-

[||bit]

Difficulty increased by 125% in the past 30 days.

Increase is only 71%. Do your homework.

Sorry, I already did, and will even help you with yours....

Recorded difficulty values can be seen here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHVRMHpqWUJValI1RlZiaEtCT1RrQmc#gid=0



Note that current difficulty is actually 148,819,200

Now, calculate the percentage increase from 65,750,060 to 148,819,200

[||bit]

Difficulty increased by 125% in the past 30 days.

Not sure what your point is by stating an obvious fact..... At least also illustrate a relevant comparison with the correlating increase in LRM hash rate in the last 30 days

LRM hash rate increased by 200% in the past 30 days. The difference is that LRM is still starting up. When the first 60GH went online, it increased an ∞ percentage.
Yes, I realize difficulty will slow down too.

[||bit]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

[M31]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

Can anyone make electronics cheaper than companies in China?  If not, then logically China will take over production of miners.  I think selling for a 100% markup is optimistic.  The miner market will probably be cutthroat in a year or less.

Maybe an American company can come up with a new type of processor -- something based on a semiconductor that switches faster, or a replacement for semiconductors, but in the end it comes down to: who can make the most for the least, and cheap power. 

[||bit]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

Can anyone make electronics cheaper than companies in China?  If not, then logically China will take over production of miners.  I think selling for a 100% markup is optimistic.  The miner market will probably be cutthroat in a year or less.

Maybe an American company can come up with a new type of processor -- something based on a semiconductor that switches faster, or a replacement for semiconductors, but in the end it comes down to: who can make the most for the least, and cheap power. 

Why do you think 100% markup is optimistic? Seems pretty normal if you ask me. Do you think it's optimistic of the customer on the low side, or of the manufacturer on the high side?

[mmmerlin]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

Can anyone make electronics cheaper than companies in China?  If not, then logically China will take over production of miners.  I think selling for a 100% markup is optimistic.  The miner market will probably be cutthroat in a year or less.

Maybe an American company can come up with a new type of processor -- something based on a semiconductor that switches faster, or a replacement for semiconductors, but in the end it comes down to: who can make the most for the least, and cheap power. 

Why do you think 100% markup is optimistic? Seems pretty normal if you ask me. Do you think it's optimistic of the customer on the low side, or of the manufacturer on the high side?

FWIW, and I haven't run the numbers (yet), but I am fairly sure they will turn out to say that electricity consumption will stop people buying miners no matter what their prices are long before manufacturers have to worry about profitability...

(this obviously assumes no huge increase in the BTC price amongst several other things)

[bigasic]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

I dont know if you guys have seen blackforest thread. I guess they are going to start shipping in feb at 1.99 per GH/s but thats a long way off, but we are going to see 1 terahash only cost a few hundred  bucks by summer, if not less, the way the difficulty is going.. But, I don't know if id trust blackforest as of yet. but it shows whats going to be available from multiple companies, im sure...

(doesnt seem that long ago that my 10 fpga singles mined about 3 coins a day, those were the days..)

[mmmerlin]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

I dont know if you guys have seen blackforest thread. I guess they are going to start shipping in feb at 1.99 per GH/s but thats a long way off, but we are going to see 1 terahash only cost a few hundred  bucks by summer, if not less, the way the difficulty is going.. But, I don't know if id trust blackforest as of yet. but it shows whats going to be available from multiple companies, im sure...

(doesnt seem that long ago that my 10 fpga singles mined about 3 coins a day, those were the days..)

The more things like this become true, the more electricity becomes the limiting factor... You will never see terahashes for a hundred bucks without either also having increases in efficiency or BTC price by orders of magnitude.

[bigasic]

well, if blackforest is on, 1 terahash will cost 1999.00 thats in feb. Granted, there is a bigger chance that they dont make either the time frame or spec. but if we are seeing sub 2k on 1 terahash, who knows what it will be by summer. But, lets talk about blackforest when they actually start shipping, lol..

Im surprised how fast they are getting and the price is dropping. Even if you just look at cointerra or hashfast, I would have thought it would have been late next year before we saw those type of numbers..

So, LRM purchased monarchs, correct? if so, how many? arent they in the first batch? If BFL is on time for once, that would be great for us..

[mmmerlin]

If BFL is on time for once, that would be great for us..

Don't hold your breath on that. If you want to hedge on this then I will offer bets that they fuck up again...

[M31]

the last couple difficulty changes were minor compared to the changes that will be coming our way.. get ready for huge difficulty increases, at least til the end of winter/spring... then it may level off, but who knows.. I have faith in LR...

I suspect retail price per GH will drop dramatically by summer. When/As that happens, miners will buy. There is a fundamental difference between what is coming verus past difficulty increases.
With GPU & FPGA mining the price/GH was tied to video cards or FPGA chips. And video cards and FPGA chips had margins - for the manufacturers - which were not tied to bitcoin mining difficulty.
In contrast, ASIC hardware manufacturers will be forced to lower prices. Expect a never ending cycle to the point that manufacturers will sell at just double the cost... which will be really low. Until that point, difficulty will just climb as fast as the various manufacturers can collectively pump them out.

Can anyone make electronics cheaper than companies in China?  If not, then logically China will take over production of miners.  I think selling for a 100% markup is optimistic.  The miner market will probably be cutthroat in a year or less.

Maybe an American company can come up with a new type of processor -- something based on a semiconductor that switches faster, or a replacement for semiconductors, but in the end it comes down to: who can make the most for the least, and cheap power. 

Why do you think 100% markup is optimistic? Seems pretty normal if you ask me. Do you think it's optimistic of the customer on the low side, or of the manufacturer on the high side?

It's a race to the bottom in terms of profit margin for the manufacturer.  The Chinese will undercut all others, and giant mining farms (like LRM) will make it cheaper for the consumer to buy bonds rather than mining hardware directly.

I'm not sure of examples to support this, apart from reading that computer components have a very low markup.

Of course, smaller operations may choose to run less efficiently in the short-term, hoping the value of BTC rises.

[bigasic]

If BFL is on time for once, that would be great for us..

Don't hold your breath on that. If you want to hedge on this then I will offer bets that they fuck up again...

Im almost 100 percent certain that they wont deliver on time.. Im just saying odd wise, they might have a chance this time. I mean, how many times can a company screw up? they need to hit their time frame at least one time out of four, you would think...

Then you have to remember who we are dealing with at BFL, they dont seem to learn from their mistakes....

Im just wondering who (and how many miners) LR has made a commitment from.. I have heard that he has purchased some monarchs, but I don't know a number, a run down on what has been committed would be nice, if there is a post somewhere already with this info would be nice as well..

[mmmerlin]

Im almost 100 percent certain that they wont deliver on time.. Im just saying odd wise, they might have a chance this time. I mean, how many times can a company screw up? they need to hit their time frame at least one time out of four, you would think...

I think you may need to revisit your stats textbooks... The previous outcomes don't make it more likely for them to get it right in the future if the events are independent, and if they're not, then the way I see it, the fact they have failed many times in the past makes it more likely that they'll screw up again, not less. A leopard doesn't change it's spot and all that. And as you rightly say, they aren't punished for it, people keep buying - what's the motivation to get it right?

Im just wondering who (and how many miners) LR has made a commitment from.. I have heard that he has purchased some monarchs, but I don't know a number, a run down on what has been committed would be nice, if there is a post somewhere already with this info would be nice as well..

Many people are wondering about this, but LR is very busy at the moment and so communication has been less than ideal and less than it was before. This is all for the good of the company though, as good stuff is being put into action. However, as you are far from alone in wondering about this (just look up the thread!), hopefully there will be some word on this when he's got some time...

EDIT: If you can find a buyer for the Monarch order I'm sure he would be willing to sell. That said, it's hard to arrange when you don't know how many you're selling...

[btceic]

As a large shareholder I agree with the two week dividends going to improve the company

Sorry guys for sidetracking this thread but....

Bargraphics,
Why did you delete all of your posts in the TerraHash thread? Did they stop paying you?

[mmmerlin]

As a large shareholder I agree with the two week dividends going to improve the company

Sorry guys for sidetracking this thread but....

Bargraphics,
Why did you delete all of your posts in the TerraHash thread? Did they stop paying you?

Why the random quote of his in your post, is it relevant? Why are you posting this here?

This is either a job for a PM or requires a bit more context IMHO...

[joeventura]

Yes, I realize difficulty will slow down too.

Sure it will.   

[bigasic]

Thanks lab for getting me on the email list.. Mucho appreciado..

On a side note, I just remember a little about terrahash, glad i missed that boat, lol the only good that I see coming from that is less hashing power, hence more profit for LRM.. lol....

[fractal02]

As a large shareholder I agree with the two week dividends going to improve the company

Sorry guys for sidetracking this thread but....

Bargraphics,
Why did you delete all of your posts in the TerraHash thread? Did they stop paying you?

Why post here ?

Open a new thread or send him PM, retard.

[mmmerlin]

Why post here ?

Open a new thread or send him PM, retard.

Yikes, and to think I was worried I was a little harsh saying the same thing!

[||bit]

Im almost 100 percent certain that they wont deliver on time.. Im just saying odd wise, they might have a chance this time. I mean, how many times can a company screw up? they need to hit their time frame at least one time out of four, you would think...

I think you may need to revisit your stats textbooks... The previous outcomes don't make it more likely for them to get it right in the future if the events are independent, and if they're not, then the way I see it, the fact they have failed many times in the past makes it more likely that they'll screw up again, not less. A leopard doesn't change it's spot and all that. And as you rightly say, they aren't punished for it, people keep buying - what's the motivation to get it right?

Im just wondering who (and how many miners) LR has made a commitment from.. I have heard that he has purchased some monarchs, but I don't know a number, a run down on what has been committed would be nice, if there is a post somewhere already with this info would be nice as well..

Many people are wondering about this, but LR is very busy at the moment and so communication has been less than ideal and less than it was before. This is all for the good of the company though, as good stuff is being put into action. However, as you are far from alone in wondering about this (just look up the thread!), hopefully there will be some word on this when he's got some time...

EDIT: If you can find a buyer for the Monarch order I'm sure he would be willing to sell. That said, it's hard to arrange when you don't know how many you're selling...

I'm pretty sure he has ordered about $150,000 worth of Monarchs!! That is why I would like to see him sell out on that order. And asked others to ask him if they see a problem with that.
Being tied up with BFL Monarchs may be the biggest downside with LRM at this time, imo.