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Author Topic: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live!  (Read 299821 times)
deisik
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February 03, 2019, 07:12:50 AM
 #8041

This is classic and I bet you a lot of people have experienced the same thing before. I usually configure a auto bet configuration, but the added cost to add the jackpots will clean you out in a matter of minutes if you not careful.

This is why I want Wetsuit to add a feature to separate your investment and gambling budget from your total bitcoins on the site. <To prevent you from accidently using those funds, but I guess he knows this happens and he has no problems with that.>   

Haha, I'm not surprised! And the chances of striking a 8,888 is pretty much like 1 in a million. Even rarer than those bet IDs ending with postfixes/ prefixes

That's not the case

Well, technically, I don't know how it is with Bitcoin betting at FreeBitco.in but with its sibling (the one where you bet with doges) I hit jackpot pretty regularly in the past. Maybe it is different there, maybe it was different back in the day. Anyway, the odds are easy to check. You run an auto-bet like 99999 times with the minimum amount (not changing it on either win or loss) and see how often you will hit it (that won't cost you much). If odds are skewed (that will be easy to see), then you can start asking questions here

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February 03, 2019, 07:29:56 AM
 #8042

That's not the case

Well, technically, I don't know how it is with Bitcoin betting at FreeBitco.in but with its sibling (the one where you bet with doges) I hit jackpot pretty regularly in the past. Maybe it is different there, maybe it was different back in the day. Anyway, the odds are easy to check. You run an auto-bet like 99999 times with the minimum amount (not changing it on either win or loss) and see how often you will hit it (that won't cost you much). If odds are skewed (that will be easy to see), then you can start asking questions here

Grats on your win at Doge. I haven't tried multiplying on Doge, would do it soon.

But running the auto thingy for 99999 times, is there a way to track those 8888 numbers? Since I definitely won't spend time watching those rolls.
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February 03, 2019, 08:44:39 AM
 #8043

For example, your 0.3 btc / 30 mil satoshi, say you are betting on 0.4% win chance or 237.50 odd. How big was the losing you've got at the time you were bursted? if you were able to scale this amount to withstand around 2800 losing streak, it is likely you would win in between

I've written about that above

To repeat, you either earn dust with losing streaks that are too long or end up burst pretty soon. I guess with 0.4% win chance and a losing streak of 2800, it would be equal to a win chance of 0.4x100=40% and a losing streak of 2800/100=28 rolls. But 28 losing rolls is not worth the risk as at any point you risk your whole amount while earning only dust when you win. Basically, no matter how you tweak the odds and amounts, it can always be reduced to these simple numbers (to make things easier to understand)

It can't be guessed, you have to experience it by play for real and study the system from it real outcome. This system you can't reduce any percentage to another percentage by ratio, the most important part is: some numbers tend to repeat itself more than other number for example, this come from my real statistic summarization: 9975 would appear much much more frequent than 9976 or 9974, 9999 would appear much more frequent than 10000 and 8888 would appear the least frequent, i see 10000 appear few times but not any matching count of 8888 in the collected statistic (~ 20millions result).
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February 03, 2019, 09:45:13 AM
Last edit: February 03, 2019, 10:58:05 AM by deisik
 #8044

That's not the case

Well, technically, I don't know how it is with Bitcoin betting at FreeBitco.in but with its sibling (the one where you bet with doges) I hit jackpot pretty regularly in the past. Maybe it is different there, maybe it was different back in the day. Anyway, the odds are easy to check. You run an auto-bet like 99999 times with the minimum amount (not changing it on either win or loss) and see how often you will hit it (that won't cost you much). If odds are skewed (that will be easy to see), then you can start asking questions here

Grats on your win at Doge. I haven't tried multiplying on Doge, would do it soon.

But running the auto thingy for 99999 times, is there a way to track those 8888 numbers? Since I definitely won't spend time watching those rolls

This is a really lame excuse you could ever come up with

As you don't need to track "those 8888 numbers" at all. If you hit the jackpot in the process, your balance will be increased immediately. The house edge is known, it is equal to 5%, and with so many rolls there will be very little variance. Therefore, if you wager 1 satoshi at each roll, your losses should be around 5000 satoshi on 99999 rolls. The jackpot cost is also known (with the lowest being 2 satoshi), so the whole thing will cost you around 205k satoshi minus the jackpots you may hit along the way. So more power to you in your testing journey (though don't forget to share your results here)

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February 03, 2019, 10:33:49 AM
 #8045

The house edge is known, it is equal to 5%, and with so many rolls there will be very little variance.

I don't see why anyone would play thousands of bets on auto mode with a 5% house edge...

