Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[FNG]

cost / value ratio Plummets yet again!

I'm just going to repeat myself, this is not sustainable, >800$ next week GUARANTEED

It's getting ridiculous how much good news and how un-stoppable bitcoin is becoming. Next serious surge could send us to hundreds of billions marketcap.

[byronbb]

Interesting post from Mining Spec forum.

When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Recalculating over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it is 23.45% and 11.41 days.


Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:

                                 Hash Rate    Power      Energy            Cost         Cost
     Date          Difficulty         TH/s       MW         MWh        $/Period        $/BTC
---------  ------------------  -----------  -------  ----------  --------------   ----------
10-Jul-14      20,762,587,053      148,627      149      40,687      $4,068,655       $80.73
21-Jul-14      25,631,656,286      183,481      183      50,228      $5,022,802       $99.66
02-Aug-14      31,642,579,140      226,510      227      62,007      $6,200,707      $123.03
13-Aug-14      39,063,133,629      279,629      280      76,548      $7,654,846      $151.88
25-Aug-14      48,223,894,840      345,205      345      94,500      $9,449,997      $187.50
05-Sep-14      59,532,961,579      426,160      426     116,661     $11,666,131      $231.47
16-Sep-14      73,494,136,594      526,100      526     144,020     $14,401,975      $285.75
28-Sep-14      90,729,370,258      649,476      649     177,794     $17,779,407      $352.77
09-Oct-14     112,006,467,575      801,786      802     219,489     $21,948,885      $435.49
21-Oct-14     138,273,292,794      989,814      990     270,962     $27,096,155      $537.62
01-Nov-14     170,699,995,402    1,221,937    1,222     334,505     $33,450,520      $663.70
12-Nov-14     210,731,138,613    1,508,495    1,508     412,951     $41,295,058      $819.35
24-Nov-14     260,150,052,591    1,862,255    1,862     509,792     $50,979,231    $1,011.49
05-Dec-14     321,158,279,258    2,298,976    2,299     629,345     $62,934,457    $1,248.70
17-Dec-14     396,473,647,839    2,838,112    2,838     776,933     $77,693,322    $1,541.53
28-Dec-14     489,451,350,262    3,503,683    3,504     959,133     $95,913,314    $1,903.04
08-Jan-15     604,233,410,162    4,325,337    4,325   1,184,061    $118,406,107    $2,349.33
20-Jan-15     745,933,204,108    5,339,679    5,340   1,461,737    $146,173,722    $2,900.27
31-Jan-15     920,863,255,215    6,591,897    6,592   1,804,532    $180,453,167    $3,580.42
12-Feb-15   1,136,816,447,014    8,137,773    8,138   2,227,715    $222,771,543    $4,420.07
23-Feb-15   1,403,413,185,274   10,046,176   10,046   2,750,141    $275,014,073    $5,456.63
06-Mar-15   1,732,529,973,307   12,402,122   12,402   3,395,081    $339,508,086    $6,736.27
18-Mar-15   2,138,828,493,208   15,310,564   15,311   4,191,267    $419,126,699    $8,316.01
29-Mar-15   2,640,408,762,814   18,901,071   18,901   5,174,168    $517,416,806   $10,266.21
10-Apr-15   3,259,615,465,609   23,333,592   23,334   6,387,571    $638,757,092   $12,673.75
21-Apr-15   4,024,033,374,406   28,805,592   28,806   7,885,531    $788,553,093   $15,645.89
02-May-15   4,967,716,213,515   35,560,840   35,561   9,734,780    $973,478,006   $19,315.04
14-May-15   6,132,703,703,449   43,900,273   43,900  12,017,700  $1,201,769,972   $23,844.64
25-May-15   7,570,894,370,329   54,195,400   54,195  14,835,991  $1,483,599,070   $29,436.49
06-Jun-15   9,346,357,550,986   66,904,854   66,905  18,315,204  $1,831,520,385   $36,339.69
17-Jun-15  11,538,187,590,255   82,594,824   82,595  22,610,333  $2,261,033,313   $44,861.77
29-Jun-15  14,244,027,380,899  101,964,275  101,964  27,912,720  $2,791,272,041   $55,382.38

In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before November 1

[derpinheimer]

Interesting post from Mining Spec forum.

