Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jeezy]

OKCoin 15m H&S could get really interesting soon

Seems confirmed then. Let's go people!

[JayJuanGee]

I care about your trading to the extent that it may become an issue of discussion.  My discussion of your trading or your assets is NOT done out of envy, but sometimes to bring in check some of your outrageous statements.  If you do NOT make outrageous statements, then it will be easier for me (or anyone else for that matter) to refrain from responding to them or inquiring about them.

Yes, we talk about quite a few things here in this thread, but largely those topics seem to be related to bitcoin, even though sometimes tangentially related to bitcoin...

I would like you to point one of my outrageous statements, I want to know what you think is outrageous.

We do NOT need to revisit all of our posts b/c I am sure that I have already pointed out several outrageous statements to you over the last couple of months.  I may have NOT called them outrageous statements at the time, but taken together they likely add up to OUTRAGE.     

Additionally, I am sure sooner or later, you will make another "outrageous statement," so we can cross that bridge when, or if, we get there.  If we do NOT get there, then that is fine, too.

[klee]

Wow. Why is no one panicking!?

Pretty much expected scenario - no rally unless the masses enter again.
Now only speculators and fans - with the ASICs we lost too many hobbyists and why the hell should some middle/lower class newbie buy in these prices?
Because moon?

EDIT: Not to mention that the Ripple/Fidor partnership will basically get the biggest piece of the remittance industry

I thought masses were supposed to enter late in the game.

With hedge funds only money we are going nowhere IMHO

[tarmi]

Yes, inadequately summarize what Rpietila said, and then assert that what he said is "silly."  That helps us to better understand the situation.    

Inadequate? What other way is there to interpret him claiming that there are no sellers left and everyone right now are buying? I'm genuinely curious, and apologies to rpietila if I misunderstood what you said.

Maybe you did NOT inadequately summarize him on purpose, but you are putting a lot of new ideas into his communication that he did NOT assert.

In his statement, he is merely suggesting that all sellers have gotten out already a long time ago, and there are NO sellers left.  YES>>>> Maybe he is exaggerating a little bit, b/c there are going to be some exceptions to his assertion; however, what Rpietila is saying is largely true and accurate reflection of what is currently happening in the bitcoin space.  

no, it is not true.

big asic mining companies will dump their coins no matter what the price is.

You have any evidence of this?  or just a bare assertion that is NOT supported by anything beyond your mere thoughts?

you cant pay your electricity with bitcoins.

and I know that there are asic farms that are spending 1 mil of $ every month.

If you assume that ASIC farms are stretching their finances so thin that they do NOT have any fiat and they only have BTC,then maybe they would have to sell some of them.  HOWEVER, if they realize that BTC are currently way under priced and that BTC are likely to appreciate in value considerably, then they may reconsider whether they will cash out.  

Additionally, if they realize that the BTC that they HODL are more likely to go up in value if they do NOT sell at low prices, then they will have a greater incentive to HODL until the prices go a bit higher.  I would think that they have budgeted for downward trends and sideways trends in order that they do NOT have to sell out of desperation.  NO one likes to have to sell out of desperation (and I am sure that there may be some miners that are thinly stretched and forced to sell, but that may be the exception rather than the rule).

Accordingly, we still need evidence if you are going to assert that they are selling contrary to their better interest to HODL... or at least to minimize selling if they need to do it.

I really dont care if you need more evidence. For big miners, mining is a business, so they have to cover their costs from what they mine.

If they pay electricity out of their pocket because they think that the price will go up, they could just stop being a mining business and buy the coins instead.

You do NOT care about evidence b/c you merely want to push your thesis that logically does NOT make sense for the reasons that I described in my earlier post.  

But that is fine, you can stick with your assumptions about miners being stretched razor thin and NOT realizing what is in their own interest(s).  Your assumptions seem pie in the sky to me, but that does NOT mean that you cannot continue with such beliefs b/c it seems to make you feel good to suggest that 3400 coins are being dumped on the market on a daily basis.. when in fact we are likely NOT seeing such dumping.  

And, yes there may be some miners who are also interested in accumulating additional coins by buying some, too.

if you are in a mining business - you dump your coins, unless you are a small miner who overpaid his hardware.

if you dont dump your coins to pay your bills, you are not a miner anymore, but a speculator.

You act as if you know something, but it really looks as if you are attempting to narrowly define concepts in order that you can be correct, but even if you narrowly define concepts, you seem to have NO evidence regarding the level to which there may be a supposed prevalence of miners who "dump their coins" in the real world.  It makes little to NO logical sense for the reasons that I already described in my earlier post, and your making definitions does NOT shed better light on what is ACTUALLY taking place IN THE REAL WORLD.