The most numerous the bets the more important the house edge becomes.
Don't do drugs kids,  do maths. Not meth.

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February 03, 2019, 10:53:01 AM
 #8046

The house edge is known, it is equal to 5%, and with so many rolls there will be very little variance.

I don't see why anyone would play thousands of bets on auto mode with a 5% house edge...

The most numerous the bets the more important the house edge becomes.
Don't do drugs kids,  do maths. Not meth.

Care to read what the whole thing is about?

Do read, not write. Or at the very least, read first, write later if you can't help writing (and try to understand in between what the point in question is). This is not about playing thousands of bets for its own sake or whatever you might think of, it is about finding out the odds of hitting jackpot, the thing which you chose to ignore but didn't ignore to write your "wise" comment here

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Betwrong
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February 03, 2019, 01:43:56 PM
 #8047

For example, your 0.3 btc / 30 mil satoshi, say you are betting on 0.4% win chance or 237.50 odd. How big was the losing you've got at the time you were bursted? if you were able to scale this amount to withstand around 2800 losing streak, it is likely you would win in between

I've written about that above

To repeat, you either earn dust with losing streaks that are too long or end up burst pretty soon. I guess with 0.4% win chance and a losing streak of 2800, it would be equal to a win chance of 0.4x100=40% and a losing streak of 2800/100=28 rolls. But 28 losing rolls is not worth the risk as at any point you risk your whole amount while earning only dust when you win. Basically, no matter how you tweak the odds and amounts, it can always be reduced to these simple numbers (to make things easier to understand)

It can't be guessed, you have to experience it by play for real and study the system from it real outcome. This system you can't reduce any percentage to another percentage by ratio, the most important part is: some numbers tend to repeat itself more than other number for example, this come from my real statistic summarization: 9975 would appear much much more frequent than 9976 or 9974, 9999 would appear much more frequent than 10000 and 8888 would appear the least frequent, i see 10000 appear few times but not any matching count of 8888 in the collected statistic (~ 20millions result).

I hope you understand that that was just a coincidence. If you were conducting your study on physical dice you could probably come up with some useful data because indeed physical dice, due to their imperfection, can land on one side more frequently than on the other. But math is perfect,  and since all the game in question is based on it, all outcomes have equal probability.

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deisik
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February 03, 2019, 03:41:38 PM
 #8048

I've written about that above

To repeat, you either earn dust with losing streaks that are too long or end up burst pretty soon. I guess with 0.4% win chance and a losing streak of 2800, it would be equal to a win chance of 0.4x100=40% and a losing streak of 2800/100=28 rolls. But 28 losing rolls is not worth the risk as at any point you risk your whole amount while earning only dust when you win. Basically, no matter how you tweak the odds and amounts, it can always be reduced to these simple numbers (to make things easier to understand)

It can't be guessed, you have to experience it by play for real and study the system from it real outcome. This system you can't reduce any percentage to another percentage by ratio, the most important part is: some numbers tend to repeat itself more than other number for example, this come from my real statistic summarization: 9975 would appear much much more frequent than 9976 or 9974, 9999 would appear much more frequent than 10000 and 8888 would appear the least frequent, i see 10000 appear few times but not any matching count of 8888 in the collected statistic (~ 20millions result).

I hope you understand that that was just a coincidence. If you were conducting your study on physical dice you could probably come up with some useful data because indeed physical dice, due to their imperfection, can land on one side more frequently than on the other. But math is perfect,  and since all the game in question is based on it, all outcomes have equal probability

Well, that in fact remains to be seen

I don't mean to say that the case described here has anything to do with what I speak of further, but it is in fact a real problem with "math being perfect" as in real life it is far from being perfect. In real life we are dealing with physical devices like random number generators which may or may not be entirely random (as with physical dice you refer to in your post). And I'm not even speaking of purely software ones which are called pseudo-random for a reason

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February 03, 2019, 11:01:13 PM
 #8049

There is no chain of reaction on betting. Each bet is individual which something gamblers try to deny as hard as possible. 8888 is 1 in 10000 chance of hitting, it is 1 in chance of hitting on your first ever bet and on your 10000th bet it is still 1 in 10000 chance. There is no chain betting that will allow you to finally hit that. You can hit 8888 on your first ever bet or you may not hit it on your 100kth bet.

There is no way of playing long enough to eventually hit it. However, the only reason people think its possible is that if you play long enough you create yourself more 1 in 10000 chances than just one. Same applies to people who gamble martingale for example, they think they can't lose 10 times in a row but your 10th loss is actually still %50 loss chance and not lower.