When calculated in the OP over the time period from March 14, 2013 to March 13, 2014 the average increase in the difficulty and hash rate was 23.92% per adjustment period and the average length of each adjustment period was 11.38 days.

Recalculating over the period June 29, 2013 to June 29, 2014 it is 23.45% and 11.41 days.


Assuming the network growth rate over the next year is the same as it was this last year we get:

Code:

                                 Hash Rate    Power      Energy            Cost         Cost
     Date          Difficulty         TH/s       MW         MWh        $/Period        $/BTC
---------  ------------------  -----------  -------  ----------  --------------   ----------
10-Jul-14      20,762,587,053      148,627      149      40,687      $4,068,655       $80.73
21-Jul-14      25,631,656,286      183,481      183      50,228      $5,022,802       $99.66
02-Aug-14      31,642,579,140      226,510      227      62,007      $6,200,707      $123.03
13-Aug-14      39,063,133,629      279,629      280      76,548      $7,654,846      $151.88
25-Aug-14      48,223,894,840      345,205      345      94,500      $9,449,997      $187.50
05-Sep-14      59,532,961,579      426,160      426     116,661     $11,666,131      $231.47
16-Sep-14      73,494,136,594      526,100      526     144,020     $14,401,975      $285.75
28-Sep-14      90,729,370,258      649,476      649     177,794     $17,779,407      $352.77
09-Oct-14     112,006,467,575      801,786      802     219,489     $21,948,885      $435.49
21-Oct-14     138,273,292,794      989,814      990     270,962     $27,096,155      $537.62
01-Nov-14     170,699,995,402    1,221,937    1,222     334,505     $33,450,520      $663.70
12-Nov-14     210,731,138,613    1,508,495    1,508     412,951     $41,295,058      $819.35
24-Nov-14     260,150,052,591    1,862,255    1,862     509,792     $50,979,231    $1,011.49
05-Dec-14     321,158,279,258    2,298,976    2,299     629,345     $62,934,457    $1,248.70
17-Dec-14     396,473,647,839    2,838,112    2,838     776,933     $77,693,322    $1,541.53
28-Dec-14     489,451,350,262    3,503,683    3,504     959,133     $95,913,314    $1,903.04
08-Jan-15     604,233,410,162    4,325,337    4,325   1,184,061    $118,406,107    $2,349.33
20-Jan-15     745,933,204,108    5,339,679    5,340   1,461,737    $146,173,722    $2,900.27
31-Jan-15     920,863,255,215    6,591,897    6,592   1,804,532    $180,453,167    $3,580.42
12-Feb-15   1,136,816,447,014    8,137,773    8,138   2,227,715    $222,771,543    $4,420.07
23-Feb-15   1,403,413,185,274   10,046,176   10,046   2,750,141    $275,014,073    $5,456.63
06-Mar-15   1,732,529,973,307   12,402,122   12,402   3,395,081    $339,508,086    $6,736.27
18-Mar-15   2,138,828,493,208   15,310,564   15,311   4,191,267    $419,126,699    $8,316.01
29-Mar-15   2,640,408,762,814   18,901,071   18,901   5,174,168    $517,416,806   $10,266.21
10-Apr-15   3,259,615,465,609   23,333,592   23,334   6,387,571    $638,757,092   $12,673.75
21-Apr-15   4,024,033,374,406   28,805,592   28,806   7,885,531    $788,553,093   $15,645.89
02-May-15   4,967,716,213,515   35,560,840   35,561   9,734,780    $973,478,006   $19,315.04
14-May-15   6,132,703,703,449   43,900,273   43,900  12,017,700  $1,201,769,972   $23,844.64
25-May-15   7,570,894,370,329   54,195,400   54,195  14,835,991  $1,483,599,070   $29,436.49
06-Jun-15   9,346,357,550,986   66,904,854   66,905  18,315,204  $1,831,520,385   $36,339.69
17-Jun-15  11,538,187,590,255   82,594,824   82,595  22,610,333  $2,261,033,313   $44,861.77
29-Jun-15  14,244,027,380,899  101,964,275  101,964  27,912,720  $2,791,272,041   $55,382.38

