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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 926093 times)
Wekkel
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February 05, 2018, 09:52:07 PM
 #5861

Apparently there was much more air in the price than suspected, but it ain’t over yet. Prices never move in straight lines, and the Weekly chart is in some serious oversold territory  Roll Eyes

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February 05, 2018, 09:57:56 PM
 #5862

Apparently there was much more air in the price than suspected, but it ain’t over yet. Prices never move in straight lines, and the Weekly chart is in some serious oversold territory  Roll Eyes

Weekly in serious oversold territory? I don't think so, not yet anyway. Weekly was IMO oversold only from October 2014 to January 2015.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Bitcoinaire
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February 05, 2018, 10:32:37 PM
 #5863

The latest:

"Trump changed his granny. Grandma farewelled the American stock market bubble and then turn everything around ...

Wall Street drags down Bitcoin heavily. We observe what will happen from this."





https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
MrBigHang
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February 06, 2018, 12:10:31 AM
 #5864

Quote
I really do not know where to fall further. There's a wild support. Weekly MA20, daytime MA200, Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of all annual growth, historical trend lines ... In general, all this should bounce off. When drains

let you go ... Here you are, the merchant traders. The reverse side of the ETF is yours. Let them do it .... I expected a general decrease in volatility when all this was beginning to be predicted. And it is - that's what it is Mihalych.

New post.  He doesn't know how low we can go.  Also, if someone is good with Russian, I'd like a better translation.  Direct translation can be iffy.
Biodom
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February 06, 2018, 03:49:06 AM
Merited by Bitcoinaire (2), Wekkel (1)
 #5865

Quote
I really do not know where to fall further. There's a wild support. Weekly MA20, daytime MA200, Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of all annual growth, historical trend lines ... In general, all this should bounce off. When drains

let you go ... Here you are, the merchant traders. The reverse side of the ETF is yours. Let them do it .... I expected a general decrease in volatility when all this was beginning to be predicted. And it is - that's what it is Mihalych.

New post.  He doesn't know how low we can go.  Also, if someone is good with Russian, I'd like a better translation.  Direct translation can be iffy.

This thread just became mostly irrelevant anyway.
#1 he was wrong, at least tactically
#2 see #1
#3 that post has no relevant info, hence, don't worry about translation. He basically says that everything got broken.
$4 the key is not in this post, but in the other post/comment where he says that so much damage was done that it would take loooong time to repair.

My conclusion: We are in the bear market of unknown duration, structure, etc. As i said before, maybe it is similar to Amazon or AAPL from 1999-2001 (AMZN) or 2002 (AAPL). Survive a year or a couple of years of pure brutality, then enjoy yourself for the next 20. That's how I intend to play it.
Bitcoinaire
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February 06, 2018, 05:25:34 AM
 #5866

Here he answers in the comments:

"Q: Bitcoin Vanga., That is, after all, bearish trend for a couple of years as in 2014?

A: Paul, yes, I think some kind of huita. For a long time we will recover from the shock."

mike4001
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February 06, 2018, 05:45:41 AM
 #5867

Wasn't he the guy who said a couple of days ago we would never see 4 digits again ..

lol
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February 06, 2018, 08:48:45 AM
 #5868

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before. Tongue

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter. Grin

This will go down in history as one of the most outstanding moments in crypto market, where the mighty falls dragging on its quests. If and when this market recovers, the market should prepare for a more bullish trend especially from new adopters.

However, like its commonly said 'brace for impact' as it would seem BTC hasn't touch down yet.

Globb0
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February 06, 2018, 11:49:04 AM
 #5869

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before. Tongue

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter. Grin

This will go down in history as one of the most outstanding moments in crypto market, where the mighty falls dragging on its quests. If and when this market recovers, the market should prepare for a more bullish trend especially from new adopters.

However, like its commonly said 'brace for impact' as it would seem BTC hasn't touch down yet.

Like with all analysis maybe the doom of this was in the number of people beginning to follow and believe in it. Makes for an easy target for manipulators. Poor sheeple.

Yie Ar Kung-Fu
Mhz_evadah
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February 06, 2018, 12:25:19 PM
 #5870

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before. Tongue

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter. Grin

This will go down in history as one of the most outstanding moments in crypto market, where the mighty falls dragging on its quests. If and when this market recovers, the market should prepare for a more bullish trend especially from new adopters.

However, like its commonly said 'brace for impact' as it would seem BTC hasn't touch down yet.

Like with all analysis maybe the doom of this was in the number of people beginning to follow and believe in it. Makes for an easy target for manipulators. Poor sheeple.

I guess it is safe to say we are way to soon and yet far from mass adoption. If people joining the cryptocurrency train on the basis of pseudo believe, can have this much negative impact on the integrity of blockchain enterprise (cryptocurrency included) as a whole, then we may as well not be ready for this roller coaster trip of price fluctuation.

Millionero
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February 06, 2018, 07:21:27 PM
 #5871


Enky has a tweet calling support at 3900-5300
https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Trading

Wekkel
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February 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), 600watt (1), fabiorem (1)
 #5872

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes


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uslfd
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February 06, 2018, 08:49:17 PM
 #5873

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes



Exactly. The move to below $7K might not be that significant.... even if ML is wrong by missing one more leg down, it's not the end of the world. No one could be right 100% of the time.

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Bitcoinaire
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February 06, 2018, 09:16:43 PM
 #5874

For what its worth, latest post:

"I'm 90% sure that a giant triangle is drawn on the weekends. First, there are often triangles in a quadruple. Secondly, triangles are certainly after such a swing.

I think that this 2 month wave from 19800 to 5500 is the first wave A of the future triangle.

How long will the correction take? Well, if wave A lasted almost 2 months, then count. For about a year we will dance around ten."
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February 06, 2018, 09:21:06 PM
 #5875

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.
Gyrsur
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February 06, 2018, 09:32:57 PM
 #5876

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.


Derivatives like Futures and Options are part of the formation of BTC prices since some time. Whether we like it or not the best way to adapt it is to learn how they are working and how we can profit from them.
ssmc2
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February 06, 2018, 09:34:46 PM
 #5877

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.



What about April 2013?
Gyrsur
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February 06, 2018, 09:38:27 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2018, 09:58:27 PM by Gyrsur
 #5878

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.



What about April 2013?

low (bottom) after 04/2017 was around 45 USD. former ATH was around 33 USD. I do not say it will hit exactly the former ATH but it seems to me there is a pattern.

this is the Mt.Gox chart. please also have in mind that Mt.Gox was the dominant marketplace in these old days and the price was heavy manipulated by Mt.Gox bots for themselves.


Derivatives like Futures and Options are part of the formation of BTC prices since some time. Whether we like it or not the best way to adapt it is to learn how they are working and how we can profit from them.
European Central Bank
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February 06, 2018, 09:59:46 PM
 #5879

What about April 2013?

wasn't april 2013 full gox? i dunno if i'd trust any figures from a market so much under gox's control. 2011 maybe as its issues were known when it was bought but it was still early days. by 2013 its actions must've been heavily affected by those missing coins.
Wekkel
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February 06, 2018, 10:14:27 PM
 #5880

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.

100k is not ruled out, but the scenario is that such a run up won't happen soon. So packing up, leaving and doing something nice with your life the next period is not a bad idea. Bitcoin will do fine.

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