Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Not nuclear winter I hope.

[thefunkybits]

The sentiment right now seems different than the last time we were on "the edge of a cliff"

1. Most people dont seem to be nervous of a dip (last time i definitely was)

2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)

3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

[JimboToronto]

TROLL QUOTE DENIED

However wanted to address his comment...not quite sure how you equate price to being the defining factor of bitcoin's growth

I think it has to do with thinking of Bitcoin primarily as some kind of investment.

That's a trap into which many noobs and ill-informed people fall.

I do NOT see anything wrong with thinking about bitcoin as an investment, so long as the assets of the "investor" are sufficiently diversified and the "investor" maintains some kind of strategy that accounts for the probable ongoing volatility factors.

The acquisition of any asset is an investment  and carries some risk. Bitcoin is not just an investment vehicle like bonds or shares in companies though. Sometimes people forget that it's a lot more.

[vuduchyld]

The owner of a properly positioned portfolio shouldn't much care where the price goes, especially in the short term. Only the best or luckiest day traders can use this market as a reliable source of income. For most of us, it is a form of investment or savings.  Leverage really takes away from your ability to wait out the fluctuations, so it should be used mostly in those rare circumstances where price have moved very far and rapidly out of the trading range and a partial snap-back is almost inevitable.

If you have an outside source of income and a positive cash flow, then almost anytime is a good time to buy. It's just a question of how much. Everyone wants to maximize our return on investment, but being too greedy or stingy can cause you to miss out on opportunities. This downward momentum we are currently experiencing shouldn't bother long term holders much because it is an opportunity to distribute coins to either more people (which will widen the user base) or smarter people (which will reduce volatility and make bitcoin more useful for transactions). In either case, it's good for the long term growth of the Bitcoin economy.

ding ding ding!  winner!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Adrian-x]

ripple is the future, not bitcoin, you're all fools !!!

Glad to see you're well.
I'll never forget the crash after your last recommendation.
What do you say to the total inflation in ripple (fixed supply untill it's not)

Now trading at $0.005. How much was it trading before total inflation?
Just wanted to know. Thanks

Ripple was dead to me when I understood it is centralized ( I can use it to buy Bitcoin and that's about it.)

I don't follow the price so I can't tell you. But this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hinsnnc0VBk has some date you can look it up.

This just confirmed why centralization is problematic.

[adamstgBit]

ripple is the future, not bitcoin, you're all fools !!!

Glad to see you're well.
I'll never forget the crash after your last recommendation.
What do you say to the total inflation in ripple (fixed supply untill it's not)

Now trading at $0.005. How much was it trading before total inflation?
Just wanted to know. Thanks

Ripple was dead to me when I understood it is centralized ( I can use it to buy Bitcoin and that's about it.)

I don't follow the price so I can't tell you. But this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hinsnnc0VBk has some date you can look it up.

lmao ripple is up some % since the superHyperMassInflation

mah87 can i borrow some of your XRP? you should sell man... damn.

[Newbie1022]

I don't know anyone who owns a single satoshi anymore.  All 5 of my friends have sold and won't be back when they saw they were down $60-120/coin, somewhere around $50k in investors.  The 2 guys who used to talk to me about btc think I am trying to scam them.  My neighbor used btc to get a discount on a new laptop; he bought them literally at the last possible second so that they price would not drop during the time that they were in his address.

There are 3 main classes of btc owners, IMO:
- the majority with less than 5 coins
- the middle with 5-300 coins
- the bigger guys

These drops are not about btc value.  They are not about price discovery.  It has nothing to do with TA.  It is just the big guys taking money from the smaller guys.  I have spent 7 months staring at the charts and watching buy/sells scroll buy.  Every drop is started by 200, 250, 300, 350 coins market sells, followed by more large sells, then the rest with 1-10 coins trying frantically not to lose money (which of course the always do).  The big guys have their buy orders a few percent off the top, buy back in.  Rinse and repeat day after day, as the price drops day after day, so the big guys can make their easy profits.  And then defend the 7k dump on Bitfinex as natural market movement.  And defend the big dump on BTC-e a few days later as a natural market movement.  And complain that people refuse to buy the price up for your next dump.

We are not in a bear market.  We are in a market where the big guys make more money on dumps than price increases.  And dumps are SO much easier.

The smug big guys in this thread like to say we are in accumulation phase.  No, we aren't.  We are in the "take the newbies' money" stage.  They are also the guys who encourage trading, instead of holding.  See, they don't make money from you when you only hold your coins, they need you on an exchange.  Goldman, etc., are replaced by anyone who holds 1 or 2k coins and can initiate dumps or walls.

Some of the big guys here are talking about $300 coins.  Good luck with that, I hope you achieve it.  Everyone except you will have sold and left btc.  Everyone else will have lost half their money and left the technology for good.  You will likely get $50, $25, $10, $1 coins, too.  A Pyrrhic victory.

This short term thinking drives the price down, hinders new adoption, and drives out anyone who has adopted recently.  Remember that when you see the charts that say btc adoption has stagnated: why would the average person hold coins that have dropped over 20% in the last 2 months and 60% in 9 months, for exactly no reason?  Why would a newbie even CONSIDER buying btc when he is guaranteed to lose money?

I am thinking about dropping out of trading myself.  I will keep a percentage of my coins in a cold wallet, sell the rest.  This crap happening in the market is unbearable.  I would rather deal with wallet street than bitcoin markets.

And no, I haven't lost coins trading.  That is only because my trades rarely last over an hour.

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

[JayJuanGee]

TROLL QUOTE DENIED

However wanted to address his comment...not quite sure how you equate price to being the defining factor of bitcoin's growth

I think it has to do with thinking of Bitcoin primarily as some kind of investment.

That's a trap into which many noobs and ill-informed people fall.

I do NOT see anything wrong with thinking about bitcoin as an investment, so long as the assets of the "investor" are sufficiently diversified and the "investor" maintains some kind of strategy that accounts for the probable ongoing volatility factors.

The acquisition of any asset is an investment  and carries some risk. Bitcoin is not just an investment vehicle like bonds or shares in companies though. Sometimes people forget that it's a lot more.

Well, bitcoin the network and bitcoin the currency can be fairly complicated technologically and even the extent to which it is considered to be a paradigm shift and how these various aspects of bitcoin may play out in the coming years.

Accordingly, you cannot really stop people from coming to varying conclusions about how to view bitcoin and/or how to participate in bitcoin through ways in which bitcoin makes sense and/or is comfortable to them.  Even though bitcoin has properties that are broader than bonds and/or company stocks and also bitcoin may NOT fit well into those kinds of categories, people still may choose to invest into bitcoin and to conceptualize bitcoin as if it were to fit in one of those kinds of investment categories.   You cannot really stop people from doing that, and really it does NOT hurt people (nor bitcoin) to have people with these kinds of conceptions (or misconceptions from your apparent point of view).

Probably as bitcoin becomes more popular and more widely adopted, some of these aspects and perceptions and perspectives are going to evolve; however, I doubt that you are ever going to have people who are truly uniformly informed about what is bitcoin.. ...   Actually some people may buy Lamborghinis b/c they may be a good investment /  storage of value from their perspective... and there is more to a Lamborghini than its storage of value.

[JorgeStolfi]

2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)
3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

Well, if one intends to sell, one should first tell everybody "trust me, now it is a good time to buy and hold". 

People are probably confident that the price will not go below 450$ (there is some justification for that hope), and eventually will rise again. 

[adamstgBit]

short are up again today.

[i dig bitcoins]

That's a large ichimoku cloud to break through. Hope it can be done.

[nanobrain]

...
Solar panels are devices with ROI - after a certain time you will have profit, though we are talking about years.
...

I suppose if you sell electricity at the couture prices to PETA/SCRYPT bagholders you would.  Otherwise, not so much.
That's why real power companies don't run solar cells unless they're subsidized

Yeah, but i was talking about private usage.
The free generating of electricity will save you money which you would have to pay for the same else.

Why energy companies dont use it is indeed like you say. Other forms of energy are just cheaper but are also extremly more harmful to the enviroment

Meh.  Manufacture of solar panels creates plenty of pollution (here's a start), panels have a limited lifespan, require upkeep/maintenance, and, while "going solar" requires piggybacking onto conventional commercial power grid (or polluting moar by having to buy huge banks of toxic batteries), conventional power grids can do just fine without solar.
Greenwashing is so early '00.

Disagree

1.  Maybe manufacturers in your country but some countries have better environmental regulations -- don't tar everyone with the same brush.

2. Limited lifespan -- nothing lasts forever but  quality panels last up to 20 years

3.  Up keep and maintenance -- hardly any is required.  You don't even have to wash the things.

4.  Going ongrid is what its all about.  I'd have thought in an age of 'crowdsourcing' you might appreciate the beauty of this.  Meanwhile battery technology is one of the most exciting and cutting edge areas of science and you will see some amazing breakthoughs in terms of size, storage and recharge times in the next few years.  It's worth noting that some areas of battery development are actually being held back by US govt and industry due to vested interests.

5.  Any generation system that relies heavily on fossil fuels is not 'doing fine' but is stuck in the 19th century.  The damage to the environment by fossil fuels outweighs anything else at present -- even those hippies at the Pentagon agree http://www.rtcc.org/2014/05/28/pentagon-clear-climate-change-is-a-national-security-issue/

As for ROI -- most solar companies give their customers the bottom end of the range (playing it safe) when it comes to estimates of generation.  My system generates more than was quoted and during the 'summer' (or the wet season as it is in the tropics) hits double the daily estimate. Meanwhile, energy costs will continue to increase.

Then there are more intangible benefits such as a sense of social responsibility and community contribution, which may mean little to you but have been shown to increase well-being in studies (there are a heap of papers I could include here if you are interested?).

Although there are many examples of 'greenwashing' (if you want to call someone out start with BP or HSBC), solar systems are not one of them and as the industry matures then manufacturing processes (in backwards countries like your own ) will be addressed and even greater efficiencies achieved.

But I get the feeling you are far more comfortable in your bubble of ennui.

[nanobrain]

2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)
3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

... (there is some justification for that hope)...

Jorge, that is positively bullish for you!!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

feels like the shorts are big part of the reason why price is this low...people will keep shorting(its working for them so...), price will drop... i dont see them getting squeezed anytime soon, they seemed determined.  but other shorts are covering when price drops, and new buyers buying,its just more and more pressure building. 500 felt pretty rock solid, i think we will see 500 again, but shorts gonna keep shorting the short term.

[Walsoraj]

2. I've heard a few large players say they wont be selling, and neither will I (those same players and myself were selling last time)
3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

... (there is some justification for that hope)...

Jorge, that is positively bullish for you!!

The Bitcoin Collective is slowly assimilating him.

[JorgeStolfi]

3. Everyone is expecting a drop now and most dont care if it happens

... (there is some justification for that hope)...

Jorge, that is positively bullish for you!!

Why do people consider me a bear?  

Although I am as skeptical as ever about bitcoin's ultimate success, I have said many times that I won't dare to guess what the price will do in the short or even medium term.  I can see scenarios where it may drop to ~150$ or less (e.g. China dumping everything and dropping out of the market) and scenarios where it may get over 1000$ again (e.g., a lot more demand in the US/Europe), although I would rather not guess the probabilities of those scenarios.  

The guess of a bottom at ~450$ is based on the fact that the price appeared to be stable at that level from Apr/28 to May/20, and bounced at that level on Aug/18. My tentative interpretation of those facts is that
* 450$ is the "consensus" price that the Chinese market found after the PBoC stopped interfering with bitcoin;
* the rise starting May/20 was due to rumors of some impending positive develpment;
* the fall from Aug/10--18 was due to those hopes being deflated; and
* the bounce after that was just a "dead cat bounce"

[Bogleg]

feels like the shorts are big part of the reason why price is this low...people will keep shorting(its working for them so...), price will drop... i dont see them getting squeezed anytime soon, they seemed determined.  but other shorts are covering when price drops, and new buyers buying,its just more and more pressure building. 500 felt pretty rock solid, i think we will see 500 again, but shorts gonna keep shorting the short term.

How can people short?

There is a mechanism for people to short what they do not own?

[adamstgBit]

feels like the shorts are big part of the reason why price is this low...people will keep shorting(its working for them so...), price will drop... i dont see them getting squeezed anytime soon, they seemed determined.  but other shorts are covering when price drops, and new buyers buying,its just more and more pressure building. 500 felt pretty rock solid, i think we will see 500 again, but shorts gonna keep shorting the short term.

How can people short?

There is a mechanism for people to short what they do not own?

yes, and the cost to borrow coins isn't much.