Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

The dynamics are in plain sight, if some can look through the fog:

- non-recommendable people came into power in Ukraine
- Russia occupy Crimea
- EU countries supposed to fear about the mean in which the energy market express
- US reveal a new gas deposit that 'can feed Europe'
- Putin play the nonchalance game
- EU does nothing
- US gas deposit re-estimated at 95% less than declared by independent analysts
- a few weeks ago Ukraine and Russia start talks to officially de-escalate the situation
- US media keep reporting about tensions anyway
- Russia dump 1/3 of his American T-Bonds
- US public political figures play macho 'at ridiculous levels'
- Putin tell them to 'do some yoga and relax', also he is photographed with gold ingots in his hand

This, bear in mind, is only a tiny fraction of the game.

Another side-story, all of this in August

- Prime minister of Japan on a national holiday pay homage to WWII war criminals, that killed 10s of millions of chinese
- China complain
- US 'publicly confirm' WWII era 'military friendship' with Australia
- Prime minister of Japan talk to the Australian parliament, his words a 'de-facto military alliance' according to analysts

Then there is the ISIS situation, that i still have to gasp, but rest assured it has something to do with Saudis.

Why all of this? Because the USD is being dropped as the world reserve currency in international trades.

right I am with you on all of it.. these are certainly parts of the game being played... parts of it.. but as I said.. the game has not finished.. it never does.. in the end I do not think we are going to plunge into world war 3 (at least not just yet) certainly not on purpose anyway

The ISIS situation in my view has got a Saudi element to it (what does not these days) but also a US and UK and also a Russian,Iranian,Iraqi,Syrian, Israeli elements to it too.. who knows what the next move is there... and from whom... but I know my gov and media wants to make us feel that the next move is a bang in my back yard.. why would they do that? and will there actually be a bang ? or is the fear of,  enough?

The question who is "is-is" is not benign, and it quite important...  really who is pulling their strings and what is their end game and where will it stop, and is it part of a bigger game? is this a Matryoshka doll of games? could it be that they are linked and part of a far bigger game? most likely.

My government/media and the US government/media and all of the social media networks have been making a point of ramming (ISIS) down my visual oesophagus for quite some time, and arabs in general for the past 25 years...  and there has been move after move..  who knows what the next move is?

How scared do any of the players need people to be to achieve their next goals?

Unless you think that we are at a point in history , where no bad shit is ever going to happen again (to westeners in the west, I mean because it certainly has not stopped in much of the world) which I find quite a statement to stand behind... I could only hope you are right... but the game is not over methinks... and earlier you mentioned that it is "too late" well I am not sure about that... is the ante not increasing in more and more ways?
I would welcome a situation where the west is not attacked on its own soil again.. but do I believe it... sorry no..

and then if/when that happens....

what will come .........next.

[1715462110]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

right I am with you on all of it.. these are certainly parts of the game being played... parts of it.. but as I said.. the game has not finished.. it never does.. in the end I do not think we are going to plunge into world war 3 (at least not just yet) certainly not on purpose anyway

The ISIS situation in my view has got a Saudi element to it, but also a US and UK and also a Russian,Iranian,Syrian, Israeli elements to it too.. who knows what the next move is there... and from whom.

The question who is is-is is not benign, and it quite important...  really who is pulling their strings and what is their end game and where will it stop, and is it part of a bigger game? is this a Matryoshka doll of games? could it be that they are linked and part of a far bigger game? most likely.

My government and the US government and all of the social media networks have been making a point of ramming (ISIS) down my visual oesophagus for quite some time, and arabs in general for the past 25 years...  and there has been move after move..  who know what the next move is?

How scared do any of the players need people to be to achieve their next goals?

The major player in this game is desperate, the others are doing yoga...
If the major player attempt something stupid, his own people will get so much unstable as to make it powerless.
Their only move is to trigger a war somewhere and/or some other casus belli for military interventions.
Just to gain some years of time. But their destiny is inevitable.

It all started with the 2 world wars. The turning point was the Nixon Shock.
The major player economy has sucked the blood of the rest of the world for a long time.
The rest of the world is about to get rid of the yoke, without a single drop of blood.
They only have to do nothing, and watch the dynamics unfold.

