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.  This would correspond to a lack of buying, as some here have seen in their analysis for the past few weeks.
4) Someone wins the auction, but most bidders do not get all of their bids filled.  The losers find out some time between end of auction 6/27 6PM EST and 6/30 5PM EST.
5) Losers begin slowly accumulating Bitcoin on exchanges again until reaching their planned level of exposure.

We are between #3 and #4.  The next step will be bullish.

sounds about right

[Timmmaahh]

any news about the auction?

[Globb0]

to the auctioneers mate dave

[CoinHamster]

My point of view: If price crosses the line, we got a huge problem...

+1
...and watching MCAD it's most likely.
in my opinion the 3d MCAD is leading with his downtrend.
...but there are still some hours to go, so you can secure in fiat  

sorry for beeing bearish at this point <- low volume!
 => buy, buy, buy!!!  
 

[windjc]

Its happening:

[JorgeStolfi]

Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]

No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one  where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid.  The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small.

From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time.

[elebit]

Its happening:

But ... I don't want to panic buy !! 

[CEG5952]

Not sure I'm convinced of this rally. Feels like a relief rally. Hidden bearish divergences continue. I could see this going sideways a while, then failing. I think it might be a boring weekend.

[Raystonn]

Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]

No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one  where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid.  The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small.

From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time.

Irrelevant.  Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins.  Many have funds for more, and some for all lots.  Many losing bidders will be left without coins.  At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin.  This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction.  So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely.  This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins.

[CEG5952]

Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]

No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one  where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid.  The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small.

From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time.

Irrelevant.  Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins.  Many have funds for more, and some for all lots.  Many losing bidders will be left without coins.  At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin.  This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction.  So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely.  This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins.

However, there will be more coins auctioned by the US government in the future. And there is an OTC market -- only the perma bull case asserts that these buyers need to buy NOW.

[MoreFun]

Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]

No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one  where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid.  The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small.

From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time.

Irrelevant.  Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins.  Many have funds for more, and some for all lots.  Many losing bidders will be left without coins.  At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin.  This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction.  So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely.  This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins.

However, there will be more coins auctioned by the US government in the future. And there is an OTC market -- only the perma bull case asserts that these buyers need to buy NOW.

More coins auctioned? Sure, but at a much higher price

[Raystonn]

Timeline:
1) Large Buyers are slowly accumulating Bitcoin as exchange depth allows, trying not to run the price up on themselves while they try to fill their accounts to their planned levels of exposure.
2) They find out about the SR Seized Coin auction.  Some may have found out before the public announcement.
3) They stop buying on exchanges and save their funds for later bids at the auction.
[ ... ]

No sane manager would change his firm's financial strategy on account of the possibility of winning a closed-bid auction -- especially one  where every moderately rich bitcoin enthusiast in the world can bid.  The chances of winning such an auction with a financially responsible bid price are way too small.

From a business perspective, bidding at such auctions is an opportunistic activity: winning would be great, but one must be prepared to lose many times before scoring a win -- or even to lose every time.

Irrelevant.  Every single bidder that showed up at this auction has funds reserved for a bid of at least 1 lot of 3,000 coins.  Many have funds for more, and some for all lots.  Many losing bidders will be left without coins.  At some point these bidders made the decision to be buyers of Bitcoin.  This decision is unlikely to change as a result of this auction.  So we can expect most of the buyers to move their bids elsewhere rather than remove them entirely.  This is a great deal more purchasing power than is required for the purchase of these <30K coins.

However, there will be more coins auctioned by the US government in the future. And there is an OTC market -- only the perma bull case asserts that these buyers need to buy NOW.

No, the buyers themselves asserted they want to buy now simply by presenting themselves for this auction with a $200,000 deposit.  Future auctions may not even happen.  It will be years before the court case is over and all appeals are done.  By then, even if he loses, there will most likely be an approved Bitcoin exchange with massive liquidity where the coins will be converted to USD and sent to the Treasury rather than having an auction.

[windjc]

Not sure I'm convinced of this rally. Feels like a relief rally. Hidden bearish divergences continue. I could see this going sideways a while, then failing. I think it might be a boring weekend.

Did you see it failing at $420 too? Just curious

[Ivanhoe]

Comment from shroom about sheep panicking in 3.........2..........1............