In other words something has got to give by the end of the year, or actually before November 1

Hashrate bubble!! Its unsustainable!11!!11

[BitChick]

cost / value ratio Plummets yet again!

I'm just going to repeat myself, this is not sustainable, >800$ next week GUARANTEED

It's getting ridiculous how much good news and how un-stoppable bitcoin is becoming. Next serious surge could send us to hundreds of billions marketcap.

So what is keeping the train at the station this long?  Or are those of us that have been through a "bubble" or two just getting a bit impatient this time around?  I guess we were stuck at about $120 and $140 for a while last Summer.

[BitChick]

To the veterans here, does this pre-bubble FEEL different than the previous pre-bubbles (under the assumption that a bubble is nigh)?

Not that I am as much of a veteran as some, I remember last Summer getting very bored with the price.  It was pretty much doing what it has been doing now.  But it really started to gain some momentum.  When the price was at $200 I was fairly certain we were on the brink of the next bubble and we were.  I even thought we would never see $200 again.  That feeling was correct. 

I guess the price will have to start moving upwards in the next week or so, probably up to $800 before that same feeling will set in.  Then it will be crazy.   

[adamstgBit]

cost / value ratio Plummets yet again!

I'm just going to repeat myself, this is not sustainable, >800$ next week GUARANTEED

It's getting ridiculous how much good news and how un-stoppable bitcoin is becoming. Next serious surge could send us to hundreds of billions marketcap.

So what is keeping the train at the station this long?  Or are those of us that have been through a "bubble" or two just getting a bit impatient this time around?  I guess we were stuck at about $120 and $140 for a while last Summer.

my patients today have been thin... this may be the reason I've been shouting 800 all day long. idk.

one day at a time, no rush, it can't just pop 20% in a day, we are progressing nicely already anyway.

But i still think, feel, KNOW, price / value is at an all time low and dropping.

[FNG]

cost / value ratio Plummets yet again!

I'm just going to repeat myself, this is not sustainable, >800$ next week GUARANTEED

It's getting ridiculous how much good news and how un-stoppable bitcoin is becoming. Next serious surge could send us to hundreds of billions marketcap.

So what is keeping the train at the station this long?  Or are those of us that have been through a "bubble" or two just getting a bit impatient this time around?  I guess we were stuck at about $120 and $140 for a while last Summer.

Probably a combination of things. A lot of misinformation had to be cleared up, FUD, shit exchanges going bust, horror stories, fear of the auction, selling because of the auction, etc.

If this rise continues I imagine a lot of new money who has been bombarded with bitcoin over the past several months will make it's way to the exchanges as well as a lot of big money front-running the ETF and infrastructure that is being built backed by VC's.

Will probably happen quickly again..but I don't expect a major crash as fast or one that completely stops the train. Bitcoin is looking like a probable bet and the payoff, if successful, is huge. Will become a must have asset soon

[karolina]

To the veterans here, does this pre-bubble FEEL different than the previous pre-bubbles (under the assumption that a bubble is nigh)?

Feels pretty similar.... Especially with how LTC is behaving...

[karolina]

my patients today have been thin... this may be the reason I've been shouting 800 all day long. idk.

one day at a time, no rush, it can't just pop 20% in a day, we are progressing nicely already anyway.

But i still think, feel, KNOW, price / value is at an all time low and dropping.

Are you a doctor?

