Analysis

[notme]

12. Conclusion
We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust. We started with
the usual framework of coins made from digital signatures, which provides strong control of
ownership, but is incomplete without a way to prevent double-spending. To solve this, we
proposed a peer-to-peer network using proof-of-work to record a public history of transactions
that quickly becomes computationally impractical for an attacker to change if honest nodes
control a majority of CPU power. The network is robust in its unstructured simplicity. Nodes
work all at once with little coordination. They do not need to be identified, since messages are
not routed to any particular place and only need to be delivered on a best effort basis. Nodes can
leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the proof-of-work chain as proof of what
happened while they were gone. They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of
valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on
them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism.

I don't know what you guys want, but it isn't Satoshi's Bitcoin.

There's a reason why 'Satoshi' dissapeared.
I am Satoshi. You are Satoshi. We are all Satoshi. Thats the whole idea about bitcoin right? decentralisation. If there is/was one founder, and one founder only and he would reveal himself it would harm the decentralisation process. Nobody rules bitcoin.

You're right that nobody rules it.  However, majority hashing power is by definition Bitcoin.  If you reject that premise the whole thing falls apart.

[RoadTrain]

I don't know what you guys want, but it isn't Satoshi's Bitcoin.

Errm, we all read the whitepaper. What is your point in quoting it?

You're right that nobody rules it.  However, majority hashing power is by definition Bitcoin.  If you reject that premise the whole thing falls apart.

What is your point? I don't get it. Yes, majority hashing power decides which valid chain to build upon. Is anyone challenging that?

[Bimmerhead]

Well this thread is completely off the rails.

Is Luc ever coming back here, or is the VK page now his only home?

[RoadTrain]

Any new information on bitcoin price development from Masterluc? Even in russian, if possible.

This thread just turned into mining debate, that has little to do with weekly price analysis. Not that it is not important, but more long term, than what we came for here originally. Technical analysis.

Thanks guys.

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga?w=wall-130254204_976

"If we reach $1118, the bull wedge I described on March 25th goes into force. This, along with mentioned daily divergences, can send us towards ATH ($1200-1300). No higher, I think atm. Maybe it will start to draw some big triangle."

The wedge he mentions is described here: https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga?w=wall-130254204_917

[gijoes]

Why is it that any damn thread turns into a BU freakshow discussion lately? Out with you and all your crazy BU talk! It's the place of worship, for Master's sake! Shoo! Begone!

[notme]

I don't know what you guys want, but it isn't Satoshi's Bitcoin.

Errm, we all read the whitepaper. What is your point in quoting it?

You're right that nobody rules it.  However, majority hashing power is by definition Bitcoin.  If you reject that premise the whole thing falls apart.

What is your point? I don't get it. Yes, majority hashing power decides which valid chain to build upon. Is anyone challenging that?

Yes, my initial reply in this chain was to this:

So what? Segwit would already be active by then.
And the whole world would have witnessed that the protocol can be changed by the economic majority, without miner-consensus.

This brand of stupidity is rampant around here.  You may have read the whitepaper, but clearly there are quite a few very loud voices who have not.

That said, there are plenty of other threads for this discussion.  We should leave this thread to the cult of Master Luc, even if he has abandoned them.

[Miz4r]

12. Conclusion
We have proposed a system for electronic transactions without relying on trust. We started with
the usual framework of coins made from digital signatures, which provides strong control of
ownership, but is incomplete without a way to prevent double-spending. To solve this, we
proposed a peer-to-peer network using proof-of-work to record a public history of transactions
that quickly becomes computationally impractical for an attacker to change if honest nodes
control a majority of CPU power. The network is robust in its unstructured simplicity. Nodes
work all at once with little coordination. They do not need to be identified, since messages are
not routed to any particular place and only need to be delivered on a best effort basis. Nodes can
leave and rejoin the network at will, accepting the proof-of-work chain as proof of what
happened while they were gone. They vote with their CPU power, expressing their acceptance of
valid blocks by working on extending them and rejecting invalid blocks by refusing to work on
them. Any needed rules and incentives can be enforced with this consensus mechanism.

I don't know what you guys want, but it isn't Satoshi's Bitcoin.

CPU power? Honest nodes? Reject invalid blocks?

Ok so BU invalid blocks should be rejected by the honest nodes. Satoshi thanks for you insight, your will is our command.

[Okurkabinladin]

Well this thread is completely off the rails.

Is Luc ever coming back here, or is the VK page now his only home?

That doesnt matter all that much. As long as he makes his analysis public on VK, here, we can have discussion about it in english language. From his point of view, it is understandable, that he doesnt expend more energy than necessary. He is not dead, though. Just writing in russian all the time now 

[Okurkabinladin]

Any new information on bitcoin price development from Masterluc? Even in russian, if possible.

