Analysis

[exstasie]

And it's gone. 10K broken. bear market coming guys.

I believe it was the master himself who predicted sticky price action around the $10k psychological level, just like we had at the $1k level.

For some reason, many people think breaking $10k in either direction is meaningful. It's not. Those people are just getting short squeezed and long squeezed each time the market chops through it.

I would avoid leverage right now, stick to your trading plan and not get chopped out of positions when there is no clear trend. I believe Masterluc's prediction of long term sideways is still correct.

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[1714148281]

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[marcus_of_augustus]

... sticky $10k confirmed

[snowdropfore]

may be  bitcoin will going to test $6000 again .double bottom.if $6000 is broken ,it is over ,wait for another 4 years.

[tokeweed]

may be  bitcoin will going to test $6000 again .double bottom.if $6000 is broken ,it is over ,wait for another 4 years.

But what's this talk about TA not being applicable with BTC and other crypto?  Now that we're in a bear market, does it suddenly apply now?  Lololol.

Funny how uncertainty makes us latch on something.

[Tzupy]

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

[uslfd]

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

[Tzupy]

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.

[uslfd]

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.

OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

[cAPSLOCK]

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.


Mнe этoт пpeдcтaвитeль гoкca c миллиapдaми мoнeт нa пpoдaжy - нaпoминaeт пepcoнaжa c никoм pirateat40.

Я пpoвoдил yжe aнaлoгию тeкyщeй pынoчнoй cитyaции c aвгycтoм 2012. Toгдa былa пoxoжaя вoлнa и пoxoжий тpeyгoльник в кoppeкции. Taк вoт, имeннo тoгдa вылeзлo pirateat40, чecтнo пpизнaлocь, чтo eгo биткoин тpacт пиpaмидa и пpигpoзилo вылить тpиллиoн кoинoв нa pынoк.

Tpeйдepы oбкaкaлиcь и былa xopoшaя кoppeкция. Дa, биткoин тoгдa cтoил $10.

Удивитeльнo кaк вce движeтcя пo cпиpaли...

Пpoгнoзы нe измeнилиcь. Кaммeнты зaкpыты.

[AR_fan]

The market is oversold, so IMO a local bottom is in or will be in tomorrow, unless there's other unknown reason than TA for the dumping.
Daily MACD just crossed into negative, but this isn't too bearish if if will recover soon. On the contrary, it could provide a good entry point when it will cross back into positive.
I am expecting the market to build a triangle, that could take about a month to resolve up or down. If up, then slowly moving (at first) towards ~30 k$.
If it will break down, then probably we'll see a final bottom around 5,000 $.

Did you use RSI when you said "market is oversold" - because RSI hitting 20 doesn't mean it's goin back up immediately. It could be there for weeks

In the 24h and 12h time frames, the market is oversold. In BTC trading, unless a bear market is confirmed, it doesn't stay oversold for long.

uh? this is a bear market since a long time. didn't you see the crash from 20k? the bubble popped! this is no correction, this is a bear market!

[Tzupy]

...
OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

I would believe that we are in a bear market, if weekly MACD would cross into negative, but others may have a different TA.
The MtGox bankruptcy Trustee has no reasons to sell any more bitcoins soon, because he has secured the JPY for the bankruptcy proceedings.

[exstasie]

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.

Thank you for this! I agree with him. The bearishness is palpable and the correction is probably not over (which is good because most of us are still accumulating). But this is still looking like a corrective fractal from 2012 or 2013.

...
OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

I would believe that we are in a bear market, if weekly MACD would cross into negative, but others may have a different TA.

We haven't seen a death cross (200/50MA) on the 1-day chart since 2015. That would definitely indicate a long term winter incoming.

[Biodom]

....which is good because most of us are still accumulating....

Not much left to accumulate...

Any buying in the last three months was wrong not because peeps are bad traders, but because there was that character...stupid is as stupid does.

Act2 would be some bulgarian gov dummy starting to do the same (they got like $1-2 bil).

