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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 115644 times)
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SlipperySlope
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November 13, 2013, 10:37:41 PM
 #121

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

Second, my post is about using a logistic function to model bitcoin prices. Perhaps your reasoning is shallow, e.g. drawing wrong conclusions at a glance. There is an excellent Wikipedia article that explains what a logistic function is - and explains its many uses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.
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November 13, 2013, 10:52:43 PM
 #122

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

And with the freedom my wealth will afford me,  I can help build a better world where wealth is irrelevant.

Concrete details please?

Because I've heard that nonsense many times and it never works out once we discuss the details. It is always some uneconomic delusion you are feeding yourself.

Tell me how? Enlighten me.

By not seeing life with your negative attitude.

But to be honest, I don't know yet, I'm only 21, and I'm not at that stage in my life. Right now I'm learning. Economically speaking, it should be a simple matter of investing in things that will return more energy than that put in to create such an energy harvester. Who knows, maybe a solar harvester in orbit that can focus energy here, or I can fund research into asteroid mining. Perhaps I can work in neuroscience and help advance AI to the point that we can solve the problems we face today with greater ease.

What are you doing to make this place a better place?

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BitchicksHusband
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November 13, 2013, 10:55:31 PM
 #123

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 1 million, 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

And SlipperySlope, thank you very much for the graphs.  They are extremely enlightening.

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November 13, 2013, 10:58:08 PM
 #124

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

Second, my post is about using a logistic function to model bitcoin prices. Perhaps your reasoning is shallow, e.g. drawing wrong conclusions at a glance. There is an excellent Wikipedia article that explains what a logistic function is - and explains its many uses.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.

Indeed adoption of new technologies is usually logistic.

However, this assumes the technology is not threatening to society-at-large, which I have reasoned Bitcoin is.

Thus I am expecting is an unstable exponential growth, with a waterfall crash which is what we see in market speculation, not technology adoption.

Market speculation is identified characteristically by greed instead adoption of technology for personal use and efficiency.

I recently tried to buy some BTC anonymously and found out just how inefficient the process is (as in an entire day lost over $110 purchase).

Sorry but I am not hijacking, I am correcting your myopia.

If you want to talk math, I minored in math. No problem.

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November 13, 2013, 10:59:40 PM
 #125

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

Wealth is not what you pay bills with, that is salary or income. If you are wealthy, personal expenses are irrelevant.

To become and remain wealthy, what you are producing for society has to be outsized the average in value.

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November 13, 2013, 11:06:30 PM
 #126

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

And with the freedom my wealth will afford me,  I can help build a better world where wealth is irrelevant.

Concrete details please?

Because I've heard that nonsense many times and it never works out once we discuss the details. It is always some uneconomic delusion you are feeding yourself.

Tell me how? Enlighten me.

By not seeing life with your negative attitude.

But to be honest, I don't know yet, I'm only 21, and I'm not at that stage in my life. Right now I'm learning. Economically speaking, it should be a simple matter of investing in things that will return more energy than that put in to create such an energy harvester. Who knows, maybe a solar harvester in orbit that can focus energy here, or I can fund research into asteroid mining. Perhaps I can work in neuroscience and help advance AI to the point that we can solve the problems we face today with greater ease.

What are you doing to make this place a better place?

As I expected the usual perpetual motion delusions. Thanks for being honest.

You will soon see what I am doing. And I really need to stop talking.

So try to be fair if I am not around here to defend myself tit-for-tat.

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November 13, 2013, 11:12:31 PM
 #127

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.
If you want to talk math, I have a minor in math. No problem.
Great!

My university degree is in applied mathematics. Please explain with what math you learned why a logistic function is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
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November 13, 2013, 11:15:00 PM
 #128

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

Wealth is not what you pay bills with, that is salary or income. If you are wealthy, personal expenses are irrelevant.

To become and remain wealthy, what you are producing for society has to be outsized the average in value.

Huh? 

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November 13, 2013, 11:16:08 PM
 #129

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.


+1 Agreed.  Bring it to the appropriate thread. You (Anony) obviously have important thinking to share. I've read some of your writing, and you do raise many points worth exploring.

However, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish in general. You come across as confused, desperate for attention, paranoid and perhaps mentally unstable - and you are pissing people off left and right.
Is that what you are going for? I doubt it.