I dont need evidences. I dont have to measure or speculate the number of coins that miners dump everyday.

for me definition of a mining business and the fact that there are new 3600 coins everyday are enough to conclude that there will be ALWAYS some selling pressure from the miners.

with ASICs and concentration of hash in bigger farms more then ever actually.

[vuduchyld]

The awesome part about this particular low slippage purchase, is I'm fairly certain it's the GABI backers.  If so, every coin I take from them now, without slippage, will have to be repurchased in a few days, hopefully with lots of slippage!

Hard to believe they would be so unsophisticated.  But I guess it ain't their money.

[lemonte]

The awesome part about this particular low slippage purchase, is I'm fairly certain it's the GABI backers.  If so, every coin I take from them now, without slippage, will have to be repurchased in a few days, hopefully with lots of slippage!

GABI aren't buying yet, call them and they will confirm:

Global Advisors
Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited
Spectrum Gloucester Street
St. Helier
Jersey JE2 3DE
Channel Islands
+44 1534 513 100   

Daniel Masters
Telephone: +44 1534 513 131
Fax: +44 1534 513 102
Email: dm@GlobalAdvisors.co.uk   

Russell Newton
Telephone: +44 1534 513 151
Fax: +44 1534 513 102
Email: rpn@GlobalAdvisors.co.uk

[JayJuanGee]

There may be some truth to what you are saying, but I doubt that potential bitcoin investors are giving as much weight to MTGOX factors as you are making out of the situation.  My understanding is that investment and adoption has considered to go up in the BTC space at a considerable rate, in spite of the GOX collapse in February and some of the later news of its various fallouts.  Accordingly adoption and investment and liquidation opportunities are going to help to drive the next upward price wave.. whether that occurs this week, in the next couple of weeks, in the next couple of months or even a year down the road.  

By the way, I doubt it is going to take another year before we find a new ATH.. that will likely soar BTC prices into at least the $3-5K range.. and possibly higher, if such growth is delayed further.  In that regard, I am glad to be amongst early adopters (not as early as some but NOT as late as others, too).  

I respect your doubts and guesses, because it's a speculation forum afterall. But, if you are an experienced investor, then these "little" things are The things that you have to consider when investing. To me, the market seems weak and it's perfectly logical to me why. Most of the people here like to think that the weak market is all one conspiracy, and there are always whales around the corner who will throw millions at BTC any moment now.. any moment now.. it will surely happen any moment now. To me, things are more simple then that. Currently it's just very hard to convince someone new to buy bitcoins without looking like a snake oil salesman.

Well, ultimately when people invest, they consider probabilities and then invest accordingly. Some people stick to their guns and just wait it out, and others waffle and others monitor and methodically readjust their investments.  If some people consider bitcoins to be like snake oil, then they will likely choose NOT to invest or they may choose to get out of BTC as an investment.  I doubt that the perception of snake oil is as prevalent as you make it out to be, and instead there are more and more people who are becoming inclined to invest in BTC rather than disinclined.. and we will see how that evolves over the coming months.  I expect upward, and you seem to be communicating that you expect downward, and we will see who is right... that is if you are still hanging around here (to save us from ourselves and the snake oil salesmen) next year.

[Phillis]

i can see GABI eating at those 515 walls in seconds.

[JayJuanGee]

If 3100 wall on huobi fall, we are in trouble

Already broken on OKcoin.

I believe that hammering guy did NOT live to hammer again.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Well, ultimately when people invest, they consider probabilities and then invest accordingly. Some people stick to their guns and just wait it out, and others waffle and others monitor and methodically readjust their investments.  If some people consider bitcoins to be like snake oil, then they will likely choose NOT to invest or they may choose to get out of BTC as an investment.  I doubt that the perception of snake oil is as prevalent as you make it out to be, and instead there are more and more people who are becoming inclined to invest in BTC rather than disinclined.. and we will see how that evolves over the coming months.  I expect upward, and you seem to be communicating that you expect downward, and we will see who is right... that is if you are still hanging around here (to save us from ourselves and the snake oil salesmen) next year.

Ok, let's just see how the market goes, and how your doubts will work out for you

[mymenace]

Seems logical for a large holder currently investing in a startup bitcoin fund would want to keep a market moving sideways so when the fund starts it is easier to attract investors

I love speculation

thoughts anyone

[mmitech]

I care about your trading to the extent that it may become an issue of discussion.  My discussion of your trading or your assets is NOT done out of envy, but sometimes to bring in check some of your outrageous statements.  If you do NOT make outrageous statements, then it will be easier for me (or anyone else for that matter) to refrain from responding to them or inquiring about them.