[STT]

OK - how do you define a BTC bear market. Below 200d avg?
If Mt Gox keeps selling rest of holding at spot market I'm pretty sure it will be a bear market

I dont think thats a good enough reason to call it a bear market, there might be other reasons but that supply coming onto an exchange alone is not enough.
Mt gox was a known negative over 4 years ago. I never heard of people believing these coins had been written off, no longer available. That supply was there, not apparent on an exchange perhaps but its part of the price previously if not the liquidity.

How I would read this news and price move as, mt gox regulators cashing out its assets and would be a temporary change to supply and demand.     It might not be perceivable as a trading signal but its fairly straight forward to call it a buying opportunity.  The weakness cause is known and accounted for, its also temporary and minor to the overall market movement.

Were the silk road coins a far larger amount at the time.   It wasnt really a good reason for the market to go down long term.  An actual shift to confidence has to occur for it to matter in market making terms I think.

[snowdropfore]

Latest Lucif:

To me, this representative of the gax with billions of coins for sale - reminds the character with the nickname pirateat40.

I already conducted an analogy of the current market situation with August 2012. Then there was a similar wave and a similar triangle in correction. So, it was then that pirateat40 came out, honestly admitted that his bitcoin trust was a pyramid and threatened to pour a trillion of coins into the market.

Traders bucked and had a good correction. Yes, bitcoin then cost $ 10.

It's amazing how everything moves in a spiral ...

The forecasts have not changed. Kammenty closed.


Mнe этoт пpeдcтaвитeль гoкca c миллиapдaми мoнeт нa пpoдaжy - нaпoминaeт пepcoнaжa c никoм pirateat40.

Я пpoвoдил yжe aнaлoгию тeкyщeй pынoчнoй cитyaции c aвгycтoм 2012. Toгдa былa пoxoжaя вoлнa и пoxoжий тpeyгoльник в кoppeкции. Taк вoт, имeннo тoгдa вылeзлo pirateat40, чecтнo пpизнaлocь, чтo eгo биткoин тpacт пиpaмидa и пpигpoзилo вылить тpиллиoн кoинoв нa pынoк.

Tpeйдepы oбкaкaлиcь и былa xopoшaя кoppeкция. Дa, биткoин тoгдa cтoил $10.

Удивитeльнo кaк вce движeтcя пo cпиpaли...

Пpoгнoзы нe измeнилиcь. Кaммeнты зaкpыты.

The forecasts have not changed ,,does means that the bitcoin is still on his $100k road?? making a big trianle like  august 2012?

[keystroke]

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

[snowdropfore]

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?

[STT]

We haven't seen a death cross (200/50MA) on the 1-day chart since 2015. That would definitely indicate a long term winter incoming.

The 200 daily moving average is still rising so I dont see this move as long term bearish yet.   It is part of an ongoing correction though, perhaps it moves this strongly because credit was introduced to the market by involvement of consumers and their credit cards.

This was sharply withdrawn leading to a reversal along with other factors.  However there is another dynamic which is not leverage but the reaction to the decline of the US Dollar.  Actual tranmission fees for BTC have fallen greatly and there is an uptrend in there somewhere to be found.   The speculation is where this line resides, I dont agree there is no uptrend just yet.

The current target right now would be the longer term 2017 dynamic which is around 9137 would be your upside target even if bearish medium term thats possible.   A proper decline should confirm the previous uptrend I expect

[CosaNostra]

New post and it is bad news:

As that sucks everything went. The scenario I proposed is on the verge of failure. To continue it, the price should immediately turn around. Or to turn sharply around $ 6000.

As we are:
- Under the daily sma200 (punching down)
- Under the weekly sma20
- Under daily sma20
- Under the long-term trend (punching down)

The most sad first and last fact.

This means that when the daily smash of 200 is broken down, the medium-term picture breaks down. And the next support is on the lower historical trend - $ 3000.

A bullish long-term picture breaks when it breaks down $ 3,000.

Taka fucking babies.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

everything is going to sink,including bitcoin ,let us come back 4 years  later when the next halving happens.

Not good news, but I am frankly most intrigued by the Google translate "fucking babies"  - anybody fluent in Russian here to help please?

Actually that's not Russian, but Ukrainian famous phrase literally meaning "Such [fucking] shit, kids".