Analysis

[marcus_of_augustus]

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

[Tzupy]

Despite the recovery of the bid side, action remained weak, and some indicators kept worsening, like 12h PSAR flipping to bearish.
Price is still close to the 6h, 12h and 24h lower BB, and if we won't see strong buys soon, the weekly MACD could cross into negative.
Maybe we are just scraping the bottom, or we will see major dumps soon, this will be decided next week.

.... and now?

Weekly MACD crossed into negative some days ago, but it's not deep yet. If we'll go sideways for long enough, the 12h MACD will be close to cross into positive and a pump could be attempted.

[ssmc2]

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.

[exstasie]

So basically up, down, or sideways. I love TA.

I've heard that markets trend 20% of the time. The other 80% of the time, they chop and consolidate. In my experience that's correct. With that in mind, "up, down, or sideways" is the best approach until the market has decisively trapped either bulls or bears on the wrong side of a consolidation. Humans tend to hold through (and double down on) losses, so once a significant trading range is broken, it's worth taking note and following the trend.

We're in the middle of a 2-week consolidation, tight range. There should be gas in the tank once we have a breakout. Fingers crossed for > $7,500 but this is a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise.

[harvw]

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?

[DimaKHV]

Any updates from masterluc? Does he have a Telegram group?

https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/7
Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!

[snowdropfore]

what does the new update mean??

[exstasie]

what does the new update mean??

The 1-day chart shows a falling (bullish) wedge. I mentioned it here:

A trading friend of mine (who generally leans permabear) is partial to this bullish wedge:

The wedge has now broken upwards. Masterluc says, "Bpoдe клин cpaбoтaл!" which means, "It seems the wedge worked!" So we should trend upwards for a while.

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I suspect we will have another round of despair in a few months, but for now, everything looks bullish. We are likely to re-test the lower $7,000s but I would be extremely surprised if bears are allowed below $7,000 again. Lots of trapped shorts still to be squeezed.

[TheQuin]

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I had a go at drawing the same lines on the same weekly log scale chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qoRIHLgS/


Disclaimer: I'm not entirely sure it means anything.

[exstasie]

I would like to see an update to this chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/PjYa65fU/

It's not obvious to me (because another three weeks have passed since he posted that) whether we failed the mid-line or not. But I take Masterluc's words (and the strong bounce off the 1-week 50MA) to mean that we are bullish for the foreseeable future.

I had a go at drawing the same lines on the same weekly log scale chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qoRIHLgS/

Disclaimer: I'm not entirely sure it means anything.

Thanks. Ideally, we'd only wick through the mid-line, but I'm keeping an open mind here. I should point out that pitchfork lines are fairly subjective based on who's drawing the lines and where they decide areas of confluence are.

Anyway, in the short term, I'm looking for a dip. But ideally it would be a short term consolidation before one leg higher, to form an impulse. Bigger picture, I'm still looking for a push into the lower $7,000s but I think it's really unlikely bears get new lows. Scribble of one possible path on the road to $10,000+:

[marky89]

I guess the master is bullish, then? Based on that wedge? At least for a solid bounce I assume.

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

[TheQuin]

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

From his trust wall it looks like the account has been hacked and is now inactive.

[Millionero]

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

From his trust wall it looks like the account has been hacked and is now inactive.

Yes, masterluc's account was hacked, and he doesn't use bitcointalk any more.
He has a blog
https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga
and a telegram account
https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga

[drays]

I guess the master is bullish, then? Based on that wedge? At least for a solid bounce I assume.

Has he stopped posting charts entirely?

He is not exactly bullish, he just said there may be bullish trend in short-term (the one actually happened last days), however he didn't tell it is going to continue mid term. He just said it *might* escalate, but with low certainty ("вoзмoжнa нeкaя бычья движyxa в кpaткocpoкe c пepcпeктивoй эcкaлaции."). I assume he prefers to be careful now, given the awkward state of the market and price drop below his longterm mid-lower trend line here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/.

[exstasie]

Anyway, in the short term, I'm looking for a dip. But ideally it would be a short term consolidation before one leg higher, to form an impulse. Bigger picture, I'm still looking for a push into the lower $7,000s but I think it's really unlikely bears get new lows. Scribble of one possible path on the road to $10,000+:

Price is following the expected course:



Price action from the $6,600s forms a clean impulse. That's good news because it suggests it was a Wave A or Wave 1, meaning there is probably more upside to come after this pullback. We should be prepared for continued dipping into the mid-$7,000s. There's a nice gap there that needs to be filled.

[Rep]

more details:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ifRkNjFy-BITCOIN-this-rise-was-t-surprising/

my charts on my topic :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2313920.new#new

[Wekkel]

An update was posted: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/

[STT]

Thats super long term, very bullish.   Hard to call it that easily for such a long period, I would expect us to require hard confirmation first and probably a few times before a large rise.  Theres alot of doubters and some of them have bitcoin to sell.
I altered the previous wedge chart to underline the price by volume indicator on the right which is part of the dynamic short term, which is the volume mass centred around 8500 to 8100.   This area for this and other reasons is forming some resistance post descending wedge breakout

[exstasie]

An update was posted: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/pmV1uLC7-Bitcoin-Longterm-update/

Ah, he re-drew the mid-line. I'm not surprised. Given the strong reaction we just saw on the 1-week chart, it makes sense to re-fit the regression.

Unfortunately, his forecast is still basically "up or down."

Price action from the $6,600s forms a clean impulse. That's good news because it suggests it was a Wave A or Wave 1, meaning there is probably more upside to come after this pullback. We should be prepared for continued dipping into the mid-$7,000s. There's a nice gap there that needs to be filled.

Bulls are looking pretty strong. Bears had a shot at forming a "three black crow" (bearish) pattern on the 1-day chart. Instead, we've got a bullish engulfing candle which closes in 15 minutes. It's possible the $7,800s were the last chance to buy the dip, and there's some short squeezing coming.

[Millionero]

Russian speakers can clarify what this means?

From telegram:

9500-10000 oтcкoчит. Taм днeвнaя cмa200
Google Translate:
9500-10000 oтcкoчит. Taм днeвнaя cмa200.

Ha cтoкax мeждy тeм oчepeднaя ( ).( )
Google Translate:
On the drains meanwhile the next (). ()

From his blog:

9500-10000 oтcкoчит (вниз). Taм днeвнaя cмa200. A нa cтoкax нынчe жoпa.
9500-10000 will rebound (down). There's a daytime sma200. And the sewers are now an asshole.