Analysis

[figmentofmyass]

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

[1715292022]

1715292022

[1715292022]

1715292022

[drays]

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

Interesting... The "supply evaporated" phrase triggered my old suspicions again

Did it look like the supply was there and suddenly disappeared because someone is playing, or do you think this rise looks natural?

I am not a fan of conspiration theories, but this strange premature, uninterrupted and unexplained rise is making me a bit nervous.

P.S. Unrelated - I like masterluk's sense of humor and self-irony, he seems to be a interesting person. In Russian it all sounds better, as always

[prophetx]

"In general, between the girls, I'm tired of it all.  Forecasts are not the same for me, I do them without the former grasp and vision.  Fattered, settled Vanga ...

But to be honest, according to the latest market situation, I can say that the short-term bearish picture again suddenly deteriorates.  Just wanted to say it."

it seems so. just like the failed h&s setup off $9100 last month, this correction failed to trigger a bearish reversal. the possibility for significant downside was there......but supply evaporated and bulls took over again. and now we've trapped lots of sellers in the $9000s-$11000s.

onward to $17000 now? maybe some sideways first.

Interesting... The "supply evaporated" phrase triggered my old suspicions again

Did it look like the supply was there and suddenly disappeared because someone is playing, or do you think this rise looks natural?

I am not a fan of conspiration theories, but this strange premature, uninterrupted and unexplained rise is making me a bit nervous.

P.S. Unrelated - I like masterluk's sense of humor and self-irony, he seems to be a interesting person. In Russian it all sounds better, as always

It’s only unexplained if you are missing information. It’s not premature it’s just faster than what people are used to

[Andergriff]

New post.

Tpeyгoльник длинoй 2-3 гoдa? Peaльнo! Peaльнo cкyчнo...

Translated:

Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

[figmentofmyass]

New post.

Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

it reminds me of the triangle masterluc drew here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.msg2942495#msg2942495

back then we thought there was a long sideways coming too, but really we were just 2 months away from the launch of another bubble.

it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

[exstasie]

This triangle idea doesn't fit with his previous EW wave count: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/

If you press "play" you can see the published idea has played out perfectly so far. I wonder which prediction he prefers because they seem markedly different. Would love some more context.....

[Wexlike]

New post.

Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

To see a non-logarithmic chart from Masterluc is quite a rare sight ? I think there is just no more time to go back to the $4k bar just a blink of an eye away from the halving.

I just think this is a really bad forecast.

[jadenunderhill]

New post.

Is the triangle 2-3 years long? Really! Really boring ...

it's hard to imagine reaching the $4000s from here and tbh the proportions of that triangle don't look ideal. i reckon it will be invalidated in time.

To see a non-logarithmic chart from Masterluc is quite a rare sight ? I think there is just no more time to go back to the $4k bar just a blink of an eye away from the halving.

I just think this is a really bad forecast.

Sad but true

[cAPSLOCK]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.


There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

[exstasie]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.

There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

Another visit to the 200-MA, seriously!? That idea reminds me of early 2016 when all the late bulls thought they could buy the $200s again. They were all left behind.

Bizarre proportions on that triangle too. Did he stop practicing EW?

[Wexlike]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.

There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

Another visit to the 200-MA, seriously!? That idea reminds me of early 2016 when all the late bulls thought they could buy the $200s again. They were all left behind.

Bizarre proportions on that triangle too. Did he stop practicing EW?

That is the problem with Masterluc. Half of his predictions are so fucking on point one could think he can see the future, and the others are just so incredibly bad. Nevertheless, I still lvoe to read his analysis and thoughts.

[Bossian]

Seems like he is reading these posts again?

Taм нeдeльнaя мa200 y нac нa 4000 cидит. Я дyмaю пocлe oтcкoкa мы тaки мoжeм ee нaвecтить. Hy и этo впиcывaeтcя в кapтинкy вышe.


There we have a weekly ma200 for 4000 sitting. I think after the bounce we can still visit her. Well, that fits into the picture above.

A rally to 9.2k area is very possible in the short term (next few weeks).
4k-ish target should be reached or not very far next year with the zigzag ABC correction in action.

Signing in to this thread, very interesting even though Masterluc is no longer posting now, please update if you have new posts from him from Twitter or similar media.

[Andergriff]

New post:

Oтcкoк дyмaю зaкoнчилcя, мoжeм тaки нaвecтить нeдeльнyю мa200 @5261

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

[Wexlike]

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

When this:



turns into this:



you realize that everyone is just human.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/

[windjc]

I think the bounce is over, we can still visit the weekly ma200 @ 5261

When this:



turns into this:



you realize that everyone is just human.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ybv5PkjN-Almost-at-resistance/

Yeah, he has been off his game since 2015 really.

[kellrobinson]

In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.

[Wexlike]

*skip*
https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/
*skip*

Well done, enjoyable read!

Especially enjoyed your chart with the mapping on a possible bubble top for the next run-up after the halving:

[dragonvslinux]

In December 2018 masterluc wrote on his PentarhUdi trandingview account that bitcoin was
" leaving straight-style log trend while continue to grow in SQRT-style trend"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/


This is well worth pursuing.  But I don't think Tradingview has the right tools for it. Masterluc just glommed a couple of vague swoopy curved lines on the chart.  Yet we can do much better.

I went to bitcoincharts(dot)com to download the price history for Mt Gox and Bitstamp, and concatenated them in a LibreOffice Calc spreadsheet for a continuous price history going back to 2010.
Then I ran iterated quadratic regressions.  The parabola has a horizontal axis of course, which means treating time as a function of price.  Once you get the quadratic, easy enough to solve it, giving a conventional graph with price as a function of time.
results here

https://hardworkandlowpay.wordpress.com/charts/

After deriving the parabola for the line of support (red on the chart), I found that by shifting that curve 45 months in time, it just touched the last two big blow-off tops; you can see this line in green on the chart.  The two parabolas are essentially identical, sharing the same axis and focal length.  The nested parabolas never intersect.

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).



My only criticism is that they should of used smaller arrows to draw the lines 

[exstasie]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.



I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.