Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

Alright, the Tim Draper/Vaurum news looks legit enough:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/sns-rt-us-usa-bitcoin-20140701,0,4038036.story


Still, he didn't mention the price, despite informing Reuters that he won the auction.

My conclusion: Either he's trying to build suspense, waiting some more before releasing the price he paid. If no such thing happens, I'll suspect that the price per coin was perhaps somewhat above market that day (~600), but below current market, and he'd rather not disclose the exact number to not cause a crash.

Not necessarily bearish, btw. A ~600 floor would be pretty great long term. OTOH, if it turns out we're ~$50 above auction price right now, we might see a small-ish correction near term.

i don´t really think that more than 40 wealthy entities all just made bids below market price or just slightly above it, letting a 600ish bet win every chunk. for a single bidder to win 'em all, he must have picked a higher price.

if you are right than draper is one hell of a poker player. my guess is way above 700.

You saw my 'EDIT', right? I consider the practical outcome of the auction better than I'd ever hoped for.


That said, I'm simply playing the near term/mid term/long term price prediction game here, so I'll ask: what would you consider the most likely reasons NOT to disclose the price you paid.

(in no particular order, I can come up with)

1- privacy reasons (unlikely, imo. he's an investor.)

2. competitive advantage (possible. doesn't want to give his strategy away in case of future auctions)

3. price was way above market and he doesn't want to look like he overbid (unlikely, it's not like he has shareholders to please on this decision)

4. price was around market on the 27th, which makes it somewhat below market of today. (quite likely, imo)

5. doesn't want to drive price up by announcing his above market buy price, because he's still accumulating. (also possible)

I personally consider 4. and 5. to be the most likely reasons. Comments?

sry, didn´t see your edit. just saw 600 and small-ish correction  


5. looks like a good explanation  

[Richy_T]

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Good point. I don't think Bitcoin has the awareness for it to make much of a difference yet but in time, every big credit card number theft story will work in Bitcoin's favor.

[maok]

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Good point. I don't think Bitcoin has the awareness for it to make much of a difference yet but in time, every big credit card number theft story will work in Bitcoin's favor.

I think daily there are tens of millions dollars stolen by credit card alone, those people will simply get a new card because they're ignorants and think the world revolves around banks. Well when a new financial crisis occurs they're be the first to drop dead while we'll keep on going in our little financial environment in which math controls our currency, not some crocked bankers and politicians.

[Richy_T]

I don't see any of those things happening in the US any time soon.  I was in new York last year, for a couple of weeks, and now I wonder whether the doomsday prophets are perhaps posting from another planet....

But New York is where all the money goes anyway.

Though you're correct in general, we've got a way to go before a real collapse and with a bit of luck, the landing won't be too hard. But it will be painful for many people and the wise are looking at ways to mitigate the impact on themselves as much as possible.

[anujjain]

When people start to realize how easy crazy is to buy things in locally and the internet without the need of giving credit card or bank information to anyone acceptance is going to increase. It's the next natural / logical step, credit cards are a thing of the past and obsolete.

Good point. I don't think Bitcoin has the awareness for it to make much of a difference yet but in time, every big credit card number theft story will work in Bitcoin's favor.

Awareness alwasy take time, and it's all about money so no one believe/trust so easily with money so just give time it will change and people start believing in Bitcoins.

[Richy_T]

I think that there are a lot of fools who dream of riches but who aren't ready to do any hard work for it.

The labor theory of value has been debunked for a long time.

[dreamspark]

Seems Mike Hearn and his Lighthouse project have scooped the main chunk of anarchystars $100k bounty.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/29n8o0/100000_bounty_winner_announcement/


I think this is fantastic and a much better alternative to setting up a separate foundation to do essentially what the Bitcoin Foundation does now. This will wrestle the main power that the Bitcoin Foundation has (being the one who pays the devs) from them and hopefully make them more and more obsolete as time goes on.

A great example of how apolitical Bitcoin is.

[Torque]

I think that there are a lot of fools who dream of riches but who aren't ready to do any hard work for it.

You mean like everyone on this sub forum?  

[justusranvier]

I am compiling a list of resources for a person that is totally not up to date and does not get Bitcoin/Crypto currency

The person has a finance background, and a legal background- the person is not technically minded

I have list of resources , videos, text, articles and good places to get key data.

has anyone any works they suggest may be suitable for this gentleman to read ?  (I get the feeling he is more of a reader than a video watcher, plus I have some good videos already- though if you have any amazing links please do share)

I am almost ready to send what I have, but just thought I would ask here if anyone has any good primers to add to my list or rather than me writing it all out again.

