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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 937750 times)
Mhz_evadah
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February 06, 2018, 12:25:19 PM
 #5861

I've gotta say, the last 36 hours of price action took me by surprise. I definitely thought I felt capitulation on the spike to $7,500. I guess I was wrong. Sentiment seems incredibly bearish, especially considering the fact that we've already dropped nearly 70% from the highs.

Like people never experienced a BTC dead cat bounce before. Tongue

The weekly close and the sustained bearishness definitely suggests the possibility of a new bear market. But I'm still sticking with my guns.....there is definitely a mega bounce incoming. And $13k-15k is still on the table.

Whether people dump the bottom first is another matter. Grin

This will go down in history as one of the most outstanding moments in crypto market, where the mighty falls dragging on its quests. If and when this market recovers, the market should prepare for a more bullish trend especially from new adopters.

However, like its commonly said 'brace for impact' as it would seem BTC hasn't touch down yet.

Like with all analysis maybe the doom of this was in the number of people beginning to follow and believe in it. Makes for an easy target for manipulators. Poor sheeple.

I guess it is safe to say we are way to soon and yet far from mass adoption. If people joining the cryptocurrency train on the basis of pseudo believe, can have this much negative impact on the integrity of blockchain enterprise (cryptocurrency included) as a whole, then we may as well not be ready for this roller coaster trip of price fluctuation.

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Millionero
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February 06, 2018, 07:21:27 PM
 #5862


Enky has a tweet calling support at 3900-5300
https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Trading

Wekkel
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February 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), 600watt (1), fabiorem (1)
 #5863

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes


uslfd
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February 06, 2018, 08:49:17 PM
 #5864

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes



Exactly. The move to below $7K might not be that significant.... even if ML is wrong by missing one more leg down, it's not the end of the world. No one could be right 100% of the time.

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Bitcoinaire
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February 06, 2018, 09:16:43 PM
 #5865

For what its worth, latest post:

"I'm 90% sure that a giant triangle is drawn on the weekends. First, there are often triangles in a quadruple. Secondly, triangles are certainly after such a swing.

I think that this 2 month wave from 19800 to 5500 is the first wave A of the future triangle.

How long will the correction take? Well, if wave A lasted almost 2 months, then count. For about a year we will dance around ten."
milkshock100
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February 06, 2018, 09:21:06 PM
 #5866

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.
Gyrsur
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February 06, 2018, 09:32:57 PM
 #5867

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.

ssmc2
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February 06, 2018, 09:34:46 PM
 #5868

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.



What about April 2013?
Gyrsur
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February 06, 2018, 09:38:27 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2018, 09:58:27 PM by Gyrsur
 #5869

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.



What about April 2013?

low (bottom) after 04/2017 was around 45 USD. former ATH was around 33 USD. I do not say it will hit exactly the former ATH but it seems to me there is a pattern.

this is the Mt.Gox chart. please also have in mind that Mt.Gox was the dominant marketplace in these old days and the price was heavy manipulated by Mt.Gox bots for themselves.

European Central Bank
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February 06, 2018, 09:59:46 PM
 #5870

What about April 2013?

wasn't april 2013 full gox? i dunno if i'd trust any figures from a market so much under gox's control. 2011 maybe as its issues were known when it was bought but it was still early days. by 2013 its actions must've been heavily affected by those missing coins.
Wekkel
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February 06, 2018, 10:14:27 PM
 #5871

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.

100k is not ruled out, but the scenario is that such a run up won't happen soon. So packing up, leaving and doing something nice with your life the next period is not a bad idea. Bitcoin will do fine.

mammut
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February 06, 2018, 10:21:16 PM
 #5872

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.

