spartan82
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June 07, 2014, 07:16:42 AM |
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Thats rich. No one so far has taken up on my offer. Do you want to?
So let's skip all the nonsense, since my money is already where my mouth is investing in this project, whereas you're all talk right now: in exactly 6 months if i am not able to receive more than 100% of the amount I put in, this has been a bad investment and you not only get to say 'told you so' but walk away with 10btc to add insult to injury, if I do indeed have more than 100%, either via dividends alone or dividends plus sales of shares, it's been a good investment and I could of done without the headache of listening to your tedious comparisons to BFL monarchs. Sounds fine to me let me know the neutral escrow Ive already laid out my terms and my motivation for them. Im not going to bet 10BTC against my own expectation that cryptx will be taken off the market at some point and/or will be forced to reimburse investors (in fiat) for a sum that exceeds IPO value (fiat denominated). Talk about putting your money with ur mouth is hey lol next time don't open your mouth and offer bets you can't handle. If you can't handle 10 would u go 5? Lol
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Puppet
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June 07, 2014, 07:19:32 AM |
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This is what Puppet is referring to:
Div Pay Day Div % Re-invest Repay 6-Jun 2.10% No Yes 13-Jun 1.95% No Yes 20-Jun 1.82% No Yes 27-Jun 1.69% No Yes 6-Jun 1.57% No Yes 4-Jul 1.46% No Yes 11-Jul 1.36% + ? Yes No 18-Jul 1.26% + ? Yes No 25-Jul 1.18% + ? Yes No
exactly, but there is one more thing: people here seem to think dwindling divs is ok because the share price will remain more or less constant or decrease at a lower rate. Of course in reality, once investors start doing some elementary school math they will realize that share value is directly correlated with future dividends and therefore will also decrease by ~7% per week without reinvestment. I wonder, is there anyone among cryptx investors who invested in gigamining 2 years ago? My guess is: no. Those people would understand by now, the rest of you will have to learn.
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cesmak
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June 07, 2014, 07:19:56 AM |
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The thing that I can't calculate into this, is the fact CryptX is selling off old hardware, not sure where this extra btc is going. Two speculations:
1, Will go to pay down loan as comes in 2, Will go to reinvestment, if this one the % decrease in div week to week should be les than 7% but without knowing numbers can't guess.
If i remeber well the sell of old hardware will repay the initial 500TH buyed to replace himself, so basically if i have understood well, the first 500TH were paying themself by the selling of the old hardware. Cryptx can confirm ?
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Puppet
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June 07, 2014, 07:25:10 AM Last edit: June 07, 2014, 07:35:12 AM by Puppet |
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Talk about putting your money with ur mouth is hey lol next time don't open your mouth and offer bets you can't handle. If you can't handle 10 would u go 5? Lol
Are you a simpleton or what? My issue is not with the height of the bet, its that Im not going to bet even a satoshi that cryptx will fare different as activemining or gigaminng, especially not when Im in fact predicting something similar is bound to happen at some point
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ujka
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June 07, 2014, 07:36:11 AM Last edit: June 07, 2014, 08:44:38 AM by ujka |
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The thing that I can't calculate into this, is the fact CryptX is selling off old hardware, not sure where this extra btc is going. Two speculations:
1, Will go to pay down loan as comes in 2, Will go to reinvestment, if this one the % decrease in div week to week should be les than 7% but without knowing numbers can't guess.
If i remeber well the sell of old hardware will repay the initial 500TH buyed to replace himself, so basically if i have understood well, the first 500TH were paying themself by the selling of the old hardware. Cryptx can confirm ? CryptX is busy doing deals for petamine (hope good deals, as always Edit: deleted my answer, because now I'm not so clear on this.
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ujka
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June 07, 2014, 07:44:51 AM |
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So, no bet.
Well, i have to say that I've already received more than I put in: 50% in dividends, the rest by trading, with the help of some 'weak hands' there on exchanges, that dumped cheap few times. Free ride now.
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Puppet
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June 07, 2014, 10:09:08 AM |
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Made some pretty charts for you all. First, the network growth assumption I used. I based it on current 7%/ week growth and assumed it will decelerate by 3% / week virtually grinding to a halt by the end of the year. Pretty optimistic IMO, especially for the next 3-6 months which matter most, but here' goes: So what happens to your cryptx shares in that scenario with no reinvestments, and assuming constant hosting costs: After ~42 weeks mining revenue isnt enough anymore to pay for the hosting costs and the sum of all dividends will have peaked at 0.051 BTC. Of course thats ignoring the loan that amounts to a little over 0.01 BTC/share so actual dividends would peak at ~0.04 BTC if your dividends wherent hijacked for reinvestments. Speaking of which; if this round is not profitable, chances are the next rounds wont be either. In fact given cryptx' electricity costs and the rise of asic vendor private mines, I strongly suspect future rounds will be even worse rather than better. Either way, reinvesting will stretch the losses over a longer time but you end up with an even deeper pit unless you believe future investments will end up being > 2x as profitable than the current ones.
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spartan82
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June 07, 2014, 10:10:26 AM |
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From the quiet words of young jeezy- scared money don't make no money!
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Puppet
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June 07, 2014, 10:35:38 AM |
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From the quiet words of young jeezy- scared money don't make no money!
From the louder words of an older bitcoin veteran: cold storage wallets dont lose no bitcoins. Almost everything else does, especially mining securities.
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_biO_
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June 07, 2014, 10:58:40 AM |
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Now go back to december 2013 and use the data that was available at that time to make a similar forecast and see where that lands you.
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This signature refers to itself.
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BiteMyShinyMetalAss
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June 07, 2014, 11:16:52 AM |
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Troll and thats it. Puppet, why are you in this forum waisting your energy surelly you can be making money somewhere else? Saving the world? Saving money of poor people who might invest? Look at the "normal" companies and how much dividend they pay, even 10-30% annual dividend is really good return.
What you are effectivelly saying is that mining is unprofitable and is bound to collapse unless you make your own hardware. Hence according to you, everyone should stop mining and let it do to the companies producing hardware. Instead buy bitcoins and put in the paper wallets. Oh, i forgot, there was this guy, bcmine, and then he dissappeared and puppet came! Nice! Why dont you explain us again how cex.io is better than cryptx?
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Puppet
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June 07, 2014, 11:36:39 AM |
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Look at the "normal" companies and how much dividend they pay, even 10-30% annual dividend is really good return.
What "normal" companies have assets that devaluate on average by 7% per week? That is 3300% per year, that makes Zimbabwean hyperinflation look decidedly mild. What you are effectivelly saying is that mining is unprofitable and is bound to collapse unless you make your own hardware.
Im not saying anything will collapse, other than your bitcoin wallet. Nor am I suggesting in any way that cex.io is better. And Im not even suggesting anyone stop mining, I suggest you think before you invest more precious bitcoins in mining. BTW, you think it is coincidence virtually everyone arguing against me here has been around for less than 6 months ? People who have been around for years have seen this movie several times before and know how it ends. Sorry to be such a spoiler.
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EdoBcn
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June 07, 2014, 12:04:42 PM |
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yep, still here. So, assuming I purchased some shares at last available ipo price, given yesterday div and current price on marcket for the shares I paid, would everyone agree I should be happy, or that I'm screwed? Oh wait, lots of people here entered at first ipo at 0.05, so still 50% profit for the shares, without counting the div accumulated until now. So yes, those guys are still very profitable. hum, it looks like the market decided that each share should be valued arount 0.075. So big mistake in first ipo and new ipo (under and over). anyway, it will take quite some time to see this operation collapsing, if ever. Nothing to fear for the next few months. I may come back 2.x% weekly, not bad
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oma5
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June 07, 2014, 12:09:11 PM |
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Impressive dividend. If you aren't withdrawing divs from havelock, nor reinvesting them it might make sense to stick some bids up you can put them low on the off-chance they get filled. Better than leaving them on wallet doing nothing More buy support is never a bad look Agreed!
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kenmomotaro
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June 07, 2014, 12:25:19 PM |
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Now go back to december 2013 and use the data that was available at that time to make a similar forecast and see where that lands you.
Agree this, we are at worse position when Dec 2013 than now. Dec 2013: Late delivery, expensive Ghs, high hosting fee, 20%+ difficulty increase. Now: Immediate delivery from Bitfury. The most cheap and most efficiency hardware. 37.5% reduce in hosting fee. 12%+ difficulty increase. All these factors now getting better and still some trolls say Petamine is going to doom. We've been through all these shit and we are still here, 50% more than initial ipo 0.05.
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stompysteve
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June 07, 2014, 12:34:51 PM |
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Why post charts where it shows we die in 10 weeks but fail to mention we will start reinvestment at some point
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ujka
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June 07, 2014, 12:53:35 PM |
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In those charts he charted the whole profit as dividends, no reinvestment. He did mention that 'reinvesting will stretch the losses over a longer time'.
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ujka
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June 07, 2014, 12:59:28 PM |
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It seems to me that this way of getting new hardware (loan from CryptX, buying a big chunk of new hardware at once, then paying back the loan) is better than buying few miners every week. Will CryptX be able, and willing to do that again in 6 weeks when this loan is paid back?
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NotLambchop
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June 07, 2014, 01:04:01 PM |
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It seems to me that this way of getting new hardware (loan from CryptX, buying a big chunk of new hardware at once, then paying back the loan) is better than buying few miners every week. Will CryptX be able, and willing to do that again in 6 weeks when this loan is paid back?
~ujka discovers the wonders of living on borrowed money~
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ujka
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June 07, 2014, 01:54:32 PM |
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That's what the former Chief of Tax Administration in my contry said: what would you rather - be saving money for all your life and buy a yacht when old, or take a loan and buy a yacht and enjoy on it now?
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