ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[SOSLOVE868]

That's fairly reasonable. Guess I'll order another two 10GH blades when they become available. Nice options.

I'm actually surprised that there is enough room for a fairly quick ROI.  Asicminer historically has priced things fairly tightly in terms of ROI.

Considering 100TH, KnC, Bitfury and 2nd Gen Asicminer are all coming in the next 8 weeks it's nice to see that these may actually return a profit.

If their chips is 28nm standards ,then I am pretty sure it would be very long-way for them to into mass production,Since the capable manufactures to producing at 28nm standards are still scarce supply in the market.(They are too busy to producing chips for those GPU/MOBILE and other electrical devices)

[1714707234]

1714707234

[1714707234]

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[BlackLilac Jordan]

rockxie just announced  the  new&mini blade. Here: http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/Jk4aV

new blade: 10GH/s=18.88BTC Group buy 18.68BTC
mini blade: 5GH/s=9.88BTC     Group buy 9.68BTC

here we go, people!  who cares about tomorrow's dividend, I am ready for NEXT WEEK!

Ok time to revive the speculation thread
Woot so lets guess on the dividends for the next week after this week XD

What do you think about this week?

There seems to be less in the mining address than at this time in recent weeks. If we have bad luck over the next 24 hours maybe the dividend will be significantly lower... and we'll see another drop in share price before the upcoming blade announcement sends the price through the roof.   

[VeeMiner]

rockxie just announced  the  new&mini blade. Here: http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/Jk4aV

new blade: 10GH/s=18.88BTC Group buy 18.68BTC
mini blade: 5GH/s=9.88BTC     Group buy 9.68BTC

here we go, people!  who cares about tomorrow's dividend, I am ready for NEXT WEEK!

those are crazy prices! People are going to tear arms of anyone that will have these on hand! I hope they will be for sale in other places than in China!

[chkgk]

It's Wednesday everyone! 
Dividend Prediction: 0.020 - 0.022

[bobboooiie]

They have shown that they are capable of hashing > than 60TH.  I believe we are in for a large hardware sale week and they have been throttling back to manage the dividend.

No they did not.. You need to realize all those tracking/graphing sites are just estimates figured out from blocks found over the time.

[ArcticWolf]

They have shown that they are capable of hashing > than 60TH.  I believe we are in for a large hardware sale week and they have been throttling back to manage the dividend.

No they did not.. You need to realize all those tracking/graphing sites are just estimates figured out from blocks found over the time.

Exactly. ASICMINER may have gotten lucky in that small period and found several blocks at 10-20%

[Mabsark]

rockxie just announced  the  new&mini blade. Here: http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/Jk4aV

new blade: 10GH/s=18.88BTC Group buy 18.68BTC
mini blade: 5GH/s=9.88BTC     Group buy 9.68BTC

here we go, people!  who cares about tomorrow's dividend, I am ready for NEXT WEEK!

those are crazy prices! People are going to tear arms of anyone that will have these on hand! I hope they will be for sale in other places than in China!

Crazy expensive.

I wish you people who don't seem to be capable of basic maths would stop spreading complete and utter bullshit in the hopes of pumping and dumping.

10 BTC for a 5 Gh/s miner is shite. Jalapenos and K16s are a third of that price at the current exchange rate. The mini Blade would have to mine about 6.5 BTC before a Jalapeno or K16 ordered today actually shipped. Based on a difficulty of 25,590,229 (about 20% increase), the mini Blade would earn 0.092 BTC per day. By keeping the difficulty constant, it would take 66 days to mine 6.5 BTC. If we assume the difficulty increase by 15% per pound, then we get the following:

0.0982 * 12 = 1.1784
0.0851 * 12 = 1.0212
0.0740 * 12 = 0.888
0.0643 * 12 = 0.7716
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0425 * 12 = 0.51
0.0369 * 12 = 0.4428
0.0321 * 12 = 0.3852

That's 6.5388 BTC over the next 108 days after this coming difficulty increase.

Once again, ASICMiner has set its prices to rip off gullible idiots who can't count and the competition, even though they're not shipping from the shelf yet, is still more profitable.

[Streets 2.0]

I did not realize nothing was more profitable than something... shit, learn something new each day

[circuitry]

Divpred: .013 on mining & .02 - .04 on sales.
Not the jackpot but the next weeks 'll probably be awesome

SmiGueL is probably *the* authority on AM's dividend tracking, so I'm feeling optimistic.

If dividend is > .04 and BTCUSD doesn't go down, prepare for a rally.

