Analysis

[Millionero]

Bitfinex xbt price differs from other exchanges mostly because you can't arb it in direct fiat.  Arbing through usdt and usdc doesn't work because of disadvantageous exchange rates.

[1679891120]

1679891120

[prophetx]

I agree with his analysis however everybody knows that ~$6000 is a major resistance area. And usually when the general retail market knows something and they are trading on that, it usually ends up doing the opposite.

Sure its possible it might hit $6000 and go straight down. However I think we will need to get some double or triple top for confirmation.

I wouldn't be surprised if there would be a bull and bear trap in there somewhere. Basically breaking the $6000 ahead, heading to almost $7000, causing a huge short squeeze and bull trap and then falling again towards the $4K-$5K area.

Only time will tell.

good point. my experience is usually the price either overshoots or undershoots major levels since the market sees it coming. the chart doesn't look toppy yet so i'm inclined to agree that a squeeze beyond $6k is possible. breaking above $6k will cause many to proclaim a new bull market when in fact it'll probably precede a huge correction to the $4ks or maybe even lower.

The 1st bear fib level is at around 7400 and the next around 10k, it already broke the 200 dma I would super surprised if we got another opportunity to buy at $4000... it’s like when it dipped to the $200s and then went back up once it crossed $400 it never saw $200s ever again. Wishful thinking which then results in fomo later when people miss the train...

[dmwardjr]

Litecoin Block Halving Event Will have us Stair-Stepping Up till around the second week of July in my opinion.  My indicators have us reaching peak exhaustion in the 2-Week Time Frame on the 2-Week Candle beginning July 8, 2019.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.new#new

NEW VIDEO Publication titled, "Follow Up Explanation WHY Upward Pressure To This Weekend." See additional charts and comments in the comments section.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DBnESTh9-Follow-Up-Explanation-WHY-Upward-Pressure-To-This-Weekend/

20 Minute Video Publication posted yesterday:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ydOQmsfF-2012-REPEAT-in-My-Opinion-till-7-820-or-9-222-to-New-High/

[Tzupy]

I agree with his analysis however everybody knows that ~$6000 is a major resistance area. And usually when the general retail market knows something and they are trading on that, it usually ends up doing the opposite.

Sure its possible it might hit $6000 and go straight down. However I think we will need to get some double or triple top for confirmation.

I wouldn't be surprised if there would be a bull and bear trap in there somewhere. Basically breaking the $6000 ahead, heading to almost $7000, causing a huge short squeeze and bull trap and then falling again towards the $4K-$5K area.

Only time will tell.

good point. my experience is usually the price either overshoots or undershoots major levels since the market sees it coming. the chart doesn't look toppy yet so i'm inclined to agree that a squeeze beyond $6k is possible. breaking above $6k will cause many to proclaim a new bull market when in fact it'll probably precede a huge correction to the $4ks or maybe even lower.

I believe the market is running out of steam, and looking for a correction, possibly an ABC. I plan to buy back around 4.5k$, since I doubt it will go much lower.

[windjc]

I agree with his analysis however everybody knows that ~$6000 is a major resistance area. And usually when the general retail market knows something and they are trading on that, it usually ends up doing the opposite.

Sure its possible it might hit $6000 and go straight down. However I think we will need to get some double or triple top for confirmation.

I wouldn't be surprised if there would be a bull and bear trap in there somewhere. Basically breaking the $6000 ahead, heading to almost $7000, causing a huge short squeeze and bull trap and then falling again towards the $4K-$5K area.

Only time will tell.

good point. my experience is usually the price either overshoots or undershoots major levels since the market sees it coming. the chart doesn't look toppy yet so i'm inclined to agree that a squeeze beyond $6k is possible. breaking above $6k will cause many to proclaim a new bull market when in fact it'll probably precede a huge correction to the $4ks or maybe even lower.

I believe the market is running out of steam, and looking for a correction, possibly an ABC. I plan to buy back around 4.5k$, since I doubt it will go much lower.

Yeah, you and EVERYBODY else. The only way this gets anywhere close to 4.5k is if we fomo from here. Otherwise you'll be lucky to get to 5k.

[marcus_of_augustus]

If you weren't buying under 6k or 5k or 4k then wtf? paralysis by analysis?

[JayJuanGee]

If you weren't buying under 6k or 5k or 4k then wtf? paralysis by analysis?

Waiting to find out what "what's his name" is going to say.

If he says it is going up, then buy.  If he says it is going down, then either sell or wait to buy. 

[Toxic2040]

If you weren't buying under 6k or 5k or 4k then wtf? paralysis by analysis?

Waiting to find out what "what's his name" is going to say.

If he says it is going up, then buy.  If he says it is going down, then either sell or wait to buy. 

pussy.


fuck off and #dyor jjg.



 

[JayJuanGee]

If you weren't buying under 6k or 5k or 4k then wtf? paralysis by analysis?

Waiting to find out what "what's his name" is going to say.

If he says it is going up, then buy.  If he says it is going down, then either sell or wait to buy. 

pussy.


fuck off and #dyor jjg.



 

Nope.....

I am going to wait for "what's his name" to tell me what to do. 

 

[Wind_FURY]

I have been trolling this idea in this subforum. "The rally is driven by Bitfinex's users who are buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw their money".

What's the probability that that can be true?

[dmwardjr]

I have been trolling this idea in this subforum. "The rally is driven by Bitfinex's users who are buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw their money".

What's the probability that that can be true?

And THAT may have been the very recipe Composite Groups (Whales) were looking for to implement their next bullish move; knowing they would have to contend with less resistance.  In fact, they would receive additional assistance without having to spend as much capital.

[figmentofmyass]

The only way this gets anywhere close to 4.5k is if we fomo from here. Otherwise you'll be lucky to get to 5k.

we just pumped $525 and counting in the last 6 hours. does that count as fomo?

looks like we're steamrolling right through the apex masterluc pointed out. i'm surprised at the lack of volume/resistance. it looks like there is zero supply in the $6000s.

where does the squeeze end?

[gentlemand]

I have been trolling this idea in this subforum. "The rally is driven by Bitfinex's users who are buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw their money".

What's the probability that that can be true?

I'm wondering this, though obviously it's gone past that point now. The premium is actually in the negative at present if you put their withdrawal fees on top.

It could be pondered that the previous bubble kicked off EXACTLY when Bitfinex lost their banking around the $1000 mark.

I know everything needs a catalyst but it would be nice if it were a more wholesome one.

[Ahab_Hunter_of_BearWhale]

[Wind_FURY]

I have been trolling this idea in this subforum. "The rally is driven by Bitfinex's users who are buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw their money".

What's the probability that that can be true?

And THAT may have been the very recipe Composite Groups (Whales) were looking for to implement their next bullish move; knowing they would have to contend with less resistance.  In fact, they would receive additional assistance without having to spend as much capital.

Then if Bitfinex has been drained by users "buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw", would the rally quickly reverse, or do the "composite groups" have control over the market by now?

Bitfinex's cold wallet address, https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

[TaurusBit]

[figmentofmyass]

And THAT may have been the very recipe Composite Groups (Whales) were looking for to implement their next bullish move; knowing they would have to contend with less resistance.  In fact, they would receive additional assistance without having to spend as much capital.

Then if Bitfinex has been drained by users "buying Bitcoin up to quickly withdraw", would the rally quickly reverse, or do the "composite groups" have control over the market by now?

Bitfinex's cold wallet address, https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

the fact that bitfinex is trading below the other exchanges now suggests that most of the buying pressure is coming from elsewhere at this point. add the fact that shorts are obviously being squeezed on bitfinex too---about 4k BTC shorts have closed into this pump over $6k---it's obvious the rally isn't hinging on bitfinex anymore. quite reminiscent of 2017 if you ask me.

it's not that any entities have control over the market. smart whales are just following the path of least resistance, which was obviously UP.

[sbj175]

I'm surprised no one around here is talking about PlanB's Medium article -- "Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity" -- on modeling Bitcoin's price based on "Stock-to-flow" ratio. I believe he's found a solid fundamental price driver.

Or is this thread strictly TA?

[keystroke]

Recent stock-to-flow ratio posts impressed me as the most interesting new price model to come out in years. But this thread is really for following masterluc IMO, although he no longer posts here of course. Maybe we should make a new thread about bitcoin stock-to-flow.

[keystroke]

Пoглядeл я нa нeдeльныe и днeвныe зaкpывшиecя cвeчи.... Hи нaмeкa нa cлaбocть тpeндa. Биткoин cкaзaл "Xз ктo тaкaя вaнгa" и дeмoнcтpaтивнo пoшeл pиcoвaть пyзыpь c 3000 нa 10000 в oднy вoлнy, пpoбив шecтepкy кaк мacлo. Bce тaки мы бyдeм тecтиpoвaть $6000, пpaвдa cвepxy ). Mдa. O чeм этo нaм гoвopит?

Биткoин пpoдeмoнcтpиpoвaл, чтo oн cильнo пepeпpoдaн. (Кxм, eщe бы, cидя пoчти вepxoм нa нeдeльнoй мa200....). Ecли экcтpaпoливaть тo, чтo ceйчac пpoиcxoдит нa бyдyщee, тo нe cлoжнo пpeдcтaвить, чтo ceйчac этo тoлькo eдиничкa eдинички, a пoтoм бyдyт тpoйки... И пятepки... Hy тo ecть этoт cкaчoк - пpocтo пpыщик нa жoпe бyдyщeгo cлoнa.

Eщe Биткoин cкaзaл, ктo бyит шopтить, ocтaнeтcя бeз тpycoв.

Кopoчe. Moe нoвoe мнeниe - $10k, пoтoм $6k. Ho этo нe тoчнo! ))