[adamstgBit]

my patients today have been thin... this may be the reason I've been shouting 800 all day long. idk.

one day at a time, no rush, it can't just pop 20% in a day, we are progressing nicely already anyway.

But i still think, feel, KNOW, price / value is at an all time low and dropping.

Are you a doctor?

I put in that pun just for you 

[adamstgBit]

[Parazyd]

He's Doctor Bitcoin

[derpinheimer]

He gave up on trying to go to the moon, so hes bringing the moon to him? Hmm.. I think I see where this is headed.





btw when I wake up it better be fckin >$660, or things will happen!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

If you want to generate wealth, then you have to either 1) work hard 2) be talented 3) deceive others

4) Let others do the hard work for you.

Wealthy people don't usually get wealthy by working for themselves. They let others do the hard work for them. And no this isn't taking advantage of people, it's called giving someone else a job.

Now I have definitive proof that Mervin is neither wealthy or knowledgeable about how to acquire wealth.

And this fits right in line with one of my life mottos --- "NEVER get advice from someone who does not have the success in life that you want. Don't get diet advice from a fat person, money advice from a broke or middle class person, marriage advice from a relationship therapist that has been divorced multiple time, etc. etc."

There are so many ways to acquire wealth beyond the 3 that Mervin listed. And HARD WORK does NOT equate with wealth. It does sometimes, but often times it does not.

Mervin, you've literally pulled down your pants and exposed yourself. Fraud.

Excellent  points here, especially regarding the variety of ways to become wealthy, including living within your means... .  Pumpkinhead seems to be lacking - though in several of his previous posts, he has demonstrated such.

[ShroomsKit]

To the veterans here, does this pre-bubble FEEL different than the previous pre-bubbles (under the assumption that a bubble is nigh)?

The difference is the 6 months of bear shit and goxxing and fud we've just had. This wasn't the case last time.
It was just good news and good news meant up.
In those 6 months people have been trained to dump on every news. It's hard to go up when people dumb in blind panic because of a press conference. Also lots of people who bought in at 700-1000 months ago and they want their money back. This is obviously something we didn't have before.

It does feel the same. There is just so much more stopping us from going up. And it sucks.
The people trying to make their money back i totally understand but those panic sellers...man.

[justusranvier]

To the veterans here, does this pre-bubble FEEL different than the previous pre-bubbles (under the assumption that a bubble is nigh)?

The difference is the 6 months of bear shit and goxxing and fud we've just had. This wasn't the case last time.
It was just good news and good news meant up.
In those 6 months people have been trained to dump on every news. It's hard to go up when people dumb in blind panic because of a press conference. Also lots of people who bought in at 700-1000 months ago and they want their money back. This is obviously something we didn't have before.

It does feel the same. There is just so much more stopping us from going up. And it sucks.
The people trying to make their money back i totally understand but those panic sellers...man.

Feels a bit like 2011 (post mania) - early 2013.

Two years of an almost uninterrupted stream of good news, with little price movement.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Spaceman_Spiff]

To the veterans here, does this pre-bubble FEEL different than the previous pre-bubbles (under the assumption that a bubble is nigh)?

The difference is the 6 months of bear shit and goxxing and fud we've just had. This wasn't the case last time.
It was just good news and good news meant up.
In those 6 months people have been trained to dump on every news. It's hard to go up when people dumb in blind panic because of a press conference. Also lots of people who bought in at 700-1000 months ago and they want their money back. This is obviously something we didn't have before.

It does feel the same. There is just so much more stopping us from going up. And it sucks.
The people trying to make their money back i totally understand but those panic sellers...man.

Feels a bit like 2011 (post mania) - early 2013.

Two years of an almost uninterrupted stream of good news, with little price movement.

I am fine with another plateau phase, followed by a big-ass bubble 

[justusranvier]

I am fine with another plateau phase, followed by a big-ass bubble 

That's indeed the best way to accumulate more bitcoins.