This thread just turned into mining debate, that has little to do with weekly price analysis. Not that it is not important, but more long term, than what we came for here originally. Technical analysis.

Thanks guys.

https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga?w=wall-130254204_976

"If we reach $1118, the bull wedge I described on March 25th goes into force. This, along with mentioned daily divergences, can send us towards ATH ($1200-1300). No higher, I think atm. Maybe it will start to draw some big triangle."

The wedge he mentions is described here: https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga?w=wall-130254204_917

Thank you.

He basically predicts, that we will be moving between 1000 and 1300 for the following months. Possibly breaking towards new all time high in autumn. On another thread, Afrikoin persists on revisiting 800 before then.

Back in 2013, we also spend months moving between 100-130 before market capitulation at 85 and subsequent spike towards ATH at 1000 towards the end of the year. We might be for grand second round of that.

[gijoes]

What, with all that drama no one follows a level-headed analysis by lucif any longer?

BTC followed perfectly both bullish wedge and bullish divergences, as I predicted before.

What may come next? Wave structure suggests a completing diagonal turning into a bearish wedge peaking around 1500. After that, a retest of 1000 level is quite possible.

Source: https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[hawkins]

What, with all that drama no one follows a level-headed analysis by lucif any longer?

BTC followed perfectly both bullish wedge and bullish divergences, as I predicted before.

What may come next? Wave structure suggests a completing diagonal turning into a bearish wedge peaking around 1500. After that, a retest of 1000 level is quite possible.

Source: https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

Well, if you look at bitcoin statistics, the price always increases in a few years. Can be said this is a very fast development, because in just 7 years, bitcoin prices are very high, this will probably continue to grow in the next few years.

[zimmah]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

[york780]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

True.
Look what happened with the Roman empire, or Apple.
If you dont move foward, you will go backward.
There's no middleground in crypto.
Look like Tether ;-)

Dash isnt a real threat yet, because its quite scammy.
Ether is a platform with to many tokens to be a good investment like BTC is.
Its also to much centralized.
Most important difference between BTC and Ether:

BTC = community
Ethereum = Vitalik Buterin

The only one who could destroy Bitcoin is Bitcoin itself (community)
Just like the Roman Empire.
The parallels are amazing.
History is made rightnow.

[azguard]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

True.
Look what happened with the Roman empire, or Apple.
If you dont move foward, you will go backward.
There's no middleground in crypto.
Look like Tether ;-)

Dash isnt a real threat yet, because its quite scammy.
Ether is a platform with to many tokens to be a good investment like BTC is.
Its also to much centralized.
Most important difference between BTC and Ether:

BTC = community
Ethereum = Vitalik Buterin

The only one who could destroy Bitcoin is Bitcoin itself (community)
Just like the Roman Empire.
The parallels are amazing.
History is made rightnow.

Yes but we wont let it be destroyed like roman empire right 

I mean as a community we wont let this happen in any way, like some of your impressions on some coin and think that also what yous dais is accurate only we can destroy it.

[AjithBtc]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

True.
Look what happened with the Roman empire, or Apple.
If you dont move foward, you will go backward.
There's no middleground in crypto.
Look like Tether ;-)

Dash isnt a real threat yet, because its quite scammy.
Ether is a platform with to many tokens to be a good investment like BTC is.
Its also to much centralized.
Most important difference between BTC and Ether:

BTC = community
Ethereum = Vitalik Buterin

The only one who could destroy Bitcoin is Bitcoin itself (community)
Just like the Roman Empire.
The parallels are amazing.
History is made rightnow.

Bitcoin has got the strong user base, so it won't be let down soon as most users have known better about all its importance and the advantages it provide to all of its users. The bitcoin community is getting stronger and stronger, though several other crypts were getting into usage with varying features and goals.

[Cherylstar86]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

True.
Look what happened with the Roman empire, or Apple.
If you dont move foward, you will go backward.
There's no middleground in crypto.
Look like Tether ;-)

Dash isnt a real threat yet, because its quite scammy.
Ether is a platform with to many tokens to be a good investment like BTC is.
Its also to much centralized.
Most important difference between BTC and Ether:

BTC = community
Ethereum = Vitalik Buterin

The only one who could destroy Bitcoin is Bitcoin itself (community)
Just like the Roman Empire.
The parallels are amazing.
History is made rightnow.

Bitcoin has got the strong user base, so it won't be let down soon as most users have known better about all its importance and the advantages it provide to all of its users. The bitcoin community is getting stronger and stronger, though several other crypts were getting into usage with varying features and goals.

There it goes to the whole world and digital currency is now growing well to the users who entrusted their future in bitcoin. Yeah it's now a reality that comes from a dreams of lots of us who hopes for better bitcoin future that we always wanted for our family. With these analysis more positive thoughts will be coming our way here and it will not change for a long time as long as digital currency still be patronized by people.

[york780]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

True.
Look what happened with the Roman empire, or Apple.
If you dont move foward, you will go backward.
There's no middleground in crypto.
Look like Tether ;-)

Dash isnt a real threat yet, because its quite scammy.
Ether is a platform with to many tokens to be a good investment like BTC is.
Its also to much centralized.
Most important difference between BTC and Ether:

BTC = community
Ethereum = Vitalik Buterin

The only one who could destroy Bitcoin is Bitcoin itself (community)
Just like the Roman Empire.
The parallels are amazing.
History is made rightnow.

Yes but we wont let it be destroyed like roman empire right 

I mean as a community we wont let this happen in any way, like some of your impressions on some coin and think that also what yous dais is accurate only we can destroy it.

No I dont think that either.

Anyway its still the current situation rightnow in cryptoworld.

We have some medium-large 'clans' that try to battle Bitcoin.

(Ripple(bankcoin), Ethereum(hedge), Dash, monero, and I could go on for a while but my point is made.

They are not united but still they are some coins to keep an eye out for.
A strong Roman Empire , united and working together could easily maintain their lands ( marketdominance).
But when they are backstabbing eachother (Ceasar) and fighting eachother and stop being innovative (scaling) the other clans like the germans did (altcoins) will invade the once mighty Roman Empire united with other small clans from all over Europe.

Borders will fall, the Roman Empire will burn because of indecision and bad financial leadership (postponing a scaling solution for years).

The Roman Empire made a last stand at the borders of Italy. The dream was gone, their dream was destroyed.
Will BTC unite behind 1 solution to maintain its ground?
Or will it burn and make a last stand when its too late?

Only time can tell, but this parralel is simply amazing.

[Globb0]

The only thing bitcoin has going for it right now is the brand name and the network effect. It has been riding on that for about 2 years. How long do you think it will be able to last?

Looks like that if we are very lucky it will go the way of IBM:
http://prnt.sc/ep7ib8

But my guess is that the idiots led by saboteurs will utterly destroy it and it will become just another old failed cryptocoin.

Intersting theory,but crypto is booming Bitcoin is still the biggest by far. It has the biggest community by far, huge mining farms, worldwide attention, investors have discovered it. It has the worldwide press on it, and adoption is still increasing. So Bitcoin will continue to grrow for a while if you ask me. Its the mother of crypto. If bitcoin fails, it is most likely that 80% of the altcoins are going with it.

95% of the altcoins will fail regardless of what bitcoin does, it's those 5% you need to watch out for.   

ETH is already 1/4th of the value of bitcoin. Dash is also a large contender.

Bitcoin is not invincible, and they should not act like they are.

I think this is true.

But does it even matter if another coin is of the same value? its surely not the end of bitcoin.

It will just be a different way people making a service will have to pin their colours to a mast.

Users will have to decide in the end.

[oda.krell]

^*

a) people are hedging or diversifying -- no matter which side you're on, btc development has an unresolved problem finding some (high level) decision making process that doesn't involve different sides bitch slapping each other until one of them caves in. b) people like to trade on volatility. alts certainly are attractive for that, precisely because of their lower capitalization and higher trading-to-usage ratio.

Cause a) won't go away, and it shouldn't. The size of that effect depends on the path the main crypto takes -- in my opinion, not /which/ path is taken, but /how/ the decision is made. b) contains a negative feedback component, i.e. it is self-stabilizing: as capitalization increases, volatility decreases, making (volatility) trading less attractive.

The current numbers: btc to next highest alt currently at ~4.5:1; btc vs. total of all alts combined above 2:1.

Let's take two other examples of 'network effects' (in a loose, maybe unrelated sense. it's the best I got): Google search share fluctuated over the past years, but was at 60-something percent 2-3 years ago. I don't recall thinking Google would lose its pole position. US military spending accounts for 37% of the world's total. There's little doubt where US military capacity stands in relation to 'the rest'.

I don't have a fixed ratio in mind that would make me conclude the picture fundamentally changed (aside from parity with a single other coin (edit), but by then, it'd be rather late). However, 80/20% vs the next highest, 66/33% vs all, doesn't mean anything yet, in my opinion, only that a) alts are there to stay (deal with it *sunglasses*), and b) our little market is growing up.

[Gillette]

You think it would be more profitable than mining ETH?  We have to assume that ETH will continue going up as BTC goes down due to this HF as has been the case.

wpalczynski are you still kissing the black ass of Africoin to receive his 100% correct amylases?