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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 923590 times)
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September 28, 2018, 04:58:14 PM
 #6121

master just updates his tradingview, but somehow doesnt show, only in telegram.
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September 28, 2018, 05:18:00 PM
 #6122

It looks like something that is very similar to the truth. Let's see how this pattern will repeat exactly as in the previous times.

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WALLET




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exstasie
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September 28, 2018, 08:13:35 PM
 #6123

Newest from MasterLuc:

Thanks for sharing! I've been waiting quite some time for an update.

By all appearances, his earlier prediction that $6,000-$7,000 was a bottom range is correct. It's definitely looking like a Wyckoff accumulation schematic on the longer term charts now.

I'm very hesitant to declare another bubble season yet, but I will point out that Masterluc made the same call in early July 2013. That was right at the bottom before the late 2013 bubble.

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September 28, 2018, 09:39:49 PM
 #6124

The price can still go to $5,000 without hurting the bigger picture. The projection is a long(er) term view.

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September 28, 2018, 09:56:06 PM
 #6125

The price can still go to $5,000 without hurting the bigger picture. The projection is a long(er) term view.

So far, our lowest BTC price for this correction cycle has been about $5,774, so if BTC prices go down to $5k, it is likely going to cause additional fear from the HODLers and confidence from the bears to attempt to push it lower.  And $5k is more than 13% lower than $5,774, so it would not be any kind of minor nor insignificant development.

So any meaningful challenge or ability to go below $5,774 could cause such further down momentum, and surely $5k is more of a negative challenge than $5,500, and even though you could be correct that the longer term upward trend would not be significantly affected by such negative price movement, it would still cause some issues and delays and even inspire further BTC price battles.

Actually, a similar point could be made about going down to $3k or even $2k, these would be significantly major in the short-term for BTC prices, and at this point, BTC is still likely to go up in the near future, but going that low (to $5k, or to $3k or to $2k) would likely cause a considerable amount of delay in our current likely near-term UPWARDS BTC price trajectory... so currently, based on how long BTC prices have been bouncing above $5,774 - including starting such challenge of support in early February 2018, I am thinking that there is going to be a decent battle to get BTC prices to go below $5,774.. and there are decent chances (though certainly not guaranteed, and perhaps not even greater than 70%) that the bottom for this correction cycle is already in.. just depending on if there is more froth that is able to be shaken out in the alt coin space.. which remains a bit questionable in terms of how much more froth can be shaken out there.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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September 28, 2018, 10:21:03 PM
 #6126

So far, our lowest BTC price for this correction cycle has been about $5,774, so if BTC prices go down to $5k, it is likely going to cause additional fear from the HODLers and confidence from the bears to attempt to push it lower.  And $5k is more than 13% lower than $5,774, so it would not be any kind of minor nor insignificant development.

So any meaningful challenge or ability to go below $5,774 could cause such further down momentum, and surely $5k is more of a negative challenge than $5,500, and even though you could be correct that the longer term upward trend would not be significantly affected by such negative price movement, it would still cause some issues and delays and even inspire further BTC price battles.

It's hard to say exactly where this trading range breaks down. The June lower low makes it harder to assess for me. It breaks up > $7,430 (Bitfinex price). Peter Brandt says below ~ $5,600, supply sets in. Wherever that magic breakdown point is, I think it would take us significantly below $5,000. Based on Tim West's TAM method, I believe the target is something like $3,700.

The price can still go to $5,000 without hurting the bigger picture. The projection is a long(er) term view.

In hindsight, trend lines can often be wicked through or redrawn as price action develops. I'm not so worried about that channel bottom anyway.

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September 28, 2018, 10:47:29 PM
 #6127

So far, our lowest BTC price for this correction cycle has been about $5,774, so if BTC prices go down to $5k, it is likely going to cause additional fear from the HODLers and confidence from the bears to attempt to push it lower.  And $5k is more than 13% lower than $5,774, so it would not be any kind of minor nor insignificant development.

So any meaningful challenge or ability to go below $5,774 could cause such further down momentum, and surely $5k is more of a negative challenge than $5,500, and even though you could be correct that the longer term upward trend would not be significantly affected by such negative price movement, it would still cause some issues and delays and even inspire further BTC price battles.

It's hard to say exactly where this trading range breaks down. The June lower low makes it harder to assess for me. It breaks up > $7,430 (Bitfinex price). Peter Brandt says below ~ $5,600, supply sets in. Wherever that magic breakdown point is, I think it would take us significantly below $5,000. Based on Tim West's TAM method, I believe the target is something like $3,700.

1) I think that a lot of folks use Bitstamp prices in order to have more stable predictions that are based on non-margin traded exchanges, and bitstamp has proven pretty consistent for price references.

