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 Author Topic: [ANN] profit switching auto-exchanging pool - www.middlecoin.com  (Read 809784 times)
mueslo
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 August 22, 2013, 07:01:40 PMLast edit: August 23, 2013, 02:54:02 PM by mueslo

For each number of sample size, I run one instance of the simulation. Each one represents 1 block of a coin.

I generate a solve time for that block. Our constant variable is the block solve time, which represents an average. I generate a random number between 1/2 of it, and 1.5x of it, this is the solve time for this particular block. Remember, by the very definition of the word average, future values will be evenly balanced across both sides.

You just don't get it, do you? This is precisely what's wrong, as we've pointed it out over and over again. If you want to use solve times, you have to use those for a Poisson process. Writing a simulation that utilises the results of this wrong distribution.

Edit:
This would be a better example of how it works. Maybe it'll make you understand it better. Note the complete lack of independence from block find time, even in the source.

Code:
import random
import numpy as np

class worker():
def __init__(self,hashrate):
self.hashrate = hashrate
self.sharesolvetime = 60. / hashrate
self.solvechance = 1/self.sharesolvetime #solve chance per unit time
self.shares = 0

class pool():
def __init__(self,blockfindtime):
self.blockfindtime = blockfindtime

worker1 = worker(1)
worker2 = worker(12)

duration = 10000 #the higher the better
timestep = 0.001 #should be as low as posible,
# worker1.solvechance*timestep must be as close to zero as possible
# to be factually accurate

for bft in np.logspace(0.1,3,5):
pool1=pool(bft)
for t in np.linspace(0,duration,duration/timestep + 1):
rand = random.uniform(0,1)
rand2 = random.uniform(0,1)
if rand<(worker1.solvechance*timestep):
worker1.shares+=1
if rand2<(worker2.solvechance*timestep):
worker2.shares+=1

print "Worker 1 has: " + str((float(worker1.hashrate) / float(worker2.hashrate + worker1.hashrate)) * 100) + ' percent of the hash power'
print "But worker 1 has: " + str((float(worker1.shares) / float(worker2.shares + worker1.shares)) * 100) + ' percent of the profit'
print "When worker1's average share-find-speed was: " + str((float(pool1.blockfindtime) / float(worker1.sharesolvetime))) + "x Block find speed"
print "Over sample size of " + str(duration/timestep+1) + " steps \n"
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Damnsammit
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 August 22, 2013, 07:12:53 PM

You really gotta give him props though.  He is going through great lengths to try to persuade others to believe his way of thinking... even though, as many have pointed out, it's simply incorrect.
h2odysee
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 August 22, 2013, 07:27:52 PM

A lot of people aren't satisfied with theoretical equations. So I created a simulation. I wrote a script in python...

Thanks liquidfire, for your simulation. Good idea. It's the next best thing to me actually making the change in my pool, to test it out.

There is a problem with it though. Block solve times, and share solve times, are not between 0.5 and 1.5 of their average. Nor are they uniformly distributed. They are between 0 and infinity, and some kind of inverse square distribution maybe.

I believe that bug is what's producing your results, showing that slow miners are disadvantaged. Because if a share cannot be solved in 0.5, and a block comes before then, then his work is wasted.

http://middlecoin.com - profit-switching, auto-exchanging scrypt pool that pays out in BTC
h2odysee
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 August 22, 2013, 07:34:57 PM

What solution is there for a backup/failover pool for a multi-coin pool such as this? Cgminer explicitly states that mixing blockchains is a no-no, so setting a LTC pool (or similar) as backup won't work.

My intuition is that mixing blockchains is only a problem if you're using the --load-balance option. But I don't really know. If anyone has success with a backup pool, and knows for sure that it doesn't cause extra "detected new block" for the primary pool, let us know.

http://middlecoin.com - profit-switching, auto-exchanging scrypt pool that pays out in BTC
c1010010
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 August 22, 2013, 07:36:41 PM

YOU TOO CAN BE A MILLIONAIRE – INFINITECOIN Infinite possibilities – http://infinitecointalk.org
Kuroth
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 August 22, 2013, 07:53:55 PM

Cryptsy added a new cool feature for auto selling deposited coins : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246679.680

So now you can add a switching coin profile based on profitability in cgwatcher-> manage your desired coins for mining-> start mining and switching coins based on your chosen  profitabilituy->forward the coin's wallet at the pool you're mining at to cryptsy at your comfortable threshold->select the auto sell feature at cryptsy deposit address -> coins get auto deposited and auto sold out-> collect BTC.

But I think easier said than done..  I don’t mind paying the 3% to NOT have to manage all that myself..  But then again, I am lazy that way..

Liquidfire
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 August 22, 2013, 07:56:25 PMLast edit: August 22, 2013, 08:08:28 PM by Liquidfire

A lot of people aren't satisfied with theoretical equations. So I created a simulation. I wrote a script in python...

Thanks liquidfire, for your simulation. Good idea. It's the next best thing to me actually making the change in my pool, to test it out.

There is a problem with it though. Block solve times, and share solve times, are not between 0.5 and 1.5 of their average. Nor are they uniformly distributed. They are between 0 and infinity, and some kind of inverse square distribution maybe.

I believe that bug is what's producing your results, showing that slow miners are disadvantaged. Because if a share cannot be solved in 0.5, and a block comes before then, then his work is wasted.

You are absolutely correct, that they are not between 0.5 and 1.5. But if i did between 0.25, and 1.75, 0.1 and 1.9, etc i'd get the same results long-term. And so on and so forth.

Accounting for the infinite right edge would be very, very difficult (not impossible) to simulate. In the end, it doesn't matter... because if I did, all that would do would shift the average somewhat to the right. But, the same thing would happen to the block time as well. They cancel each other out. At that point I am dealing with a different average. It doesn't matter what the average is that you use, the effect will still be there.

I am sure someone smarter than me can replace that small part of the code with a formula to simulate the real range. Its beyond my math knowledge. But know I am aware it is a flaw. I am almost certain the result would be very very similar if you did simulate that. I will attempt to do some research and see if I can figure it out. If i can, I'll re-run the simulations and see what happens. If anyone knows the right distribution for this, I can certainly convert it to python. H20 might be onto something about the inverse square distribution.

Again, I am picking arbitrary numbers to be the average. It doesn't matter what I pick. the point is the relationship between the two workers.

The block find time, and the share find time of the miner are going to be equally effected by any changes to the calculation of the times.
captainfuture
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 August 22, 2013, 07:56:48 PM

i am happy to not checking all the pools everyday if they working right.
captainfuture
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 August 22, 2013, 07:58:33 PM

Could u guys plz make a thread with this difficulty thing? i cant read it anymore.

plz.

its interesting, but its worth an own thread.
h2odysee
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 August 22, 2013, 08:02:24 PM

Could u guys plz make a thread with this difficulty thing? i cant read it anymore.

plz.

its interesting, but its worth an own thread.

No more difficulty discussions here.

http://middlecoin.com - profit-switching, auto-exchanging scrypt pool that pays out in BTC
Kuroth
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 August 22, 2013, 08:31:44 PM

Could u guys plz make a thread with this difficulty thing? i cant read it anymore.

plz.

its interesting, but its worth an own thread.

No more difficulty discussions here.

THANK GOD...

FlungSpun
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 August 22, 2013, 08:38:41 PM

So anyway .. I got one of my cards back from RMA replacement today and middlecoin seems to be going pretty well
gogo 7970s
Destiffmast
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 August 22, 2013, 09:49:00 PM

Hello,

I have pointed 3 cards at this pool total of 1400kh/s, but I am not so sure if I am mining anything or not.

I see accepted OCL 0 or 1 or 2 but the diff always shows 0/0 is that normal?

Can the pool owner verify for me I am mining - username -1Afv29gzpRE1YaqiymCNYDdPedHWTkht99

Any info much appreciated guys.
FlungSpun
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 August 22, 2013, 09:51:43 PM

your addy is showing and hash rate for last hour is on its way up so looks OK for starters.

Destiffmast
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 August 22, 2013, 09:54:33 PM

Thanks for letting me know, glad it's doing the job
captainfuture
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 August 22, 2013, 10:28:43 PM

i think we have reached the 1 GH now.
FlungSpun
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 August 22, 2013, 10:34:02 PM

992.2232 .. oooh just one more refresh
STT
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 August 22, 2013, 11:37:08 PM

Seems a pretty decent run today

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 August 23, 2013, 12:12:13 AM

Could u guys plz make a thread with this difficulty thing? i cant read it anymore.

plz.

its interesting, but its worth an own thread.

No more difficulty discussions here.

CLAP CLAP CLAP
xreichardx
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 August 23, 2013, 12:28:45 AM

Whooo-hoo!   A great day mining on this pool AND no more talk about difficulty!   Win-Win!
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