Yes, we talk about quite a few things here in this thread, but largely those topics seem to be related to bitcoin, even though sometimes tangentially related to bitcoin...

I would like you to point one of my outrageous statements, I want to know what you think is outrageous.

We do NOT need to revisit all of our posts b/c I am sure that I have already pointed out several outrageous statements to you over the last couple of months.  I may have NOT called them outrageous statements at the time, but taken together they likely add up to OUTRAGE.    

Additionally, I am sure sooner or later, you will make another "outrageous statement," so we can cross that bridge when, or if, we get there.  If we do NOT get there, then that is fine, too.

in fact, I do remember, the only outrageous thing I recall is you getting pissed off when I said I sold half of my stash to take 2 years off, and when I pointed out that I like the concept of forbidden interest on loans Islam applies in economics... you took my statement poorly and outrageously, the first statement is a personal choice, so I don't know why you care, the second statement is about me being open about religions and ideas, I studied many religions and I found the general concept to be a horse shit and delusion and just a way to govern people in the past, but this doesn't mean there is nothing to learn from them, I did learn so many amazing and smart concepts from different religions.

since these 2 statements, you tend to attack me like an enemy, the thing is that hiding behind a screen gives you the courage to write such ignorant and hurtful things, I would like to meet you in person and have you tell me these things to my face.

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, inadequately summarize what Rpietila said, and then assert that what he said is "silly."  That helps us to better understand the situation.    

Inadequate? What other way is there to interpret him claiming that there are no sellers left and everyone right now are buying? I'm genuinely curious, and apologies to rpietila if I misunderstood what you said.

Maybe you did NOT inadequately summarize him on purpose, but you are putting a lot of new ideas into his communication that he did NOT assert.

In his statement, he is merely suggesting that all sellers have gotten out already a long time ago, and there are NO sellers left.  YES>>>> Maybe he is exaggerating a little bit, b/c there are going to be some exceptions to his assertion; however, what Rpietila is saying is largely true and accurate reflection of what is currently happening in the bitcoin space.  

no, it is not true.

big asic mining companies will dump their coins no matter what the price is.

You have any evidence of this?  or just a bare assertion that is NOT supported by anything beyond your mere thoughts?

you cant pay your electricity with bitcoins.

and I know that there are asic farms that are spending 1 mil of $ every month.

If you assume that ASIC farms are stretching their finances so thin that they do NOT have any fiat and they only have BTC,then maybe they would have to sell some of them.  HOWEVER, if they realize that BTC are currently way under priced and that BTC are likely to appreciate in value considerably, then they may reconsider whether they will cash out.  

Additionally, if they realize that the BTC that they HODL are more likely to go up in value if they do NOT sell at low prices, then they will have a greater incentive to HODL until the prices go a bit higher.  I would think that they have budgeted for downward trends and sideways trends in order that they do NOT have to sell out of desperation.  NO one likes to have to sell out of desperation (and I am sure that there may be some miners that are thinly stretched and forced to sell, but that may be the exception rather than the rule).

Accordingly, we still need evidence if you are going to assert that they are selling contrary to their better interest to HODL... or at least to minimize selling if they need to do it.

I really dont care if you need more evidence. For big miners, mining is a business, so they have to cover their costs from what they mine.

If they pay electricity out of their pocket because they think that the price will go up, they could just stop being a mining business and buy the coins instead.

You do NOT care about evidence b/c you merely want to push your thesis that logically does NOT make sense for the reasons that I described in my earlier post.  

But that is fine, you can stick with your assumptions about miners being stretched razor thin and NOT realizing what is in their own interest(s).  Your assumptions seem pie in the sky to me, but that does NOT mean that you cannot continue with such beliefs b/c it seems to make you feel good to suggest that 3400 coins are being dumped on the market on a daily basis.. when in fact we are likely NOT seeing such dumping.  

And, yes there may be some miners who are also interested in accumulating additional coins by buying some, too.

if you are in a mining business - you dump your coins, unless you are a small miner who overpaid his hardware.

if you dont dump your coins to pay your bills, you are not a miner anymore, but a speculator.

You act as if you know something, but it really looks as if you are attempting to narrowly define concepts in order that you can be correct, but even if you narrowly define concepts, you seem to have NO evidence regarding the level to which there may be a supposed prevalence of miners who "dump their coins" in the real world.  It makes little to NO logical sense for the reasons that I already described in my earlier post, and your making definitions does NOT shed better light on what is ACTUALLY taking place IN THE REAL WORLD.

I dont need evidences. I dont have to measure or speculate the number of coins that miners dump everyday.

for me definition of a mining business and the fact that there are new 3600 coins everyday are enough to conclude that there will be ALWAYS some selling pressure from the miners.

with ASICs and concentration of hash in bigger farms more then ever actually.