IMHO... (you did not ask, but here goes)

If you are trying to influence, you have a lot learn. I'm pretty forgiving, open minded, usually curious about new arguments,  but I'm already tired of your juvenile BS and blustery arrogance. Get over it and maybe you can actually be helpful to folks here.

If you are trying to extrovert your thoughts to get clearer yourself - which is what you have said-  I suggest you stay in the right thread, and at least be respectful - if you want to attract real thinking partners. Just throwing your feces around, showing off your "intelligence" does not help anybody, and just makes you more alienated than before.

Good luck.

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November 13, 2013, 11:19:58 PM
 #130

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

And with the freedom my wealth will afford me,  I can help build a better world where wealth is irrelevant.

Concrete details please?

Because I've heard that nonsense many times and it never works out once we discuss the details. It is always some uneconomic delusion you are feeding yourself.

Tell me how? Enlighten me.

By not seeing life with your negative attitude.

But to be honest, I don't know yet, I'm only 21, and I'm not at that stage in my life. Right now I'm learning. Economically speaking, it should be a simple matter of investing in things that will return more energy than that put in to create such an energy harvester. Who knows, maybe a solar harvester in orbit that can focus energy here, or I can fund research into asteroid mining. Perhaps I can work in neuroscience and help advance AI to the point that we can solve the problems we face today with greater ease.

What are you doing to make this place a better place?

As I expected the usual perpetual motion delusions. Thanks for being honest.

You will soon see what I am doing. And I really need to stop talking.

So try to be fair if I am not around here to defend myself tit-for-tat.

My third sentence and multiple usage of the word "harvester" indicated that I am not referring to "perpetual energy", but energy from the sun. The source of >99% our energy.

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AnonyMint
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November 13, 2013, 11:30:56 PM
 #131

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
Seriously, if you do not understand the math I would be glad to teach it to you.
If you want to talk math, I have a minor in math. No problem.
Great!

My university degree is in applied mathematics. Please explain with what math you learned why a logistic function is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.

I just explained to you that a logistic model isn't applicable to speculation markets, yet it is applicable to bonafide technology adoption (e.g. the adoption of radio, TV, cars, cell phones, etc).

Rather in speculation markets, you see exponential growth in price, followed by a waterfall crash.

Don't conflate the adoption of crypto-currency in general (which is also a speculation and not certain) with the speculation that Bitcoin is all perfect.

Replacing a financial system that has been around for 100s of years with a new model for society requires much analysis. This is not as straightforward as the obvious benefit of a TV or cell phone. It seems the aggregate outcomes for Bitcoin are dystopian thus can't possibly be stable.

As an applied mathematician you should understand well that models are irrelevant if misapplied.

And thus I am not posting off-topic.

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November 13, 2013, 11:36:12 PM
 #132

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

Wealth is not what you pay bills with, that is salary or income. If you are wealthy, personal expenses are irrelevant.

To become and remain wealthy, what you are producing for society has to be outsized the average in value.

Huh?  

Wealthy spend only a fraction of their net worth on personal expenses, unlike non-wealthy who spend a significant percent.

If you are concerned about personal expenses, you are not in proximity of being wealthy. You will understand this if you are one day wealthy. Rpietila now understands this well.

There are some former wealthy who thought being wealthy meant increasing expenses proportionally, e.g. most NBA stars, etc..

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November 13, 2013, 11:41:36 PM
 #133

My third sentence and multiple usage of the word "harvester" indicated that I am not referring to "perpetual energy", but energy from the sun. The source of >99% our energy.

Sunlight is a very diffuse energy source and thus it is not economic compared to concentrated energy sources. I studied this. Any engineer or scientist who studies it deeply and rationally comes to the same conclusion. Popular propaganda will tell you otherwise. Peak oil, peak energy, human caused global warming, etc... are all lies and nonsense.

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November 14, 2013, 12:01:49 AM
 #134

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.
First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

+1 Agreed.  Bring it to the appropriate thread. You (Anony) obviously have important thinking to share. I've read some of your writing, and you do raise many points worth exploring.

The misapplication of the logistic function is precisely on topic to this thread.

Thus you are agreeing that you also could not comprehend.

However, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish in general. You come across as confused, desperate for attention, paranoid and perhaps mentally unstable - and you are pissing people off left and right.
Is that what you are going for? I doubt it.

Well it is par for the course, when you can't comprehend it will appear to be noise, yet if you comprehend then you realize I am none of those things.

If I am not regularly pissing stupid people off, then I am doing something wrong.

Ego is for little people

IMHO... (you did not ask, but here goes)

If you are trying to influence, you have a lot learn.

I've already influenced the world several times. I created the first full-feature WYSIWYG commercial word processor in 1986. So you can thank me (and some others) for all the nice formatting features you have in forums, HTML, word processors, etc.

I created arguably one of the worlds first million user social network back in 1999 - 2001, so you can thank me to some extent for making the precursor to friendster, myspace, and facebook.

And I wasn't trying to have influence on you here. You are irrelevant. I posted to rpietila in this thread (then a bunch of you others made stupid replies), and I got the reaction I was hoping for here from rpietila:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=331325.msg3572748#msg3572748

So for me, it was a total success.

When I do influence you, you won't even know it is me. And you will willingly give me all your money without knowing it. Or if you suspect, then you will resist, so you will be late and lose. Either way, I win.

just makes you more alienated than before.

Nice fantasy you have. I am just playing with your ignorance, like a cat toys with a piece of yarn. It is recreation as what else am I supposed to do with stupid people other than ignore them?

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November 14, 2013, 12:15:18 AM
 #135

I just explained to you that a logistic model isn't applicable to speculation markets, yet it is applicable to bonafide technology adoption.

As an applied mathematician you should understand well that models are irrelevant if misapplied.

And thus I am not posting off-topic.
I think that I understand your concern now. Obviously you agree now that an ideal logistic model does not exponentially increase without end, rather after the mid point of adoption, there is an exponential decrease in the adoption rate ...



My model attempts to fit a logistic curve to the price history of bitcoin. Stretch your mind a bit. We agree that exponential growth cannot go on forever, but how does it end for bitcoin prices?

Rather than  model the population of bitcoin technology innovation adopters, I am modelling the population of bitcoin financial speculators who transfer fiat to bitcoin. My rationale is that motivation to buy and hold bitcoins spreads through the finite population of speculators in a manner which positively depends on the size of the already-convinced speculator population, and is limited by the amount of funds that speculators are willing to transfer from fiat to bitcoin at a given bitcoin price. The logistic model has only two parameters, the adoption period (X axis above) and the maximum population size (Y axis above). I guess at the latter, i.e. what is the maximum price that speculators will pay when every convincible speculator has been convinced to buy. And I determine the adoption period by fitting the curve to the historical bitcoin price data.

Because the bitcoin price series is subject to periodic bubbles and crashes, e.g. most recently in the form of dampened oscillations, my model only suggests a likely trend for any supposed maximum bitcoin price.

Here is the shared spreadsheet that contains the model, which can be viewed - or copied and edited ... https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc
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November 14, 2013, 12:42:05 AM
 #136

Isn't the simplest way to put that is that majority of the capital has already purchased at the midpoint? Okay I realize that velocity matters too.

The problem I have with that logistic model is that it assumes that capital has only one place to go and can't leave, or that the trend has permanence (at least over the relevant timescale), e.g. some proportion of the population will own a cell phone and they won't suddenly stop owning cell phones until some distant time when cell phone is supplanted by some new evolutionary technology.

Speculation markets don't work that way especially when the trend is exponential thus implying irrational exuberance that expects perfection. There are usually unforeseen shifts in the competitive, regulatory, and business environment, and other exogenous factors.

Exponential rises in speculation markets invariably have waterfall crashes. Can you find counter-examples? For example, see Cisco and Microsoft stock price history. There is something everyone on the internet must use, routers, yet you see the exponential rise and the waterfall crash.

I don't think we will see such a waterfall collapse in Bitcoin (at least not one that doesn't recover the trend) soon.

I think the danger for Bitcoin comes when the marketcap hits $trillions. Then it will begin having effects on the viability of the $quadrillions in financial derivatives. Then the risk of dystopian outcomes increases and who knows what governments do. Also I don't think a hypothetical altcoin competitor could make an impact on Bitcoin before then (although it could make an impact on itself nearly immediately). I did the math in another post. I will go find it.

