Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

get out now before it drops to 0  

[magicmexican]

get out now before it drops to 0  

Or get out when its 0, just dont wait till its below 0, debts are bad

[aminorex]

I hate

Now I feel polluted for having read your post.

Your puerile contempt means squat.  Try facts and sound reasoning next time.

Told you earlier: you went from 'somewhat insightful' to 'cheerleader' in less than half a year. But whatever suits your financial decisions.

I am no cheerleader.I encourage long term holding, it is true, because my best modeling efforts dictate long-term appreciation, and I have very strong doubts about the skills of the median market timer.  But I hold out short term bearish views roughly as often as they are justified (at least since my monkey got up to speed). I was utterly deluded about mt.gox, which i attribute to reaction against fud and criminal attacks.  That probably merits a cheerleader badge, but i think i tore it off and trampled it several months ago, when the exchange failed utterly. During the past 3 months we have been on a strong gradual uptrend.  I suppose that acknowledging this is a kind of cheerleading.  In that case I am without objection, but your label is unduly prejudicial.

Regardless of how you choose to categorize me, or anyone else, the wbn site offers convenient access to a genuinely useful model for scenario analysis. The ire of your reaction to it seems unlikely to correspond to a rational outlook. If you could identify defects of the model, that would be constructive.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kireinaha]

We don't need major news; we've already had crazy good news for weeks. there is just too much sell pressure. Someone, or some organization -- for whatever reason -- has been doing all they can to keep the market value artificially low. Once their cache is depleted, we will go up again faster than most can imagine. That could take weeks or months though.

[ElectricMucus]

We don't need major news; we've already had crazy good news for weeks. there is just too much sell pressure. Someone, or some organization -- for whatever reason -- has been doing all they can to keep the market value artificially low. Once their cache is depleted, we will go up again faster than most can imagine. That could take weeks or months though.

What about miners paying power bills?

[Newbie1022]

Crash 'O Clock!!!! Also known as Friday afternoons.

[Torque]

Nope, don't even try debating with Oda directly on bitcoin's long term potential.  Not worth the breath.  I'll stop short of calling Oda an outright troll, but shortsighted permabear is adaquate enough of a label.

You string words together, but there is no thought at all behind them, huh?

You have very clearly no idea of what my ideas are about the long term prospect of Bitcoin. But in a way I'm happy you posted - you're an excellent example of what I described in my post right above: you're one of those in here for whom any perceived opposition to the only possible outcome of the million dollar coin must be met with the utmost contempt ("permabear", "troll", "shortsighted").

Never let facts or reasoning get in the way of a good dream.

Could you please link me your long term ideas? Anytime I'm interested in non-trolling alternative views...

I avoid technical predictions that go further into the future than a month or two, and definitely can't provide a price target for 2015 based on them. Otherwise you get silly threads like the loglinear extrapolation threads that present a (debatable, but itself worthy of consideration) model, and then are full of people tripping over each other misinterpreting and misapplying those models: "We are now 0.4 log delta below the trendline, which means: we can only go up!".

I wrote what you could call a post on fundamentals here, dismissing the idea that Bitcoin "only has speculative value", arriving at an absolute lower bound of around $2000 in case the rather likely scenario I describe becomes true (that Bitcoin commercial transfer volume will be at least as high as that of Paypal last year.)

Yes Oda, you're right, please enlighten all of us of where you think the Bitcoin world will be at the 5 and 10 year mark from today.  Or is that too hard for you??  Because I haven't heard you enlighten us with your infinite wisdom on that topic yet?  All I hear you do is whine about the bulls.

I'll tell ya what, I'll make it even easier for you.  Tell us where you think that Bitcoin will be in 2016?  I assume still at your supposed $2000 "fair value" level?

Or do you and Blitz just think we're all cultists?

(And btw Blitz, if you think we're all just a bunch cultists, then WTF are you doing here as a Moderator on a Bitcoin forum?  Hypocrit much?)

[fonzie]

Bullvictim No11: ODA KRELL

Shroomskit and his intellectual army in full effect

[dgarcia]

Yes Oda, please enlighten all of us of where you think the Bitcoin world will be at the 5 and 10 year mark from today.  Or is that too hard for you??  Because I haven't heard you enlighten us with your infinite wisdom on that topic yet?  All I hear you do is whine about the bulls.

I'll tell ya what, I'll make it even easier for you.  Tell us where you think that Bitcoin will be in 2016?

Or do you and Blitz just think we're all cultists?

(And btw Blitz, if you think we're all just a bunch cultists, then WTF are you doing here as a Moderator on a Bitcoin forum?  Hypocrit much?)

But he has written:

I avoid technical predictions that go further into the future than a month or two, and definitely can't provide a price target for 2015 based on them...

His linked posting makes a very rudimentary impression to me. But I enjoy reading all kinds of analysis. Uber-Bullish, bullish, neutral, bearish, uber-bearish.

It extends your horizon and ensures not to turn cultist.

And with this:

To be clear: I don't rule out substantially higher valuations. I just despise the fake certainty with which those predictions are presented by the usual suspects, and the aggressiveness with which less optimistic predictions are met. The crypto capitalization event itself dosn't need to be a Ponzie, but a subset of users in here sure are trying their best to make it look like one.

I totally agree.

[dropt]

What about miners paying power bills?

If someone could be so kind as to find out what KnC and Bitfury/MBP/CEX/GHASH.IO are doing with their mined coins, I'd love to know.  And by find I out, I mean actually find out, not this OTC sales wishy washy bullshit I keep hearing.

[ElectricMucus]

What about miners paying power bills?

If someone could be so kind as to find out what KnC and Bitfury/MBP/CEX/GHASH.IO are doing with their mined coins, I'd love to know.  And by find I out, I mean actually find out, not this OTC sales wishy washy bullshit I keep hearing.

No can do.
All that you can do is take the current hashrate and guess the power efficacy and costs per kw/h to arrive at some number. It's not much but you can come by with some ballpark figure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Colonel Panic]

we finally get a "grown up" insured exchange, there will be less "flash crash" pressure because fiat will be happily left pre-placed

like MF Global?

Puh-leeze. You can do better than that.

[adamstgBit]

Massive Cup and Handle

Progressing nicely

[kryptopojken]

Something tells me "real" traders would laugh at that gigantic so-called cup n handle formation

[samsonn25]

EMA $615

Price is dropping

[adamstgBit]

Something tells me "real" traders would laugh at that gigantic so-called cup n handle formation

pretty sure everyone is loling, and then they pause for a second and think, "is it funny cuz its true O_o?"

[ubercool]

Something tells me "real" traders would laugh at that gigantic so-called cup n handle formation

pretty sure everyone is loling, and then they pause for a second and think, "is it funny cuz its true O_o?"

you guys really imagine too much, it's not cup and handle formation yet, give some more time then we can say but not yet.

[spooderman]

Bitcoin price defies TA in the long term. Obviously humans are humans and these patterns we think we see will be imposed on the price, because what everyone thinks is going to happen, usually does.

But bitcoin be the black swan remember It will surprise us, most likely in a positive way (for those who hodl.) I am convinced that almost everyone here is a long term bull, and some brave/greedy types just want to grab as much of the land of the future-gigantic-bitcoin-based place currently under construction that they can.

Never hodl an amount that is stressing you out, because money isn't everything and this makes it easier to not be scared by every little piece of FUD that comes along.

Keep on bitcoiners,

I love you all