[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[knybe]

oh well… it's fun to fantasize about a big fat Ken Xmas bonus.

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[mannybitcoins]

What does everyone think about this address:


https://blockchain.info/address/13NA7X1u18CgGa7RzTDyvuuoLJtLRvXgke?offset=450&filter=0

Look at the date of the first transaction (September 9, 2013), and the press release dates are Sept. 4, and Sept. 9

so weird I was just getting ready to post a speculation about that very address…

are you implying that this address is connected to ACTM or eASIC in anyway?

I'm very curious as to what others think as I really have no idea. I guess I am implying that I hope it is connected.

I strongly don't believe that they're connected. While 8000btc on Sept 4 was ~$0.93M (which is roughly what our NRE cost), in ZumZero's quote above Ken mentioned converting the NRE funds from bitcoin into fiat (and like is said in that same quote, a few weeks from early august would be late august early september when the NRE was actually paid would fit with the current timeline of us being in low-volume production and a week or two away from high volume production). Though if there was a way to "backtrace" the 8000btc, we could see if it came from bitfunder or btct addresses which would lend credence to a connection.

I tried backtracking the first transaction address, and it looks like it gets payments from the BTCGuild address, which is where Team AMC mines from.

There is a shit load of miners on BTC Guild though, but whoever funded  13NA7X1u18CgGa7RzTDyvuuoLJtLRvXgke is a BTC Guild miner that decided to fund the "For Pierce and Paul" mining entity, which started mining shortly after the press releases, on September 21.

[zumzero]

oh well… it's fun to fantasize about a big fat Ken Xmas present.

This may not be as unlikely as one might think.  We are due backdated divs from mining and 50% profit from the first products that were shipped.

[Ozymandias]

oh well… it's fun to fantasize about a big fat Ken Xmas present.

This may not be as unlikely as one might think.  We are due backdated divs from mining and 50% profit from the first products that were shipped.

Lets say we'll have 46btc in our mining wallet, that will be 460 satoshi per share, I doubt we shipped more than 20-30btc worth (and even that seems a bit high to me) of miners since we were just on sample and low-volume stages of production so personally I'm not expecting anything over 600satoshi/share. It's 3-4 weeks after full production starts (so 3-4 weeks from 1-2 weeks from now) when the dividends will really start flowing.

[zumzero]

Okay, I'll sit tight. 

[Ozymandias]

Okay, I'll sit tight.  

I'm roughly as optimistic as you are, and I'm wary of overpromising and underdelivering. For the best examples, see BFL and Hashfast as overpromisers and underdeliverers and KnC and arguably bitfury as their opposites. I'd rather us quietly position ourselves as a potential market leader than lying to our customers at every step of our production process and being, deservedly, shit upon by actual customers (again, see BFL and Hashfast). The troll brigade that has the weirdest hard-on for ActM obviously don't count in the aforementioned customers so their shit spewing is both expected and frankly, adorable.

[Ozymandias]

What is with the "we"?  There is no we. Ken does not ask for your advice, my advice, our advice.
There is no we.
When you buy shares of IBM, no one asks for your opinion in terms of their marketing pans or strategic plans.

Active Mining is not some sports team where you identify as a member of the team even though you have never played sports and are not an owner.

oh well… it's fun to fantasize about a big fat Ken Xmas present.

This may not be as unlikely as one might think.  We are due backdated divs from mining and 50% profit from the first products that were shipped.

Lets say we'll have 46btc in our mining wallet, that will be 460 satoshi per share, I doubt we shipped more than 20-30btc worth (and even that seems a bit high to me) of miners since we were just on sample and low-volume stages of production so personally I'm not expecting anything over 600satoshi/share. It's 3-4 weeks after full production starts (so 3-4 weeks from 1-2 weeks from now) when the dividends will really start flowing.

Grammatical simplicity, it's easier to say 'we' than 'the active mining corporation' or 'the shareholders of the active mining corporation' or any variation of the two

[zumzero]

Here is a timeline using factual dates in bold and best case date estimates for chip development using the timetable presented by Ken on the front page of this thread.



Ken issues bullish announcement during his visit to eASIC,
and estimates two weeks for NRE to be paid                                                        26th July

Ken returns from his trip to eASIC and the Engineering firm                                     3rd August

Ken posts to say he is busy working on eASIC deal                                               4th August

NRE Funds paid                                                                                              9th August

Ken confirms NRE funds were converted 'some time ago'                                        28th August

eASIC issue press release                                                                                4th September

Avalon refund confirmed as having been received                                                 12th September

Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;                                                                    11th October

Ken announces gradual hashrate increase including 'other resources'                        30th October

Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;            1st November

Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks.                                        29th Nov - 13th  December



What I'd like to know is during the period it became apparent that our machines would never make ROI and we went back to R&D and came up with Intellihash did this create a delay?  

Or was it perhaps a part of the process which wouldn't actually affect the timetable for achieving normal chip production?

EDIT:  added hashrate increase from Ozymandias

[Ozymandias]

Here is a timeline using factual dates in bold and best case date estimates for chip development using the timetable presented by Ken on the front page of this thread.



Ken issues bullish announcement during his visit to eASIC,
and estimates two weeks for NRE to be paid                                                           26th July

Ken returns from his trip to eASIC and the Engineering firm                                     3rd August

Ken posts to say he is busy working on eASIC deal                                                 4th August

NRE Funds paid                                                                                                    9th August - 17th August (conservatism demands a range)

Ken confirms NRE funds were converted 'some time ago'                                         28th August

eASIC issue press release                                                                                    4th September

Avalon refund confirmed as having been received                                                  12th September

Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;                                                                       11th October - 18th October

Ken announces gradual hashrate increase                                                              October 30th

Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;             1st November - 8th November

--------------Delay due to Intellihash---------------------                                  

Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks (+2 for intellihash).               13th Dec - 3rd Jan


What I'd like to know is during the period it became apparent that our machines would never make ROI and we went back to R&D and came up with Intellihash did this create a delay?  

Or was it perhaps a part of the process which wouldn't actually affect the timetable for achieving normal chip production?

I've made a few corrections/suggestions and an addition. My assumption is that intellihash will set our chips back two weeks. Based on these timeframes, it actually looks like we're doing pretty well with respect to keeping on schedule

[zumzero]

Thanks, that's just what I was after!

13th December is tomorrow.   

[SebastianJu]

LorenzoMoney... is your selling offer still valid and was it 0.00075BTC per share?

[shadallion]

I'm a little unclear on when I'll be rich, someone please confirm that it's this February?

[MilkyWayMasta]

Here is a timeline using factual dates in bold and best case date estimates for chip development using the timetable presented by Ken on the front page of this thread.



Ken issues bullish announcement during his visit to eASIC,
and estimates two weeks for NRE to be paid                                                        26th July

Ken returns from his trip to eASIC and the Engineering firm                                     3rd August

Ken posts to say he is busy working on eASIC deal                                               4th August

NRE Funds paid                                                                                              9th August

Ken confirms NRE funds were converted 'some time ago'                                        28th August

eASIC issue press release                                                                                4th September

Avalon refund confirmed as having been received                                                 12th September

Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks;                                                                    11th October

Ken announces gradual hashrate increase                                                           30th October

Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process;            1st November

Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks.                                        29th Nov - 13th  December



What I'd like to know is during the period it became apparent that our machines would never make ROI and we went back to R&D and came up with Intellihash did this create a delay?  

Or was it perhaps a part of the process which wouldn't actually affect the timetable for achieving normal chip production?

EDIT:  added hashrate icrease from Ozymandias

What date are you starting from? The forecast was posted on September 19th.

What are the current plans for chip development?
ActiveMining is developing a 28nm Bitcoin mining chip using eASIC.

    Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks; November 21st
    Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process; December 12th
    Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks. January 9th - January 23th

[VolanicEruptor]

I'm a little unclear on when I'll be rich, someone please confirm that it's this February?

unconfirmed. 

[zumzero]

What date are you starting from? The forecast was posted on September 19th.

What are the current plans for chip development?
ActiveMining is developing a 28nm Bitcoin mining chip using eASIC.

    Chip samples delivered in 9 weeks; November 21st
    Low-volume chip production starting in 12 weeks, using an e-beam process; December 12th
    Normal volume chip production starting in 16-18 weeks. January 9th - January 23th

This has came up a couple of times and it has been concluded that the timetable for chip production's start date was not the date of that post but the date from payment of NRE funds.

I'm starting from 26th July as we know that is when Ken informed us that it would take two weeks for the NRE funds to be converted and paid.  

Two weeks from that is 9th August so you can apply the quoted timetable from this date.  

As I pointed out this is best case scenario however because we know that there are only 19 days separating my estimate for sample chip delivery and actually hashing with them and that building working miners from the chips isn't an instant turnaround, I'd say the estimates won't be that far from reality.  

[Ozymandias]

What date are you starting from? The forecast was posted on September 19th.

From the estimated date that the NRE was paid. The timeline starts with the NRE, not with a post on the forum.

EDIT: beaten to it

[MilkyWayMasta]

What date are you starting from? The forecast was posted on September 19th.

From the estimated date that the NRE was paid. The timeline starts with the NRE, not with a post on the forum.

Awesome, the earlier the better. Thanks for clearing that up.

[stenkross]

Most companies where I live have a few weeks off during christmas holidays.
Is not that the case in US?

If so, maybe add 2 weeks is in order.

[keepinithamsta]

I'm a little unclear on when I'll be rich, someone please confirm that it's this February?

unconfirmed.  

This information is under a NDA.

[neilol]

Most companies where I live have a few weeks off during christmas holidays.
Is not that the case in US?

If so, maybe add 2 weeks is in order.

Typically the time between Christmas and New Years is unproductive. In this year's case it's about a week.