So roughly 2015 or 2016 I see potential for risk rising. We will know better as we get closer to that juncture.

EDIT: here is the link referred to above:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=332091.msg3573793#msg3573793

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stripykitteh
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November 14, 2013, 12:46:09 AM
 #137


I've already influenced the world several times. I created the first full-feature WYSIWYG commercial word processor in 1986. So you can thank me (and some others) for all the nice formatting features you have in forums, HTML, word processors, etc.


Just curious, Word for Mac came out in 1985. Did you get your dates mixed up or do you not consider it to be a "full-featured WYSIWYG commercial word processor"?

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November 14, 2013, 12:49:32 AM
 #138


I've already influenced the world several times. I created the first full-feature WYSIWYG commercial word processor in 1986. So you can thank me (and some others) for all the nice formatting features you have in forums, HTML, word processors, etc.


Just curious, Word for Mac came out in 1985. Did you get your dates mixed up or do you not consider it to be a "full-featured WYSIWYG commercial word processor"?

As far as I remember, it wasn't full-featured as what we did with WordUp at that first launch date (we combined word processing with page layout a la Ventura Publisher). But yes we are all about that time, that is why I said "and others". We were all influencing each other, e.g. Ami Professional, Ventura Publisher, etc.. Btw, I later in 1993 - 1995 worked with Lee Lorenzen the author of Ventura Publisher. And one of my co-authors (or boss) was close with Steve Jobs and works for Apple, etc..

I am listed as a contributor to CSS.

We (Mike Fulton) had the first full-featured font editor FONTZ! I personally wrote the first accelerated printer driver for laser printers employing the new RLE encoding, TurboJet.

Note I am going to delete all these posts at some point.

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November 14, 2013, 12:59:18 AM
 #139

Btw, I later worked with Lee Lorenzen the author of Ventura Publisher. And one of my co-authors (or boss) was close with Steve Jobs and works for Apple, etc..


Cool, thanks. I absolutely *loved* Ventura Publisher running on GEM. Workstation-quality software running on PC hardware. I had to switch between Word for DOS and Ventura for my work; the difference between the two was laughable.

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November 14, 2013, 01:05:00 AM
 #140

Isn't the simple way to put that is that majority of the capital has already purchased at the midpoint?
Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

I would say that at the midpoint, half of the population of convincible speculators have been convinced to buy. Rpietila has questioned just how much capital, i.e. fiat-to-bitcoin purchases are required to move the price at any given point. We need to think more about this aspect. But my intuition is that because the price is still higher past the mid-point, that the total capital input is still greater past the mid-point even as fewer speculators contribute it. My logistic model rationale is that the constraint on bitcoin price growth is that committed capital is exhausted beyond some maximum price.

Quote
The problem I have with that logistic model is that it assumes that capital has only one place to go and can't leave, or that the trend has permanence (at least over the relevant timescale), e.g. some proportion of the population will own a cell phone and they won't suddenly stop owning cell phones until some distant time when cell phone is supplanted by some new evolutionary technology.

Speculation markets don't work that way especially when the trend is exponential thus implying irrational exuberance that expects perfection. There are usually unforeseen shifts in the competitive, regulatory, and business environment, and other exogenous factors.

Exponential rises in speculation markets invariably have waterfall crashes. Can you find counter-examples? For example, see Cisco stock price. There is something everyone on the internet must use, routers, yet you see the exponential rise and the waterfall crash.

Yes, indeed these are the assumptions of the model and you illustrate its deficiencies. However, the curves I fitted demonstrate that the exponential growth, even in the most wildly bullish scenario of a $5,000,000 maximum bitcoin price, stops exponentially growing within 48 months. Because bitcoin price appreciation front-runs the underlying bitcoin economy, there will be some set of expectation-changing circumstances that end the exponential growth and mark the mid-point of speculation adoption. The factors such as those you mention might just be those expectation-changing events.

Rpietila believes that there will be a final blow-off crash at the peak bitcoin price. You may believe that bitcoin may crash way back down, but I think that the final blow-off peak will be resolved by a damped oscillation similar in shape to April-August 2013 - settling down to a bumpy plateau which will benefit the underlying bitcoin payment economy as it disrupts the current payment infrastructure.

Shaped like this ...

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