Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jl2012]

Please, tell me an example where someone lost bitcoins from a properly secured wallet...

First you give me an example of hackers stealing credit card information from a properly secured server.

Seriously do you think Bitcoin is less secure than fiat?

Yes I do.  How do you propose to measure that?

I propose you to encrypt the fiat from your wallet: try to give a password to your $100 fiat paper, then you can try to do a brain wallet from them...

Stupid for stupid: I propose that you write a malware that can steal a 10$ bill from my pocket.

(And note the word MEASURE.)

Just for curiosity, if some day you use bitcoin to buy a car, how will you make sure that the address that you are sending the bitcoins to is indeed the car dealer's?  What will you do if the car dealer tells you that they did not receive any bitcoins, and that their payment address is not the one you used?

Do you know you can try that 'suspicious' address from your car dealer, by sending first a few shatoshis right? Just saying...

Sure.  You scan the QR code on the screen or catalog and send 1 satoshi there.

Then you check the blockchain and see that the satoshi was indeed sent to the address displayed on the screen.

You call the dealer, and Bill from Sales confirms that the satoshi was indeed deposited in their payment address.

You then send the other 999.99999999 BTC to the same address.  So you think.

You check the blockchain and find that the second transaction went to a DIFFERENT address!

You call the store, and Bill says that the second address is not theirs.   

Then what?

OR, TO KEEP THINGS SMPLE:

One day you find that all your bitcoins were stolen from all your paper wallets.

Then what?

(How could that happen? Hint: how did you create the paper wallets?)

One day you find that all your coins were stolen from all your wallets.

Then what?


I really can't image this kind of shit would come from a computer science professor. This is just a generic computer security problem, and is not specific to Bitcoin. If your computer is infected by malware, you will certainly lose money in many different ways. Your personal information will be used to borrow money. Your credit card number will be used to subscribe pron sites. Your files will be encrypted and you have to pay ransom. Your naked photos will be spread on Facebook.

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[Walsoraj]

Bitcoin isn't a purely speculative investment. The fundamentals include http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Informal_fallacies

When the fundamentals show signs of strengthening after a capitulation period, it's time to go all in as the greater fools are soon to arrive.

Well, it seems to be a consensus that the utilitarian demand (people buying BTC to pay for things) is still much less than the demands for day-trading and investment.  Like gold, but without the millennia of brainwashing of "gold is precious".

What signs of strengthening do you see?

I am half-joking. But my other posts are dead serious.  

[cbeast]

If you go to a bank and take out money to buy a car, then when you buy the car you find out the money is counterfeit? What do you do?

[jl2012]

If you go to a bank and take out money to buy a car, then when you buy the car you find out the money is counterfeit? What do you do?

This does happen. People draw money from ATM and find out the money is counterfeit. The bank would never admit their fault and it's hardly possible for the customer to prove it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I watched the video yesterday.  Yes, it is a very nice presentation.  

It's good that he avoids the exaggerated sales hype of most bitcoin enthusiasts.  However it seems he has been listening from one ear only, as he barely mentions some of the problems, or omits them altogether.  Like the impossibility of correcting mistakes or thefts.  

But, well, you can't expect an old man to properly understand such a new thing, can you?  

At one point he says that bitcoin is great because it has no rich bankers buying out government.  Is he aware of KnC buying their way into the Bitcoin Foundation, and "electing" their investor/friend Brock Pierce to the board of directors?

He is an old man but it is not right to say that he does not properly understand bitcoin. This guy gave a 1 hour plus lecture on bitcoin. Try doing that if one does not know about the subject.

If you think that you can offer a more balance view and you know more than him, try doing a video or at least write a paper to present your case? It would be more helpful than giving comments which are often IMHO distractions from the main subject.

Whether Jorge is a professor or NOT, he has already demonstrated in his nearly 4,000 posts here that he is more than capable of stringing along a series of irrelevant points and building upon them to the extent to which they begin to seem almost relevant.  In other words, I would NOT mix up quantity with quality, and Jorge surely seems to be capable of producing quantity.. He could probably carry out a 24 hour marathon series of presentation of irrelevance, just to prove the point that he is NOT at a loss of words and that he is UP to the challenge to show his presentation prowess (problem will be to recognize whether there is anything meaningful related to BTC contained therein).

