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[sparky999]

Has anyone done any math to figure out what value might be held with LRM bonds at 100TH? So far, my figures don't look spectacular... as always.. order time and difficulty are the neutralizer. I want to see mathematical reasoning for expecting any sustainability, if not growth.

BTW: I'm estimating dividends will yield ~BTC0.001225/bond this coming weekend... but... decaying down again in following weeks until any new hardware is received (well, after two weeks of separate mining).

How does 0.001225 compare to the best weekly div's to date of all other weeks? I'm going to take a guess that it's higher, but not much better than the next best - despite having 5 times more hashing power.  

Yeah those two weeks of mining dividends had better buy multiples of our total hashrate right now otherwise this venture is going downhill and fast. Doesn't look like all those bonds are gonna be sold either so what that means for the asic chip idea is anybody's guess right now.
I have a horrible feeling lab_rat is planning on using the two weeks of mining dividends to fund this asic chip idea and when the inevitable delays come from the asic chip this business will be in deep deep trouble.

Would you like to persuade me otherwise please lab-rat?

[bobfranklin]

How does 0.001225 compare to the best weekly div's to date of all other weeks? I'm going to take a guess that it's higher, but not much better than the next best - despite having 5 times more hashing power.  

Looking at my meager holding it's maybe double than last div - for me anyways.

[hamburgerhelper]

>I have a horrible feeling lab_rat is planning on using the two weeks of mining dividends to fund this asic chip idea and when the inevitable delays come from the asic chip this business will be in deep deep trouble.

I couldn't agree more. When I read LR's announcement about the ASIC investment, my stomach turned.

The road to a working ASIC is long and treacherous and its littered with the corpses of the failed. If bondholders could vote, I'd vote no. I didn't invest in an ASIC development company, I thought I was going to mine bitcoins. Mission creep is a killer.

[contactmike1]

I will offer the dissenting opinion.  

Given the way equipment purchasing and dividends have been going, it appears our current model isn't working.  Labrat has done a fine job, but the progress on getting a return has been slim to none. The only way we will get our IPO bitcoin paid back is if we have some major market advantage and an extremely large mine size.  Granted, going in on an ASIC manufacturer is just as risky as placing preorders, but I agree this is the only solid choice for getting a 100% bitcoin return.  This means dirt cheap ASIC prices and likely the ability to queue jump.  Both of these have immeasurable value for keeping ahead of difficulty and getting miners delivered "yesterday."

Labrat has historically shown pristine judgement in how he allocates funds.  For this reason, I do not have any issues with the sudden shift in direction.  He would not put funds into an ASIC company if he wasn't absolutely confident in company and the return.

[daemonfox]

>I have a horrible feeling lab_rat is planning on using the two weeks of mining dividends to fund this asic chip idea and when the inevitable delays come from the asic chip this business will be in deep deep trouble.

I couldn't agree more. When I read LR's announcement about the ASIC investment, my stomach turned.

The road to a working ASIC is long and treacherous and its littered with the corpses of the failed. If bondholders could vote, I'd vote no. I didn't invest in an ASIC development company, I thought I was going to mine bitcoins. Mission creep is a killer.

All I have to say to that, sir... is...

LRM is in the process of getting involved in an ASIC project that started months back.  The project has made it past every test, the only thing that was needed was a little extra funding.  This is something LRM could offer in return for at cost hardware as a result of partial ownership of the company.

When I hear LR say that.. it sounds to me like they are well past design and tapeout... and it is time to plunk down the hard cash for the fab to make the run. Needing 4 more weeks before he can go into detail makes it sound like they are in line for the fab run... and that the 4 weeks is to provide enough time to get chips in to verify yield and test in the boards that are probably already in hand (at least a first run).

I will offer the dissenting opinion. 

Given the way equipment purchasing and dividends have been going, it appears our current model isn't working.  Labrat has done a fine job, but the progress on getting a return has been slim to none. The only way we will get our IPO bitcoin paid back is if we have some major market advantage and an extremely large mine size.  Granted, going in on an ASIC manufacturer is just as risky as placing preorders, but I agree this is the only solid choice for getting a 100% bitcoin return.  This means dirt cheap ASIC prices and likely the ability to queue jump.  Both of these have immeasurable value for keeping ahead of difficulty and getting miners delivered "yesterday."

Labrat has historically shown pristine judgement in how he allocates funds.  For this reason, I do not have any issues with the sudden shift in direction.  He would not put funds into an ASIC company if he wasn't absolutely confident in company and the return.

I am with you here... we are well beyond standing in line for a pre-order or fully assembled miner from any other manufacturer, since LR already has BFs and Monarchs coming in the next few weeks. If we do not already have a spot in line for a 28nm or better ASIC in the coming months... this ASIC chip project is the ticket for LRM.

The extra BTC earned by the pre-mine period before the hashrate started working for us is to purchase equipment... to date... I would assume that means LR would have to place an order now and wait in line.... so... order current gen and wait a few weeks for delivery... or... place those funds into this project, and secure our future hardware at cost for the lifespan of that ASIC... if it is a 28nm or better... we just solidified future growth at cost for about 2 years... tell me where you can beat that and I will give you my 7 shares.

[sparky999]

With out knowing what stage this ASIC project is at it's impossible to say if it is worth doing, we will just have to wait and see what lab-rat decides in a few weeks time.

[rustyh17]

When comparing diff increase with hardware delivery and quantity, it appears quite imperative that
LRM get in on an ASIC project as an owner. Delivering ASIC hardware at cost can quite likely get this
PMB back in front of the diff curve and help us reach ROI. ASICMiner is the perfect example of just such
an approach. I'd really like to see our share price trading above 0.15BTC again.

A PMB is not a perpetual motion machine. In order to stay in motion, it must have some input source.
In this case, our "source" is installing hardware at cost rather than at wholesale (or even near retail)
price. Otherwise, in my opinion, we can all go home and watch the clock run down.

[Frankthechicken]

When comparing diff increase with hardware delivery and quantity, it appears quite imperative that
LRM get in on an ASIC project as an owner. Delivering ASIC hardware at cost can quite likely get this
PMB back in front of the diff curve and help us reach ROI. ASICMiner is the perfect example of just such
an approach. I'd really like to see our share price trading above 0.15BTC again.

A PMB is not a perpetual motion machine. In order to stay in motion, it must have some input source.
In this case, our "source" is installing hardware at cost rather than at wholesale (or even near retail)
price. Otherwise, in my opinion, we can all go home and watch the clock run down.

Well said.

[||bit]

It seems one problem with mining is that (some or most or all?) bitcoin mining hardware suppliers are pricing hardware for miners to have the incentive of obtaining a return on dollar value - not a return on bitcoin. Consider LRM, the price of bitcoins have went up about 900% since. If dollars was what you wanted to break even on, then bond holders will probably achieve that pretty easily if it hasn't happened already. But you will be struggling if you want a return on btc - which is what most bond buyers probably intended. This is why to me buying and holding bitcoin seems historically to be the consistent most winning move....with least headaches none-less!

[Jeffrey]

It seems one problem with mining is that (some or most or all?) bitcoin mining hardware suppliers are pricing hardware for miners to have the incentive of obtaining a return on dollar value - not a return on bitcoin. Consider LRM, the price of bitcoins have went up about 900% since. If dollars was what you wanted to break even on, then bond holders will probably get that pretty easily. But you will be struggling if you want a return on btc. This is why to me buying and holding bitcoin seems historically to be the consistent most winning move....with least headaches none-less!

Yeah this is the thing in the entire bitcoin "world". Everything is still calculated against $ or €. Can't blame anyone, I think it will take a longggg time before people stop doing this.
(reminds me of when my old currency got converted to  €, it took many years before people stopped calculating back to the old currency)
I think I've invested something like 12 BTC In shares. However, that was in the $80-$100 times. (so let's say $1200)
Right now the shares are worth roughly half of the original value, but the value went up by factor 10, so if I would sell them I would get like 7-8 BTC which is worth up to $7500
(all just some rough numbers)
But yeah if I would calculate how long it will take to get 12 BTC in dividends from LRM, that's going to take some time.

The question is also, am I doing this to in the end get $ or € to do let's say daily shopping and pay my bills, or am I doing this to actually spend the earned BTC directly on vendors accepting BTC?

I think it's all personal for everybody why he/she is doing this and what he/she is trying to achieve in the end.

[M31]

Ultimately, if we could raise a crop of our own ASICs such that we never have to wait on orders, that would work out best.  Second best would be exclusive access to chips ahead of others, and we make our own custom boards.  The boards, software and power are not a big issue once chips are in hand, and can be assembled in days.

I'll quote myself... 'nuff said with regards to an ASIC -- it's the *only* way forward.

[MaxwellsDemon]

But you will be struggling if you want a return on btc - which is what most bond buyers probably intended. This is why to me buying and holding bitcoin seems historically to be the consistent most winning move....with least headaches none-less!

Very true. That's a lesson I learned the hard way...

[hamburgerhelper]

While I haven't heard anything concrete, I don't think Lab_Rat is considering a third-party exchange.  BitFunder burned a lot of people pretty badly, and any exchange that gets big enough is going to run the risk of attracting legal attention from the US and having to shut down.  I have gotten the impression (which may be incorrect) that Lab_Rat is investigating an "in house" solution that will allow the automated trading of LRM bonds (and only LRM bonds).


grnbrg.

The sad fact is that this hasn't happened yet because its not Zach's problem. He sold the shares once, and that's all he needs for the business to continue. He continues to sell shares without an automated platform in place. See, what's all the fuss?

Its the bondholders who are stuck holding the bag. When you buy LRM bonds, you're essentially committing to holding them for the (roughly) 3 years it will take for dividends to pay out 100% of your investment OR you can sell them slowly, over a forum, at a loss. Will LRM be around in 3 years? I guess I'll find out.

grnbrg, I think the best thing you could do for bondholders, bond price, and the long-term viability of LRM is to stop facilitating sales of new bonds. Then it would be Zach's problem and he'd make time to address it. Not that I'm telling you what to do! Just a friendly suggestion.

Think of the price bump this mystery ASIC nonsense would've caused. The more skeptical among us could've sold our bonds to the dreamers without taking a bath. I'd love to have that option right now.

[CumpsD]

If it's the bond holders problem, a enterpreneuring bondholder can setup a trading platform and take a 0.x% cut on each trade

Takers?

[rustyh17]

The problem with setting up a trading platform is that it is illegal. The SEC will not sanction a
trading platform for securities that are not regulated unless LRM goes through the trouble
of proving that all the players are qualified investors. Most of us are likely not in that category.

As I see it, the only long term solution is a decentralized exchange (like mastercoin or colored
coins or some equivalent). Has anyone kept up with the dev status on any of the decentralized
exchange solutions?

[||bit]

A simple automated script, hosted with LR's website could be made that isn't terribly complicated. One possible algorithm is to do this:

1. Website server receives seller messages from LR webpage (basic input text boxes that get submitted to server side script).
2. Script verifies messages from seller.
3. If verified, script verifies seller actually has bonds and sufficient quantity per some official copy of the ledger.
4. If verified, website market page is updated to reflect sellers quantity and ask price for market to see. *
5. Buyer see's price and clicks seller price. Immediately, that sell order is removed from the cue to avoid duplicate orders. Anyone subsequently clicking with a then stale webpage will simply get no record found.
6. Buyer is presented input options and submits message to purchase (including wallet address which the verified message depends upon - that is his account number - and also an optional wallet address for receiving dividends).
7. Script verifies buyer sent sufficient btc as per the blockchain (within say 1 hours and maybe at least 3 confirmations). If not received, then there is a problem on how to clear this...this could cause problems.
8. If verified, deduct quantity from seller account and add to buyers account (if that account already exists) on bond ledger. If buyers account does not yet exist, create one now and add to ledger with bought quantity.

* A couple other aspects need to be included. Such as allowing seller to cancel order. And making sure old messages are deleted to avoid an order being executed twice.

Note: Because there is no online buyers wallet involved that a seller can tap into without further buyer action,  this is a seller's market page.

...

[Lab_Rat]

Just wanted to clear things up... The 2 weeks of mining is not "funding the ASIC project" only a small portion of it is being used in such sense.  LRM is not funding this entire project, but a small percentage in return for HW at a far lower cost than is possible elsewhere.

The bulk of it is going toward a deal with BitFury that is in the works, and this is going to provide many many many multiples of the current in hand hashrate.