100k is not ruled out, but the scenario is that such a run up won't happen soon. So packing up, leaving and doing something nice with our life the next period is not a bad idea. Bitcoin will do fine.
No, the unintended Fork was around February and it dipped to around 23 USD. April 2013/was when GOX had a downtime and then 10 minute trading lags and then artificial downtime again while stamp was still trading Wink
Biodom
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February 06, 2018, 11:11:23 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2018, 11:54:04 PM by Biodom
 #5873

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.

https://i.imgur.com/I9cdMXG.png

I noticed something else: in both 2013 peaks on the weekly charts we retested the exact value of the last weekly green candle.
This time, though, we went straight down. If the pattern repeats, we ought to repeat the last weekly green at about $18958.
That would be fun, but I give it a low probability.

Less important: I don't think that on the long term charts you should think about intraday values, just the closing ones.
On a closing basis, after $240 peak in April 2013, it bottomed at 68.36, about twice as high as the prior ATH.

Another point: it is not clear yet if we would have a second peak like in 2013 or not. It is possible, but less likely.
exstasie
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February 06, 2018, 11:23:43 PM
Merited by manchester93 (2)
 #5874

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes

No need. It's my opinion that the internal waves cannot be counted yet. There is no invalidation in an EW sense, except that his preferred count was probably wrong. Like I said, it was too early to count anyway. It was bound to be wrong.

Look at the structure from April 2013. Notice the immediate >80% drop in price that came after the top. Structurally, I see very little difference between these two fractals.

I think he's right that this was the first leg down in a corrective. It could be Wave A of a triangle as he points out. It could be W in a WXY where Y is a higher low (this is the most common structure these days; triangles rarely happen anymore). Or we could be a looking at a zig zag. A zig zag seems unlikely given Bitcoin's historic price action.

Wekkel
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February 07, 2018, 06:52:36 AM
 #5875

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).
No, the unintended Fork was around February and it dipped to around 23 USD.

Thanks for refreshing my memory.

JohnUser
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February 07, 2018, 10:21:19 AM
 #5876



Damn, you prediction were so good, I'm gonna follow you right now;)

Can you lend your crystal ball for a few month ?
sickpig
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February 07, 2018, 05:06:23 PM
Merited by tokeweed (1), Wekkel (1), conspirosphere.tk (1), exstasie (1), silverfuture (1)
 #5877

Latest from masterluc's account @ vk.com (google translated)



direct url: https://vk.com/wall-130254204_9481

Zooming the graph:


Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
exstasie
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February 07, 2018, 11:25:00 PM
 #5878

wasn't april 2013 full gox? i dunno if i'd trust any figures from a market so much under gox's control. 2011 maybe as its issues were known when it was bought but it was still early days. by 2013 its actions must've been heavily affected by those missing coins.

Maybe so, but the fact remains that the demand still existed. Whether or not the Willy bot was manipulating us, people were still buying at those prices. Considering where the price is now, it seems totally irrelevant, doesn't it?

Also, I get the April and November run-ups mixed up, but I recall Huobi becoming extremely influential on the market in 2013. Analysts had no choice but to pay attention to China. In fact, I recall Masterluc pointed to an overlap on Huobi's chart that signified that the bubble was over. (It was) So I wouldn't attribute everything to Gox.

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February 07, 2018, 11:32:35 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #5879

Also, I get the April and November run-ups mixed up, but I recall Huobi becoming extremely influential on the market in 2013. Analysts had no choice but to pay attention to China. In fact, I recall Masterluc pointed to an overlap on Huobi's chart that signified that the bubble was over. (It was) So I wouldn't attribute everything to Gox.

china wasn't really much of a factor in april. by november gox was taking a firm backseat to china which is why the willy bot stuff doesn't feel like the definitive factor. i think bitstamp overtook gox during that run up too.

i guess gox could still be thought of as the place that sparked all of 2013 but by the end of it real money was leading.
snowdropfore
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February 08, 2018, 12:20:36 AM
 #5880

Latest from masterluc's account @ vk.com (google translated)



direct url: https://vk.com/wall-130254204_9481

Zooming the graph:



hope the bottom $6000 is reach . the triangle will take almost one year to complete??

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