Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

For whom or what? Bitcoin?

This being the bitcoin price movement tracking and discussion thread, that was my intention, yes.

Russia has gradually escalated the invasion of the Donbass to the point (estimated 3 to 5 thousand uniformed) where the Ukrainian government considers it an outright invasion.  European governments (except for Honnecker Merkel) agree. Europe has a backbone composed of over-cooked pasta, but they do remember Hitler, and the parallels to Putin are pervasive, profound, and indicative. I am wishing that I did not have so much New York travel planned, at this point:  A pre-emptive strike by Putin against the allied west is the likely end of any military escalation track.  I should acquire an off-shore life insurance policy in case my domestic one should prove unsuited to the circumstances of my death.

All of this, I consider bearish in the short-term, on risk-aversion, and bullish in the long-term on the fundamental technical capability of crypto to provide value storage and liquidity transfer when other systems break down.

Is this you or the Monkey talking? I do not agree tbh I do not see Putin=Hitler and I do not see a pre-emptive strike from Russia, certainly not a direct overt one.. jesus christ the implications of that are profound...  I can imagine a big bang somewhere.... followed by a game of whodunit... followed by more actions.... which could then lead to mayhem... but a direct overt attack , pre-emptive from Russia... phew... that is the stuff of nightmares... as it could not be a slight attack, it would have to be an end game attack, and well M.A.D comes to mind...  unthinkable... world as we know it done... dusted... game over, fuck Bitcoin if that happens...  unless it is so surgical that it would boggle the realms of what is possible..

Far more likely a catalyst is needed, or rather an instigation, and then what exactly would pre-emptive mean anymore? or do you propose that Ukraine is already that catalyst? or are you talking escalation of military build up from US in places like Poland etc antagonising Putin? and/or possible future NATO involvement?  kicking Russia out of G8 etc as ways of antagonising Putin into a pre-emptive attack?   or do you see a bit by bit escalation with "unintended" consequences? or do you really see Putin as having desires to rebuild the USSR, and as a force that needs to be stopped? as opposed to being antagonised into action?



(edit: yes I do not want to believe it could happen)

(edit: maybe I am blind though... I wonder what is your train of thought? do you really see it escalating to that point "absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor"  http://www.webcitation.org/5e3est5lT link to REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century )

or should that be "absent some another catastrophic and catalyzing event––like a new Pearl Harbor 9/11" ?

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[Richy_T]

my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

We're on ww4 now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tzupy]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

[JorgeStolfi]

Weak minds are incapable of vision, conviction.  Weak minds connect to weak hands.  Thus does wealth gravitate to those who are able to form sound conclusions and retain them in the face of an onslaught of deceit.  With strong hands we scale the mountains of adversity.

Good words.  But legend tells that a King once consulted a famous Oracle about waging war to a rival, and the Oracle had a vision of him destroying a great kingdom.  So the King went all confident to war, and the Oracle was soon proved right -- only with the wrong kingdom, of course.

[JayJuanGee]

my theory is that ww3 is short-term bearish, long-term bullish

For whom or what? Bitcoin?

This being the bitcoin price movement tracking and discussion thread, that was my intention, yes.

Russia has gradually escalated the invasion of the Donbass to the point (estimated 3 to 5 thousand uniformed) where the Ukrainian government considers it an outright invasion.  European governments (except for Honnecker Merkel) agree. Europe has a backbone composed of over-cooked pasta, but they do remember Hitler, and the parallels to Putin are pervasive, profound, and indicative. I am wishing that I did not have so much New York travel planned, at this point:  A pre-emptive strike by Putin against the allied west is the likely end of any military escalation track.  I should acquire an off-shore life insurance policy in case my domestic one should prove unsuited to the circumstances of my death.

All of this, I consider bearish in the short-term, on risk-aversion, and bullish in the long-term on the fundamental technical capability of crypto to provide value storage and liquidity transfer when other systems break down.

The more important question is what does monkey think?

[KFR]

The King Cnut legend is more apt I think.

[Adrian-x]

Wrong. The hashrate has decreased in the past ... if you cared to take a look and can read a plot.

I saw it stagnate at the last reward halving, maybe I did not look far back enough?

It self-regulate. If mining is unprofitable people stop mining, hash rate drop and mining became profitable again. If prices remain at these levels hash rate MUST drop, unless vast majority of hash power is controlled by entities that have no economic interests in mining per se.

So just jumped back into mining, here is a rough breakdown per TH/s:  (my electricity costs ($0.08/kWh)
Cost $2.18 per day; income @ $480/BTC = $8.80. (I.e. I am paid to heat my house this winter.)
So one of 3 things are going to happen next.

The pricey will fall to or below marginal cost of production.
Or
The hashing rate will increase until infrastructure grows to meet marginal cost of production.
Or
A combination of the above.

So no drop in hash predicted, and if the price drops to my marginal cost we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.

About your situation: if the hash rate keep going up then you will have to replace your hardware with a more efficient one in 3 months.
This is quite an addition to the cost of mining, that one must factor in. So, even if you have very cheap energy and very efficient hardware you still can't be on positive cash flow for the next 3 month, let alone recover the initial investment in the hardware. Correct?

Profit margin goes down (I will likely get a ROI in bitcoin if difficulty increase at 15-20% per step) what happens all depends on price.  The bottom line is I like being warm in winter so I'm committed to consuming the energy. This business case is short term the long term is support capability for the network.

All I'm saying is at this point in time there is fat in the system and and that invites competition, and spending some BTC, and it's going to come from price speculators or infrastructure speculators, as a miner it's win win if you can hold and you want to be warm  

It's going to be interesting if I was a master manipulator I'd probably push the price down squeeze mining infrastructure and force the next level of productivity before stimulating a boom.

[iram3130]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

Agree, mostly think because they don't want to think it will ever happen.
Because they invested so much or living easily because of Bitcoin.

[Chef Ramsay]

Very much enjoying the current low prices and the fact that this wasn't just a flasher so there's ample of time to get in on it.

[hmmkay]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

Agree, mostly think because they don't want to think it will ever happen.
Because they invested so much or living easily because of Bitcoin.

I wouldn't trust Mr. Hearn.
For one calling malleability a huge fragility is bs.
That was more Karpeles argument to move attention away from the horrible way he ran his exchange.

[raid_n]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

I really don't know what to think about Mike Hearn.
Clearly his whitelist/blacklist agenda is so contrary to what bitcoin was intended for I don't feel confident in having any trust in what he is saying.


On the other hand he has a strong point that from a software perspective the protocol needs a lot more attention given what is at stake.

[Adrian-x]

So just jumped back into mining, here is a rough breakdown per TH/s:  (my electricity costs ($0.08/kWh)
Cost $2.18 per day; income @ $480/BTC = $8.80. (I.e. I am paid to heat my house this winter.)

Does that cost include the hardware cost?  (I note that 365.25*(8.80 - 2.18) = 2418 $/year/TH/s, correct?)

So no drop in hash predicted, and if the price drops to my marginal cost we may see old hardware from mining farmers go offline, which will be good for decentralization.

Why? I would think that the bigger farms are able to keep their equipment more up-to-date than small miners, and threfore have better efficiency.  Is it the other way around?

No the hardware cost 1 BTC per 1TH/s over the counter as of today but I bought it with BTC I mined when difficulty was last in decline (the end of 2011) so hardware cost feels like free.

I haven't done the hard maths but my take is Gen3 hardware efficiency is an order of magnitude more efficient than gen2. If price falls the big gen 2 mining farmers will be squeezed for profit and will have to sink new capital so in effect a fork in the road when it comes to a business plan. New growth so to speak old trees in the forest fall for new growth.

If price increase they keep gen2 hardware active. And there business grows. Old growth trees get bigger.

I'm thinking there is an opportunity for new growth, with retail gen 3 hardware, if price keeps falling, and more old growth if the difficulty trend continues, with price increasing, But price is falling and it could go below marginal cost for big farms, so only new hardware will be profitable.

[findftp]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

OMG SELL SELL SSSSHHHHHEEEEELLLLLL11111!

[samsonn25]

No hardware is profitable now in mining, unless you can get it for FREE.  Not even Gen 3 hardware can ROI 35-40% back of hardware cost when they come out.   Or you have no cost for electricity and can get hardware at big discount because the capital investment for the equipment will never mine it back.

[DubFX]

No hardware is profitable now in mining, unless you can get it for FREE.  Not even Gen 3 hardware can ROI 35-40% back of hardware cost when they come out.   Or you have no cost for electricity and can get hardware at big discount because the capital investment for the equipment will never mine it back.

You actually can make ROI if you have solar panels or some other free source of eletricity so you can run your miners 24/7 for free. And with selling mining contract you could make even more if you would count the cost of electricity and make the customer pay for it.

[abercrombie]

No hardware is profitable now in mining, unless you can get it for FREE.  Not even Gen 3 hardware can ROI 35-40% back of hardware cost when they come out.   Or you have no cost for electricity and can get hardware at big discount because the capital investment for the equipment will never mine it back.

You actually can make ROI if you have solar panels or some other free source of eletricity so you can run your miners 24/7 for free. And with selling mining contract you could make even more if you would count the cost of electricity and make the customer pay for it.

Is Crypto done??   

[roslinpl]

Some people think Bitcoin is indestructible, when it is not. In fact, it is very fragile.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/news/bitcoin-really-fragile-bitcoin-core-developer-mike-hearn/2014/09/01

OMG SELL SELL SSSSHHHHHEEEEELLLLLL11111!

You mean that she sell sea shells on a sea shore?

I would suggest to buy or hodl.

Sell only if you need urgent cash.

Regards.

[HarHarHar9965]

The infamous DanV of Tradingview recently drew a Bitfinex chart where he predicted $100~ ... I think that is his lowest prediction yet. It's not Prof. Bitcorn level apocalypse, but it's getting there. Too bad I didn't save the link....

I am pretty bearish myself at the moment, but $100 sounds like total bullshit.

You gotta take into account this: "who is gonna SELL his BTCs for 300$ - $200 - 100$"?   Will there still be more people selling BTC for that kinda cheap price than people wanting to buy at that price?

I highly doubt it.

Well, I suppose in 2011 it went from $32 to $2. I know, I know, different time, different fundamentals. But while things are looking good for the fundamentals of BTC infrastructure (start-ups, merchants, funds), short/mid term price may be different entirely.

Hypothetical: How do you think people will feel if we break below $260s? That never happened before (breaking below previous ATH). If people start thinking "bitcoin is dead" for real, you might be surprised what they are willing to sell for.

Yeah but $32 was the peak of the bubble and $2 was the crash.  Kinda like $1200 and $340 in this cycle.

I see what you mean, not saying it cannot happen (anything can happen with BTC   ) i just have my serious doubts.

Do you see what you did there, though? You straight up assumed that $340 was already the bottom. Why? We're still in steep downtrends on the daily and weekly charts. So the point still stands, IMO.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation