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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919465 times)
Odalv
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November 04, 2015, 07:32:20 AM
 #4101

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)
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Eivind Nag
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November 04, 2015, 07:57:46 AM
 #4102

Bullish count:
http://i.imgur.com/dsglVWT.jpg

But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...
Asrael999
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November 04, 2015, 08:11:13 AM
 #4103

Market is so overbought that there is not much bids left... Yet China continues buying.

chinese household holdings (20 trillion usd) + capital controls = do the math (if only 1% trickles down into bitcoin)

be very very scared though when they decide to all go the other way.
ft73
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November 04, 2015, 08:12:28 AM
 #4104

Eagerly waiting for Masterluc thoughts ...
SmoothCurves
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November 04, 2015, 08:54:31 AM
 #4105

Bullish count:


But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

What price is 5 ?
ft73
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November 04, 2015, 08:56:13 AM
 #4106

Bullish count:


But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

What price is 5 ?

Not high enough?
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November 04, 2015, 09:24:41 AM
 #4107

Bullish count:
http://i.imgur.com/dsglVWT.jpg

But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

What price is 5 ?

10K at least. price is on a log scale.

Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
Asrael999
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November 04, 2015, 09:41:24 AM
 #4108

Bullish count:
http://i.imgur.com/dsglVWT.jpg

But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

What price is 5 ?

10K at least. price is on a log scale.
Timing looks like 2017?
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November 04, 2015, 09:51:27 AM
 #4109

Bullish count:
http://i.imgur.com/dsglVWT.jpg

But as always, for every bullish count there is an equally bearish one...

What price is 5 ?

10K at least. price is on a log scale.
Timing looks like 2017?

It took ~4 years+- to reach 1163 (I). Probably looking at same timeframe or more to reach III. But all of this assumes that we are actually in a new Bull market. I would be cautious to mortgage your house to buy bitcoin. Although this rally is quite convincing its also what you might expect as a counter trend rally. What this rally has got going for it is the rather good volume. What is going against it is the bipolar world of central bank reflation on an even stronger deflationary backdrop.   
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November 04, 2015, 11:37:33 AM
 #4110

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp. I'd much rather have seen a more slow ramp up, because this is gonna crash hard very soon. Nice if you made mad profits though, but not so good for BTC I think when the inevitable crash comes. Wouldn't be surprised to see 200s again, it never ends well when the chart looks like this. Retracements and consolidation periods are important to establish support, there is none now until way down into the 200s.

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ft73
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November 04, 2015, 11:54:01 AM
 #4111

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.

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November 04, 2015, 11:57:41 AM
 #4112

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.



The order books are empty. Btc price is floating and Nobody dares to move besides the few pumpers.

At this point you gotta be crazy shorting or going long.

Question is a which threshold people will realise their profit.

Greed is King now.
ft73
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November 04, 2015, 12:04:07 PM
 #4113

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.



The order books are empty. Btc price is floating and Nobody dares to move besides the few pumpers.

At this point you gotta be crazy shorting or going long.

Question is a which threshold people will realise their profit.


Greed is King now.

Not sure what you mean by writing "The order books are empty" and "few pumpers".
I'd say on the contrary we have A LOT of trades and volatility.
Price moved up 17% in 12h, 24% on 24h.

I'm no bear nor bull, just an observer struggling to find the sweet spot to close his long trades.
So far i can't see any reliable signals.

EDIT: Question is: will Chinese break 3200 CNY or not? At the moment i have no clue.



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November 04, 2015, 12:10:10 PM
Last edit: November 04, 2015, 12:27:29 PM by Tzupy
 #4114

Well, I took a small short at 475$, let's see how this goes...

Edit: didn't confirm, so I closed it. Will wait until 3 min MACD will cross to negative, should take 1 - 2 hours.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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November 04, 2015, 12:11:04 PM
 #4115


Not sure what you mean by writing "The order books are empty" and "few pumpers".
I'd say on the contrary we have A LOT of trades and volatility.
Price moved up 17% in 12h, 24% on 24h.

I'm no bear nor bull, just an observer struggling to find the sweet spot to close his long trades.
So far i can't see any reliable signals.


I believe that is what whales with big pockets are counting on:  People who "... find the sweet spot to close his long trades."  Big money has the patience to wait.  They will keep taking this up [Giving opportunities for people to sell at so called sweet spots].  They will be sitting sweet in 2017/2018.  I believe big pockets have decided to jump in now rather than wait until sometime after the new year to accumulate coin.  

This may also be a scheme to pump up to over $2k by May, 2016 and dump to $1.2k.

Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/ProwdClown/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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November 04, 2015, 12:33:30 PM
 #4116

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.

Nobody knows how high this will spike, but you can clearly see the ramp up has been accelerating and if you extrapolate this you can state with 99% certainty that a serious crash/correction is coming within 2-3 days from now (my guess is either today or tomorrow). I'm not a bear like some people are, I think we'll be higher than we are now next year. But very short term we can clearly see that a big crash is coming, and the higher we spike the deeper the following crash will be.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
ft73
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November 04, 2015, 12:43:57 PM
 #4117

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.

Nobody knows how high this will spike, but you can clearly see the ramp up has been accelerating and if you extrapolate this you can state with 99% certainty that a serious crash/correction is coming within 2-3 days from now (my guess is either today or tomorrow). I'm not a bear like some people are, I think we'll be higher than we are now next year. But very short term we can clearly see that a big crash is coming, and the higher we spike the deeper the following crash will be.

I absolutely agree about a correction coming within 2 days (i'd say tomorrow or friday).
The point IMHO is how high price may spike up in the meantime.

China just broke 3200 CNY, so 500$ is in the charts and 550-600$ is not out question IMHO, even if that's NOT the most probable scenario.
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November 04, 2015, 01:09:04 PM
 #4118

Lucif, have you re bought or do you missed the train ? :-)

What do you think? You'd be crazy to rebuy here if you sold earlier, unless it's for a quick scalp.

Probably you're right, this looks a somewhat irrational rise.
Yet if what we have here is a true bubble it may pop soon or it may spike up noticeably from here.

Nobody knows how high this will spike, but you can clearly see the ramp up has been accelerating and if you extrapolate this you can state with 99% certainty that a serious crash/correction is coming within 2-3 days from now (my guess is either today or tomorrow). I'm not a bear like some people are, I think we'll be higher than we are now next year. But very short term we can clearly see that a big crash is coming, and the higher we spike the deeper the following crash will be.

Didn't we just crashed to USD 375 from USD 420, that's not big enough?

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Dilla
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November 04, 2015, 01:14:05 PM
 #4119

Depending on the size of this bubble, there could be more instances like that, where we correct then rise, maybe even of greater amounts.
ft73
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November 04, 2015, 01:16:31 PM
 #4120

Masterluc?
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