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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 924923 times)
mammut
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February 06, 2018, 10:21:16 PM
 #5881

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).

So no 100k just messing around with 10k for a year? I’ll go and do something else then.

100k is not ruled out, but the scenario is that such a run up won't happen soon. So packing up, leaving and doing something nice with our life the next period is not a bad idea. Bitcoin will do fine.
No, the unintended Fork was around February and it dipped to around 23 USD. April 2013/was when GOX had a downtime and then 10 minute trading lags and then artificial downtime again while stamp was still trading Wink
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February 06, 2018, 11:11:23 PM
Last edit: February 06, 2018, 11:54:04 PM by Biodom
 #5882

according to the younger history of Bitcoin after a new ATH the former ATH was tested again.

https://i.imgur.com/I9cdMXG.png

I noticed something else: in both 2013 peaks on the weekly charts we retested the exact value of the last weekly green candle.
This time, though, we went straight down. If the pattern repeats, we ought to repeat the last weekly green at about $18958.
That would be fun, but I give it a low probability.

Less important: I don't think that on the long term charts you should think about intraday values, just the closing ones.
On a closing basis, after $240 peak in April 2013, it bottomed at 68.36, about twice as high as the prior ATH.

Another point: it is not clear yet if we would have a second peak like in 2013 or not. It is possible, but less likely.
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February 06, 2018, 11:23:43 PM
Merited by manchester93 (2)
 #5883

If we allow for some slippage and the price holds in this region, the scenario of ML may not be invalid after all. We shall see ...  Roll Eyes

No need. It's my opinion that the internal waves cannot be counted yet. There is no invalidation in an EW sense, except that his preferred count was probably wrong. Like I said, it was too early to count anyway. It was bound to be wrong.

Look at the structure from April 2013. Notice the immediate >80% drop in price that came after the top. Structurally, I see very little difference between these two fractals.

I think he's right that this was the first leg down in a corrective. It could be Wave A of a triangle as he points out. It could be W in a WXY where Y is a higher low (this is the most common structure these days; triangles rarely happen anymore). Or we could be a looking at a zig zag. A zig zag seems unlikely given Bitcoin's historic price action.

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February 07, 2018, 06:52:36 AM
 #5884

April 2013 was an unintended fork, I believe, that was quickly resolved by the devs. I can remember because it saved my hide (I anticipated a further dive down and was about to miss the train).
No, the unintended Fork was around February and it dipped to around 23 USD.

Thanks for refreshing my memory.

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February 07, 2018, 10:21:19 AM
 #5885



Damn, you prediction were so good, I'm gonna follow you right now;)

Can you lend your crystal ball for a few month ?
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February 07, 2018, 05:06:23 PM
Merited by conspirosphere.tk (1), Wekkel (1), tokeweed (1), exstasie (1), silverfuture (1)
 #5886

Latest from masterluc's account @ vk.com (google translated)



direct url: https://vk.com/wall-130254204_9481

Zooming the graph:


Bitcoin is a participatory system which ought to respect the right of self determinism of all of its users - Gregory Maxwell.
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February 07, 2018, 11:25:00 PM
 #5887

wasn't april 2013 full gox? i dunno if i'd trust any figures from a market so much under gox's control. 2011 maybe as its issues were known when it was bought but it was still early days. by 2013 its actions must've been heavily affected by those missing coins.

Maybe so, but the fact remains that the demand still existed. Whether or not the Willy bot was manipulating us, people were still buying at those prices. Considering where the price is now, it seems totally irrelevant, doesn't it?

Also, I get the April and November run-ups mixed up, but I recall Huobi becoming extremely influential on the market in 2013. Analysts had no choice but to pay attention to China. In fact, I recall Masterluc pointed to an overlap on Huobi's chart that signified that the bubble was over. (It was) So I wouldn't attribute everything to Gox.

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February 07, 2018, 11:32:35 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #5888

Also, I get the April and November run-ups mixed up, but I recall Huobi becoming extremely influential on the market in 2013. Analysts had no choice but to pay attention to China. In fact, I recall Masterluc pointed to an overlap on Huobi's chart that signified that the bubble was over. (It was) So I wouldn't attribute everything to Gox.

china wasn't really much of a factor in april. by november gox was taking a firm backseat to china which is why the willy bot stuff doesn't feel like the definitive factor. i think bitstamp overtook gox during that run up too.

i guess gox could still be thought of as the place that sparked all of 2013 but by the end of it real money was leading.
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February 08, 2018, 12:20:36 AM
 #5889

Latest from masterluc's account @ vk.com (google translated)



direct url: https://vk.com/wall-130254204_9481

Zooming the graph:



hope the bottom $6000 is reach . the triangle will take almost one year to complete??

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February 08, 2018, 09:30:55 AM
 #5890


hope the bottom $6000 is reach . the triangle will take almost one year to complete??

Alts may take the lead during that time and Bitcoin will stay in shadows until Lightning Network is fully adopted.
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February 08, 2018, 08:10:29 PM
 #5891


hope the bottom $6000 is reach . the triangle will take almost one year to complete??