[blackreplica]

Holy shit, seriously? 0.033-0.053 total dividend? Thats going to send the share price through the roof.

Anything conclusive to back this up?

[VeeMiner]

rockxie just announced  the  new&mini blade. Here: http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/Jk4aV

new blade: 10GH/s=18.88BTC Group buy 18.68BTC
mini blade: 5GH/s=9.88BTC     Group buy 9.68BTC

here we go, people!  who cares about tomorrow's dividend, I am ready for NEXT WEEK!

those are crazy prices! People are going to tear arms of anyone that will have these on hand! I hope they will be for sale in other places than in China!

Crazy expensive.

I wish you people who don't seem to be capable of basic maths would stop spreading complete and utter bullshit in the hopes of pumping and dumping.

10 BTC for a 5 Gh/s miner is shite. Jalapenos and K16s are a third of that price at the current exchange rate. The mini Blade would have to mine about 6.5 BTC before a Jalapeno or K16 ordered today actually shipped. Based on a difficulty of 25,590,229 (about 20% increase), the mini Blade would earn 0.092 BTC per day. By keeping the difficulty constant, it would take 66 days to mine 6.5 BTC. If we assume the difficulty increase by 15% per pound, then we get the following:

0.0982 * 12 = 1.1784
0.0851 * 12 = 1.0212
0.0740 * 12 = 0.888
0.0643 * 12 = 0.7716
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0425 * 12 = 0.51
0.0369 * 12 = 0.4428
0.0321 * 12 = 0.3852

That's 6.5388 BTC over the next 108 days after this coming difficulty increase.

Once again, ASICMiner has set its prices to rip off gullible idiots who can't count and the competition, even though they're not shipping from the shelf yet, is still more profitable.

I love how people compare asicminer miners to BFL miner. Dude. I mean dude. You know that when you order ASICMINER device you get it within couple days? If you were to order Jalapeňo today you will be happy to get it this year. Enough said.

[101111]

Could be a super frieday? High divs and BTC looks ready to spring $5 - $10 usd higher?

[Streets 2.0]

Could be a super frieday? High divs and BTC looks ready to spring $5 - $10 usd higher?

Smells like a rally brewing

[Mabsark]

I did not realize nothing was more profitable than something... shit, learn something new each day

You can keep repeating that nonsense as much you want, but you'd have to be the most idiotic of idiots to actually believe that BFL hasn't shipped any products. Jalapenos are currently mining as we speak, can the same be said of mini Blades? So yes, something (Jalapeno) is more profitable than nothing (mini Blade).

BFL are currently saying all back orders will be shipped by September, that's only 2 months away. K16s will be shipping as well by then. Like I have just shown with maths, instead of the nonsense spewed by you pumpers, it would take 2 months of mining with no difficulty increases for a mini Blade to be as profitable as its competition. That's not going to happen.

Instead of spewing nonsense, how about you show some maths which would indicate that these devices are at least as profitable as a Jalapeno and K16. You won't do that because you can't.

[ArcticWolf]

I did not realize nothing was more profitable than something... shit, learn something new each day

You can keep repeating that nonsense as much you want, but you'd have to be the most idiotic of idiots to actually believe that BFL hasn't shipped any products. Jalapenos are currently mining as we speak, can the same be said of mini Blades? So yes, something (Jalapeno) is more profitable than nothing (mini Blade).

BFL are currently saying all back orders will be shipped by September, that's only 2 months away. K16s will be shipping as well by then. Like I have just shown with maths, instead of the nonsense spewed by you pumpers, it would take 2 months of mining with no difficulty increases for a mini Blade to be as profitable as its competition. That's not going to happen.

Instead of spewing nonsense, how about you show some maths which would indicate that these devices are at least as profitable as a Jalapeno and K16. You won't do that because you can't.

Because BFL definitely definitely delivers when they say they will deliver. Right? Guys?

[somestranger]

I did not realize nothing was more profitable than something... shit, learn something new each day

You can keep repeating that nonsense as much you want, but you'd have to be the most idiotic of idiots to actually believe that BFL hasn't shipped any products. Jalapenos are currently mining as we speak, can the same be said of mini Blades? So yes, something (Jalapeno) is more profitable than nothing (mini Blade).

BFL are currently saying all back orders will be shipped by September, that's only 2 months away. K16s will be shipping as well by then. Like I have just shown with maths, instead of the nonsense spewed by you pumpers, it would take 2 months of mining with no difficulty increases for a mini Blade to be as profitable as its competition. That's not going to happen.

Instead of spewing nonsense, how about you show some maths which would indicate that these devices are at least as profitable as a Jalapeno and K16. You won't do that because you can't.

Your post is full of optimistic assumptions. The mini blades will be shipping out extremely soon (they were just announced ffs) and AM already shipped out tons of blades in the last 2 months, way more than BFL is capable of putting out. Also, only a handful of BFL's higher end miners have been shipped while the vast majority are still waiting two weeks™ for theirs.

I don't think it really matters whether these new mini blades will be profitable; the argument is that BFL has a year of backlog to deal with and there is no reason to believe they will suddenly ship everyone's unit in 2 months. Neither is there a reason to believe that KNC will be any different than Avalon/BFL in terms of delays.

[JimiQ84]

BFL ships two order days per calendar day currently. Not that much. And that's only Jalapenos, the easiest product.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/blogs/stevegee58/226-jalapeno-paid-order-dates-per-shipping-day-july-9.html

They have around a year of backorder, so in half a year they should ship what you order right now. Good luck with that :-)

[Rival]

If today I decided to purchase some hashing power, I could have AM blades running in less than a week. The chances of getting BFL power before Christmas if ordered today is a toss-up.

Order from AM and get a 6 month jump on hashing, or buy from BFL and get something that will require multiplying infinities for ROI. Seems like a no-brainer, so unless you ordered from BFL a year ago you might as well forget them as the are irrelevant to current purchasers.

Or you could just buy AM shares and get paid weekly  

Disclaimer: I ordered 2x25Gh from BFL in April and am doubt I will see them before October.

[Mabsark]

rockxie just announced  the  new&mini blade. Here: http://vdisk.weibo.com/s/Jk4aV

new blade: 10GH/s=18.88BTC Group buy 18.68BTC
mini blade: 5GH/s=9.88BTC     Group buy 9.68BTC

here we go, people!  who cares about tomorrow's dividend, I am ready for NEXT WEEK!

those are crazy prices! People are going to tear arms of anyone that will have these on hand! I hope they will be for sale in other places than in China!

Crazy expensive.

I wish you people who don't seem to be capable of basic maths would stop spreading complete and utter bullshit in the hopes of pumping and dumping.

10 BTC for a 5 Gh/s miner is shite. Jalapenos and K16s are a third of that price at the current exchange rate. The mini Blade would have to mine about 6.5 BTC before a Jalapeno or K16 ordered today actually shipped. Based on a difficulty of 25,590,229 (about 20% increase), the mini Blade would earn 0.092 BTC per day. By keeping the difficulty constant, it would take 66 days to mine 6.5 BTC. If we assume the difficulty increase by 15% per pound, then we get the following:

0.0982 * 12 = 1.1784
0.0851 * 12 = 1.0212
0.0740 * 12 = 0.888
0.0643 * 12 = 0.7716
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0559 * 12 = 0.6708
0.0425 * 12 = 0.51
0.0369 * 12 = 0.4428
0.0321 * 12 = 0.3852

That's 6.5388 BTC over the next 108 days after this coming difficulty increase.

Once again, ASICMiner has set its prices to rip off gullible idiots who can't count and the competition, even though they're not shipping from the shelf yet, is still more profitable.

I love how people compare asicminer miners to BFL miner. Dude. I mean dude. You know that when you order ASICMINER device you get it within couple days? If you were to order Jalapeňo today you will be happy to get it this year. Enough said.

Did you even bother to read the post you responded to? I compared the mini-Blade with a Jalapeno and a Klondike K16, then I showed that in order for the mini-Blade to be competitive, you have to assume that difficulty will not increase for the next 2 months. So, if you buy a mini-Blade today and it ships just in time to come online after this difficulty increase, and I buy a K16 today and it's shipped to me in 2 month time, the K16 will be more profitable and no amount of bullshit will change that fact.

Given that fact, how can you possibly claim that they're not still overpriced?

[JimiQ84]

Did you even bother to read the post you responded to? I compared the mini-Blade with a Jalapeno and a Klondike K16, then I showed that in order for the mini-Blade to be competitive, you have to assume that difficulty will not increase for the next 2 months. So, if you buy a mini-Blade today and it ships just in time to come online after this difficulty increase, and I buy a K16 today and it's shipped to me in 2 month time, the K16 will be more profitable and no amount of bullshit will change that fact.

Given that fact, how can you possibly claim that they're not still overpriced?

The problem is that K16 won't be shipped to you in 2 months. Do you know how slow with shipping Avalon actually is? Batch3 is currently delayed about 2 months.