Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

i thought after 5K coins traded at this level the walls would get busted one way or another, but no... we've traded over 10K now and still no movement...

On Stamp? 10K?  In what time period?

(still catching up on posts)

the 12hour period we talked about.

In the 12hour period we were talking about the volume was about 3K on Stamp.

i count 4.2K


i think the point i made was proven right... walls are nothing compared to the actual vol that happens in front of them.

I was totting up across the 15 min chart on wisdom....still early here and a bad night's sleep ...doh.  But if you take the precise time on the hourly the volume goes down to under 4K.

Anyway, I still disagree with your initial statement that "depth is meaningless". 
Also worth noting that the wall at 515 increased from its initial size.

Either way, volume continues and the walls ain't moving brother

ya meaningless is not the right word, wtv, I just think no one should let walls push them around, they can disappear, move, get destroyed pretty fast.

[dannyspk]

Houbi.  

[JorgeStolfi]

1.  Assume a magical black box which, when the "press" button is pressed, prints out the *exact* result of an election.  Also assume that it is the definitive Black Box--while the result is [by definition] invariably correct, no one knows how it works.  It's a hypothetical, accept everything above as a given. What do you think the odds of such a thing becoming the accepted method of national elections?  

Well, that is almost a perfect description of the current Brazilian voting machine.  What it prints is the exact result of the election on that voting section, by definition... of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, who has the last word on the matter, as absurd as it may be.  It was instituted in 1996 with great fanfare, before the people could be made aware of the huge risk (malicious software stealing, say 10% of the votes on every one of the 400'000 voting sections).   The people is slowly getting wiser, but it may be another decade before the TSE is forced to replace it.
 

3.  Recounts.  There is little to suggest that a recount in conventional elections would produce results more accurate than the initial tallying.  But it makes people feel better.  Those tangible slips of paper, as ridiculous and flawed as they are, are used even when a purely digital apparatus recording choices directly from a keyboard to electronic storage (like a hugely-redundant RAID or something) would be cheaper, more convenient, and [provably] more reliable.  Go figure, but that's how it is.

They are not ridiculous at all.  With a purely digital system, a well-placed insider can steal votes on a national scale, without leaving any evidence.  With a paper-only system, ballot boxes can be stuffed or tampered locally while no one is looking.  With both, fraud becomes much, much harder: the fraudster would have to hack the software before the election, and then physically tamper with every ballot box after the election, replacing the paper ballots to exactly match the totals chosen by the software.   Thus the combination of the two systems is considerably more secure than each system could be by itself.

Ideally, every voting section should count the paper ballots immediately after the election closes.  If the totals don't match, there should be an investigation, but neither should be assumed to be more correct than the other.  If the differnce is considerd significant, the votes in that section should be invalidated and everybody who voted there should  vote again.  If that happens at more than a few sections, then a global digital fraud should be suspected and the entire election should be redone.

[jonoiv]

As there is a good chance many of the asics are already run at a loss.  

This is statement is unfounded at all. Electricity could be very cheap in some part of China

Maybe it's real but I don't buy it. Especailly as if "secret" in China, it would send out a massive heat signature and the authorities would think they are growing cannabis in those buildings.  

So what? The police will just find a computer farm instead of a cannabis farm.

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://www.360doc.com/relevant/212102353_more.shtml&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25E4%25B8%25AD%25E5%259C%258B%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258A%259B%25E6%2588%2590%25E6%259C%25AC%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26hs%3Dzmj%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official%26channel%3Drcs

1.00 USD    =    6.14322 CNY

1 CNY = 0.16 cent

very low cost electricy in china is about 0.5 CNY (8 cent per KW/h)

even if the price of EQ is $2000 per TH and it the most effienet machine @ 0.7 watts per GH then it's still run at a loss and at current rates would never break even.  Even if the EQ was free, and it's the most efficient Asic available it would still only be making $12 a month by December (at current difficulty increase).   Similar conditions (only more extreme) than October last year.  BTC is very undervalued.


As for the authorities, finding such an operation I suspect the tax man might be interested, I doubt they would just walk away after finding a 1/4 of a billion $ setup.  

Didn't you used to be a bear or at least frequently making bearish type comments?    Have you converted, or am I getting you mixed up with some other poster?

There was a point i thought it was game over for crypto.  around the time of the malleability and the gox balls up.  But I feel that it's moved on from there.  

I certainly not bearish at the moment.

[spooderman]

destroying the 10k wall after we broke $266 was amazing. It got eaten alive!

[fonzie]

Bitfinex will literally explode if we should break through 530$, their askside is paperthin, there are only about 1500BTC between 530$ and 580$ right now.

[illyiller]

if the walls were to market sell, the price would barely go down $10 lol , not exactly scary.

It's not the initial price drop that is scary. What is scary is what comes after. We are in a tight range, and once a market maker chooses the direction, the traders will follow.

i very much doubt the price would drop much, and it would take very little to buy it back up. Bitfinex ,for example, has more than enough bid depth to deal with it.

Those are some pretty weak assumptions. Depth means nothing. Market makers have been using the order books to manipulate traders forever. If you are a trader, you know that trading based on order book is a very dangerous practice.

Do you have any technical reasons why price can't drop much? Generally, once be break out of a trading range and do not immediately reenter it, orders fill in the gap. This means that if after an initial selloff, we could not retake the 500-505 level, and form a base there, that asks will fill in below.

[adamstgBit]

you guys watching this manipulation?

how far down you think he can take us?

[derpinheimer]

Honestly, with the fall on BFX not getting eaten or removed.. I'm more inclined to believe this is real. It still makes no sense though, as to why the bidwall is following the askwall down..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

no time to explain'

buy Buy BUY!!!!!!!!!

 

[JayJuanGee]

I think, Mr. JayJuanGee, that you are not a very careful reader.  I am not a perfect poster, but I am not guilty of the heinous crimes you accuse me of.  You should reread this discussion more attentively.

There you go again... giving assignments...   

At this point, I am of the sense that I have adequately read and/or researched in order to substantiate any points that I made in this post and in prior posts.

Thank you for replying with meaningful support for your position, instead of just snarky sarcasm  

No problem.  That's the least I can do.

[JorgeStolfi]

BTC is very undervalued.

Well, that is the bullish view of course. The other version is that the Bitcoin Network is very oversized.

Free market theory implies that the network should adjust itself so that mining is moderately profitable (in dollar terms).  It can easily become unprofitable after a price drop.

However, I suppose that even if mining is slightly unprofitabe, a large miner with several employees, equipment depreciation, and other fixed expenses may find that his losses will be smaller if he keeps mining.  He may also save the coins hoping for a price spike in the near future. (To tell whether mining is profitable or not, one should consider the price when the coins are sold, not when they are mined.)

Moreover, there may be miners who are not mining for profit, but are being subsidized by investors who aim to control the network or whatever.   In partiular, there are miners who get their equipment subsidized by "involuntary investors": namely, certain equipment makers who collected pre-order payments from thousands of clients, but instead of delivering the machines they used them in their own mining farms, "testing" it until it became obsolete.  You all know the names, right?

I have not seen any hint that the Chinese government objects to bitcoin mining or the manufacturers of mining equipment.  They have banned the internet sale of mining equipment inside China, but they must love those industries since coins and machines are mostly sold abroad, making China richer.

I suppose that the Coinsman trip report to a Chinese mining farm is perfectly legitimate, but for some reason it reminded me of another report that circulated on the internet in pre-historical times, maybe in the 1980s, about "the only remaining legal brothel in Texas".  The author described his visit in a couple of pages, all quite credible and matter-of-fact, with plenty of details --- including how to get there (off some highway, so many miles after somewhere).  I can imagine an endless stream of cars driving up and down that highway and asking for directions.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[spooderman]

[adamstgBit]

just so we are clear, when the bid wall moves down, your job is to look at the masives ask wall, sell all your coins, and move price down for Mr Manipulator



never mind there is more bids piling up then asks, in front of these wall , just look at the walls and capitulate

[bzzard]

[Sandia]

Bitfinex will literally explode if we should break through 530$, their askside is paperthin, there are only about 1500BTC between 530$ and 580$ right now.

Exactly.  Creating the walls took too many coins out of higher asks.
Break the wall and we cruise to upper 500's.
I took a small bite at 510, but no one followed.  At this point (505), if someone buys 250 coins to get the ball rolling, I am sure the wall will either will run or get eaten.  505 feels very cheap.

[damnek]

Bitfinex will literally explode if we should break through 530$, their askside is paperthin, there are only about 1500BTC between 530$ and 580$ right now.

Exactly.  Creating the walls took too many coins out of higher asks.
Break the wall and we cruise to upper 500's.
I took a small bite at 510, but no one followed.  At this point (505), if someone buys 250 coins to get the ball rolling, I am sure the wall will either will run or get eaten.  505 feels very cheap.

It does. It's just that noone seems to be interested in buying anymore, which makes me nervous.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation