Analysis

[greensheep]

Personally I also think that it will take some more time to rise and stay above the SMA 200 again, doing some leapfrogs back and fronth untill then, but then again markets can indeed be very irrational...
I guess midterm seems like 3 months or sth.

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[figmentofmyass]

His long term calls have been epic. He called the April 2013 top, the July 2013 bottom, the December 2014 top. He predicted the 2017 run well before it happened. He obviously has a knack for this.

everyone has a knack until they don't any more. i'm always interested in what his thoughts are but i'm not certainly not betting my kid's college fund on his calls.

i think you'd be hard-pressed to find a single person whose long term predictions come close to masterluc's over the past several years.

and you shouldn't be betting your kid's college fund on anyone's calls. that's crazy. a 50% win rate for a trader (assuming proper risk management) is great. that's how you should approach this.

i wouldn't risk more than my lunch money on someone else's analysis. charts and predictions from other people should be nothing more than ideas---they shouldn't constitute your trading plan. they should be used to challenge your own biases more than anything else.

[exstasie]

Midterm picture looks bearish . Price is under cruical curves weekly sma20 and daily sma200 which are strong resistances.

Weekly sma20 did a bend down, which was always a bad sign.

We got a double bottom at around $6k which does some support.

Overall midterm picture is bearish (70/30).

Longterm picture is bullish while historical log lower trend line at around $3k holds.

I definitely see where he's coming from. The 1-week 20MA "bending" like that is pretty bad news, historically. I'd agree that there is a bearish bias given the overall trend, but 70/30 sounds about right (not a sure thing). We could certainly continue coiling in a long term sideways inside the 1-week bands, and that could turn bullish.

The fact that the 20MA is lining up around $10,000 is no mistake. That's a major resistance, and probably a "sticky" price.

[Cherylstar86]

Yeah now we are on the progressive side of price and it won't be possible for that price to decrease at $2000 because it has come to the right path with demand to become more stable. People are not really particular on how it fluctuates like that analyzing the actual trend, and what they are more particular is the current price together with the idea of holding their patience and achieve good trades in the future. Maybe that lines in the chart was just a representation, and the actual outcome is a rewarding proof of scenario.

[mymenace]

approximate 60% increase to mid June

approximate 25-35% sell off

End July to August Bear or Bull?

[cAPSLOCK]

Latest:

Чo тaм Биткoин? У биткoин пoкa вce плoxo в cpeднecpoкe. Ha нeдeльнoй кapтинe caми видитe - в нeгaтивнoй зoнe ББ, cвepxy дaвит пaдaющaя мa20 и вce тaкoe. Кyдa пaдaeм? Ha мoиx пpeжниx гpaфикax ecть иcтopичecкaя лoгapифмичecкaя линия пoддepжки в paйoнe 3-4к, cмoтpя кaк пpoвecти. B paйoнe 2000 нaм нaвcтpeчy идeт нeдeльнaя мa200. Я cчитaю пoддepжкy этoй кpивoй aбcoлютнoй нa дaннoм этaпe. Oнa пpocтo нe мoжeт быть пpoбитa.

Meдвeжий вeтep нaм дyeт c yoлл cтpит. Taм cидят oчeнь yмныe пapни c бoльшими cвoпaми, oни жмyт oднy и тy жe кнoпкy нa вcex pынкax, включaя биткoин. Этo иcчepпывaющee oбъяcнeниe пpoиcxoдящeгo.

Eщe paз гoвopю, быки cпят минимyм дo 19гo гoдa.


Why is Bitcoin there? At bitcoin, everything is bad in the mid-term. In the week-long picture, you can see yourself - in the negative zone of the BB, the falling ma20 and everything like that presses from above. Where do we fall? On my previous charts, there is a historical logarithmic support line in the 3-4k area, depending on how to navigate. In the area of ​​2000, we are met by a week-long ma200. I consider the support of this curve to be absolute at this stage. It just can not be pierced.

Bear the wind blows to us from Wall Street. There are very clever guys with big swaps, they are shaking the same button in all markets, including bitcoin. This is an exhaustive explanation of what is happening.

Once again I say bulls sleep at least until the 19 th year.

[Tzupy]

The market is oversold in several time frames, but also with negative MACD and hugging the lower BB, so very weak.
For a bullish scenario to become possible, we need to move away from the lower BB and cross MACD into positive, there's about a week left for a possible pump.
Even so, if strong buys won't happen, a recovery could turn out to be a fakeout (and crash about a month from now), like in this scenario on Tradingview:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/fmjAIUtp-Puff-Puff-Pass-Bitcoin-From-Tha-Clouds-To-Tha-Grass-BTC-D/

[figmentofmyass]

Why is Bitcoin there? At bitcoin, everything is bad in the mid-term. In the week-long picture, you can see yourself - in the negative zone of the BB, the falling ma20 and everything like that presses from above. Where do we fall? On my previous charts, there is a historical logarithmic support line in the 3-4k area, depending on how to navigate. In the area of ​​2000, we are met by a week-long ma200. I consider the support of this curve to be absolute at this stage. It just can not be pierced.

Bear the wind blows to us from Wall Street. There are very clever guys with big swaps, they are shaking the same button in all markets, including bitcoin. This is an exhaustive explanation of what is happening.

Once again I say bulls sleep at least until the 19 th year.

thanks for sharing that. i figured the master agreed, the situation is quite bearish. when the long term moving average supports (like the weekly ma20) have curved down, it's time for bulls to hibernate.

and the daily chart... the way we're consistently (for many months) holding the negative portion of the bollinger band and grinding the lower band---very bearish and really reminds me of 2014. not just the look of the chart but the hopeful sentiment mixed with dismal action.

back then i was much better at switching gears to bear mode; this time it took me a lot longer to recognize what was happening.

[Andergriff]

New post from Master:

Bидeли нoвocти пpo aтaки 51% нa фopкax? Эйфopия oт пyзыpя пpoшлa. Boйнa фopкoв, пpo кoтopyю я пиcaл гдe-тo тyт нaчaлacь. Maлo ктo выживeт. B кoнцe кoнцoв ocтaнeтcя тoлькo oдин фopк.

Did you see the news about 51% attacks on forks? Euphoria from the bubble has passed. The war of forks, going through I wrote somewhere started here. Few will survive. In the end, there will only be one fork.

[Wekkel]

Seems quite pessimistic 

From my perspective, the great year(s) of the forks are behind us. The pressure seems more in focussing on real life usability now. If the tech does not solve a real problem (right now), mass adoption is postponed until the tech is mature enough. That could lead to several years of 'no hype' with dito languishing prices.

[Denker]

Seems quite pessimistic 

From my perspective, the great year(s) of the forks are behind us. The pressure seems more in focussing on real life usability now. If the tech does not solve a real problem (right now), mass adoption is postponed until the tech is mature enough. That could lead to several years of 'no hype' with dito languishing prices.

I agree. I can not take his statement seriously.
The majority of forks will die off within the next couple of years.
So far Bitcoin is the only crypto with a real use case at the moment. Store of value and censorship resistent money.
And imo that's the most powerful use case you can have in today's financial world.
And with Lightning network on top of the base protocol who knows with what kind of business ideas the smart people in this space will come up with.
Altcoins will have a rough time, imo.

[MarquiseMuseum]

Seems quite pessimistic 

From my perspective, the great year(s) of the forks are behind us. The pressure seems more in focussing on real life usability now. If the tech does not solve a real problem (right now), mass adoption is postponed until the tech is mature enough. That could lead to several years of 'no hype' with dito languishing prices.

I agree. I can not take his statement seriously.
The majority of forks will die off within the next couple of years.
So far Bitcoin is the only crypto with a real use case at the moment. Store of value and censorship resistent money.
And imo that's the most powerful use case you can have in today's financial world.
And with Lightning network on top of the base protocol who knows with what kind of business ideas the smart people in this space will come up with.
Altcoins will have a rough time, imo.

Tethered coins will mushroom fall winter 2018 when fortune 500 comes online. Bitcoin is obsolete comparable to patented systems of generation 5 coins and that emerging industry which will carry crypto above $2tn.

[ft73]

Weekly RSI / Stoch RSI 2018 vs. 2014:



We're in a quite interesting situation.

Moreover as you can notice Stoch RSI ( red line ) didn't manage to get to overbought since december, 2017.
Imho it means sooner or later we'll get a noticeable "slingshot" effect.