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February 04, 2019, 04:28:24 AM
Merited by Betwrong (1)
 #8050

Well, that in fact remains to be seen

I don't mean to say that the case described here has anything to do with what I speak of further, but it is in fact a real problem with "math being perfect" as in real life it is far from being perfect. In real life we are dealing with physical devices like random number generators which may or may not be entirely random (as with physical dice you refer to in your post). And I'm not even speaking of purely software ones which are called pseudo-random for a reason

What is usually missed about random seed generators is that if they were not random they would be predictable and if anyone was to work that out they would be able to exploit the Casino.


There is no chain of reaction on betting. Each bet is individual which something gamblers try to deny as hard as possible. 8888 is 1 in 10000 chance of hitting, it is 1 in chance of hitting on your first ever bet and on your 10000th bet it is still 1 in 10000 chance. There is no chain betting that will allow you to finally hit that. You can hit 8888 on your first ever bet or you may not hit it on your 100kth bet.

There is no way of playing long enough to eventually hit it. However, the only reason people think its possible is that if you play long enough you create yourself more 1 in 10000 chances than just one. Same applies to people who gamble martingale for example, they think they can't lose 10 times in a row but your 10th loss is actually still %50 loss chance and not lower.

Exactly. The chances of hitting the jackpot are precisely 10000:1 every time you roll. Running any sort of test to try and prove that will only confirm the existence of variance however large your sample size is.

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February 04, 2019, 04:46:30 AM
Last edit: February 04, 2019, 06:38:03 AM by deisik
 #8051

There is no chain of reaction on betting. Each bet is individual which something gamblers try to deny as hard as possible. 8888 is 1 in 10000 chance of hitting, it is 1 in chance of hitting on your first ever bet and on your 10000th bet it is still 1 in 10000 chance. There is no chain betting that will allow you to finally hit that. You can hit 8888 on your first ever bet or you may not hit it on your 100kth bet.

There is no way of playing long enough to eventually hit it. However, the only reason people think its possible is that if you play long enough you create yourself more 1 in 10000 chances than just one. Same applies to people who gamble martingale for example, they think they can't lose 10 times in a row but your 10th loss is actually still %50 loss chance and not lower.

Do math, not meth

The longer you play, the higher are your chances to eventually hit the jackpot, even if the outcomes of individual rolls are independent of each other. It is the same with martingale, i.e. the longer you play, the sooner you will hit a losing streak that will wipe away your account (actually, not sooner but you get the point). Otherwise it wouldn't be a losing strategy, as simple as it gets. But that's not the point here. If you had been using FreeBitco.in long enough, you would have known that your chances of hitting 8888 may be a little bit different from 1:10000

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..PROFITBOX..
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February 04, 2019, 04:53:21 AM
 #8052

If you had been using FreeBitco.in long enough, you would have known that your chances of hitting 8888 may be a little bit different from 1:10000

That is simply untrue.

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February 04, 2019, 06:35:37 AM
 #8053

If you had been using FreeBitco.in long enough, you would have known that your chances of hitting 8888 may be a little bit different from 1:10000

That is simply untrue

Strictly speaking, I don't know about the jackpot

And when I was playing at FreeDoge I didn't notice any discrepancies or inconsistencies in this regard, so it may well be the same with FreeBitco. But I remember discussion in this very thread a couple years ago when people calculated the chances of hitting high numbers and they were far from what you would expect out of a uniform distribution

In other words, your odds of hitting 10000 are far from being 1:10000 (as you would intuitively expect). I rolled a zillion times myself and never hit the two highest numbers. So, you know, you wouldn't actually be surprised to see something like that with the jackpot as well. If anyone wants to check how things really are, you are welcome

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February 04, 2019, 07:11:41 AM
 #8054

In other words, your odds of hitting 10000 are far from being 1:10000 (as you would intuitively expect). I rolled a zillion times myself and never hit the two highest numbers. So, you know, you wouldn't actually be surprised to see something like that with the jackpot as well. If anyone wants to check how things really are, you are welcome

The odds of hitting 10000 are actually 20000:1 due to rounding. The possible outcomes are not 1 to 10000 they are 0 to 10000 with 0 and 10000 having half the chance being rolled than all the other numbers. Have a look at the how the rolls are calculated section on the provably fair tab.
As for the endless discussions from people saying it can't be fair because they didn't roll it in xxx attempts, that is just crying about variance.

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February 04, 2019, 07:49:45 AM
 #8055

This is classic and I bet you a lot of people have experienced the same thing before. I usually configure a auto bet configuration, but the added cost to add the jackpots will clean you out in a matter of minutes if you not careful.

