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Question: What happens first:
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<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26403930 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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September 01, 2014, 11:07:56 AM

Thought we might see a short squeeze tonight.... started off swiftly but it seems we got rejected at short term (1hr) EMAs.... bears too strong here? Maybe we need more down first before a proper bounce.
Problem is not too strong bears, problem is that there are no bulls left basically lol


I just see weaker and weaker little bounces that are probably more like shorters taking profit than anything...




no worry, soon $400 will be the new $680 ATH
everyone would be happy if we can even touch it or get closer to it ever again after we drop to $3xx or $2xx

What about the previous $1,163 ATH?  Are you skipping over that one for convenience sake, or did you actually forget about it, since such prior ATH preceded your birth at bitcointalk?
falllling
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September 01, 2014, 11:17:10 AM

The infamous DanV of Tradingview recently drew a Bitfinex chart where he predicted $100~ ... I think that is his lowest prediction yet. It's not Prof. Bitcorn level apocalypse, but it's getting there. Too bad I didn't save the link....
I am pretty bearish myself at the moment, but $100 sounds like total bullshit.

You gotta take into account this: "who is gonna SELL his BTCs for 300$ - $200 - 100$"?   Will there still be more people selling BTC for that kinda cheap price than people wanting to buy at that price?

I highly doubt it.

Well, I suppose in 2011 it went from $32 to $2. I know, I know, different time, different fundamentals. But while things are looking good for the fundamentals of BTC infrastructure (start-ups, merchants, funds), short/mid term price may be different entirely.

Hypothetical: How do you think people will feel if we break below $260s? That never happened before (breaking below previous ATH). If people start thinking "bitcoin is dead" for real, you might be surprised what they are willing to sell for.

worse case possible
falllling
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September 01, 2014, 11:18:40 AM

The infamous DanV of Tradingview recently drew a Bitfinex chart where he predicted $100~ ... I think that is his lowest prediction yet. It's not Prof. Bitcorn level apocalypse, but it's getting there. Too bad I didn't save the link....
I am pretty bearish myself at the moment, but $100 sounds like total bullshit.

You gotta take into account this: "who is gonna SELL his BTCs for 300$ - $200 - 100$"?   Will there still be more people selling BTC for that kinda cheap price than people wanting to buy at that price?

I highly doubt it.

Well, I suppose in 2011 it went from $32 to $2. I know, I know, different time, different fundamentals. But while things are looking good for the fundamentals of BTC infrastructure (start-ups, merchants, funds), short/mid term price may be different entirely.

Hypothetical: How do you think people will feel if we break below $260s? That never happened before (breaking below previous ATH). If people start thinking "bitcoin is dead" for real, you might be surprised what they are willing to sell for.
Yeah but $32 was the peak of the bubble and $2 was the crash.  Kinda like $1200 and $340 in this cycle.

I see what you mean, not saying it cannot happen (anything can happen with BTC   Grin) i just have my serious doubts.

no, kinda like $1200 to $75, are we at $75 yet? no, so...
falllling
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September 01, 2014, 11:20:36 AM

Thought we might see a short squeeze tonight.... started off swiftly but it seems we got rejected at short term (1hr) EMAs.... bears too strong here? Maybe we need more down first before a proper bounce.
Problem is not too strong bears, problem is that there are no bulls left basically lol


I just see weaker and weaker little bounces that are probably more like shorters taking profit than anything...




no worry, soon $400 will be the new $680 ATH
everyone would be happy if we can even touch it or get closer to it ever again after we drop to $3xx or $2xx

What about the previous $1,163 ATH?  Are you skipping over that one for convenience sake, or did you actually forget about it, since such prior ATH preceded your birth at bitcointalk?

$1000 bubble burst long time ago, forget about it, bitcoin will never get close to it again
let's face the new ATH, $680, oh no $480 instead
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September 01, 2014, 11:27:06 AM

 Grin
fallling will you pm me when (and if) you turn bullish?
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September 01, 2014, 11:30:21 AM


The classic posting style of JayJuanGee style of just DROPPING in the caps lock... BAM


Can I ask you something? I am and have been for quite some time, actually been dying to know where you come from ? where are you based and if you do not mind me asking what is your heritage? because I have been trying to figure it, and get an image of you in my mind , and I just cannot figure it...  for example... I am born and raised in the UK , but my parents are Irish and Spanish and I am over somewhere around 40. I am now based in various places UK being one of them.