Weekly Candlestick Chart:



Bearish so far, yet we have a falling wedge.
What if we'll get a doji star on sunday close ?

[drays]

Seems quite pessimistic  

From my perspective, the great year(s) of the forks are behind us. The pressure seems more in focussing on real life usability now. If the tech does not solve a real problem (right now), mass adoption is postponed until the tech is mature enough. That could lead to several years of 'no hype' with dito languishing prices.

I agree. I can not take his statement seriously.
The majority of forks will die off within the next couple of years.
So far Bitcoin is the only crypto with a real use case at the moment. Store of value and censorship resistent money.
And imo that's the most powerful use case you can have in today's financial world.
And with Lightning network on top of the base protocol who knows with what kind of business ideas the smart people in this space will come up with.
Altcoins will have a rough time, imo.

You just misunderstood the statement from Masteluk, partly due to his 'cryptic' style of writing, partly because of translation.
What he was telling is exactly what you wrote above:
He wrote:

... Boйнa фopкoв, пpo кoтopyю я пиcaл гдe-тo тyт нaчaлacь. Maлo ктo выживeт. B кoнцe кoнцoв ocтaнeтcя тoлькo oдин фopк.

which means

... Forks (meaning - both direct Bitcoin forks, and altcoins in general) started fighting with each other, and few of them will survive. In the end there only one fork will remain - the Bitcoin

If you read his prior posts, there is no other interpretation, as he supports only Bitcoin, and hates all other alts by some reason.

So basically you both are saying the same thing.

[figmentofmyass]

no new analysis, though? i suppose he is just generally bearish for the mid-term. post-euphoria and all....

i miss his charts.

Tethered coins will mushroom fall winter 2018 when fortune 500 comes online. Bitcoin is obsolete comparable to patented systems of generation 5 coins and that emerging industry which will carry crypto above $2tn.

"generation 5 coins"---ooooh, sounds fancy! remind me, what coins were generations 3 and 4? what's so great about this new "patented" technology?

[Bitmore1]

So I guess some more patience for us HODLers.

I am HODLing, but I want to scream...

[bileq]

this generation modelling is a different perspective. and very interesting. is there any article or workshop for this?

[MarquiseMuseum]

this generation modelling is a different perspective. and very interesting. is there any article or workshop for this?

It's a formula I dabbled with to categorize technological improvements on blockchain implementations combined with year of introduction. Future generations will incorporate AI software and organize global computing power towards IoT. Once you incorporate & extrapolate the novel concept of blockchain with Kurzweil/Bostrom/John Smart theories the true potential becomes very crystallized 10-20 years out.

The growth we have seen from $10B --> $850Bn is a fraction of what will happen when AGI software and robotics make use of the logistical advantages of blockchain. Applied to economic growth as we have all witnessed in 2017, rather than energy expansion (kardashev), a singularity type event based on proposed metrics could improve global gdp on a multiple of x15 from $70Tn to 1 quadrillion in a decade (roaring twenties 2.0).

No one will see that coming as little as everyone did 2017. Crypto peak of 850bn in december will be fibonacci wave 1 in a few years.

Gen 1: Bitcoin/Doge/Ltc (pre 2015)
Gen 2: Eth/Lisk/Maidsafe/Solarcoin/etc (2016)
Gen 3: Pivx/Raiblocks (early 2017)
Gen 4: Bulwark/Force/Gobyte/Desire masternode ecosystem (late 2017)
Gen 5: Tethered coins tied to fortune 500 merchandise of which Marquise Museum is an early entrant
Gen 6+: AI/AGI pegged blockchains that uses a share of smartphone/pc computing power to drive IoT

[keystroke]

Telegram post from masterluc: Dow Jones closed under the daytime ma200. Caution.

[keystroke]

More from the master:

Cyть axтyнгa в тoм, чтo битoк идeт в тpeндe co cтoкaми oбычнo. A cтoки coбpaлиcь в aдъ. Ho этo в cpeднecpoкe (гoд). Mдa. Я пиcaл нe oднoкpaтнo. B дoлгocpoкe битoк OК.

The essence of akhtunga is that the cue ball goes in a trend with runoffs usually. And the drains gathered in hell. But this is in the mid-term (year). Hmm. I wrote more than once. In the long run, the cue ball is OK.