This is why I want Wetsuit to add a feature to separate your investment and gambling budget from your total bitcoins on the site. <To prevent you from accidently using those funds, but I guess he knows this happens and he has no problems with that.>  

Haha, I'm not surprised! And the chances of striking a 8,888 is pretty much like 1 in a million. Even rarer than those bet IDs ending with postfixes/ prefixes.

That's a great idea, let's see what Quin says about this. But still, there are those who get triggered during a losing streak and immediately withdraw their investment funds Grin

Really? I thought the chances for the jackpot hit is 1 in 10,000? Because isn't that just the only requirement, to hit 8888? I've seen plenty of 7777... although, come to think of it, I don't recall ever hitting any of the big bonuses in freerolls, when the 9995 and above should really mean 5 in 10,000 or 1 in 2000 or do the freeroll odds play differently? Just never thought about it actually!

Edge only matters in Multiply, not jackpot or freeroll right?

Edit: just saw the reply above mine. So now I know, 1 in 20,000. Seems okay Tongue

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February 04, 2019, 08:36:17 AM
 #8056

To get the Jackpot 08888 is not difficult as long as you want to try it on each account.
In a way :
1. Deposit the 30K satosi balance
2. Play multiply by copying the Jackpot table
3, If 3 x of the game has not been obtained, then move the balance to the next account.

And in this way, 95% succeed, unless (TheQuin) considers it a cheating game. and what happens is the account will be blocked
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February 04, 2019, 08:50:06 AM
 #8057

Hi TheQuin, in which country do you live in.

If you don't mind, please PM
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February 04, 2019, 09:28:37 AM
 #8058

In other words, your odds of hitting 10000 are far from being 1:10000 (as you would intuitively expect). I rolled a zillion times myself and never hit the two highest numbers. So, you know, you wouldn't actually be surprised to see something like that with the jackpot as well. If anyone wants to check how things really are, you are welcome

The odds of hitting 10000 are actually 20000:1 due to rounding. The possible outcomes are not 1 to 10000 they are 0 to 10000 with 0 and 10000 having half the chance being rolled than all the other numbers. Have a look at the how the rolls are calculated section on the provably fair tab.
As for the endless discussions from people saying it can't be fair because they didn't roll it in xxx attempts, that is just crying about variance

I actually hit 0 once

But I didn't hit 10k or the second best tier ever. I'm not crying as I don't roll as often as I used to a few years ago. All in all, it can be said that I don't particularly care. Just in case, when people discussed this issue in the past, it didn't look like they were crying either. And I don't remember wetsuit coming up with a rebuttal or anything to that tune, so it was kinda accepted. Anyway, if anyone is curious beyond just idle talk, the thread is not self-moderated, thus you can find all the relevant posts on this topic here

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February 04, 2019, 10:33:08 AM
 #8059

For example, your 0.3 btc / 30 mil satoshi, say you are betting on 0.4% win chance or 237.50 odd. How big was the losing you've got at the time you were bursted? if you were able to scale this amount to withstand around 2800 losing streak, it is likely you would win in between

I've written about that above

To repeat, you either earn dust with losing streaks that are too long or end up burst pretty soon. I guess with 0.4% win chance and a losing streak of 2800, it would be equal to a win chance of 0.4x100=40% and a losing streak of 2800/100=28 rolls. But 28 losing rolls is not worth the risk as at any point you risk your whole amount while earning only dust when you win. Basically, no matter how you tweak the odds and amounts, it can always be reduced to these simple numbers (to make things easier to understand)

I agree with your calculations. Personally, I see it exactly like this. If you have, say, 0.01 on your balance, you can bet it all at once with 94.06% win chance and get 0.0001 in the case of winning(on a dice site with house edge as it is on Freebitco.in). Or you can do classic martingale with 1 satoshi as initial bet and you'll get approximately 0.0001 in profit after 100,000 rolls or so, but your chances of succeeding in that are exactly the same as with betting 0.01 at once with 94.06% win chance.

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February 04, 2019, 02:01:29 PM
 #8060

To get the Jackpot 08888 is not difficult as long as you want to try it on each account.
In a way :
1. Deposit the 30K satosi balance
2. Play multiply by copying the Jackpot table
3, If 3 x of the game has not been obtained, then move the balance to the next account.

And in this way, 95% succeed, unless (TheQuin) considers it a cheating game. and what happens is the account will be blocked
The odds for you to win the jackpot will always remain the same which is 1:10000 cmiiw. Changing accounts won't increase your chances of winning if hitting the jackpot was that easy then the site would've lost a lot of money by now. And multi accounting is not allowed (it's stated in their terms) they're mostly used to abuse the site.

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