I did some research and seems Jorge Stolfi is a University level professor and researcher in computer science.

He een has a wikipedia page for him:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jorge_Stolfi

Considering his account is not a fake one, would be interesting see his technical opinions about the bitcoin protocol, but he keeps acting like an academic version of the fallllling guy.

The reason that I referred to Jorge's "professor" status in a snarky way is because it does (and should) NOT matter whether one is a professor or a snotty nosed 5 year old in order to post decent ideas in this forum.  So it is an irrelevant distraction at best or an inappropriate attempt to appeal to authority in distracting people into giving him more credibility than he deserves.  In essence, it should NOT matter, too much, whether he is who he claims to be.

In other words, the ideas of his posts should stand on their own, without any need to appeal to authority, and surely some people build their credibility in these kinds of forums through their various past posts.

Don't get me wrong b/c I believe that every once in a while Jorge brings up good points and has fair and reasoned input... and other times Jorge, like any troll, can add some interesting entertainment value to the thread; however, his frequent misrepresentations (and sometimes appearing to be purposeful) actually undermines, in my thinking, the value of his other once in a while decent posts.  In this regard, sometimes we, as posters, become so Jorge distracted that we either fail or neglect to adequately address or even to recognize other areas in which we could be more meaningfully focusing our energies towards bitcoin evangelism, marketing and/or other improvements.

By the way, Evangelism means to spread the good word about bitcoin - which is NOT necessarily based on religious or cultist adherence, even though the word, evangelism, is frequently associated in such religious contexts.

[JayJuanGee]

It's a ponzi.
It's a pyramid.
There is no intrinsic value.
...
I should not go to bed now

 

we cannot go to bed

the next 8 hours are critical

 

I feel compelled to finish this sentence...... "the next 8 hours are critical"...... to bitcoin's rest of life... 

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

I may know what articles you are alluding to.  Or maybe I don't.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.

Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.

But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

It obviously has been, until now.  Will it continue to be? 

I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.

I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now.   I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.

For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China.  In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.

Some of the above comments are seeming somewhat bullish, especially coming from a bearish troll like you (even though you have been claiming neutrality).

For example, suggesting some day it will be zero and that the block chain will likely last for 100 years....   It is doubtful that anyone here is investing in BTC beyond 5 years, anyhow... surely we account for the long term prosperity and we account that we may need to reassess our BTC investment in a few years, but when push comes to shove, only a few people would just set any such volatile investment for more than 5 years without reassessing it from time to time.

After so many months of looking at bitcoin and making various analyses, you are likely converting bullish, but you do NOT want to admit it.  You likely understand and realize that as time passes, and the fundamentals do NOT really get undermined in any meaningful way, the odds become greater and greater and greater that the price is going to skyrocket upward rather than to crash downward.. and even you seem to be implying the possibility of 3x returns... which is fairly decent for any investment. 

Of course, the passage of time will tell the direction of BTC prices and whether Jorge ever buys a bitcoin.   

[JayJuanGee]

I'm betting on an altcoin eventually supplanting Bitcoin, possibly as soon as the next bubble phase. Ripple is a strong candidate.

Good luck to you and Mah87 as the pillar ripple holders - but remember prisoners' dilemna.   

[marcus_of_augustus]

the strange attractor at 1200 begins to work it's magic ...

[Davyd05]

China lead us to new found glory..I always trusted in you lol

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mooncake]

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

I may know what articles you are alluding to.  Or maybe I don't.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.

Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.

But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

It obviously has been, until now.  Will it continue to be? 

I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.

I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now.   I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.

For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China.  In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.

Some of the above comments are seeming somewhat bullish, especially coming from a bearish troll like you (even though you have been claiming neutrality).

For example, suggesting some day it will be zero and that the block chain will likely last for 100 years....   It is doubtful that anyone here is investing in BTC beyond 5 years, anyhow... surely we account for the long term prosperity and we account that we may need to reassess our BTC investment in a few years, but when push comes to shove, only a few people would just set any such volatile investment for more than 5 years without reassessing it from time to time.