Tell me to mind my own business of course.. but I am just CURIOUS.

By the way, thanks for asking.

I am NOT really sure how much I should say because of course this is an anonymous forum, and I strive to maintain some of that privacy/anonymity for myself...

Sure there may be reasons and even circumstances in which maintaining a completely open profile would be tolerable, and there are several examples of members like that within the forum (even though it seems like the vast majority are anonymous).

I will just describe a general background of my experiences in order to give you some ideas, and hopefully that will sufficiently respond to your curiosity.

I grew up in the mid-western united states, and then went into the military after high school and was stationed in various parts of the USA and even stationed in Europe shortly (and traveled a little bit around europe).  I am in my late 40s.  I got out of the military and went to college on the west coast of usa and to grad school on the east coast.  Between college and grad school, I taught English in Korea and I had learned Spanish while in college (and used Spanish somewhat in my work after college).

After college I have worked in various kinds of professional positions mostly in the west coast usa, but some of my work had caused me to travel.. mostly in the USA.  Ever since graduating from highschool,  I have invested in various kinds of ways and engaged in various forms of business ventures.  I have had some workaholic tendencies, but I have had various hobbies as well that helped to inform my activities and contribute to my understanding of social interactions and relationships.  Probably, ever since I began attending college and thereafter,  I have tended to write quite a lot.  

In the last year or so, I have been sort of attempting to transition into a state in which I will NOT have to work too much more or at least attempt to be more location independent in my working activities and to increase my travels.. though I continue to have ongoing business obligations that are tying me down somewhat more than I wished and making a complete location independent existence more difficult to transition into.  

I am considering various ways to potentially liquidate portions of my current business obligations or at least potentially to contract out additional portions of my current business obligations in order that my business obligations do NOT cause me to have to be as involved... to work less and to play more.  There remains some uncertainties and ongoing fluctuation in my life regarding some of those transitions and the ongoing requirements that I am going to have in connection with my various business-related obligations.

My involvement in BTC came about partly b/c I want to create greater diversification of my assets and my income - away from the dollar, and also to potentially be able to use BTC in my potential upcoming travels.



cool thanks for taking the time to answer  Smiley
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September 01, 2014, 11:32:32 AM

For those that still have not seen this

Some infos I have gathered regarding: GABI (Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund) for anyone that may not have seen it.


ANNOUNCEMENT FROM JERSEY GOV

http://www.gov.je/News/2014/Pages/CryptoCurrency.aspx

=

The Assistant Chief Minister with responsibility for financial services, Senator Philip Ozouf, has commented on the announcement by a Jersey-based investment management company that it has received approval to launch a Jersey-regulated Bitcoin investment fund.
Senator Ozouf's statement

Senator Ozouf said "This is believed to be the first regulated Bitcoin fund in operation and Jersey is pleased to be paving the way. Fintech, which broadly defines the emerging digital industry in finance, is a sector that I believe holds significant opportunities for Jersey. In April this year, when I presented the Government’s policy framework for the future of our financial services industry, I made it clear that innovation will be central to Jersey’s future prosperity. I also emphasised that Government will offer its full support for innovative measures undertaken by industry and the regulator.

“I therefore welcome the decision of the Jersey Financial Services Commission to approve the launch of the Island’s first regulated Bitcoin fund. We are working closely with the Commission, industry and Digital Jersey to help develop the Island as a natural hub for fintech business. We are committed to maximising the benefits and opportunities of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in a well-regulated environment.”
Cryptocurrency overview

Cryptocurrencies are fundamentally a software code or chain of digital signatures that define units of value. No transfer of any physical money or digital file takes place at the point of transaction as with traditional core currency transactions.

The most notable difference between crypto currencies and core currencies is that no group or individual may accelerate, stunt or in any other way significantly moderate (or abuse) the production of money. Most crypto currencies are designed to gradually introduce new units of currency, placing an ultimate cap on the total amount of currency that will ever be in circulation. This is done both to mimic the scarcity (and value) of precious metals and to avoid hyperinflation.