As I said, the whole game is about the status of the USD as reserve currency in international trades.
If someone may say that is a 'nut theory', he is invited to wait until their newspapers start saying the same thing.
Oh wait... oooops

[roslinpl]

Question: price will go below 500 next week    
yes    29 (47.5%)
no    19 (31.1%)
idk    13 (21.3%)
   
Total Voters: 61

Are you kidding me? You guys (most of you) think for real that price will go <$500 next week?

Where are bulls? What is happening to you?

I am very sure that price will stay >$500 for now.

We will see ...

[empowering]

right I am with you on all of it.. these are certainly parts of the game being played... parts of it.. but as I said.. the game has not finished.. it never does.. in the end I do not think we are going to plunge into world war 3 (at least not just yet) certainly not on purpose anyway

The ISIS situation in my view has got a Saudi element to it, but also a US and UK and also a Russian,Iranian,Syrian, Israeli elements to it too.. who knows what the next move is there... and from whom.

The question who is is-is is not benign, and it quite important...  really who is pulling their strings and what is their end game and where will it stop, and is it part of a bigger game? is this a Matryoshka doll of games? could it be that they are linked and part of a far bigger game? most likely.

My government and the US government and all of the social media networks have been making a point of ramming (ISIS) down my visual oesophagus for quite some time, and arabs in general for the past 25 years...  and there has been move after move..  who know what the next move is?

How scared do any of the players need people to be to achieve their next goals?

The major player in this game is desperate, the others are doing yoga...
If the major player attempt something stupid, his own people will get so much unstable as to make it powerless.
Their only move is to trigger a war somewhere and/or some other casus belli for military interventions.
Just to gain some years of time. But their destiny is inevitable.

It all started with the 2 world wars. The turning point was the Nixon Shock.
The major player economy has sucked the blood of the rest of the world for a long time.
The rest of the world is about to get rid of the yoke, without a single drop of blood.
They only have to do nothing, and watch the dynamics unfold.

As I said, the whole game is about the status of the USD as reserve currency in international trades.
If someone may say that is a 'nut theory', he is invited to wait until their newspapers start saying the same thing.
Oh wait... oooops

Thing is , Russia today is not the Russia of yesteryear, they can now provide most of what they need, and have enough other allies that they can survive easily with our US or the EU and their sanctions..   so I am not sure how effective more severe sanctions will be...  

They still have a fantastically bloated military (4.1% of their GDP, more than the US, which is already bloated). Their main source of export income is through natural resources.

If the US and the EU come to terms on this and block all imports of natural resources, you can be sure it will be felt in Russia. It'll also be felt in the EU (higher energy prices, first of all), but I very much doubt it'll have the same impact as it would on Russia if military wages and pensions aren't paid on time anymore. Which, if it would come to that, would be supremely ironic, since that's at least a major factor how Putin consolidated his power - keeping the military happy.

Indeed I do hear you, but my point is that Russia is in a position to increase its business with Brazil,India,China,South Africa, Middle east, etc and do so at a time that the US and Europe are not exactly at their fighting fittest financially speaking themselves.. and indeed they are already doing so and longterm, this is more likely to have a knock on effect to the dollar and its place as the global reserve/petro dollar...

Yeah it is all a game...

and I am pretty good on my history...  

tbh I am not sure on the no blood situation though.. desperation is never a good thing, I am not talking nuclear war, but maybe a few unwanted bangs in unwanted places...

and I am not sure that players will just do nothing... especially if the stick/noose they are being jabbed with/lassoed with is big enough/tight enough... desperation is never a good thing

You seem very sure of everything.. and good for you... I personally have never found that works so well, I wish I could share your optimism..

I am afraid though there will be blood...

by that I mean more blood...  (there has been a fair amount of lost souls in the past month alone, that a few months ago were pootling around kiev or amsterdam or KL etc without a care in the world,  lets not forget those poor unexpecting people.. nor for that matter the people in Syria, Iraq, rest of Ukraine etc) the game is not sanitised and is not in (full) control... I wish it were but it bloody isn't.


 

[Omikifuse]

Question: price will go below 500 next week    
yes    29 (47.5%)
no    19 (31.1%)
idk    13 (21.3%)
   
Total Voters: 61

Are you kidding me? You guys (most of you) think for real that price will go <$500 next week?

Where are bulls? What is happening to you?

I am very sure that price will stay >$500 for now.

We will see ...

Go below 500 for some time and lose the 500's and stabilish below the 500's are different things.

I think we'll see some below-500 quick dips next week, specially on weekend, so I was obligated to vote yes, even though I don't believe we will lose the 500's.

Not sure if OP meant that

[JayJuanGee]

Question: price will go below 500 next week    
yes    29 (47.5%)
no    19 (31.1%)
idk    13 (21.3%)
   
Total Voters: 61

Are you kidding me? You guys (most of you) think for real that price will go <$500 next week?

Where are bulls? What is happening to you?

I am very sure that price will stay >$500 for now.

We will see ...

 I take "next week" to mean anytime after midnight on Sunday, and currently we are hovering between $499 and $504.   I do NOT believe that it would be any kind of big shock or surprise that BTC prices would go below $500 next week, and even those BTC would NOT need to stay below $500 for anymore than a minute to cause the proposition to be true, no?  I just do NOT see what is so shocking about that? 

Surely, it is possible that prices will skyrocket on and after September 1... but currently, I am having my doubts.. maybe in a couple weeks? Who knows, exactly, when such skyrocketing will commence?  NONETHELESS, I do agree that the chances of skyrocketting BTC prices seem pretty high.. just a matter of when.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

Yeah it is all a game...

and I am pretty good on my history...  

tbh I am not sure on the no blood situation though.. desperation is never a good thing, I am not talking nuclear war, but maybe a few unwanted bangs in unwanted places...

and I am not sure that players will just do nothing... especially if the stick/noose they are being jabbed with/lassoed with is big enough/tight enough... desperation is never a good thing

You seem very sure of everything.. and good for you... I personally have never found that works so well, I wish I could share your optimism..

I am afraid though there will be blood...

by that I mean more blood...  (there has been a fair amount of lost souls in the past month alone, that a few months ago were pootling around kiev or amsterdam or KL etc without a care in the world,  lets not forget those poor unexpecting people.. nor for that matter the people in Syria, Iraq, rest of Ukraine etc) the game is not sanitised and is not in (full) control... I wish it were but is bloody isn't.

Nice discussion, my friend

Do not be afraid. The US/UK/Mexico/Canada/Japan/Australia planners are trying their best to scare their population, but nowadays with the internet it is quite hard to do so in a systemic way. They will fail in this regard.

There has been indeed a lot of blood to maintain this world-wide status quo. Better start to think of it as the past.
An economic world war has been played in the last decades. This war is economic.
After these events unfold, the (rest of the) world will be a better place, at least for a while. No WW3 on sight.

Lets not forget we share the same destiny on this giant rolling stone. This historic anomaly ends now.

[knight22]

Question: price will go below 500 next week    
yes    29 (47.5%)
no    19 (31.1%)
idk    13 (21.3%)
   
Total Voters: 61

Are you kidding me? You guys (most of you) think for real that price will go <$500 next week?

Where are bulls? What is happening to you?

I am very sure that price will stay >$500 for now.

We will see ...

[abercrombie]

Thor says to Bitstamp sub 500, "I say thee nay!"

[empowering]

Yeah it is all a game...

and I am pretty good on my history...  

tbh I am not sure on the no blood situation though.. desperation is never a good thing, I am not talking nuclear war, but maybe a few unwanted bangs in unwanted places...

and I am not sure that players will just do nothing... especially if the stick/noose they are being jabbed with/lassoed with is big enough/tight enough... desperation is never a good thing

You seem very sure of everything.. and good for you... I personally have never found that works so well, I wish I could share your optimism..

I am afraid though there will be blood...

by that I mean more blood...  (there has been a fair amount of lost souls in the past month alone, that a few months ago were pootling around kiev or amsterdam or KL etc without a care in the world,  lets not forget those poor unexpecting people.. nor for that matter the people in Syria, Iraq, rest of Ukraine etc) the game is not sanitised and is not in (full) control... I wish it were but is bloody isn't.

Nice discussion, my friend

Do not be afraid. The US/UK/Mexico/Canada/Japan/Australia planners are trying their best to scare their population, but nowadays with the internet it is quite hard to do so in a systemic way. They will fail in this regard.

There has been indeed a lot of blood to maintain this world-wide status quo. Better start to think of it as the past.
An economic world war has been played in the last decades. This war is economic.
After these events unfold, the (rest of the) world will be a better place, at least for a while. No WW3 on sight.

Lets not forget we share the same destiny on this giant rolling stone. This historic anomaly ends now.

Indeed nice discussion, my friend

I hope you are right...  and yeah WW3 not in sight.

I agree with the sentiment... but I still think that there is going to could  be a bang in a city in a place that is not expecting it at some point before all this is up...  I cannot see the players giving in so easily.

As for the longer term future... with that I DO share your optimism, the world is a changin' indeed and in the future I see some rapid evolution events.. I do still believe in people.. and I do think we are on a verge of global changes... I just hope they come in time, and with as little blood as possible..
i.e there is not another 9/11 style event in a major city that takes a lot of civilian lives... one last(?) big bang so to speak to kickstart this whole thing.. I hope you are right..and I am wrong and it never happens, and the consequences that follow are avoided.

Indeed this giant rolling stone we call home in this giant universe we hardly understand is our shared home...

Peace.
  

 

[Wary]

What is driving the market, right now. During the last downturn it was pretty clear that a mixture of fear and TA were spot on. However, TA doesn't seem to be so applicable outside of a rout. So, what the hell is really driving the price, here. Is there some bad news we don't know about because there seems to not only be good news coming out, but less than priced in good news.

What was "driving the market" between end of 2011 and end of 2012?



Mostly price stagnation, and when there's finally a decent rally (to $16), it gets dumped back to half of that. And keep in mind, at that point, the "ATH" was $32, by that time about 1.5 years in the past.

Sorry, but "stagnation" sounds more like description, rather than explanation What was driving the stagnation? Would it be too tinfoil to suggest that it was coins, stolen from MtGox, sold gradually?

Plus, while I don't have the tools to test this hypothesis, I consider it completely possible that a price suppression regimen is in place, by large accumulating entities (i.e. buying off-exchange at roughly market price, selling a portion on-exchange to suppress market price, repeat). I know it's what I would do if I would plan to buy in to the tune of 100k coins now.

I suspect it can't be done for long. OTC market, just like exchange market, has its own depth chart, it's just invisible. Big OTC purchases would drive OTC price up. OTC market would run out of cheap coins. And miners would start arbitraging: Sell 100K coins off-exchange to suppressors for $550, bought them back from them on-exchange for 500$, rinse, repeat

[hdbuck]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[nanobrain]

Adam, your best bet might to be to go here http://www.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/ to create a bitmap and go for one big enough to look good printed at t-shirt size. I could still do the SVG but this would let you get things exactly how you'd like them. (Though that wouldn't help you with the crown)

but i need the BTC crown.

You could cut it from the above bitmap, it just may not scale well. Though it is at least anti-aliased.

All the designs I have posted have been created in Illustrator so the vectors scale to whatever size (you can have it on the side of a building if you want). 

My husband is a graphic illustrator, so (again) if anyone has requests let me know.  I can supply the vectors for a small fee, if you prefer to use your own printing service.

nan
x

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[falllling]

It's starting to feel like we're gonna keep testing this level until it falls. Hate to say it. I wonder if this will be like "the last time we see 500s again" -- except in reverse? I guess we'll see who among the hodlers can really hodl.

Weekend is dump time.

I'm really surprised we still in the up-500 area. Was expecting dump to 490's or lower, so I guess the 500's are not weak.

we just did drop to $498 few hours ago and will drop into $4xx again soon

[vuduchyld]

400's again for some seconds when I was out, but still close to no volume.

And seriously ppl posting rocket pictures at this situation?

I'm always afraid when we're crossing such a psychological threshold, as I'm afraid some stop losses are being fired, that trigger some longs on margin to be liquidated. Things tend to go pretty ugly on Finex when that happens, you know

I understand the worry, but I don't think these things have lasting impact.  Hell, even if the price dropped to $200, it wouldn't change my 2020 outlook.  And I'll be hodling.