After so many months of looking at bitcoin and making various analyses, you are likely converting bullish, but you do NOT want to admit it.  You likely understand and realize that as time passes, and the fundamentals do NOT really get undermined in any meaningful way, the odds become greater and greater and greater that the price is going to skyrocket upward rather than to crash downward.. and even you seem to be implying the possibility of 3x returns... which is fairly decent for any investment. 

Of course, the passage of time will tell the direction of BTC prices and whether Jorge ever buys a bitcoin.   

You are quite a match for Jorge. 

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin's attraction to informal fallacies reminds me of numerous pseudosciences. Some of the most insightful articles I've read about Bitcoin highlight the community's cultish attitude.

I may know what articles you are alluding to.  Or maybe I don't.

Jorge, you are looking at this in the wrong light. Cults and pseudosciences can persist through almost any obstacle. In fact, obstacles typically embolden the followers.

Thus, Bitcoin may survive and thrive for quite a while longer. For all the wrong reasons of course.

Good insight... I believe that there is a chance that the blockchain will be maintained for the next hundred years, if only as a fun challenge.

But, that doesn't mean it isn't a good investment. 

It obviously has been, until now.  Will it continue to be? 

I wouldn't say that it is a good investment, but it is certainly a great gambling game.

I believe that the price will drop to zero eventually, but won't dare to guess what it will be one hour from now.   I think I understand a bit about the market now, but not not enough to predict the price.

For instance, I bet that the Esteemed Colleague who predicted "10$ by mid 2014" was not quite aware of the situation in China.  In my view, the Chinese traders may continue their gambling for many months still, and the price may wander between 300$ (or less) to 1200$ (or more), depending mainly on their mood.

Some of the above comments are seeming somewhat bullish, especially coming from a bearish troll like you (even though you have been claiming neutrality).

For example, suggesting some day it will be zero and that the block chain will likely last for 100 years....   It is doubtful that anyone here is investing in BTC beyond 5 years, anyhow... surely we account for the long term prosperity and we account that we may need to reassess our BTC investment in a few years, but when push comes to shove, only a few people would just set any such volatile investment for more than 5 years without reassessing it from time to time.

After so many months of looking at bitcoin and making various analyses, you are likely converting bullish, but you do NOT want to admit it.  You likely understand and realize that as time passes, and the fundamentals do NOT really get undermined in any meaningful way, the odds become greater and greater and greater that the price is going to skyrocket upward rather than to crash downward.. and even you seem to be implying the possibility of 3x returns... which is fairly decent for any investment. 

Of course, the passage of time will tell the direction of BTC prices and whether Jorge ever buys a bitcoin.   

You are quite a match for Jorge. 

Jorge and me, we are internet frienemies...       

[ErisDiscordia]

guys, I am curious about something, I've noticed a huge amount of gambling games (dice games and wheel spining games) the huge amount of these sites suggest that Bitcoiners loves gambling !!?? any of you gamble here ?

I have three rules:
Among friends (no house)
Low stakes
Reasonable odds.

The first may be bent from time to time and the second two play off each other somewhat. I know some people apparently can make money from gambling (not dice and wheel games) but I have an idea of the kind of skill and dedication that would take and I'm not willing (or possibly even able) to do so.
 

these are the skills needed to be a successful professional poker player (in descending order of importance):

1. bankroll/money management (believe it or not, this one is the most important of all)
2. patience and discipline
3. emotional detachment from results - i.e. caring about whether you made a good play, not about what the particular result this time was
4. knowledge of probabilities (i.e. flopping a set, a flush draw arriving etc.) and hand ranges and how to exploit your opponents mistakes through this knowledge.
5. knowledge of human psychology and perception of so called "table dynamics"
 
I maintain that most people have no problem with point 4 and 5, but what would prevent them from becoming a successful poker pro are points 1 - 3.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kehtolo]

Bullish pennant there?

(i dunno, i just thought i'd add some wall observing)

[findftp]

Bullish pennant there?

(i dunno, i just thought i'd add some wall observing)

I don't see a wall

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation