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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368204 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Newbie1022
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December 05, 2014, 04:30:29 PM

.@Newbie1022:  Careful you don't turn into a pig, bouncing between bear and bull like that Cheesy

Thanks for the thought... I had the same one... but the delusions are in full force on, here, and the longs on BFX are approaching bubble territory again (nearly $25 million). Then again, I am playing the greater fool game on the greater fool game, aren't I?

Anyhow, I have some narrow double shorts in place (not only to close but to switch) so I should be able to ride a spike a heavy downdraft... if it swings in both directions very quickly I'm screwed... but if the volatility runs in one direction for at least a 20 to 30 minute window I should be able to capture some volatility based gains.

I just don't feel like fighting the tide. Even though I know the tide is misguided.

Good luck, just hope you're not judging the sentiment by posts in this forum.  Most of the "to da moon!" folks have spent their munyz a long time ago, because permabulls. They have nothing to buy with--they never sell.  Now they're just cheering on their bags holdings.

True point. Very true point. There are stats, though. Longs are up. Shorts a bit, too... longs by more. Worst case scenario (because I have stops in place), I can't eat out this weekend. Wink Some of these guys have their life savings just hodling away, though.
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NotLambchop
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December 05, 2014, 04:38:00 PM

... even bear are getting afraid to dump this time.   Grin Grin Grin

Unlike the bulls, who thoughtlessly rush into everything, the bear is a patient, cerebral animal.  We strategize, waiting for just the right moment to void our bowels on unfortunate bulls below Cool

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December 05, 2014, 04:39:28 PM

Strange that the impending auction results have done literally nothing meaningful to the price.

What auction? Tongue

What results ?

Sucks, we won't know anything about the auction results. Sad
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December 05, 2014, 04:40:11 PM

Phew, I gotta say the walls on Stamp are pretty strong, at least given the current volume across the exchanges. I wonder how this plays out. At least it's a Friday without serious dumps (at least up to now). Let's see how the USMS auction affects things from now on...
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December 05, 2014, 04:50:16 PM

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Results of our US Marshals bitcoin syndicate:
 
Bids received - 104
BTC quantity bid - 124,127
 
Winners notified by USMS today

BIT SYNDICATE ALONE HAD FOR 124.127 BTC BIDS???

In principle, the syndicate is not trying to buy coins for Barry Silbert, SecondMarket, or the SMBIT fund.

The syndicate collects money from small bidders (starting at 25 k$ minimum bid) and joins them into the 1000 or 2000 BTC bids for the USMS auction.  If any of these merged bid makes it to the winners list, SecondMarket distributes the coins to the corresponding small bidders, and collects a fee for its service.  Otherwise they return the money to the small bidders, and shrug off their wasted work.

They had 104 small bidders which together wanted to buy 124'127 BTC.  Obviously when they assembled the bids for the USMS auction it would be pointless to bid for more than 50'000 BTC.  So they must have considered the highest among those small bids, until completing 50'000 BTC, and rejected the rest.

One cannot tell from those numbers whether any of the bids were above or below market.
noobtrader
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December 05, 2014, 04:54:53 PM

.... the bear is a patient, cerebral animal...  



ohhh like these





 Grin
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December 05, 2014, 04:59:56 PM

Price is broke.

Someone go shake the machine a little.
phoenix1
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December 05, 2014, 05:00:25 PM

Quote
Results of our US Marshals bitcoin syndicate:
 
Bids received - 104
BTC quantity bid - 124,127
 
Winners notified by USMS today

BIT SYNDICATE ALONE HAD FOR 124.127 BTC BIDS???

In principle, the syndicate is not trying to buy coins for Barry Silbert, SecondMarket, or the SMBIT fund.

The syndicate collects money from small bidders (starting at 25 k$ minimum bid) and joins them into the 1000 or 2000 BTC bids for the USMS auction.  If any of these merged bid makes it to the winners list, SecondMarket distributes the coins to the corresponding small bidders, and collects a fee for its service.  Otherwise they return the money to the small bidders, and shrug off their wasted work.

They had 104 small bidders which together wanted to buy 124'127 BTC.  Obviously when they assembled the bids for the USMS auction it would be pointless to bid for more than 50'000 BTC.  So they must have considered the highest among those small bids, until completing 50'000 BTC, and rejected the rest.

One cannot tell from those numbers whether any of the bids were above or below market.

Not with great certainty, no, but the number of bids, and the fact that it is a syndicate raises the chances that, just like last time, the BIT consortium will be bidding below market. To me it just makes no sense to buy 2-5k thru a syndicate, in an auction, and bid over market price. Who would do such a thing? The smaller the fish, the lower the bids ... else they would buy on an exchange. Yes, I realise there are exceptions to this, but I am sticking to my theory that no syndicate will bid above market, and that a lot of syndicate members are just opportunists looking for a quick buck or deep discounted coins.

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December 05, 2014, 05:00:57 PM


Explanation
LFC_Bitcoin
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December 05, 2014, 05:02:33 PM

Newbie1022
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December 05, 2014, 05:03:34 PM

Price is broke.

Someone go shake the machine a little.

 Grin
phoenix1
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December 05, 2014, 05:05:50 PM

Price is broke.

Someone go shake the machine a little.

Do coins drop out if you do ??

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December 05, 2014, 05:06:07 PM

Well ...

Looking at the price chart is kinda boring from few months ..

I was hoping that at the end of a year we will see some spectacular movement but nothing seems to be happening.

What will 2015 bring to us?  :-)
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December 05, 2014, 05:07:24 PM

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?

gkv9
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December 05, 2014, 05:08:06 PM

Price is broke.

Someone go shake the machine a little.

Seems the bulls are ready to do it, we need to wait and watch for the upcoming auction results, and may the prices skyrocket higher than expected. I need to get some nice fiat for my coins... Wink
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December 05, 2014, 05:09:51 PM

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?



Because they already own 100k+. They don't need more to become very, very rich.
Newbie1022
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December 05, 2014, 05:11:19 PM

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?



Because they already own 100k+. They don't need more to become very, very rich.

But, they could be 50% more "rich"
Tzupy
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December 05, 2014, 05:11:35 PM

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?


Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.
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December 05, 2014, 05:12:32 PM

And the winner is  ... TZUPY !!!

EDIT : Why not throw in a little more bearish sauce and suggest that IF their EFT was near to launch, they would probably be keen to pick up more coins now. Ergo, it's probably still some way off. Pure speculation of course, but hey, that's what we're here for
Newbie1022
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December 05, 2014, 05:12:40 PM

Question... The Winklevoss twins say that Bicoins will be worth greater than $100,000... but they decided not to bid on coins they could arguably get below market. Why?


Why buy now? Wait 1 - 2 months and buy then at much lower prices and with little slippage due to huge volume.

Well, that's the point. They are as locked in as anybody... and they aren't even willing to throw out a spitball, low bid on this.
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