2) What does $5,600 supply sets in, mean?   That is a kind of breaking point arena?  You don't believe that there could be a lot of support even below the mid-$5ks?    The longer that prices stay above certain price points, including $6k does not make it more likely that breaking into the $5,500 area (just a bit below previous lows would cause significant negative triggers).  I doubt we can really know, and assuming that support is being eroded away faster than it builds is a bit much, in my thinking, especially in an asset like bitcoin, which is something that has a bit of its own uniqueness that it is bringing to the table in terms of asset classes and sound money... with an aura of shit coin imitators and wannabes.

3)  $3,700?  I will believe it when I see it.  We got a lot of breaking down and breaking of support to go between mid $5,000s and $3,700 in my thinking, but hey, I also understand that an actual break of support and quick fall down can be caused by a variety of circumstances that are currently unknown (like FUD) that has variations in believability or effects on BTC fundamentals.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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September 28, 2018, 11:05:56 PM
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 #6128

So far, our lowest BTC price for this correction cycle has been about $5,774, so if BTC prices go down to $5k, it is likely going to cause additional fear from the HODLers and confidence from the bears to attempt to push it lower.  And $5k is more than 13% lower than $5,774, so it would not be any kind of minor nor insignificant development.

So any meaningful challenge or ability to go below $5,774 could cause such further down momentum, and surely $5k is more of a negative challenge than $5,500, and even though you could be correct that the longer term upward trend would not be significantly affected by such negative price movement, it would still cause some issues and delays and even inspire further BTC price battles.

It's hard to say exactly where this trading range breaks down. The June lower low makes it harder to assess for me. It breaks up > $7,430 (Bitfinex price). Peter Brandt says below ~ $5,600, supply sets in. Wherever that magic breakdown point is, I think it would take us significantly below $5,000. Based on Tim West's TAM method, I believe the target is something like $3,700.

1) I think that a lot of folks use Bitstamp prices in order to have more stable predictions that are based on non-margin traded exchanges, and bitstamp has proven pretty consistent for price references.

It doesn't matter. This is a long term pivot, visible on the 1-day and 1-week charts. You can use $7,412 (Bitstamp) if you prefer. The exchanges generally stay in lockstep and definitely reflect the same long term price structures.

2) What does $5,600 supply sets in, mean?   That is a kind of breaking point arena?  You don't believe that there could be a lot of support even below the mid-$5ks?

The idea is that we've been trading in a range for many months, with a bottom in the $6,000 area. Once that bottom is decidedly lost, all the trapped buyers from this whole year will start selling.

This is what Brandt said specifically: "Just to be very precise (since I know my trolls will screen shot this all), 5750 to 5900 is solid support in BTC. The bear case (and plead of UNCLE) does not begin unless market has decisive close below 5600 -- but then target would be sub $3k". He paints it as a descending triangle breakdown. https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1037500744151097344

The emphasis is on a decisive close below. Not just a wick that propels us right back above $6,000 again, but a clear breakdown that sends marginal holders running for the exits. I'm sure you've seen those kind of decisive selloffs before.

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September 28, 2018, 11:33:10 PM
 #6129

So far, our lowest BTC price for this correction cycle has been about $5,774, so if BTC prices go down to $5k, it is likely going to cause additional fear from the HODLers and confidence from the bears to attempt to push it lower.  And $5k is more than 13% lower than $5,774, so it would not be any kind of minor nor insignificant development.

So any meaningful challenge or ability to go below $5,774 could cause such further down momentum, and surely $5k is more of a negative challenge than $5,500, and even though you could be correct that the longer term upward trend would not be significantly affected by such negative price movement, it would still cause some issues and delays and even inspire further BTC price battles.

It's hard to say exactly where this trading range breaks down. The June lower low makes it harder to assess for me. It breaks up > $7,430 (Bitfinex price). Peter Brandt says below ~ $5,600, supply sets in. Wherever that magic breakdown point is, I think it would take us significantly below $5,000. Based on Tim West's TAM method, I believe the target is something like $3,700.

1) I think that a lot of folks use Bitstamp prices in order to have more stable predictions that are based on non-margin traded exchanges, and bitstamp has proven pretty consistent for price references.

It doesn't matter. This is a long term pivot, visible on the 1-day and 1-week charts. You can use $7,412 (Bitstamp) if you prefer. The exchanges generally stay in lockstep and definitely reflect the same long term price structures.

I largely agree with you, but there is a bit of ease of reference, and sometimes during high volatility periods, the various exchanges go a bit out of kilter - even though on the macro-level there is usually not BIG differences.

2) What does $5,600 supply sets in, mean?   That is a kind of breaking point arena?  You don't believe that there could be a lot of support even below the mid-$5ks?

The idea is that we've been trading in a range for many months, with a bottom in the $6,000 area. Once that bottom is decidedly lost, all the trapped buyers from this whole year will start selling.

I understand what you are saying, and I don't buy it.  Perhaps, I would agree that if something like $5,200 is breached then both loss of confidence would occur from the HODLers and additional confidence of bears would trigger around that point, perhaps.  I understand the theory, I just don't personally engage in such a practice or advise anyone to sell their bitcoins on the way down in preparation for such event that might not happen.  Accordingly, in my thinking it remains better to continue to buy on the way down and to prepare to buy on the way down, if the BTC price actually does go down and breaches these various possible support levels.

This is what Brandt said specifically: "Just to be very precise (since I know my trolls will screen shot this all), 5750 to 5900 is solid support in BTC. The bear case (and plead of UNCLE) does not begin unless market has decisive close below 5600 -- but then target would be sub $3k". He paints it as a descending triangle breakdown. https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1037500744151097344


Fair enough, and I merited your post based on your providing the link and explaining your position, even though I have my reservation about how much anyone should be relying on supposed gurus, whether masterluc or Brant or any other wisdom of the crowds assigned guru.

The emphasis is on a decisive close below. Not just a wick that propels us right back above $6,000 again, but a clear breakdown that sends marginal holders running for the exits. I'm sure you've seen those kind of decisive selloffs before.

I agree that those kinds of sell offs happen from time to time (and some times create their own momentum, as you suggest), and as you likely realize they are based on a set of probabilities of breaking through each level of support, and as you break through each level of support, then breaking through the next level of support becomes more likely merely because you have broken through the higher level of support and thereafter support can become resistance.  However, since each of these occurrences is based on probabilities rather than certainty, we have to be careful regarding how much we bet on such an occurrence taking place and hopefully on an individual level we don't assign such event to become more probable than it really is merely based on theory and past occurrences that might not play out in the current situation based on other unknown factors.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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September 29, 2018, 04:12:02 AM
 #6130

blah blah blah
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October 02, 2018, 01:49:57 AM
 #6131

masterluc is still the master

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October 02, 2018, 09:14:46 AM
 #6132

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:


Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".
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October 08, 2018, 11:56:35 AM
 #6133

Daily MACD still negative, but close to crossing into positive, so a pump can be expected.
If this will be a breakout or a fakeout, remains to be seen. It would be useful to see the evolution of the bid side / ask side on exchanges,
but coinsight.org has been down for some time, and I don't know where else to look for this piece of information... Sad

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 10, 2018, 01:45:28 AM
 #6134

I'm sensing a head fake coming before the real breakout occurs.

It's hard to believe we could be heading into another bull run so soon, but if the master says so, I won't write it off!
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October 11, 2018, 04:30:44 PM
 #6135

I'm sensing a head fake coming before the real breakout occurs.

It's hard to believe we could be heading into another bull run so soon, but if the master says so, I won't write it off!

I suppose we see soon if you are right.
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October 17, 2018, 10:37:53 AM
 #6136

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:
~snip~

Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".


@ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?

... this space is not for rent ...
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October 17, 2018, 06:49:44 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #6137

Moving at a very slow pace.
Yet it's moving and we have a BB squeeze.

Global OBV:


Local OBV:
~snip~

Few days left for (A).
Otherwise (B) which would be more historically "compliant".


@ft73: how the OBV chart is looking now? Did we reach the levels marked in yellow?



No, see the 3 horizontal blue dashed lines.

Technically it's above resistance now on Bitstamp, but it does not look like that on Bitfinex yet.



Anyway, no volume no buy.

Take a look at this as well:



We need that support to hold in order to hope for a breakout without moving lower.

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October 23, 2018, 06:47:56 PM
Merited by Wekkel (1)
 #6138

New post @bitcoin_wanga from telegram

https://imgur.com/a/Zjq8Ksv

Quote
Cмoтpитe мeдвeжьи дивepгeнции кaкиe бeшeныe нa нeдeльныx cтoкax. Пo ocциллятopa.

Ho ecли cтoки yпaдyт, битoчeк зa ними в этoт paз нe пocлeдyeт.

Translated
Quote
See bearish divergences which are mad for weekly stocks. By oscillator.

But if stocks fall, bitcoin will not follow them this time.

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WALLET




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October 23, 2018, 08:24:17 PM
 #6139

someone got better translation?
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yes


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October 23, 2018, 09:38:32 PM
 #6140

A bad period for stocks would fit the thesis of Bitcoin staying down/muted for a few more months. If Bitcoin then also catches a cold from falling stocks (risk off), a scenario of $4,800 could materialise. But the master seems to have increasing faith in the medium term.

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