Alts may take the lead during that time and Bitcoin will stay in shadows until Lightning Network is fully adopted.

sounds like the plan, alts to rally, sideways for bitcoin, then flip those alts, moon time


Grin
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February 15, 2018, 02:39:54 PM
 #5892

Any updates? Is he still claiming 10k for the rest of the year ?
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February 15, 2018, 05:52:31 PM
 #5893

Any updates? Is he still claiming 10k for the rest of the year ?

think of it like this

what is happening with blockchain tech in the next year - boom


i dont think there is any coin out there (with good developers) that will lose, everyone winning



this is where it gets interesting

double that with a failing bank, stock, financial system and you might get a scenario where - camera film (FIAT) was dumped and digital cameras (CRYPTO) flew off the shelf

this well could be a transference of our financial system

Grin
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February 15, 2018, 08:02:53 PM
 #5894

Masterluc has just posted something very cryptic, I am afraid even Russian native speakers may have problems decoding.

Дecятoчкa мoя, cepeбpянaя
Ha зoлoтoм блюдe пocтaвлeннaя!

Google translate:

Ten of my, silver
On a gold platter set!

My take it he celebrate tens and says that it paves the way to much higher numbers. But some people think it was a prediction of btc/ltc ratio, lol. Wonder what you make out of it. I wish our revered prophet was a bit more specific. On the other thing, crossing 10k, and so vigorously, cannot be a bad thing Wink.
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February 15, 2018, 09:17:36 PM
 #5895

Masterluc has just posted something very cryptic, I am afraid even Russian native speakers may have problems decoding.

Дecятoчкa мoя, cepeбpянaя
Ha зoлoтoм блюдe пocтaвлeннaя!

Google translate:

Ten of my, silver
On a gold platter set!

My take it he celebrate tens and says that it paves the way to much higher numbers. But some people think it was a prediction of btc/ltc ratio, lol. Wonder what you make out of it. I wish our revered prophet was a bit more specific. On the other thing, crossing 10k, and so vigorously, cannot be a bad thing Wink.

Pretty sure he wouldn't mention LTC if he wiped it off his ass.
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February 15, 2018, 09:49:38 PM
 #5896


Pretty sure he wouldn't mention LTC if he wiped it off his ass.

I know Wink. But other than that, I am not that sure what he means.
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February 15, 2018, 10:13:07 PM
 #5897

It sounds as if the whiskey was good (and he is happy with where we are now after the 'correction' TM...)

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February 15, 2018, 10:21:22 PM
 #5898

Masterluc has just posted something very cryptic, I am afraid even Russian native speakers may have problems decoding.

Дecятoчкa мoя, cepeбpянaя
Ha зoлoтoм блюдe пocтaвлeннaя!

Google translate:

Ten of my, silver
On a gold platter set!

My take it he celebrate tens and says that it paves the way to much higher numbers. But some people think it was a prediction of btc/ltc ratio, lol. Wonder what you make out of it. I wish our revered prophet was a bit more specific. On the other thing, crossing 10k, and so vigorously, cannot be a bad thing Wink.

Pretty sure he wouldn't mention LTC if he wiped it off his ass.

Yep, definitely not about LTC. The master doesn't give a shit about altcoins. I take it as a celebration of $10k; I wouldn't read too much into it. Remember, he called for a bounce to $13k, leaving open the possibility for a larger correction (and even lower lows, though his preference was a for a triangle).

My take is the same as before. There should be major resistance at the last consolidation / breakdown level, $11k-13k. I expect significant pullback off that area. If it gets real choppy and a sideways consolidation develops, altcoins will probably do well.

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February 16, 2018, 12:06:58 AM
 #5899

Masterluc has just posted something very cryptic, I am afraid even Russian native speakers may have problems decoding.

Дecятoчкa мoя, cepeбpянaя
Ha зoлoтoм блюдe пocтaвлeннaя!

Google translate:

Ten of my, silver
On a gold platter set!

My take it he celebrate tens and says that it paves the way to much higher numbers. But some people think it was a prediction of btc/ltc ratio, lol. Wonder what you make out of it. I wish our revered prophet was a bit more specific. On the other thing, crossing 10k, and so vigorously, cannot be a bad thing Wink.

Pretty sure he wouldn't mention LTC if he wiped it off his ass.
Once upon a time, I wiped my ass with a dollar bill.
Still trying to figure out how I'm going to do that with crypto.
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February 16, 2018, 12:15:25 AM
Merited by ErisDiscordia (1)
 #5900

Masterluc has just posted something very cryptic, I am afraid even Russian native speakers may have problems decoding.

Дecятoчкa мoя, cepeбpянaя
Ha зoлoтoм блюдe пocтaвлeннaя!

Google translate:

Ten of my, silver
On a gold platter set!

My take it he celebrate tens and says that it paves the way to much higher numbers. But some people think it was a prediction of btc/ltc ratio, lol. Wonder what you make out of it. I wish our revered prophet was a bit more specific. On the other thing, crossing 10k, and so vigorously, cannot be a bad thing Wink.

Pretty sure he wouldn't mention LTC if he wiped it off his ass.
Once upon a time, I wiped my ass with a dollar bill.
Still trying to figure out how I'm going to do that with crypto.

Duuude, that's why you keep shit coins in paper wallets! Grin
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