I agree with you to the extent that you are suggesting that sooner or later the 3600 coins per day will be sold, but there is a lot of difference regarding whether or NOT they are sold on an ongoing basis or whether the  miners are more strategic with their selling. It makes little to no sense that they would just blindly flat sell them at set intervals, and it make a heck of a lot more sense that they are going to attempt to time the sales to be more effective and to get more bang for the buck.  On the other hand, there will be some instances in which they will be forced to sell to pay for electricity for example, as you mentioned; however, in those cases that they are forced to sell for rates that they believe to be below market, the rational miner would minimize the amount that s/he sells at that particular time in order to wait for higher prices, which are inevitable so long as miners do NOT dump coins.

[Teppino]

I've read that Jersey is a fiscal heaven, i'm wondering (no trolling) if fund like GABI can be used for somehow dumping bitcoins for tax free cash instead of buying like everyone seems to be expecting.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, ultimately when people invest, they consider probabilities and then invest accordingly. Some people stick to their guns and just wait it out, and others waffle and others monitor and methodically readjust their investments.  If some people consider bitcoins to be like snake oil, then they will likely choose NOT to invest or they may choose to get out of BTC as an investment.  I doubt that the perception of snake oil is as prevalent as you make it out to be, and instead there are more and more people who are becoming inclined to invest in BTC rather than disinclined.. and we will see how that evolves over the coming months.  I expect upward, and you seem to be communicating that you expect downward, and we will see who is right... that is if you are still hanging around here (to save us from ourselves and the snake oil salesmen) next year.

Ok, let's just see how the market goes, and how your doubts will work out for you

Would you like to pick a date that we can check in with one another regarding the price and/or the success of bitcoin?  I prefer to pick a date after May of next year, but if you think another date would be suitable, we could do that as well.

[dannyspk]

I've read that Jersey is a fiscal heaven, i'm wondering (no trolling) if fund like GABI can be used for somehow dumping bitcoins for tax free cash instead of buying like everyone seems to be expecting.

Who's gonna buy when someone is gonna dump?

[Teppino]

I've read that Jersey is a fiscal heaven, i'm wondering (no trolling) if fund like GABI can be used for somehow dumping bitcoins for tax free cash instead of buying like everyone seems to be expecting.

Who's gonna buy when someone is gonna dump?

i can only guess: you buy cheap off exchange, say china, then you sell there.

edit: on second tought i see your point...still looks to me it could be a price race to the downside

[wachtwoord]

Well, ultimately when people invest, they consider probabilities and then invest accordingly. Some people stick to their guns and just wait it out, and others waffle and others monitor and methodically readjust their investments.  If some people consider bitcoins to be like snake oil, then they will likely choose NOT to invest or they may choose to get out of BTC as an investment.  I doubt that the perception of snake oil is as prevalent as you make it out to be, and instead there are more and more people who are becoming inclined to invest in BTC rather than disinclined.. and we will see how that evolves over the coming months.  I expect upward, and you seem to be communicating that you expect downward, and we will see who is right... that is if you are still hanging around here (to save us from ourselves and the snake oil salesmen) next year.

Ok, let's just see how the market goes, and how your doubts will work out for you

Would you like to pick a date that we can check in with one another regarding the price and/or the success of bitcoin?  I prefer to pick a date after May of next year, but if you think another date would be suitable, we could do that as well.

10-20 years in the future would be good.

[JorgeStolfi]

If you assume that ASIC farms are stretching their finances so thin that they do NOT have any fiat and they only have BTC,then maybe they would have to sell some of them.

Mining being a free market, it should be the case that the supply (miners) expands and ajusts until the activity is about as profitable as any other business.  In that case one would expect miners to make only 10-20% over costs.

(However, since the difficulty and price change rather quickly,  the mining market may far from equilibrium, in either way.)

The set of miners and the set of people who believe in bitcoin-to-the-moon may overlap to some extent, but do not have to.  A person can be skeptical of bitcoin but engage in large-scale mining (or day-trading) if he thinks that it is lucrative.  Bythe same token, there seem to be many bitcoiners who day-trade altcoins even though they think that all altcoins will die.

The huge cost of a large-scale mining operation is not proof of long-term faith in bitcoin.  The investors must know that all that equipment will be junk within a year anyway.  They are betting that that BTC price & total hashrate wll be within certain ranges for the next year or so, so that mining will yield more (in dollar terms) than their investment, within that time frame.  Otherwise they should have either kept their dollars or used them to buy bitcoins on the market, depending on their long-term outlook.