[vitruvio]

A simple automated script, hosted with LR's website could be made that isn't terribly complicated. One possible algorithm is to do this:

1. Website server receives seller messages from LR webpage (basic input text boxes that get submitted to server side script).
2. Script verifies messages from seller.
3. If verified, script verifies seller actually has bonds and sufficient quantity per some official copy of the ledger.
4. If verified, website market page is updated to reflect sellers quantity and ask price for market to see. *
5. Buyer see's price and clicks seller price. Immediately, that sell order is removed from the cue to avoid duplicate orders. Anyone subsequently clicking with a then stale webpage will simply get no record found.
6. Buyer is presented input options and submits message to purchase (including wallet address which the verified message depends upon - that is his account number - and also an optional wallet address for receiving dividends).
7. Script verifies buyer sent sufficient btc as per the blockchain (within say 1 hours and maybe at least 3 confirmations). If not received, then there is a problem on how to clear this...this could cause problems.
8. If verified, deduct quantity from seller account and add to buyers account (if that account already exists) on bond ledger. If buyers account does not yet exist, create one now and add to ledger with bought quantity.

* A couple other aspects need to be included. Such as allowing seller to cancel order. And making sure old messages are deleted to avoid an order being executed twice.

Note: Because there is no online buyers wallet involved that a seller can tap into without further buyer action,  this is a seller's market page.

...

I'm coder and was thinking to the simplest way to do that, and thought about a system in which the user was the btc address, address that LRM have with amount of shares owned. All can be public no login needed, a simple form to sell or buy, to sell a form with quantity, price and address, then the system genate a string with the operation, the same as we sign when operate with grnbrg, you must sign with your btc client and paste the signature, if signature is correct the operation is saved and this number of shares blocked (scrow).

I haven't thought too much the whole procedure, but must control how to add new users (addresses) , the buy offer procedure the same as sale, but how to control the payment? If the system is connected to a bitcoin client and wallet it can generate new addresses to receive the payment and then change the shares owner in system and retransfer the amount of sale to seller. If no btc client, maybe can monitorize blockchain to watch if seller's address receives an incoming transfer with same amount of sale (less secure).

To be simple you must buy or sell full offers, click a ask or bid and make the process, if you want to make a real stock exchange system with portions is more complicated.  

There is no such volume and market speed that you can't contact the seller to modify his amount of ask, or maybe you can make a bid and the seller delete his ask and click in your  bid.

This way is more anonymous and faster, no login, no mail account.

 Regards

[Lab_Rat]

A simple automated script, hosted with LR's website could be made that isn't terribly complicated. One possible algorithm is to do this:

1. Website server receives seller messages from LR webpage (basic input text boxes that get submitted to server side script).
2. Script verifies messages from seller.
3. If verified, script verifies seller actually has bonds and sufficient quantity per some official copy of the ledger.
4. If verified, website market page is updated to reflect sellers quantity and ask price for market to see. *
5. Buyer see's price and clicks seller price. Immediately, that sell order is removed from the cue to avoid duplicate orders. Anyone subsequently clicking with a then stale webpage will simply get no record found.
6. Buyer is presented input options and submits message to purchase (including wallet address which the verified message depends upon - that is his account number - and also an optional wallet address for receiving dividends).
7. Script verifies buyer sent sufficient btc as per the blockchain (within say 1 hours and maybe at least 3 confirmations). If not received, then there is a problem on how to clear this...this could cause problems.
8. If verified, deduct quantity from seller account and add to buyers account (if that account already exists) on bond ledger. If buyers account does not yet exist, create one now and add to ledger with bought quantity.

* A couple other aspects need to be included. Such as allowing seller to cancel order. And making sure old messages are deleted to avoid an order being executed twice.

Note: Because there is no online buyers wallet involved that a seller can tap into without further buyer action,  this is a seller's market page.

...

Orbit that is the method I was looking into, I'm still verifying the legality of that before implementing it.

Vitruvio, I can't have an escrow wallet involved or it makes LRM a money transmitter.

[mufa23]

Just wanted to clear things up... The 2 weeks of mining is not "funding the ASIC project" only a small portion of it is being used in such sense.  LRM is not funding this entire project, but a small percentage in return for HW at a far lower cost than is possible elsewhere.

The bulk of it is going toward a deal with BitFury that is in the works, and this is going to provide many many many multiples of the current in hand hashrate.

Woohoo!