The gentleman is a man with very deep pockets and a group of investors, I have meetings planned with the person in question to discuss starting
a Crypto/Bitcoin relegated company here in the UK -

I am looking for good text primers for a person new to crypto but that has a good finance background,  not too basic, not too full on   have you any suggestions that I can add to my ever growing list ?  I do not want to send him everything, I am looking to cherry pick.

Already had one meeting with the chap in question, and before the next one I would like him to do some reading, so he knows more about where
his money is going to be going, before the next rounds of meetings- as the guy is pretty much a crypto newbie.

Thank you in advance.

http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2014/06/20/cash-and-credit-in-a-cryptocurrency-economy-part-1/
http://bitcoinism.liberty.me/2014/06/26/cash-and-credit-in-a-cryptocurrency-economy-part-2/

I'd also link part 3 but it's still being written.

[herzmeister]

The labor theory of value has been debunked for a long time.

there's the labor theory of value and then there's the labor theory of value

(most of the time it's just misunderstood)

[elg]

Adam, new poll pls

[adamstgBit]

much news today
such stories
very happening

[adamstgBit]

Adam, new poll pls

yes 1 min

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aminorex]

I get a minimum of 2% cashback on all my purchases, some stores get 5-10% off.

Power co-opts and absolute power co-opts absolutely.  You are the very embodiment of the tragedy of the commons.

[aminorex]

My opinion, bring on the negativity, is they should have donated ALL the SilkRoad
coins to a fund to be spread out proportionally to pay back all the MTGOX
victims.

Yes, we should reward people for making poor choices!

This isn't really a moral hazard case.  Society benefits from a general presumption that rule of law will hold.  When someone defects, and breaks that assumption, society benefits from fixing the breakage, because it supports adherence to and confidence in the rule of law.  Without rule of law, there is little reason to motivate productivity or competition, because what you make can be taken from you.

[maok]

Nah, they'll get all fit and healthy from having to push wheelbarrows full of cash around

Haha, on this theory US really needs an induced financial crisis so their population gets healthier

[aminorex]

This. I'm actually planning on buying a few bitcoins just so I can short them and buy them back cheaper. Repeat, get rich.

You will be.... TAIL RISK MAN!

[Cassius]

This. I'm actually planning on buying a few bitcoins just so I can short them and buy them back cheaper. Repeat, get rich.

You will be.... TAIL RISK MAN!

Ah, but there's nothing standard about my deviations.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I think that there are a lot of fools who dream of riches but who aren't ready to do any hard work for it.

The labor theory of value has been debunked for a long time.

I agree that labour theory of value had it's holes, but it wasn't all wrong.
It was argued that things should have value based on the work that has been spent on producing it. What was left out was the perspective of the consumers and how high they value a specific product. If someone spends 100hours to produce a pile of crap, then should he be rewarded for these hours? The obvious answer is no.

There is a catch though. If you leave out labour entirely, then it opens a big gate for deception. Then those will be rewarded who will deceive the consumer into believing that even a pile of crap has value. We can see this in the modern western world, where advertisement is spiralling out of control more and more every day. Advertisement should be used to inform the consumer, not to deceive the consumer, but the informative part has shrank into oblivion. Nowadays advertisement is openly deceiving the consumer and everyone involved get highly rewarded for that.
So, I think that the truth is somewhere in the middle. But in the context of my previous post, one truth remains.
If you want to generate wealth, then you have to either 1) work hard 2) be talented 3) deceive others
Now, with an honest heart, do you think that the majority of the people in this sub-forum are either working hard or being talented for the reward they think they are entitled for?

Just like bitcoin is advertised as an practical tool of finance, but only the numb minded ones get deceived by that rhetoric. "The cab drivers and grocery clerks" who have dreams of easy riches.
This deception is done to invite new members, who would increase the wealth of the older members. So, I really can't see much difference between bitcoin and a pyramid scheme. Can you? If so, then could you explain it?
A practical tool of finance, in a form of an currency, would be something that would be useless as an speculative investment. You could invest in the framework surrounding that currency, but the unit value should stay stable, and therefore useless for speculation. "The cab drivers and grocery clerks" wouldn't like that, because this would need better knowledge then to buy and hodl. Then you would have to have knowledge and experience on how an actual business works. But how many of those "choo choo" folks have ran their own business in the field of finance?
When the unit value is attractive for investments, then it just isn't possible to implement an stability mechanism to the unit value of the currency. And stability is THE thing needed for a quality currency. If you compare two different fiat's, then the main factor to consider is stability. With a stable currency, it's possible to make proper planning and predictions, which in turn are the foundation of an strong economy.