One of the commonly known cryptocurrencies is ‘Bitcoin’. Bitcoins are created as a reward for payment processing work in which users offer their computing power to verify and record payments into the public ledger. Called mining, individuals or companies engage in this activity in exchange for transaction fees and newly created Bitcoins. Bitcoins are now actively obtained in exchange for core money, products, and services.

The popularity of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has increased significantly as a tool of trade and more recently as an asset class for expert investors.
Regulation

Jersey has consistently taken a proactive approach in advancing the worldwide fight against money laundering and financing of terrorism. In the area of cryptocurrencies, this approach will not change. Jersey is committed to introducing an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime in this area.

Given that the use of cryptocurrencies has evolved at such a rapid pace, and that the user and business acceptance is sharply growing, the Government and the Jersey Financial Services Commission are of the view that an in-depth analysis of the risks posed by crypto-currency needs to be carried out before an appropriate and proportionate anti-money laundering regime can be introduced.

The analysis of the risks associated with crypto-currency is underway and it is anticipated that the Financial Crime Strategy Group, who make recommendations to the Government on financial crime matters, will be in a position to advise Ministers by the end of 2014.
Tax implications

Any business or individual receiving an income from any activity involving Bitcoin and other similar cryptocurrencies will need to consider the income tax and GST implications.

In general terms, the Comptroller of Taxes has issued the following guidance

    the profits and losses of a business entering into transactions involving cryptocurrencies would be reflected in the accounts and would be taxable under normal Jersey income tax provisions relating to foreign exchange.
    with regard to GST, the value of the supply of goods or services on which GST is due will be the sterling value of the cryptocurrency at the point the transaction takes place.

Local cryptocurrency use

The use of cryptocurrencies locally is gathering momentum with a growing number of retailers currently accepting payment in Bitcoin. As such, Trading Standards have published new guidance for retailers accepting cryptocurrencies for consumer transactions.


(Global Advisors Jersey Limited)  

Daniel Masters
(http://www.linkedin.com/pub/daniel-masters/8/939/197)

Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager
Director of Trading & Execution
Daniel Masters started out in 1985 at Royal Dutch/Shell, where he was responsible for managing a portfolio of North Sea Crude. Moving to The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. in 1987, he pioneered the firm’s entrance into the electricity markets. He structured groundbreaking natural gas deals and was an original participant in the “Contract for Difference” (CFD) market for physical oil in Europe. J.P. Morgan hired him in 1993 to add trading expertise to its array of financial capabilities. Based on Danny’s success in establishing a proprietary trading program, Morgan promoted him to head its global energy trading business in 1997.


Russell Newton
(uk.linkedin.com/pub/rus-newton/0/419/371)

Co-Principal and Portfolio Manager
Director of Systematic Model Research & Development
Russell Newton began his career as a crude oil trader for Royal Dutch/Shell in 1986. As head of Shell’s futures and forwards trading, he was one of the original developers of pricing models for the Brent CFD market. Rus also worked for The Phibro Energy Division of Salomon, Inc. and Rhein Oel Limited before joining J.P. Morgan in 1993. At Morgan, he served as global commodities strategist, covering base and precious metals as well as energy. He developed a new derivative trade structures and new techniques for researching, analyzing and modeling markets.


J Mognetti
(uk.linkedin.com/in/jmmognetti)

Mr Mognetti is a director and shareholder of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited. Mr. Mognetti is registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a Principal, an Associated Person , and a National Futures Association (NFA) associated member of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited and is also approved as a Key Person of Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited by the Jersey Financial Services Commission (JFSC).


Global Investment Bitcoin Investment Fund
Ground Floor Liberation House Castle Street St Helier Jersey JE2 3AT
http://www.globaladvisors.co.uk/

The Company seeks to achieve capital appreciation through direct and indirect exposure to Bitcoins and Bitcoin related markets.

If profitable opportunities arise, the Company will also invest in certain other commodity markets, including precious metals, oil and other forms of money (such as FX) as required to meet its investment goals whilst enhancing the Company’s ability to manage its liquidity requirements



Intro video if you have not seen it = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OMN03xti4pk


Partners

Carey Olsen as legal advisers led by James Mulholland -
http://www.careyolsen.com/locations/jersey/

Moore Management as fund administrator
http://www.mooremanagement.com/

Netagio and Elliptic as providers of custody services to strengthen and enhance our fund offering.
https://secure.netagio.com/  Netagio. The first British Bitcoin, gold & sterling exchange.
+
https://www.elliptic.co/



Company formation and registration details

https://www.jerseyfsc.org/registry/documentsearch/NameDetail.aspx?Id=297268


The fund will operate within the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998 as an Expert Fund.

of which you can find a copy here =  http://www.jerseyfsc.org/pdf/schedule_2_codes_for_certified_funds_august_2011.pdf






........Interestingly enough the company that I used to work for who are based in Jersey, who have since merged and then morphed and changed names several times.. was most likely involved in advising the government (and others) in writing the Collective Investment Funds (Jersey) Law 1998,  and I also worked at the same company as one of the other members of the team at GABI ,one of the non exec directors, albeit I never met the guy from memory.... ..small world  Wink

Edit: actually the same company also advised quite a few other governments too over the years in various aspects of Taxation law and Financial and International Finance law/International law and the like,  they get around, highly respected in their field and everything they touched was solid as a rock

....huh really small world...  looking around I see 6 or 7 people from one company I worked for (Jersey/London based) are now working in and with Bitcoin related businesses, even one guy working for one of the GABI partners.  



falllling
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September 01, 2014, 11:36:16 AM

Grin
fallling will you pm me when (and if) you turn bullish?

Sad it will likely never happen, bitcoin is on it's way to the final capitulation

it's just going to drop back to where it came from and end at there. of cause there would be some dead cat bounces before each new low for example $490 before sub $450 who knows
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September 01, 2014, 11:59:18 AM


Explanation
findftp
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September 01, 2014, 12:16:32 PM

Grin
fallling will you pm me when (and if) you turn bullish?

Sad it will likely never happen, bitcoin is on it's way to the final capitulation

it's just going to drop back to where it came from and end at there. of cause there would be some dead cat bounces before each new low for example $490 before sub $450 who knows

And this is exactly why I am in Bitcoin,.. I rather spend my time buying bitcoins and lurking on this forum to see these kind of messages than to buy tickets in dollars for a stand up comedian show.

Thanks for the laugh falllling!
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September 01, 2014, 12:17:29 PM

Well I was starting to draw a train for our rally but I will wait with uploading till next week Smiley

But as for now from few hours it is looking much better than 10h ago which is promising Smiley

In that case maybe just a little train for you Smiley


The bottom of the picture is missing.
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September 01, 2014, 12:27:23 PM

looks like i am a lucky weak hand...lol
wachtwoord
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September 01, 2014, 12:29:29 PM

looks like i am a lucky weak hand...lol

You're buying back then?
razorramon
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September 01, 2014, 12:36:08 PM

looks like i am a lucky weak hand...lol

You're buying back then?

i don't think so
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September 01, 2014, 12:53:32 PM

looks like i am a lucky weak hand...lol

You're buying back then?

i don't think so

Then you're not a lucky weak hand Sad
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September 01, 2014, 12:56:58 PM

We will see when you lost a few thousand dollars before you realize that you lived in the bubble and didn't see the downfall coming

sometimes superior things just don't make it

maybe in a couple of years a bitcoin 3.0 will make it...proprietary...from the government
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September 01, 2014, 12:59:18 PM


Explanation
maker88
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September 01, 2014, 01:04:05 PM


OpenBazaar will be like a Silk Road that no one can shut down.


I thought that silk road was already like a silk road that could NOT be shut down.

you mean SILKROAD ver 2.0

i guess you guys are forgetting there are more than 20 dark markets that popped up after silk road, none of them can be shut down unless the owner is caught at a library logged into the administrator page of the site like ross was.
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September 01, 2014, 01:05:22 PM

We will see when you lost a few thousand dollars before you realize that you lived in the bubble and didn't see the downfall coming

sometimes superior things just don't make it

maybe in a couple of years a bitcoin 3.0 will make it...proprietary...from the government

...is this razor ramon from worcester?
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September 01, 2014, 01:16:15 PM

473 . CodeRed!SELLSELLSELL

Why in the hell would you sell at 473?

You're supposed to BUY low and sell high!

Edit: never mind...I think I missed the sarcasm.  My sarcasm meter wasn't properly calibrated.
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